The German Partick kane is signing (Peterka)

[JoeSchmoe]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I love it when I post stuff and it doesn't fit Sabres fans world view so it gets dismissed as wrong.

Would you not say an analysis ranking our prospects that does not put Peterka in our top 5 is if not wrong, then flawed?

[GASabresIUFAN]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I love it when I post stuff and it doesn't fit Sabres fans world view so it gets dismissed as wrong.

We're a ***** drafting team that also fails at development while also adding mostly overrated trash in free agency to fill out the roster. 

I'm sorry but if his rankings don't sense I'm going to call him on it.  There is no way the pair of UPL and Portillo are the 30th best group of goalie prospects in the NHL as his chart shows.  That simply isn't accurate.  UPL is consistently ranked as one of the top 5-10 prospect goalies.  

His rankings also seem to align with what guys like Wheeler and Pronman and other right about pipelines in the NHL.

You know I generally agree that we drafted like bat guano for years, but that changed under Jbot but it seems that guys like your friend Bader don't want to admit it.  

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I like him, but the title of this thread raises the bar quite a bit too far. He's nowhere near that. 

By the time he crosses the Atlantic he may well be better than Patty Kane.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

The German Cody Hodgson

The German Drew Stafford

The German Geoff Sanderson

The German Jason Dawe

The German Michal Grosek

The German Evander Kane

😂

 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

The German Cody Hodgson

The German Drew Stafford

The German Geoff Sanderson

The German Jason Dawe

The German Michal Grosek

The German Evander Kane

😂

Don't. Just don't. 

[Buffalonill]

33 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Don't. Just don't. 

We missed out on the German Gretzky !

The German kane will save us 

 

[PerreaultForever]

25 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

We missed out on the German Gretzky !

The German kane will save us 

 

Didn't we put all our hopes on a German already? That didn't go too well. 

[Hoss]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Not even close. 

False. We have a pipeline. It’s just super leaky and is backed up with a whole lot of TP (toilet paper? Terry Pegula? Take your pick!)

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Would you not say an analysis ranking our prospects that does not put Peterka in our top 5 is if not wrong, then flawed?

No. It's based on production and DEL isn't that great and is hard to project from. You're focused on Peterka while ignoring the rest of the issue, our pipeline is thin.

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'm sorry but if his rankings don't sense I'm going to call him on it.  There is no way the pair of UPL and Portillo are the 30th best group of goalie prospects in the NHL as his chart shows.  That simply isn't accurate.  UPL is consistently ranked as one of the top 5-10 prospect goalies.  

His rankings also seem to align with what guys like Wheeler and Pronman and other right about pipelines in the NHL.

You know I generally agree that we drafted like bat guano for years, but that changed under Jbot but it seems that guys like your friend Bader don't want to admit it.  

Bader doesn't want to admit it? Holy crap are you in denial about our pipeline. It's a model so it's not him hating on Buffalo. That's what it spits out based on the numbers. 

Also you're way overestimating botteril and his drafting. 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

No. It's based on production and DEL isn't that great and is hard to project from. You're focused on Peterka while ignoring the rest of the issue, our pipeline is thin.

I get you're not happy, but it was a lazy article. 

Obviously you missed the U20s. He was a force out there. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JoeSchmoe said:

I get you're not happy, but it was a lazy article. 

Obviously you missed the U20s. He was a force out there. 

It's not lazy. It's prospect modeling. 

Yes, I missed the u20s. Lol me, the guy in here getting ***** over for every prospect opinion I post just missed the only really important prospect tournament of the year. 

You're mad jj is under represented in his model and using that to justify everything else. 

[JoeSchmoe]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

It's not lazy. It's prospect modeling. 

Yes, I missed the u20s. Lol me, the guy in here getting ***** over for every prospect opinion I post just missed the only really important prospect tournament of the year. 

You're mad jj is under represented in his model and using that to justify everything else. 

He's got the Leafs at 4th. Their prospect pool is underwhelming at best. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JoeSchmoe said:

He's got the Leafs at 4th. Their prospect pool is underwhelming at best. 

The leafs will tumble after this draft. They wasted draft capital on old "vets" because they believe the myth that those guys put you over the top. 

[Curt]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

For all the people complaining about this:  he is ranking prospects (and team prospect pools) based on the results of a mathematical model (which I’m assuming he came up with?).  It’s not based on scouting or evaluation of player skills, just on their numbers.  For that reason, any accusations of a pro/anti team bias don’t really have any support.

However, it can certainly be argued that maybe Bader’s model just is not good.  Do we have any proof that it is?

11 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

He's got the Leafs at 4th. Their prospect pool is underwhelming at best. 

