Pick #1: D Owen Power (University of Michigan)

[DeleteThisAccount]

3 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Powers 9 of those 11 games after that so we don't waste a year of his ELC?

Based on current schedule, dependent on Olympic Break, the Sabres season doesn't end until April 29. Even if Michigan plays in the Frozen Four, Power would have more than enough time to make the jump and get in some NHL games with Buffalo.

[Derrico]

15 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The Sabres have 11 Games scheduled after the Frozen Four Championship in Boston. 
 

They can offer both Power and Portillo the opportunity to burn a year off of their ELCs and get some games in.

Ideally offering ATOs for the remainder of the season in Rochester with ELCs starting in 2022-23 would be the best case scenario for the Sabres after they complete their college season.

Why would the Sabres burn a year of their ELC?

[IKnowPhysics]

6 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Powers 9 of those 11 games after that so we don't waste a year of his ELC?

This is what will happen, barring serious injury.

Nine pro games late in the 2021-22 season, after the NCAA (Michigan) season is over.  Year one of his ELC will slide to 2022-23.

Edited August 11, 2021 by IKnowPhysics

[Brawndo]

33 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Powers 9 of those 11 games after that so we don't waste a year of his ELC?

 

29 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Why would the Sabres burn a year of their ELC?

It would be an enticement for them to leave college and sign with the Sabres and rewards them by getting to their second contract quicker.  Although I did not originally mentioned Ryan Johnson, He would be One Year away from being an UFA so in His Case especially they probably have to burn a year. 

27 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

This is what will happen, barring serious injury.

Nine pro games late in the 2021-22 season, after the NCAA (Michigan) season is over.  Year one of his ELC will slide to 2022-23.

Does the Nine Game or less slide rule apply to anyone besides CHL Players? I thought the minute a NCAA Player signs Their ELC starts 

[Doohicksie]

52 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Why would the Sabres burn a year of their ELC?

You're right, it doesn't make sense..... unless they want to lock them up and don't want them to go back to college for 2022-23.... then offering to let them play more than 9 games might entice them out this coming spring rather than going back for another year.

[Doohicksie]

16 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Does the Nine Game or less slide rule apply to anyone besides CHL Players? I thought the minute a NCAA Player signs Their ELC starts 

Once a college player plays in an NHL game for pay, they can't go back to college as they are no longer amateurs.  I think CHL players can return to the CHL.

[IKnowPhysics]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Does the Nine Game or less slide rule apply to anyone besides CHL Players? I thought the minute a NCAA Player signs Their ELC starts 

Good in-depth read that goes far deeper than your question:

https://businessofhockey.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/burning-the-first-year-of-a-rookies-entry-level-contract/

 

Quote

When management makes the decision to audition a player at the next level, the only remaining hurdle is finalizing the prospect’s entry level contract (this issue is usually more prevalent for college hockey players as they can’t sign a professional contract while maintaining their amateurism where junior players have no restrictions). An entry level contract is limited by term (dependent on the prospect’s age at the date they sign the contract) and compensation but includes a provision for prospects aged 18 and 19 (as long as they don’t turn 20 before December 31 in the year they sign their first contract) that allows teams to slide the contract one year into the future if the player does not skate in a minimum of 10 NHL games (NHL CBA Article 9.1D).

Eligible prospects are allowed to skate in nine NHL games (combination of regular season and playoffs) without having the first year of their entry level contract kick in.

There's two separate issues:

1. Eligibility
   1. NCAA players lose NCAA eligibility the moment they sign a professional contract.
   2. Junior players do not lose any eligibility even after they sign their ELC.
2. Sliding the first year of the ELC may occur once an NHL ELC is signed provided:
   1. Players are age 18 and 19 (see above).
   2. Players have no more than nine NHL games played.

Functionally, once an ELC is signed, NCAA players can't go back to NCAA, they would go to the AHL (they could also theoretically go to the ECHL, but this doesn't happen often).  CHL players can go back to CHL (and for some cases, based on the CHL-AHL transfer agreement, they must remain in the CHL).

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Once a college player plays in an NHL game for pay, they can't go back to college as they are no longer amateurs.  I think CHL players can return to the CHL.

That's right, but the key is 'for pay'.  Does the ELC start the minute they play in the NHL game one, or do they get the 9 games that CHL players get and don't get paid?

[Brawndo]

7 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Good in-depth read that goes far deeper than your question:

https://businessofhockey.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/burning-the-first-year-of-a-rookies-entry-level-contract/

 

There's two separate issues:

1. Eligibility
   1. NCAA players lose NCAA eligibility the moment they sign a professional contract.
   2. Junior players do not lose any eligibility even after they sign their ELC.
2. Sliding the first year of the ELC may occur once an NHL ELC is signed provided:
   1. Players are age 18 and 19 (see above).
   2. Players have no more than nine NHL games played.

Functionally, once an ELC is signed, NCAA players can't go back to NCAA, they would go to the AHL (they could also theoretically go to the ECHL, but this doesn't happen often).  CHL players can go back to CHL (and for some cases, based on the CHL-AHL transfer agreement, they must remain in the CHL).

 

So if I read this right, Portillo and Johnson’s ELCs start the with their First NHL Games as they are both 20 years old as of today, but Power’s would slide as he doesn’t turn 19 until November. 

[IKnowPhysics]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

Why would the Sabres burn a year of their ELC?

