Pick #14 (13th player): LW/RW Isak Rosen (SHL)

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This might already have been stated, but what gets this guy to the draft position he got to?

Other than the small sample U18 World's, everything else in his stat-line doesn't look so good.

PPG in the Swedish jr league looks awfully bad to me... Or am I underrating the league compared to CHL where PPG is not mid 1st round calibre? 

Kid had 7 goals in 7 games against the best of the world in his age group at the U18 WJC this summer.

And he had 28 goals in 50 games mostly as a 17-year-old in a U20 league.

Not sure what's not-so-good about that?

[LGR4GM]

There are not a lot of 17yr old kids who are physically immature (Rosen is 159lbs) who manage to stick for 20+ games in the SHL. My guess is they believe the abilities he shows against smaller opponents will manifest against larger opponents once he is stronger. He is extremely agile and fast with great hands and a nice shot. 

From EP:

Quote

Isak Rosén is pure skill and finesse personified. The only real question is whether he’s skilled enough to make that work for him at the NHL level.
The last thing you want to see is Rosén in space. He collects most pucks mid-stride. His handling and skating forms are nearly impeccable. He’ll send false signals between the blue lines to move the feet of opposing defenders, cutting east-west and using the dotted line. He’ll fake weight shifts, shoulder-shimmy, and just overpower hapless defenders.
So you don’t just have to contend with Rosén’s skill. You also have to contend with the NHL-level habits that act as a force multiplier on his ever manoeuvre. That’s the sort of thing we look for in players with Rosén’s profile -- highly skilled, frail, a little undersized. That’s the difference between a good junior player and someone with legitimate NHL aspirations in a supporting scoring role.

It’s really this simple: Rosén needs to bulk up. His meagre build is already limiting him at the SHL level, and it’s not going to get any easier for him in the NHL. There’s going to be less space, and defenders are going to be even faster and more physical.

 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

And he had 28 goals in 50 games mostly as a 17-year-old in a U20 league

That's a Swedish U20 league. How many would he have in the CHL? 

Quinn had 52 in 62 games in the CHL.

[LGR4GM]

Stop for a second, that is not how this works. Rosen scored 7g in 12 games as a 17yr old compared to Quinn's 52 in 62 as an 18yr old. 

We can't compare them because 1, they played in different leagues. 2 and more importantly, Rosen only had 12 games at the J20 level before being moved up to the SHL. That sample size isn't large enough to really think a ton on it. 

Rosen to Quinn is not a good analogy. They don't play the game similarly and go about how they score in different ways. Neither play in a league you can directly compare either as the J20 operates very differently from the CHL. They are 6 months apart in terms of their draft ages for those DY numbers as well. To understand Rosen we need to find other J20 players and compare them to him. Looking at the J20 data I have... Albin Grewe and Zion Nybeck are two comparables based solely on Isak Rosen's goal scored. 

[JoeSchmoe]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Stop for a second, that is not how this works. Rosen scored 7g in 12 games as a 17yr old compared to Quinn's 52 in 62 as an 18yr old. 

We can't compare them because 1, they played in different leagues. 2 and more importantly, Rosen only had 12 games at the J20 level before being moved up to the SHL. That sample size isn't large enough to really think a ton on it. 

Rosen to Quinn is not a good analogy. They don't play the game similarly and go about how they score in different ways. Neither play in a league you can directly compare either as the J20 operates very differently from the CHL. They are 6 months apart in terms of their draft ages for those DY numbers as well. To understand Rosen we need to find other J20 players and compare them to him. Looking at the J20 data I have... Albin Grewe and Zion Nybeck are two comparables based solely on Isak Rosen's goal scored. 

They were both D-1 seasons.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

That's a Swedish U20 league. How many would he have in the CHL? 

Quinn had 52 in 62 games in the CHL.

• In his draft year Quinn had 52 goals in 62 CHL games and went 8th overall
• In his draft year Alexander Holtz had 7 goals in 3 U20 SHL games and went 7th overall
• In his draft year Lucas Raymond had 3 goals in 9 U20 SHL games and went 4th overall
• In his draft year Isak Rosen had 7 goals in 12 U20 SHL games and went 13th overall

 

William Eklund, who was the only Swedish forward picked higher than Rosen this year, did not play any junior games last year, but he did the previous year.

• In the year before his draft year Isak Rosen had 21 goals in 38 U20 SHL games
• In the year before his draft year William Eklund had 12 goals in 31 U20 SHL games

Like LGR says, it's a tough comparison. That's the best I got.

Edited August 25, 2021 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

They were both D-1 seasons.

The ***** they were. 

Jack Quinn had something like 32 points in 61 games in his D-1 season. 

Rosen had something like 21 goals in 38 j20 games in his D-1 year. 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

The ***** they were. 

Jack Quinn had something like 32 points in 61 games in his D-1 season. 

