Sabres' options: Owen Power

[Drag0nDan]

We can always move other players - but that is a lot of lefties on defense

Dahlin, Bryson, Samuelsson, Johnson, and Power.  3 of those are 21 and under so you almost would have to move someone.  Do we anticipate johnson coming to buffalo this year?

[dudacek]

Just now, Drag0nDan said:

We can always move other players - but that is a lot of lefties on defense

Dahlin, Bryson, Samuelsson, Johnson, and Power.  3 of those are 21 and under so you almost would have to move someone.  Do we anticipate johnson coming to buffalo this year?

Johnson has yet to sign so I doubt it. His likeliest ETA would be next March, and he will probably play in the AHL the following year.

Power, Samuelsson and Bryson would be 50/50 to be Sabres next year. It's a case of survival of the the fittest and I can't see that being a bad thing.

If they all turn into top 4 D, you trade from that area of strength to shore up an area of weakness. Most GMs not named Botterill seem capable of doing that, regularly.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

We can always move other players - but that is a lot of lefties on defense

Dahlin, Bryson, Samuelsson, Johnson, and Power.  3 of those are 21 and under so you almost would have to move someone.  Do we anticipate johnson coming to buffalo this year?

Yea... like Botterill did while Borgen wasted away in Rochester. 

[Flashsabre]

The thing to remember with Power too is that he had two major events taken away: Michigan wouldn’t release him for the WJCs and Michigan was pulled from the Frozen Four (which affected Beniers and Johnson too)

I would have loved to see his development in those tournaments.  Does anyone know why Michigan let Beniers go to the WJCs but not Power.  Did it have to do with quarantine protocols or academics?

[Drag0nDan]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Johnson has yet to sign so I doubt it. His likeliest ETA would be next March, and he will probably play in the AHL the following year.

Power, Samuelsson and Bryson would be 50/50 to be Sabres next year. It's a case of survival of the the fittest and I can't see that being a bad thing.

If they all turn into top 4 D, you trade from that area of strength to shore up an area of weakness. Most GMs not named Botterill seem capable of doing that, regularly.

He was like unwilling to trade people.  Does Laaksonen look like a player?  

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea... like Botterill did while Borgen wasted away in Rochester. 

Feels like we waited like a year too long to trade montour.  

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Drag0nDan said:

He was like unwilling to trade people.  Does Laaksonen look like a player?  

Feels like we waited like a year too long to trade montour.  

Laaksonen should be named David Farrance but I think there's an outside shot still for him. He needs Rochester for a couple years. 

[Drag0nDan]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Laaksonen should be named David Farrance but I think there's an outside shot still for him. He needs Rochester for a couple years. 

This is why i trust other peoples opinions more than my own.  I don't watch nearly enough non-sabre/non-NHL games to form an opinion around prospects.  You specifically remember another 3rd round pick (from several years ago) that you wish Buffalo should've taken.  Is Farrance good?  

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

This is why i trust other peoples opinions more than my own.  I don't watch nearly enough non-sabre/non-NHL games to form an opinion around prospects.  You specifically remember another 3rd round pick (from several years ago) that you wish Buffalo should've taken.  Is Farrance good?  

Farrance was drafted just after Laaksonen and encapsulates the stupidity of Buffalo drafting in one clear moment. Laaksonen would have been available in round 6 and probably 7 but Buffalo reached. Farrance just finished his final NCAA season and signed with Nashville where he should start next year. Farrance is from Victor NY as well which I laughed at because they love drafting local guys. 

Edited June 4, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Buffalonill]

21 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

The thing to remember with Power too is that he had two major events taken away: Michigan wouldn’t release him for the WJCs and Michigan was pulled from the Frozen Four (which affected Beniers and Johnson too)

I would have loved to see his development in those tournaments.  Does anyone know why Michigan let Beniers go to the WJCs but not Power.  Did it have to do with quarantine protocols or academics?

It was beacuse of exams 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Farrance was drafted just after Laaksonen and encapsulates the stupidity of Buffalo drafting in one clear moment. Laaksonen would have been available in round 6 and probably 7 but Buffalo reached. Farrance just finished his final NCAA season and signed with Nashville where he should start next year. Farrance is from Victor NY as well which I laughed at because they love drafting local guys. 

Let's say the Sabres had Laaksonen ranked say 45th and Farrance at, say, 60.

Pick 89 rolls around and they are the two highest-ranked players left on Buffalo's board.

Should they pick Farrance and count on Laaksonen being there the next pick?