With Sandin and Robertson, and a few other good ones, it’s not bad.  Wouldn’t say 4th though.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Curt said:

For all the people complaining about this:  he is ranking prospects (and team prospect pools) based on the results of a mathematical model (which I’m assuming he came up with?).  It’s not based on scouting or evaluation of player skills, just on their numbers.  For that reason, any accusations of a pro/anti team bias don’t really have any support.

However, it can certainly be argued that maybe Bader’s model just is not good.  Do we have any proof that it is?

With Sandin and Robertson, and a few other good ones, it’s not bad.  Wouldn’t say 4th though.

I think it's decent 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Then his model is crap.  You also can easily manipulate a model by choosing your definition of a prospect.  Has he played in the NHL, is he over or under a certain age, was he drafted by the team? Mitts and Thompson are the classic examples.  Most writers and modelers eliminated them as prospects because of NHL games played.  My guess is the organization didn’t. 

As to Jbot.  Last season he had 7 of his draftees/prospects playing in the NHL all with bright futures with more coming.   Mitts and Cozens are future core players at center. R2 looks like a top 6 forward.  Bryson and Samuelsson look like middle D.  That Dahlin guy finally looks like the star he was drafted to be.  UPL needs work but is clearly on the road to being a starter in the NHL.  Laaksonen was an AHL all-star and even you admit Portillo’s and Johnson’s potential.  That’s already 10 guys, including 2 stud centers, a Norris contender on D, 2 potential starting goalies, another top 6 forward and four other NHL caliber D.  That doesn’t include guys like Rousek, Huglen and Weissbach that have NHL potential as well

I know you hate Jbot and that he took Johnson over a forward, but enough.  The argument that Jbot didn’t draft well doesn’t stand up to the evidence.  

Edited June 8, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

Here is how the prospect pool's are looked at

https://hockeyprospecting.com/about-the-tools/

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Then his model is crap.  You also can easily manipulate a model by choosing your definition of a prospect.  Has he played in the NHL, is he over or under a certain age, was he drafted by the team? Mitts and Thompson are the classic examples.  Most writers and modelers eliminated them as prospects because of NHL games played.  My guess is the organization didn’t. 

As to Jbot.  Last season he had 7 of his draftees/prospects playing in the NHL all with bright futures with more coming.   Mitts and Cozens are future core players at center. R2 looks like a top 6 forward.  Bryson and Samuelsson look like middle D.  That Dahlin guy finally looks like the star he was drafted to be.  UPL needs work but is clearly on the road to being a starter in the NHL.  Laaksonen was an AHL all-star and even you admit Portillo’s and Johnson’s potential.  That’s already 10 guys, including 2 stud centers, a Norris contender on D, 2 potential starting goalies, another top 6 forward and four other NHL caliber D.  That doesn’t include guys like Rousek, Huglen and Weissbach that have NHL potential as well

I know you hate Jbot and that he took Johnson over a forward, but enough.  The argument that Jbot didn’t draft well doesn’t stand up to the evidence.  

You can't see this as anything other than best-case scenario, right?

[DarthEbriate]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Didn't we put all our hopes on a German already? That didn't go too well. 

Phillip Gogulla? Felix Schütz?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Then his model is crap.  You also can easily manipulate a model by choosing you definition of a prospect.  Has he played in the NHL, is he over or under a certain age, was he drafted by the team? Mitts and Thompson are the classic examples.  Most writers and modelers eliminated them as prospects because of NHL games played.  My guess is the organization didn’t. 

As to Jbot.  Last season he had 7 of his draftees/prospects playing in the NHL all with bright futures with more coming.   Mitts and Cozens are future core players at center. R2 looks like a top 6 forward.  Bryson and Samuelsson look like middle D.  That Dahlin guy finally looks like the star he was drafted to be.  UPL needs work but is clearly on the road to being a starter in the NHL.  Laaksonen was an AHL all-star and even you admit Portillo’s and Johnson’s potential.  That’s already 10 guys, including 2 stud centers, a Norris contender on D, 2 potential starting goalies, another top 6 forward and four other NHL caliber D.  That doesn’t include guys like Rousek, Huglen and Weissbach that have NHL potential as well

I know you hate Jbot and that he took Johnson over a forward, but enough.  The argument that Jbot didn’t draft well doesn’t stand up to the evidence.  

Wow. Just wow. What a ***** comment in bold. 

Let's look at the evidence... every single draft picks Botterill ever made (he's a middling drafter which is better than Murray for sure). 

2017: 

Mitts: after being completely mishandled in development, looks to be on track for a middle 6 role

Davidsson: bust

UPL: Potential NHL starter or backup

Laaksonen: bottom pairing NHL player or AHL callup

Bryson: same as Laaksonen

Weissbach: meh

2018:

Dahlin: easy

Samuelsson: Bottom pairing defender

Makar: 4th line grinder

Cronholm, Kukkonen, Kreug: nothing

2019:

Cozens: top 6 forward

Johnson: 2nd pairing defender

Portillo: Potential NHL starter or backup

Huglen: hard to say after his back injury

Cedarqvist and Rousek: might be plugs here or there but more likely both wash out

 

So let's recap. 

