Pick #14 (13th player): LW/RW Isak Rosen (SHL)

[JoeSchmoe]

15 minutes ago, Hoss said:

If you are going to haggle about a guy ranked as high as 16 and in that range by multiple sources being taken just three spots higher you should stop entering conversations about prospects. This isn’t a team taking a guy 15-20 spots higher than anyone even considered him. I’m willing to bet the Sabres aren’t the only team that had him that high.

Did you even look at the earliest post... Look at all those 20's and 30's!

FC Hockey: #31

TSN/McKenzie: #23

TSN/Button: #24

Sportsnet: #22

Elite Prospects: #24

McKeen’s Hockey: #18

Dobber Prospects: #20

Smaht Scouting: #17

The Hockey Writers (Zator): #16

The Hockey Writers (Baracchini): #18

The Hockey Writers (Forbes): #31

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Did you even look at the earliest post... Look at all those 20's and 30's!

FC Hockey: #31

TSN/McKenzie: #23

TSN/Button: #24

Sportsnet: #22

Elite Prospects: #24

McKeen’s Hockey: #18

Dobber Prospects: #20

Smaht Scouting: #17

The Hockey Writers (Zator): #16

The Hockey Writers (Baracchini): #18

The Hockey Writers (Forbes): #31

 

[JoeSchmoe]

9 minutes ago, Hoss said:

 

Thanks. If it's crocheted, it must be true.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/2021-nhl-draft-profile-isak-rosen/

It looks like that article was written a couple weeks before McKenzie's final rankings. In any case, no one had him as high as 13. 

It looks like he may have been demoted from the SHL back to the Junior League. The team website does list him at 80kg (176lb) so maybe he did put on weight (and it's not a flagrant round up from somewhere in the low 70's). I'm still very pessimistic (I was so happy to get that pick for Risto), but would really love to be proven wrong in the long run.

 

His season, split between J20 and SHL, as well as SHL production was very typical of how Swedish prospects are handled at 17-18, even the very good ones.  They just are not given anything more than 5-8 min per game, 4th line roles, with very few exceptions.

Its true that Sabres drafted him a little higher than he was publicly ranked.

Im just saying that when evaluating prospects, if you are just looking at points production, you are going to be way off base.

Just curious, who did you want them to take in that spot?

[nfreeman]

16 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Has anything changed here trajectory wise? His stat line so far looks underwhelming.

Always happy to be wrong on this, but I still fail to see the logic in throwing away this pick. They should have taken their chances on a CHL kid. 

 

Why?

[Huckleberry]

The kid is probably still two years away , expect him to be here in 2025 or something.

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Why?

The OHL didn't play, so with some research there'd be opportunities to mine some under scouted players. For some reason I thought the Q and W both played less games as well, but just the O.

[Thorner]

20 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

The OHL didn't play, so with some research there'd be opportunities to mine some under scouted players. For some reason I thought the Q and W both played less games as well, but just the O.

Adams seemed to follow this line of thinking with Bloom, so I'm sure he was open to it when it was our time to pick, and we went Rosen. He must have really liked him. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Adams seemed to follow this line of thinking with Bloom, so I'm sure he was open to it when it was our time to pick, and we went Rosen. He must have really liked him. 

They also pointedly pursued the Russian junior league as an under-scouted venue and publicly said so.

Obviously there was a greater body of work studied, but Rosen's spot on their draft chart was cemented through his performance in Texas where he put up 7 goals in 8 games against best 17-year-olds in the world.

[Brawndo]

Wil Scouching who runs a scouting website where His Rankings are heavily based on analytics had Rosen consistently in His Third Tier of Players at 17th Overall. 
 

 

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Wil Scouching who runs a scouting website where His Rankings are heavily based on analytics had Rosen consistently in His Third Tier of Players at 17th Overall. 

Who's in there with him? Any idea where Quinn/Peterka are?

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Wil Scouching who runs a scouting website where His Rankings are heavily based on analytics had Rosen consistently in His Third Tier of Players at 17th Overall. 
 

 

He looks stupid now in his  "scouting" on power 

Edited November 26, 2021 by Buffalonill

[Brawndo]

33 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Who's in there with him? Any idea where Quinn/Peterka are?