Edited June 4, 2021 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let's say the Sabres had Laaksonen ranked say 45th and Farrance at, say, 60.

Pick 89 rolls around and they are the two highest-ranked players left on Buffalo's board.

Should they pick Laaksonen and count on Laaksonen being there the next pick?

You've already failed if your the Sabres. Your board is already wrong if you have Laaksonen over Farrance. 

But yes, they should count on Laaksonen being there especially when you know their next pick was 10 away and they took Bryson. The draft is a game and you have to gamble at times. 

4 minutes ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

I guess it depends on what the cost of acquiring another 3rd round pick was at the time.

Didn't matter we already had the pick and used it on Bryson. 

See everyone is all in here talking about hey this player is a 2 but this guy is a 1.5 so why bust their balls over that... because they constantly miss out on that 2 to take their 1.5 and over time instead of having a combined 10.... you have a 7.5 worth of players.  

[LGR4GM]

The draft is all a gamble right? But some teams understand how important analytics are with the draft and how to adjust based on age, team, toi, sh% etc for what a prospect is. Seth Jarvis in Carolina made so much sense because he fits the analytics they use when evaluating draft picks. Yes you also use the eye test but as you get later into the draft you should rely on the numbers more and more. It is how you get a Brayden Point instead of a Laaksonen. The other thing to do is also look at how the scouting community at large is ranking players. That gives you some idea of where guys might go, Laaksonen wasn't even in central registry's database and yet we are wasting a 3rd on him? It is like drafting Senyshyn at 15 instead of Barzal... if the consensus puts a guy in round 2 and in the mid of round 1 you take him, you probably aren't smarter. You gotta bet on the odds not on the hopes. You aren't going to consistently find the outliers so you should focus on the guys that are a little more predictable. It all goes to drafting philosophy. For example JJ Peterka was a 20-25 pick in most places but he slid and so Buffalo did the smart thing and grabbed him. Jack Quinn was never going top 10 until Buffalo reached, and some will say well then he's a top 10 but that isn't the way to look at it. Jack Quinn was a 14-16overall guy and the Sabres were like "we're smarter than the consensus by 8 picks and will get a home run" even though it is betting against the house. Don't bet against the house. 

That brings me to Power. You have 2 things to consider, first is the consensus and he isn't the consensus 1 but he's the majority one. Okay theres that but then there's historically how well has a #1 overall defender worked out and why do those players look like? Dahlin had the production, Power might (he's decent). So you have the general area of Power (pick 1-3) and the historical look at defenders as top picks and what that does. It is why if they do take Power, I am fine with it. I think Beniers will be better because he can impact the game more but when Power is consistently ranked in the top 3 it isn't a reach like it was with mid teens Quinn or not ranked at all Laaksonen. 

It all comes back to drafting smart and betting on the good odds and not the long shots. Don't try to be clever with Senyshyn or with Laaksonen. You gotta be smarter when you put together your board. If a player isn't producing in juniors he isn't producing in the NHL. So when you see a 3rd round pick and the guy is a WHL guy putting up 1pt a game and there's no other flags you take him. You don't look at the NCAA guy who you think will suddenly grow into a massive scoring because there's 2 highlights of it. Consistency is the key and the GREAT news is the Beniers and Power are consistent players. Power took about half a season to settle in but once he did you saw him play well consistently. Beniers basically is just consistent at any level he seems to go to. 

In the grand scheme both are good picks. I value Beniers more. The real question is what we do with pick 32 and that is where we make or break it. Getting Davidsson or Lemieux screws you when Peterka or Aho or Robertson or Hoglander are sitting there ready to put up points on your team. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Owen Power = Aaron Ekblad

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Owen Power = Aaron Ekblad

That's my concern for his ceiling. 

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Owen Power = Aaron Ekblad

 

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That's my concern for his ceiling. 

My concern is that Ekblad is Power and ROR is Beniers. That's what I worry about. 

[pi2000]

 

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Owen Power = Aaron Ekblad

That was my concern earlier in the season, but watching him play the past few months he's really taken another step.    

He handles pressure extremely well for an 18yo in his own end, he looks like a savvy vet with the puck on his stick.   Gallant has recognized this is and is feeding him minutes in key situations against seasoned NHL veterans.     He never looks rattled, in complete control at all times, just uncanny for a kids his age.     

For this reason I'd argue his floor is extremely high.

What's his ceiling?  What NHL player can he become?   Terrible questions... he's the first ever Owen Power, let him write his own story.

That said, he'll need to learn how to defend at the NHL level (as do all 18yo defensemen) but with his physical gifts and smarts I have no doubt he'll adapt quickly. 

