Five things I need to see to validate the Sabres being fully in on analytics

[Huckleberry]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I have a hard time believing the Sabres would be stupid enough NOT to draft Power. But given the history of the last decade, it's possible. 

I'm hoping they take eklund.  

[rakish]

19 minutes, pretty brutal.

I should have removed @Randall Flagg from my list of people I read, I think it would have made him laugh.

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Explain why Power is your best player in the draft?

Already did that in the draft thread and we already argued about it.

Beniers is a good player. Eklund is also but I'm not as sold on him. If we drafted 2 or 3 I'd be happy with that but @ 1, Power is the guy. You just don't get a huge minute D man like him every draft. With him added to our D we have the potential makings of an incredibly good back end that could become the envy of the league and potentially that can also lead to playoffs and playoff success. 

[Thorner]

On 7/10/2021 at 11:19 PM, PerreaultForever said:

I have a hard time believing the Sabres would be stupid enough NOT to draft Power. But given the history of the last decade, it's possible. 

You'd be hard pressed to make a solid argument for why drafting Eklund over Power is "stupid", imo

[Thorner]

On 7/11/2021 at 8:34 AM, rakish said:

19 minutes, pretty brutal.

I should have removed @Randall Flagg from my list of people I read, I think it would have made him laugh.

This was fascinating and helpful.

Also got a got laugh outa "...but nobody asks me" haha

Edited July 12, 2021 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

You'd be hard pressed to make a solid argument for why drafting Eklund over Power is "stupid", imo

Get back to me in 3 years. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, PerreaultForever said:

Get back to me in 3 years. 

No I will get back to you now. If you are going to drop in say drafting Eklund over Power is stupid, tell us why. 

[IKnowPhysics]

On 7/10/2021 at 3:29 PM, inkman said:

Every player I mentioned has a statical quantification.  The good ones I want to keep, the bad ones not so much. 

Which quantification are you using and what is it for the players mentioned?

I ask, because your first post sounds like a list of personal opinions, not a quantitative analysis by which to judge the analytics approach of the front office.

And even then, there are other non-analytical considerations for each player situation, such that whether or not a player is traded (or drafted or protected) may be more strongly determined by trading partners, positional needs, etc.  This could result in the Sabres "being all in on analytics" for player evaluation, but unable to apply them practically, leaving them short of your definition.

[PerreaultForever]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No I will get back to you now. If you are going to drop in say drafting Eklund over Power is stupid, tell us why. 

Just what we need, another undersized winger with good but not great speed. At best he's Reinhart, at worst he's Nylander. 

Let me guess, Nylander had good metrics and you were in favour of that pick? I wanted McAvoy. 

Power is better and will develop into a great D man. A franchise cornerstone. I've already gone over his upside in other threads, and I believe when I asked you directly you said you'd draft Power as well, so why the argument??? 

 

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Just what we need, another undersized winger with good but not great speed. At best he's Reinhart, at worst he's Nylander. 

Let me guess, Nylander had good metrics and you were in favour of that pick? I wanted McAvoy. 

Power is better and will develop into a great D man. A franchise cornerstone. I've already gone over his upside in other threads, and I believe when I asked you directly you said you'd draft Power as well, so why the argument??? 

 

First, no I wanted Sergachev but nice try. Second, you really want to attack me? Fine let's ***** go, I am sick of your attitude. 

I wouldn't draft Power first overall. I think that is a mistake because he has limited upside. His size is being used as a primary justification for him developing into something he simply won't be, aka Hedman. Power is a nice player who at 3rd or 4th overall you are getting a reliable 2nd pairing defender who can be on your pp1 or pp2. He will never produce enough points to be a great defender and I don't think his defensive game will ever be good enough for him to be a great defender. He is going to be in that Seth Jones/Aaron Ekblad mold of big mobile defender who puts up 30 points a year (mostly assists) and is decent in his own end. He won't have game breaking ability but has a nice high floor due to his skating, size, and passing ability. 

The arugment is simple, I want someone who can tilt the ice in favor of his team whenever he steps on the ice and Eklund and Beniers are better at it than Power. Also comparing Eklund's skating to Reinhart, which is how that appears, is... just something. 

[fiftyone]

On 7/10/2021 at 12:25 AM, inkman said:

1)  Get Risto off the team.  He gets crushed every time he’s on the ice and brings down every Sabre he’s on the ice with

2) Cody Eakin never suits up for the Sabres again.  He replaced Sobotka as the worst forward in the NHL statistically.  It’s quite disturbing they got rid of the worst player and then someone found someone worse.  

3) Not drafting Owen Power - dmen are much trickier to evaluate with metrics but it would give me confidence if they took any of the top forwards or Hughes whose ceiling looks much higher than Power

4) Don’t give away assets to move Okposo. Just no reason for it unless they plan on bringing in $30 mill in players this off-season 

5) Don’t leave Asplund or Borgen unprotected in the expansion draft.  These are players you build with.  Good teams keep these players.  Bad ones let them walk for nothing. 

I largely like the list -- but is number 5 backed up by the analytics you're talking about? I honestly don't know what the charts say about Asplund and Borgen (though I do like them, probably Borgen more) but wouldn't be shocked if they weren't so good.

[Hoss]

For those that haven’t dove into the draft I want to reassure you: Owen Power’s size is not and has not been used as the primary justification for his draft ranking despite Liger consistently claiming it has been. When you’re as big as Power your size will be mentioned every single time you’re brought up because you simply do not see many hockey players who are that big but it’s his skill on the ice that makes him that much more attractive. If he were three inches shorter he’d still be considered an elite prospect in this draft.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

This was fascinating and helpful.

Also got a got laugh outa "...but nobody asks me" haha

Help me @Thorny,  what was that?   I think I clicked on it by mistake?   Who was it?  