That was for the 2021 Draft Class only 

 

https://www.scouching.ca/the-blog/archives/07-2021

Here is His Ranking of Prospects Tiers by Team. 
The Only Vegas Prospect listed in their Core Tier now plays for the Amerks 

https://www.scouching.ca/the-blog/archives/09-2021

Edited November 26, 2021 by Brawndo

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

He likes stupid now in his  "scouting" on power 

he's holding onto his opinion on that one too.   Still prefers Hughes over Power - said the Powers points are mostly against weak opponents and isn't impressed with his defensive game.

Though, I do like listening to his Scouching live thing he does weekly. you hear a lot about prospects who dont get a lot of publicity .

 

[JoeSchmoe]

Its time for Rosen to prove me wrong over the next week or two (hopefully he does).

I'm definitely not impressed with his 4pts in 26 games in the SHL... Let's hope he shows some of whatever Adams saw when he plays against the world's best that are his own age.

[JoeSchmoe]

Anyone watch the game today?

[LGR4GM]

On 7/23/2021 at 9:44 PM, LGR4GM said:

Ummmm well I would have taken Lucius but Isak Rosen is the perfect example of skilled player who was phsyically immature for the league he was in. March bday so mid of the draft class. 

I stand by this. 

[Carmel Corn]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I stand by this. 

Based on your vast knowledge of previous drafts, can you think of other draftee examples who had similar talent & physically immature who later blossomed into top 6 forwards?  Not Buffalo picks, but any team?  I am hoping that Rosen will develop, but just curious if you think his potential resembles anybody who later found success in the NHL?  Thanks.

[dudacek]

Not sure exactly what you’re looking for, but if you want talented, physically immature 1st rounders who smashed concerns about their size, how about MitchMarner, Clayton Keller, Nikolai Ehlers, Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Ennis, Claude Giroux, Zach Parise, and Danny Briere, 

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not sure exactly what you’re looking for, but if you want talented, physically immature 1st rounders who smashed concerns about their size, how about MitchMarner, Clayton Keller, Nikolai Ehlers, Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Ennis, Claude Giroux, Zach Parise, and Danny Briere, 

Marner and Ennis came to my mind.

When I'm being less lazy tomorrow, remind me and I'll look him up in Byron Bader's hockey prospecting to see Rosen's comparables

 

45 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Based on your vast knowledge of previous drafts, can you think of other draftee examples who had similar talent & physically immature who later blossomed into top 6 forwards?  Not Buffalo picks, but any team?  I am hoping that Rosen will develop, but just curious if you think his potential resembles anybody who later found success in the NHL?  Thanks.

It's hard because I don't necessarily look at prospects that way. However, Rosen's lack of production this year is discouraging because I think it's driven by his physical immaturity. 

[Carmel Corn]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not sure exactly what you’re looking for, but if you want talented, physically immature 1st rounders who smashed concerns about their size, how about MitchMarner, Clayton Keller, Nikolai Ehlers, Teuvo Teravainen, Tyler Ennis, Claude Giroux, Zach Parise, and Danny Briere, 

Thanks.  Marner came to mind, but then again I think he was considered top 5 in his draft.  I was thinking Keller was on a lot of people's radar as well as a possible top 10.  I was not thinking of Rosen as a top 10 like some of the names above, but maybe the Giroux or Briere comparisons would give me some hope for the future.  I also like Ehlers.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Carmel Corn said:

Thanks.  Marner came to mind, but then again I think he was considered top 5 in his draft.  I was thinking Keller was on a lot of people's radar as well as a possible top 10.  I was not thinking of Rosen as a top 10 like some of the names above, but maybe the Giroux or Briere comparisons would give me some hope for the future.  I also like Ehlers.

Oh yes,  Keller is a good one. Really the Sabres are banking on Rosen speed and shot which don't help when you're not strong enough to get where you need to go. 

[LGR4GM]

Matthew Barzal is who I think of. Barzel was 5'11" and like 175 his draft year but was shifty.

[Carmel Corn]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Matthew Barzal is who I think of. Barzel was 5'11" and like 175 his draft year but was shifty.

Ah....now that could really be outstanding if years from now Rosen's game could resemble Barzal!  Thanks...it's all to easy to get one's hopes up for a player's potential, but I was just looking for some previous examples to help me understand better that lack of size at age 18 does not rule out an elite career.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Carmel Corn

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Ah....now that could really be outstanding if years from now Rosen's game could resemble Barzal!  Thanks...it's all to easy to get one's hopes up for a player's potential, but I was just looking for some previous examples to help me understand better that lack of size at age 18 does not rule out an elite career.

Just remember he's probably as likely to bust as to be Barzel like.