Getting to know Devon Levi

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is irrelevant. 

Levi in comparison to UPL is better at 19 than UPL was.

The thing is Levi's numbers aren't all over the place across 10 months and 2 entirely different teams

It’s not irrelevant at all, this is the problem with a small sample size, allow me to explain: 

When a prospects’ standing can be undone over the course of merely a month or so, that’s an issue. Without this FOURTEEN game sample size, what is he? For me, this is more about knowing what you don’t know: he was adjudged to be a 7th round pick. Build up enough of a sample size post draft, of course it can become irrelevant. But 14 games? What happens if Levi has a bad month? 

Another prospect, you’d point to a significant sample pre-bad stretch, generally you’d have a few seasons of provable fallback. When Levi can literally “undo” what’s being used to pump his tires, with like a month of bad play...the sample size is too small 

[mjd1001]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No he doesn’t. He’s a 7th round pick. This breakout sample size is ridiculously small 

Anyways, who’d you rather have, Reinhart to term, or Devon Levi?

As I always say, goalie prospects are nothingness until they are actually starting capably in the NHL. Their numbers are often all over the place. 

Wasn’t UPL ranked as the top goalie prospect in the world for quite a period of time? 

But that isn't relevant....because you got not ony Levi, but a first round pick also (a late one yes, but still a first rounder).  and you say 'Reinhart to term', what exactly does that mean?  He had one year left with the Sabres, and he wasn't going to re-sign here, so that 'term' might only be 1 season.  I'd rather have that late first and Levi than Sam for this year..for sure.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s not irrelevant at all, this is the problem with a small sample size, allow me to explain: 

When a prospects’ standing can be undone over the course of merely a month or so, that’s an issue. Without this FOURTEEN game sample size, what is he? For me, this is more about knowing what you don’t know: he was adjudged to be a 7th round pick. Build up enough of a sample size post draft, of course it can become irrelevant. But 14 games? What happens if Levi has a bad month? 

Another prospect, you’d point to a significant sample pre-bad stretch, generally you’d have a few seasons of provable fallback. When Levi can literally “undo” what’s being used to pump his tires, with like a month of bad play...the sample size is too small 

It's not a month or so. I quit reading there because it's 2 teams over 10 months. 14 games and this point. UPL was not even as good as Levi at the u20s

[Thorner]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

It's not a month or so. I quit reading there because it's 2 teams over 10 months. 14 games and this point. UPL was not even as good as Levi at the u20s

Yes, 14 games. How many do they play a month? 

If you would have kept reading you would have seen I also said 14 games so..too bad I guess lol 

[LGR4GM]

I'll give him the entire ncaa season but Levi is making a strong case to be considered a better prospect than upl

[Thorner]

Point is, when a sample size as small as the next 14 can, on its own, drastically rewrite our view of the prospect, the data we were relying on pre-14 isn’t strong enough 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yes, 14 games. How many do they play a month? 

If you would have kept reading you would have seen I also said 14 games so..too bad I guess lol 

Why keep reading? You don't acknowledge a sample at 2 different times and 2 different situations showing the same thing is compelling. 

Edited October 30, 2021 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s not irrelevant at all, this is the problem with a small sample size, allow me to explain: 

When a prospects’ standing can be undone over the course of merely a month or so, that’s an issue. Without this FOURTEEN game sample size, what is he? For me, this is more about knowing what you don’t know: he was adjudged to be a 7th round pick. Build up enough of a sample size post draft, of course it can become irrelevant. But 14 games? What happens if Levi has a bad month? 

Another prospect, you’d point to a significant sample pre-bad stretch, generally you’d have a few seasons of provable fallback. When Levi can literally “undo” what’s being used to pump his tires, with like a month of bad play...the sample size is too small 

It’s also true for UPL. His fall from grace has occurred over maybe 30-40 games, most of those his past 17 in Rochester.

What is troubling though is that he is so far off. He’s not inconsistent, or letting in a few softies, he’s downright bad.

And the flip side is true for Levi. He’s not “playing really well” he’s dominating at bothe the highest level of his peers, and again as a 19-year-old in a men’s league.

Each is enough of an outlier that it is worthy of close attention.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

It’s also true for UPL. His fall from grace has occurred over maybe 30-40 games, most of those his past 17 in Rochester.

What is troubling though is that he is so far off. He’s not inconsistent, or letting in a few softies, he’s downright bad.

And the flip side is true for Levi. He’s not “playing really well” he’s dominating at bothe the highest level of his peers, and again as a 19-year-old in a men’s league.

Each is enough of an outlier that it is worthy of close attention.

That's not accurate. Upl has had some questions going back to his time in Finland

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Point is, when a sample size as small as the next 14 can, on its own, drastically rewrite our view of the prospect, the data we were relying on pre-14 isn’t strong enough 

His data pre-14 was pretty strong though. Levi has dominated pretty much everywhere he’s played.

He had 2 strikes against him in the eyes of scouts: level of competition because he wasn’t in one of the main feeder leagues because of his academic goals, and size.

[JoeSchmoe]

Levi's play in the CCHL also has to be considered.

Yes it's a tier 2 league, but he was so good that Hockey Canada saw enough in him that they took him over all the CHL major junior goalies. And by his play in the tournament, they were right.

Edited October 30, 2021 by JoeSchmoe

[Thorner]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Why keep reading? You don't understand a sample at 2 different times and 2 different situations showing the same thing is compelling. 

