Sabres' Option: Matthew Beniers

[LabattBlue]

I still want Beniers. Worst case he ends up being a good 2-way 2C putting up 50-55 points a year.  
 

I’d be thrilled with that result.  

[Weave]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

I still want Beniers. Worst case he ends up being a good 2-way 2C putting up 50-55 points a year.  
 

I’d be thrilled with that result.  

If only that were the real worst case....

[LabattBlue]

37 minutes ago, Weave said:

If only that were the real worst case....

You think his floor is lower than that?   Where would you set it?

[Weave]

1 minute ago, LabattBlue said:

You think his floor is lower than that?   Where would you set it?

I don’t know.  They call them busts for a reason.  If this draft class is lacking as much as all the in the know folks keep saying, Sure things probably don’t exist in this draft class.

[pi2000]

If they keep McCabe and Risto 🤮, then I'm OK with Beniers as the pick.

If McCabe ain't coming back and Risto is moved, then you have to go Power.

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

You think his floor is lower than that?   Where would you set it?

Isn’t there a possibility that not all of his game translates well to the NHL and he becomes just a gritty, hardworking 30-35 point 3rd liner?  Or something like that?

[pi2000]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Isn’t there a possibility that not all of his game translates well to the NHL and he becomes just a gritty, hardworking 30-35 point 3rd liner?  Or something like that?

Anders Bjork part duex

[LabattBlue]

10 minutes ago, Curt said:

Isn’t there a possibility that not all of his game translates well to the NHL and he becomes just a gritty, hardworking 30-35 point 3rd liner?  Or something like that?

I realize there are no guarantees, but for a guy ranked in the top 5(and in a lot of cases, top 2) even in a down draft year, I would hope for more than a 30-35 point player. 

Edited June 11, 2021 by LabattBlue

[Zamboni]

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

Even in the 1st round … it’s not a given how much a player will develop and contribute on an NHL team. We have all seen the top three picks bust, or become AHL/NHL filler, or become ok 4th liners, or become superstar 1st liners and allllll that in between. So this year is no different. Rinse repeat… I try to expect the unexpected when it comes to 18 year old kids getting drafted. 

[Curt]

23 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

I realize there are no guarantees, but for a guy ranked in the top 5(and in a lot of cases, top 2) even in a down draft year, I would hope for more than a 30-35 point player. 

Yeah, of course we expect more, and it’s likely that we would get much more.

You were talking about his floor though, which would be the low end outcome.

His floor is much less than a 55-60pt, good 2-way C.  That’s probably closer to his ceiling than floor.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Curt

[dudacek]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Adam Kimelman was on WGR and while he did talk a bunch about Power, he also compared Beniers to Jonathan Toews. Just found that interesting. 

Hockey News used the same comparable.

As suspect Beniers is going to be a tough test of that “What is a Sabre?” paper on Adams’ bulletin board.

Power might be better (might be, not saying is), but Beniers is everything Adams wants this team to be.

Edited June 11, 2021 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

59 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don’t know.  They call them busts for a reason.  If this draft class is lacking as much as all the in the know folks keep saying, Sure things probably don’t exist in this draft class.

Sure things do exist in this draft. You're mixing shallow with something else. 

57 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

If they keep McCabe and Risto 🤮, then I'm OK with Beniers as the pick.

If McCabe ain't coming back and Risto is moved, then you have to go Power.

This only makes sense if Eichel and Reinhart are coming back. 

57 minutes ago, Curt said:

Isn’t there a possibility that not all of his game translates well to the NHL and he becomes just a gritty, hardworking 30-35 point 3rd liner?  Or something like that?

I don't think so. He's really good at all the small skills needed to be more than that. Also his college production suggests otherwise. 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sure things do exist in this draft. You're mixing shallow with something else. 

This only makes sense if Eichel and Reinhart are coming back. 

I don't think so. He's really good at all the small skills needed to be more than that. Also his college production suggests otherwise. 

What do you think his floor is?  (Think 20th percentile outcome, assuming good health)

[lothar]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

What do you think his floor is?  (Think 20th percentile outcome, assuming good health)

More talented Curtis Brown?

[Brawndo]

Will Scouching on the Top Two Prospects 

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

You think his floor is lower than that?   Where would you set it?