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Hoss said:

For those that haven’t dove into the draft I want to reassure you: Owen Power’s size is not and has not been used as the primary justification for his draft ranking despite Liger consistently claiming it has been. When you’re as big as Power your size will be mentioned every single time you’re brought up because you simply do not see many hockey players who are that big but it’s his skill on the ice that makes him that much more attractive. If he were three inches shorter he’d still be considered an elite prospect in this draft.

Not sure what you mean by elite here but he would be a back of the top 10 pick in the 6-10 range and probably in the 8-10 range all things considered. I am with Scouch on Power and he articulated what I thought I was seeing better than I could. He also had some numbers to back it up. There is so much talk about Power developing 2,3,4 things so he can be this awesome defender and it just is unlikely to occur. He might get better at 1 or 2 of them but idk, I just don't like the pick at #1 overall and the more work I have done on this draft and the more info that's come out, Power isn't in my top tier of talent. Sure, with his size and rough skills he could be the best player from this draft but that depends on a lot of development going very right for it to happen. Ekblad, Jones seems pretty close to what Power could become, and that just isn't enough for me at first overall when I can draft Barzal or ROR. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by LGR4GM
spelling

[pi2000]

12 minutes ago, Hoss said:

For those that haven’t dove into the draft I want to reassure you: Owen Power’s size is not and has not been used as the primary justification for his draft ranking despite Liger consistently claiming it has been. When you’re as big as Power your size will be mentioned every single time you’re brought up because you simply do not see many hockey players who are that big but it’s his skill on the ice that makes him that much more attractive. If he were three inches shorter he’d still be considered an elite prospect in this draft.

Agreed.

It's his elite hockey sense, skating and vison that makes him special.   He went from 7th d-man at the Worlds to their #1 guy, playing 25min a game, OT, PP and PK.    That's never happened for an 18 year old at thay tournament.

[pi2000]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Ekblad, Jones seems pretty close to what Power could become, and that just isn't enough for me at first overall when I can draft Barzal or ROR. 

Barzal or ROR? lol

If you're talking ceilings, Power could reach Hedman... his floor is Ekblad (who, btw went #1 OA).

Beniers is good prospect, hard working 2way center.   I like his game, but he'll never put up points at the same rate as Barzal or ROR.... i see him top out at a 40-45pt guy.

Eklund might be a 25 goal guy someday (11 in 40 games in the swedish league isnt that impressive).   Don't get me wrong, I like his game, but Power's hockey sense is just so impressive at his age.

Edited July 12, 2021 by pi2000

[LGR4GM]

Just now, pi2000 said:

Barzal or ROR? lol

If you're talking ceilings, Power could reach Hedman... his floor is Ekblad (who, btw went #1 OA).

Beniers is good prospect, hard working 2way center.   I like his game, but he'll never put up points at the same rate as Barzal or ROR.... i see him top out at a 40-45pt guy.

Lol back to you. Holy ***** did you drink the kool-aid. 

Also Nail Yakupov went first overall but if a guy profiles as him I ain't drafting him first overall. 

Beniers profiles out to ROR ceiling

someone else profiles out to Barzal or Marner perhaps. 

Power profiles out to Ekblad or Jones, Hedman I just don't see. 

[Hoss]

Aaron Ekblad was considered a contender for the Norris Trophy at 25 years old this year prior to being hurt. He has been very good since coming into the league.

Seth Jones is being railroaded by the out of touch analytics community (analytics are great, clinging to a few metrics to claim a very good player is bad is foolish) despite being a Norris Contender in multiple recent seasons.

I’d be happy with those results. The anti-defense because it isn’t fun bias is strong.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Aaron Ekblad was considered a contender for the Norris Trophy at 25 years old this year prior to being hurt. He has been very good since coming into the league.

Seth Jones is being railroaded by the out of touch analytics community (analytics are great, clinging to a few metrics to claim a very good player is bad is foolish) despite being a Norris Contender in multiple recent seasons.

I’d be happy with those results. The anti-defense because it isn’t fun bias is strong.

I'd draft Brandt Clarke before I would draft Owen Power. 

The "he's 6'6" and looked good at worlds (he didn't even look that good)" bias is strong. So strong in fact that ppl are willfully ignoring the numerous flaws and issues with Power. 

Actually my craziest draft thought of the day is that McTavish might end up better than Beniers. 

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol back to you. Holy ***** did you drink the kool-aid. 

Also Nail Yakupov went first overall but if a guy profiles as him I ain't drafting him first overall. 

Beniers profiles out to ROR ceiling

someone else profiles out to Barzal or Marner perhaps. 

Power profiles out to Ekblad or Jones, Hedman I just don't see. 

Beniers profiles out to ROR?  I don't see it.    Love his compete level, but his skills and offensive awareness are very average IMO.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Beniers profiles out to ROR?  I don't see it.    Love his compete level, but his skills and offensive awareness are very average IMO.

I guess we shall see. 

[Rasmus_]

Cough, take Eklund, then trade up for Clarke, Edvinsson or Hughes.  

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd draft Brandt Clarke before I would draft Owen Power. 

The "he's 6'6" and looked good at worlds (he didn't even look that good)" bias is strong. So strong in fact that ppl are willfully ignoring the numerous flaws and issues with Power. 

Actually my craziest draft thought of the day is that McTavish might end up better than Beniers. 

I like both Clarke and McTavish better than Beniers.   I think he (Beniers) drops out of the top 5.

Clarke when at his best looks a lot like Makar... which is very inticing, but just haven't seen enough of it.

[Stoner]

Does Dahlin still profile out to James Norris?

[LGR4GM]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Does Dahlin still profile out to James Norris?

Dahlin still profiles out as a Norris candidate.