It’s difficult for me to respond when I don’t know exactly what you’ve read with you having adjudged my argument to not be worth your time reading, so apologies if there’s been overlap on my part. 

2 different times...2 different situations...ya those things can have meaning, but not in an of themselves. 1 game last year and 1 game this year, 2 different times, 2 different situations, does 2 outstanding games separated by several months still work? 

In this case, it’s still only 14 games. It’s not a small sample size, it’s minuscule.

Of course the results are compelling, didn’t say they weren’t: merely that it’s not enough for me to adjudge him better than the guy many analysts who know a lot more than we do adjudged to be the best goalie prospect in the world, I believe on more than 1 occasion 

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s also true for UPL. His fall from grace has occurred over maybe 30-40 games, most of those his past 17 in Rochester.

What is troubling though is that he is so far off. He’s not inconsistent, or letting in a few softies, he’s downright bad.

And the flip side is true for Levi. He’s not “playing really well” he’s dominating at bothe the highest level of his peers, and again as a 19-year-old in a men’s league.

Each is enough of an outlier that it is worthy of close attention.

I agree

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

It’s difficult for me to respond when I don’t know exactly what you’ve read with you having adjudged my argument to not be worth your time reading, so apologies if there’s been overlap on my part. 

2 different times...2 different situations...ya those things can have meaning, but not in an of themselves. 1 game last year and 1 game this year, 2 different times, 2 different situations, does 2 outstanding games separated by several months still work? 

In this case, it’s still only 14 games. It’s not a small sample size, it’s minuscule.

Of course the results are compelling, didn’t say they weren’t: merely that it’s not enough for me to adjudge him better than the guy many analysts who know a lot more than we do adjudged to be the best goalie prospect in the world, I believe on more than 1 occasion 

You'll have to find me a citation for this because I don't know where it comes from. 

His peers are guys like knight and askarov

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's not accurate. Upl has had some questions going back to his time in Finland

I think you’re splitting hairs here. Every draft pick has some questions.

UPL was good enough in Finland to be a 2nd-rounder, then followed that up with a dominating year in the OHL.

Then he had hip surgery.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

His data pre-14 was pretty strong though. Levi has dominated pretty much everywhere he’s played.

He had 2 strikes against him in the eyes of scouts: level of competition because he wasn’t in one of the main feeder leagues because of his academic goals, and size.

And I’m definitely not going to argue against those 2 things being used to evaluate him accurately, by those in the know 

[LGR4GM]

The rest of that post is absurdist rhetoric. If he played only 2 games that's inherently smaller than 14.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

You'll have to find me a citation for this because I don't know where it comes from. 

His peers are guys like knight and askarov

UPL wasn’t at the top of goalie prospect lists? That’s what I was referring to. I can grab a link but I’m sure you’ve seen it 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I think you’re splitting hairs here. Every draft pick has some questions.

UPL was good enough in Finland to be a 2nd-rounder, then followed that up with a dominating year in the OHL.

Then he had hip surgery.

Every time upl has played at a level that isn't juniors (metsis in Finland) he has had major struggles. 

His draft status,  does not matter. 

Just now, Thorny said:

UPL wasn’t at the top of goalie prospect lists? That’s what I was referring to. I can grab a link but I’m sure you’ve seen it 

Which list and by who?

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The rest of that post is absurdist rhetoric. If he played only 2 games that's inherently smaller than 14.

Your language is needlessly aggressive but whatever 

Of course 2 games is different than 14. I was illustrating that using 2 games would be a joke, right? Was pointing out that the total games in question still matters. Not sure exactly what the line is, but:

14 isn’t that much more, in the context of what we are discussing 

Edited October 30, 2021 by Thorny

[JoeSchmoe]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Every time upl has played at a level that isn't juniors (metsis in Finland) he has had major struggles. 

His draft status,  does not matter. 

Yep, 2018-19 was his last decent season. Since then has been replacement level or worse. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Your language is needlessly aggressive but whatever 

Of course 2 games is different than 14. I was illustrating that using 2 games would be a joke, right? 

14 isn’t that much more, in the context of what we are discussing 

Hence why I called it absurdist. As in it was using something absurd for comparison. 

14 games is significantly more. No problem waiting another 13 games until we see 20 ncaa games from Levi but he's making a very strong case to be placed above upl in the ranking of our goalie prospects 

Edited October 30, 2021 by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Your language is needlessly aggressive but whatever 

Of course 2 games is different than 14. I was illustrating that using 2 games would be a joke, right? 

14 isn’t that much more, in the context of what we are discussing 

It's not 14 games. He also dominated in junior A.

[triumph_communes]

UPL is bust. Sunk cost fallacy let it go

 

New shiny toy is shiny. He was passed up because he’s not 6’5” like every other failed goalie prospect. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And I’m definitely not going to argue against those 2 things being used to evaluate him accurately, by those in the know 

It’s kinda the Phil Housley argument.

At the time Bowman picked him taking a high school hockey player was almost unheard of. A 5’10” defenceman in the top 10? People thought he was crazy.

3rd in games played in his class and a hall-of-farmer. Good scouting is about recognizing the outliers.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

It's not 14 games. He also dominated in junior A.

Levi's 37 cchl games have a sv% of .941 which is .2% higher than the next closest goalie that year at .920

Edited October 30, 2021 by LGR4GM