Rosen had something like 21 goals in 38 j20 games in his D-1 year. 

Ok... I thought D-1 was your draft year and D+1 was the year after. Then I meant D year.

[LGR4GM]

22 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Ok... I thought D-1 was your draft year and D+1 was the year after. Then I meant D year.

It goes D-1, DY, D+1 

D-1 = the year before their draft eligible year

DY = draft eligible year

D+1 = the year after their DY year

 

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

William Eklund, who was the only Swedish forward picked higher than Rosen this year, did not play any junior games last year, but he did the previous year.

• In the year before his draft year Isak Rosen had 21 goals in 38 U20 SHL games
• In the year before his draft year William Eklund had 12 goals in 31 U20 SHL games

Like LGR says, it's a tough comparison. That's the best I got.

We can focus in on Eklund a little more too. 

Eklund: 11g, 12a, 40SHL games

Rosen: 0g, 1a, 20SHL games

But we also have to remember a few things. Eklund is 5 full months older and 16lbs heavier (weight indicating strength) while being at least 1 if not 2 inches shorter (I think Rosen is closer to 6' than 5'11"). Rosen was getting only 5.75 minutes of evTOI a night while Eklund was getting 15.48. This translates to 1.5 more points per 60 minutes of ice time for Eklund over Rosen. That's big but we really have to factor in Eklund's extra 5 months. My guess is that the Sabres could believe that Rosen will be as good as Eklund or in the ballpark after he adds some more muscle. I think that because Kisakov falls into the exact same mold. 

 

ps. reading U20 SHL was so disorienting to me. 

[JoeSchmoe]

Has anything changed here trajectory wise? His stat line so far looks underwhelming.

Always happy to be wrong on this, but I still fail to see the logic in throwing away this pick. They should have taken their chances on a CHL kid. 

 

[Curt]

8 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Has anything changed here trajectory wise? His stat line so far looks underwhelming.

Always happy to be wrong on this, but I still fail to see the logic in throwing away this pick. They should have taken their chances on a CHL kid. 

 

What do you mean by “throwing away this pick”?

You have judged him to be a bust already?

Trajectory wise he looks ok.  Looks like he is having a better season this year than last.

One big thing for him is adding strength/muscle so he can play a bigger role against pro men.  That takes a little time.  He is playing a small role in the SHL for this reason.  In junior games he has played he lights it up.  If he was playing in the CHL he would be lighting it up against 16-20 year olds.

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Curt

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

What do you mean by “throwing away this pick”?

I meant that the team reached way higher to take him over any other draft prognosticator out there. They did well to get the pick for Risto and they could have done better in my opinion.

As a 13th overall pick that you have to hope grows A LOT, you'd want to see much more evidence of offensive upside. His numbers at that draft position are more indicative of a normal sized kid.

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I meant that the team reached way higher to take him over any other draft prognosticator out there. They did well to get the pick for Risto and they could have done better in my opinion.

As a 13th overall pick that you have to hope grows A LOT, you'd want to see much more evidence of offensive upside. His numbers at that draft position are more indicative of a normal sized kid.

I don’t think it was much of a reach.  Bob McKenzie’s final board had him at 18.

What evidence of offensive upside would you hope to see?

I don’t understand what you mean by your last sentence.

[JoeSchmoe]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t think it was much of a reach.  Bob McKenzie’s final board had him at 18.

What evidence of offensive upside would you hope to see?

I don’t understand what you mean by your last sentence.

Last year, Olivier Nadeau had 45 points in 34 games in the Q, which by all my reckoning is a superior league to the Swedish Junior League. He's listed at 6'2" and weighs 198lb. He went 97th overall.

In the same year, Rosen had a paltry 12pts in 12 games in the Swedish U20 League and it's a crapshoot if he'll ever be big enough to play in the NHL. He went 13th overall.

[Curt]

6 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Last year, Olivier Nadeau had 45 points in 34 games in the Q, which by all my reckoning is a superior league to the Swedish Junior League. He's listed at 6'2" and weighs 198lb. He went 97th overall.

In the same year, Rosen had a paltry 12pts in 12 games in the Swedish U20 League and it's a crapshoot if he'll ever be big enough to play in the NHL. He went 13th overall.

I think that this method of  prospect analysis is extremely superficial.  You are excluding a lot of nuance, as well as any actual scouting information.

[Digger]

I would hope to see him on Sweden's WJC team this year and I expect that he will impress playing against similar aged talent.  We will see.

[Brawndo]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/prospect-interest-isak-rosen-skills-par-marner-kane/

 

His Draft Write Up from SN. 
 

The SHL U20 Season was suspended after 20 Games in 2020-21 due to Covid.

 

[Gatorman0519]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/prospect-interest-isak-rosen-skills-par-marner-kane/

 

His Draft Write Up from SN. 
 