Again, I also like Beniers, he'd be a safe pick and fills a need, but Power has those "can't teach" attributes that IMO put him ahead of Beniers as a prospect.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

My concern is that Ekblad is Power and ROR is Beniers. That's what I worry about. 

I’d much rather have an ROR or Bergeron vs an Ekblad.  Nothing I’ve read says Power is a future Hedman.  Nice player who will play in the NHL 10-15 years, but I don’t see him changing the future of this franchise especially with our depth at young D.  Berniers is more likely to be a difference maker for us and we lack any center prospects of note.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Johnson has yet to sign so I doubt it. His likeliest ETA would be next March, and he will probably play in the AHL the following year.

Power, Samuelsson and Bryson would be 50/50 to be Sabres next year. It's a case of survival of the the fittest and I can't see that being a bad thing.

If they all turn into top 4 D, you trade from that area of strength to shore up an area of weakness. Most GMs not named Botterill seem capable of doing that, regularly.

Bryson is over 75% likely to start next season in Buffalo.  His metrics and play earned that slot. 

8 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

 

That was my concern earlier in the season, but watching him play the past few months he's really taken another step.    

He handles pressure extremely well for an 18yo in his own end, he looks like a savvy vet with the puck on his stick.   Gallant has recognized this is and is feeding him minutes in key situations against seasoned NHL veterans.     He never looks rattled, in complete control at all times, just uncanny for a kids his age.     

For this reason I'd argue his floor is extremely high.

What's his ceiling?  What NHL player can he become?   Terrible questions... he's the first ever Owen Power, let him write his own story.

That said, he'll need to learn how to defend at the NHL level (as do all 18yo defensemen) but with his physical gifts and smarts I have no doubt he'll adapt quickly. 

Again, I also like Beniers, he'd be a safe pick and fills a need, but Power has those "can't teach" attributes that IMO put him ahead of Beniers as a prospect.

 

These are much the same things they said about Ekblad.  High floor unknown ceiling.

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’d much rather have an ROR or Bergeron vs an Ekblad.  Nothing I’ve read says Power is a future Hedman.  Nice player who will play in the NHL 10-15 years, but I don’t see him changing the future of this franchise especially with our depth at young D.  Berniers is more likely to be a difference maker for us and we lack any center prospects of note.  

What is with all these Bergeron comparisons?

Beniers NHLe (82g) is 27 points, how is that going to change the future of this franchise?

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

What is with all these Bergeron comparisons?

Beniers NHLe (82g) is 27 points, how is that going to change the future of this franchise?

What's your conversion number? Last I saw had him higher than 27. 

[Curt]

28 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

What is with all these Bergeron comparisons?

Beniers NHLe (82g) is 27 points, how is that going to change the future of this franchise?

 

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What's your conversion number? Last I saw had him higher than 27. 

Using Dobbers tool comes out to 27 for Beniers and 17 for Power.

So, Pi, how is 17 for Power going to change the future of this franchise?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Bergeron had 73 pts in 70 games in the Q his draft year. 
 

ROR had 66 pts in 68 games in the OHL his draft year. 
 

Beniers had 24 pts in 24 games in the Big10.

Using the Dobber NHLe Bergeron’s was 24, ROR 26, and Beniers 27.  Bergeron and ROR despite being 2nd rd picks jumped immediately to the NHL.  Like those 2, Beniers is already a complete player playing a 200 ft game.  Just like those 2 I expect him to join the Sabres next fall.  

[Derrico]

13 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Beniers 2way play definitely doesn't have grit or feistiness. He said sarcastically 

I know this is a Power thread so I will check out the Beniers thread next.

Saying that, you will never convince many who want Power that we should go Beniers because we have drafted D in the recent past and can’t score.  But I would love to hear the attributes of each player and why you feel Beniers should be the pick.  I’m very open to a 2-way centre but all I keep hearing as don’t pick Power because we have Dahlin.  That’s not a very worthwhile conversation IMO. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

32 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I know this is a Power thread so I will check out the Beniers thread next.

Saying that, you will never convince many who want Power that we should go Beniers because we have drafted D in the recent past and can’t score.  But I would love to hear the attributes of each player and why you feel Beniers should be the pick.  I’m very open to a 2-way centre but all I keep hearing as don’t pick Power because we have Dahlin.  That’s not a very worthwhile conversation IMO. 

How about don’t draft Powers because he’s Aaron Ekblad 2.

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

That's my concern for his ceiling. 

Ekblad was thought to be a Norris contender prior to injury I thought?