4 Players that are top 4 or top 6 forwards/defenders in Cozens, Dahlin, Mitts, and Johnson

2 goalies who appear to have a good shot of being NHL players

4 players that are bottom pairing or bottom 6 replacement level guys

Did he draft well? He's middling because he may have some volume but the quality is just mediocre. We're really probably talking about 6 players in the 3 drafts maybe 7 which is what you need but the higher end of things is basically just Dahlin, Cozens, and maybe Mitts (probably). If 1 of the goalies hits that gives you 4 guys in that high end range. Again, he's not bad at drafting but the system isn't exactly bloated with great players and considering how high we drafted each round that surprises me a little. The underwhelming picks of Asplund and Davidsson really hurt here. The offensive players are the main issue as we are only talking about 3 guys maybe that matter, perhaps a 4th sneaks in there. Defense looks pretty good. 

Final thought is that Botterill had more draft success than his predecessors and that's good but he failed to really hit in the 2nd round on the high end talent you need to make your drafts really pop. Johnson is his best 2nd round pickup in the loaded 2019 draft. There is some organization depth due to the numbers of lower end guys that will work in the AHL and some will have short NHL careers. Not signing Hagel from the 2016 draft is a major blemish on his record in handling prospects. He's middle of the pack and for a team at the bottom that's a little disappointing. 

[Curt]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think it's decent 

 

Is that supposed to be supporting evidence that his model is good?  Or just a random thing you added to your post?

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

Is that supposed to be supporting evidence that his model is good?  Or just a random thing you added to your post?

Here you go

Quote

The team prospect strength rankings consider all F and D drafted between 2016 and 2020 and all G drafted between 2014 and 2020 who have played 99 games or less in the NHL.

The team prospect strength rankings consider five attributes: the average Star probability of the top 5 prospects, the average NHLer probability of the top 5 prospects, the number of players with a Star probability of 10% or more, the number of players with an NHLer probability of 30% and the average NHLer probabilities of the top 2 goalies in the system (as ranked by the Hockey Prospecting probabilities)

Each team was ranked on the five attributes and then the average ranking of the four attributes determined the team’s strength ranking.

Team strengths are static and do not update as you change the filtering parameters. They are manually updated as changes to team systems occur.

Top 5 prospects (F and D) in each system are determined by consensus top 5 and not probabilities. Local experts (e.g., team staff, journalists, independent scouts) to confirm who most see as the team’s top prospects.

 

[JohnC]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Then his model is crap.  You also can easily manipulate a model by choosing your definition of a prospect.  Has he played in the NHL, is he over or under a certain age, was he drafted by the team? Mitts and Thompson are the classic examples.  Most writers and modelers eliminated them as prospects because of NHL games played.  My guess is the organization didn’t. 

As to Jbot.  Last season he had 7 of his draftees/prospects playing in the NHL all with bright futures with more coming.   Mitts and Cozens are future core players at center. R2 looks like a top 6 forward.  Bryson and Samuelsson look like middle D.  That Dahlin guy finally looks like the star he was drafted to be.  UPL needs work but is clearly on the road to being a starter in the NHL.  Laaksonen was an AHL all-star and even you admit Portillo’s and Johnson’s potential.  That’s already 10 guys, including 2 stud centers, a Norris contender on D, 2 potential starting goalies, another top 6 forward and four other NHL caliber D.  That doesn’t include guys like Rousek, Huglen and Weissbach that have NHL potential as well

I know you hate Jbot and that he took Johnson over a forward, but enough.  The argument that Jbot didn’t draft well doesn’t stand up to the evidence.  

I think sometimes people get hung up in numbers and get too enamored with the depth of the prospect pool. You can have a smaller pool of prospects yet have a talented enough pool to adequately feed the NHL club. If anyone evaluates the number of young players that you listed who are now with the Sabres the takeaway has to be that the Sabres have an expanding young core to build from. And if a few of those young players such as Mitts, Thompson, Dahlin, Samuelsson etc. take an unexpected leap then we are in a better situation than first thought. As an example Mitts is cited as a player who unexpectedly leaped forward under Granato. But another young player who isn't often mentioned is Apslund. He was a Rochester afterthought who played his way into securing a role with the Sabres. The more he played the more the better he got. He's certainly not a flashy player but he is a contributing solid player. 

 

 

[Curt]

30 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Here you go

 

That’s cool, but my question is about the actual performance of his model.

How accurately does it actually predict who will become NHL contributors and stars?