Well... I mean, truly his floor is total bust. This ankle injury at the WCs blossoms into a recurring surgery-machine and he never sniffs the NHL. But...  provided return to health, let's say he's a 3C who kills penalties. That would stink.

However, he's the USNTDP top center...  In last 10 years they're starting to have a very solid track record.

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Anders Bjork part duex

One is a top-15 pick even in the deepest recent drafts. And probably top-10 even in the deepest, but it's really hard to be concrete on anything this year because the wide variety of games played, teams that didn't play at all, etc., from COVID. The other (Bjork) was very good and made it as far as the USNTDP junior team and managed to represent Team USA a few times. But he was a fifth round project who has a high motor. Beniers knocks Bjork out of the park skill-wise and has the motor, too.

Upstaging by Frank Oz! Bjork, Bjork, Bjork!

57 minutes ago, lothar said:

More talented Curtis Brown?

You may say that in jest... but Curtis Brown was a 2C. Peca was a 2C. Stu Barnes was a 2C. Holzinger was a 4C. Put a bunch of complimentary hard-charging wingers in there. Get some (yeah, OK, all-world) goaltending... and voila. However, goaltending across the board is so much better than the average back in the '90s... you get two Ullmarks together and a boatload of 2Cs and you're in business. Our trouble is we haven't even managed to get two 2Cs together in the last 8 years.  

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

What do you think his floor is?  (Think 20th percentile outcome, assuming good health)

Cirelli. 40pt 2way center that kills penalties. 

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I still want Beniers. Worst case he ends up being a good 2-way 2C putting up 50-55 points a year.  
 

I’d be thrilled with that result.  

Thrilled with that from a first overall?

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Cirelli. 40pt 2way center that kills penalties. 

I don't want to derail the thread here but I'm curious: what would you put Power's floor as?

[Hoss]

Matt Beniers is probably going to be the pick because he looks just like a young Freddy Krueger here who literally has sabres coming out of his hands

[Curt]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Cirelli. 40pt 2way center that kills penalties. 

Ok, just slightly higher than me.  I said 30-35 point, good defensively 3C.

5 hours ago, Hoss said:

Matt Beniers is probably going to be the pick because he looks just like a young Freddy Krueger here who literally has sabres coming out of his hands

Owen Power will probably be the pick because he is the easier prospect to ruin and Buffalo likes to do that.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Curt

[Carmel Corn]

6 hours ago, Hoss said:

Matt Beniers is probably going to be the pick because he looks just like a young Freddy Krueger here who literally has sabres coming out of his hands

NO...NO....NO!!!  Please, we already had one Krueger on this team and it was a colossal failure, not another one please 😉

I Do really like this kid!

[LGR4GM]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

Ok, just slightly higher than me.  I said 30-35 point, good defensively 3C.

Owen Power will probably be the pick because he is the easier prospect to ruin and Buffalo likes to do that.

30-35 points seems low and 40 points is me being cautious but you asked about absolute floor so. 

6 hours ago, Hoss said:

I don't want to derail the thread here but I'm curious: what would you put Power's floor as?

A poor man's Parayko. 25pt solid 2nd pair defender. 

[LGR4GM]

12 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Anders Bjork part duex

That's funny. 

Bjork would have been 3 months older than Beniers in his first NCAA season. He finished with 22 points in 41 games. That is a ppg of 0.537 and only 7 of them were goals. 

Matthew Beniers finished his NCAA season with 24 points in 24 games or 1.0ppg and 10 of them were goals. They don't profile out the same. 

Beniers is closer to the Zegras tier of prospect than many seem to realize. 

Ander Bjork finished his first NCAA season with a -3

Matt Beniers finished his first NCAA season with a +21

Just for you Pi. 

[LGR4GM]

Beniers profiles out to a 65-70pt 2way forward in the vein of ROR or Bergeron (as comparable not saying that is who he will be) who runs your PK, will be on your PP, wins faceoffs, wins battles, is excellent in transitions, and gets lots of pucks into high danger areas. He's going to be slightly below a Cozens in points because Beniers will probably get slightly less PP time or be on the second unit (not because he isn't good but because he's going to be on the PK).