The article I link explores this (not for the Sabres specifically, however).  Regarding sliding the year of ELC:

Quote

A major perk of burning the first year of the entry level contract is that the rookie is provided almost a full season less to prove his true NHL talent before contract negotiations. Having only accrued two NHL seasons compared to three is a huge leverage situation for the team.

Pros:

• You get nine games to watch/develop the player in the zeroth year.
• You get three full seasons of that player at the ELC salary and salary cap hit.

Cons:

• You only get nine games to watch the player in the zeroth year.
• The player could theoretically have more opportunity to develop, put up great stats, and make a case for a bigger salary/cap hit on their next contract.

If you want the lower cap hit in year three, at the risk of the player demanding more money for the post-ELC years, you slide it.  D-men typically take longer to develop, so you'd typically want to slide it.

Also worth mentioning, if, like Eichel and presumably Dahlin, Power is really good, Sabres will simply give him an eight year contract extension after the three years of ELC, and will want to a) wait to pay him that salary/cap hit and b) want that 11th year (3 + 8 ) under contract. instead of (2 + 8 ).  They won't abide another Reinhart by dicking around with shorter prove-it bridge deals.

17 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

So if I read this right, Portillo and Johnson’s ELCs start the with their First NHL Games as they are both 20 years old as of today, but Power’s would slide as he doesn’t turn 19 until November. 

Right.  Portillo and Johnson are 20, so no sliding their ELCs.

 

[Cascade Youth]

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

[Drag0nDan]

3 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

Like a total whiff?  or he refuses to sign?

[Drag0nDan]

1 minute ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

I remember being told that the promise of millions of dollars would cause him to choose to not return to Michigan. Not by you necessarily, but it certainly wasn't everyone who said he'd go back.

I would think they would have had that conversation with him prior to drafting him first overall.  I can see a 4th round pick choosing his destination as he developed in college and has no loyalty to the organization.  A guy who you picked #1?  He had to at least somewhat indicate that he wanted to play there.  

[Weave]

58 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

It's a totally irrational fear, but somewhere in the pit of my stomach I have the same feeling.  This team is so bad, and has been so bad for so long, and so obviously dysfunctional, that the thought of 3 years of college and he can walk free worries me.

Worry is a strong word.  I don't have enough emotional involvement to call it worry, but the dark thought is there.

[In The Buff]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

It's a totally irrational fear, but somewhere in the pit of my stomach I have the same feeling.  This team is so bad, and has been so bad for so long, and so obviously dysfunctional, that the thought of 3 years of college and he can walk free worries me.

Worry is a strong word.  I don't have enough emotional involvement to call it worry, but the dark thought is there.

Its not anything i've consciously worried about, but we're so universally renowned for being dysfunctional, that i could even see the rest of the hockey world sympathizing with Power's situation & supporting him for deciding not to play here. There's plenty of examples they could give, where Buffalo arguably hasn't been good for certain players careers, where one could make the case he'd be better off going that route.  I can even see people close to him suggesting it, even if its in jest.  I suppose it'll come down to how much Power wants that paycheck & what type of person he is & the challenge he's willing to accept.... Idk.

I don't wanna think about it lol

[Digger]

1 hour ago, Cascade Youth said:

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

He will sign with the Sabres.  His only alternative is to wait it out at college which is ridiculous for a high quality player like himself.  He needs to move to the next level to keep developing if he wants to succeed in the NHL.

If the Eichel situation does anything it should demonstrate that it's important to develop as a player and get to that big contract as soon as possible and take the 8 year deal at big money.  I'm sure that's the advice he will get from his advisors.  The Sabres also offer a great opportunity because we don't have a crowded established blue line. 

Personally I think that he will be happy to be a Sabre.

[Cascade Youth]

2 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

Like a total whiff?  or he refuses to sign?

What Weave said - that he’d just wait it out and not sign.  Irrational is a good word but it’s been eating at me.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

Let Power go to college, it will take years before anyone sees any payoff from that pick (if we ever do TBH) so don't waste the year

[Shmuffalo]

2 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

I thought the "Rob Ray rule" prevented that?

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

It honestly would not shock me at all if he never puts on a Sabres uniform.

[Shmuffalo]

13 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I'll be darned, that looks like a Sabres uniform.  

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, Cascade Youth said:

What Weave said - that he’d just wait it out and not sign.  Irrational is a good word but it’s been eating at me.

I just think they had that conversation before they drafted him

[Hoss]

5 hours ago, Mustache of God said:

Wouldn't it make more sense to give Powers 9 of those 11 games after that so we don't waste a year of his ELC?

I don’t believe Power is eligible to slide his contract because he will be 20 by the end of the calendar year in which he is playing that game. So if he plays a single game for the Sabres or Amerks it burns a year. However, it doesn’t impact his UFA status because it wouldn’t count as an accrued season.

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

So if I read this right, Portillo and Johnson’s ELCs start the with their First NHL Games as they are both 20 years old as of today, but Power’s would slide as he doesn’t turn 19 until November. 

I believe because he turns 20 in the calendar year that he’d be playing the game(s) for the Sabres it does not slide but I may be wrong

[dudacek]

I find it hard to believe Owen Power would throw away about $12 million by not signing with the Sabres in 2022.

That's essentially what he'd be giving up by sitting out three more years and going to UFA. It's money he would never get back.

Ryan Johnson on the other hand is one we should be worried about.

He's got Power, Dahlin and possibly Bryson and Samuelsson ahead of him and would essentially "only" be throwing away about  $1 million