The SHL U20 Season was suspended after 20 Games in 2020-21 due to Covid.

 

Interesting take. 

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Last year, Olivier Nadeau had 45 points in 34 games in the Q, which by all my reckoning is a superior league to the Swedish Junior League. He's listed at 6'2" and weighs 198lb. He went 97th overall.

In the same year, Rosen had a paltry 12pts in 12 games in the Swedish U20 League and it's a crapshoot if he'll ever be big enough to play in the NHL. He went 13th overall.

You are making some kind of ratio of current points and current size and tying it to a draft position.   Leaving nothing to speed, skills, potential and future development    

It’s hard to compare players when the they playing in different leagues and against varying competition.  You have to evaluate their skating, speed, moves, hand skill, shot, ability to create, ability to score, tenacity, work ethic, …  not just points and size.   

At 5’ 11” Rosen is already 2 inches taller than a pretty tough player - Marchand.  Can Rosen gain 20 to 25 pounds between ages 17 and 20- 21 years is the question.  I think he can.  

[Hoss]

12 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I meant that the team reached way higher to take him over any other draft prognosticator out there. They did well to get the pick for Risto and they could have done better in my opinion.

As a 13th overall pick that you have to hope grows A LOT, you'd want to see much more evidence of offensive upside. His numbers at that draft position are more indicative of a normal sized kid.

I just did a brief google of 2021 mock drafts and from the first four reputable sources I clicked on he was ranked 21st, 19th, 16th and 14th. You should rethink your view of the initial value of that pick.

[JoeSchmoe]

57 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I just did a brief google of 2021 mock drafts and from the first four reputable sources I clicked on he was ranked 21st, 19th, 16th and 14th. You should rethink your view of the initial value of that pick.

No reputable source took him as high as we did. Again, I'm more than happy to be wrong here, but I'm disappointed with the selection.

FC Hockey: #31
TSN/McKenzie: #23
TSN/Button: #24
Sportsnet: #22
Elite Prospects: #24
McKeen’s Hockey: #18
Dobber Prospects: #20
Smaht Scouting: #17
The Hockey Writers (Zator): #16
The Hockey Writers (Baracchini): #18
The Hockey Writers (Forbes): #31

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

No reputable source took him as high as we did. Again, I'm more than happy to be wrong here, but I'm disappointed with the selection.

FC Hockey: #31
TSN/McKenzie: #23
TSN/Button: #24
Sportsnet: #22
Elite Prospects: #24
McKeen’s Hockey: #18
Dobber Prospects: #20
Smaht Scouting: #17
The Hockey Writers (Zator): #16
The Hockey Writers (Baracchini): #18
The Hockey Writers (Forbes): #31

Don’t know where you got the rankings from, and I’m not going to look up each one, but I know that at least your McKenzie/TSN ranking is wrong.  He was 18th in the final rankings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-2021-final-draft-rankings-1.1669727%3ftsn-amp

[JoeSchmoe]

44 minutes ago, Curt said:

Don’t know where you got the rankings from, and I’m not going to look up each one, but I know that at least your McKenzie/TSN ranking is wrong.  He was 18th in the final rankings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-2021-final-draft-rankings-1.1669727%3ftsn-amp

https://thehockeywriters.com/2021-nhl-draft-profile-isak-rosen/

It looks like that article was written a couple weeks before McKenzie's final rankings. In any case, no one had him as high as 13. 

It looks like he may have been demoted from the SHL back to the Junior League. The team website does list him at 80kg (176lb) so maybe he did put on weight (and it's not a flagrant round up from somewhere in the low 70's). I'm still very pessimistic (I was so happy to get that pick for Risto), but would really love to be proven wrong in the long run.

 

[dudacek]

But he’s quadrupled his SHL production in fewer games!

OK, it’s from 1 point to 4, but still!

Personally, I don’t get why a 160-pound 18-year-old is playing bottom six minutes in a men’s league, but I guess the fact that he’s there at that age and size says something about his talent level.

He’s certainly been electric against his peers.

Edited November 25, 2021 by dudacek

[Hoss]

46 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/2021-nhl-draft-profile-isak-rosen/

It looks like that article was written a couple weeks before McKenzie's final rankings. In any case, no one had him as high as 13. 

It looks like he may have been demoted from the SHL back to the Junior League. The team website does list him at 80kg (176lb) so maybe he did put on weight (and it's not a flagrant round up from somewhere in the low 70's). I'm still very pessimistic (I was so happy to get that pick for Risto), but would really love to be proven wrong in the long run.

 

If you are going to haggle about a guy ranked as high as 16 and in that range by multiple sources being taken just three spots higher you should stop entering conversations about prospects. This isn’t a team taking a guy 15-20 spots higher than anyone even considered him. I’m willing to bet the Sabres aren’t the only team that had him that high.