2022 NHL Draft Rankings

[DarthEbriate]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I would be shocked if either Gauthier or Nemec is still available where this list has them ranked.

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if either even makes it to 9.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

A ranking that would allow us to walk away with Nemec, Gauthier, Miroshnichenko and Beck would be too good to be true.

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

His rankings aren’t the best

 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I would be shocked if either Gauthier or Nemec is still available where this list has them ranked.

You shouldn't view a ranking the same as a mock draft. You also shouldn't look at one ranking and anchor all your thoughts on it. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

You shouldn't view a ranking the same as a mock draft. You also shouldn't look at one ranking and anchor all your thoughts on it. 

Which is why I look at 15 each year and never use the one quoted.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is why I look at 15 each year and never use the one quoted.

Outlier rankings allow you to question what you've done or think. It's how you rank Jarvis 6 spots ahead of consensus or have the balls to draft Quinn over Rossi. 

If someone else ranks a player higher or lower than me, my question is why and am I still right? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Outlier rankings allow you to question what you've done or think. It's how you rank Jarvis 6 spots ahead of consensus or have the balls to draft Quinn over Rossi. 

If someone else ranks a player higher or lower than me, my question is why and am I still right? 

While I do a consensus board, I also track the hi and the low of the “ballots” i utilize.  That usually gives me a solid range where the player might get drafted.   For example take Chaz Lucius.  My board had him 11th with a range of 7th to 19th.  He went 18th to Wpg.  Bolduc went 17th.  I had him 26th on my board, but his range was 16th to outside the 1st.  Again this is just a tool to help me understand how the draft might go.

I actually do the same type of thing when I get ready for fantasy baseball.  I search out rankings from a variety of people, do a consensus with a range and utilize both to help me draft.  This year i emphasized young pitching and so far so good.  The draft analysis of my team was that it was the 2nd worst in our league.  After 7 weeks, I lead the league in pitching, and am second in points scored and wins, while having the highest scoring team 3 of the 7 weeks.  

[LGR4GM]

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[LGR4GM]

Montreal and Philadelphia reportedly will not select Russians in the 2022 draft

 

[LGR4GM]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Quote

94. Vinzenz Rohrer, C, Ottawa (OHL)

Sep. 9, 2004 | 5′ 10.25″ | 163 pounds | Shoots right

Tier: Has a chance to play games

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: NHL average
Compete: NHL average

Background: Rohrer played a big role for the 67’s, lining up on both special teams. He was also an important player for Austria’s U20 team. He’s one of the youngest players that I rate as a prospect in this class.

Analysis: Rohrer is a very skilled and intelligent forward. He has the slick hands to beat defenders at a high rate. He shows great vision to find seams and create off the perimeter. Rohrer isn’t that big and won’t run guys over, but he works hard off the puck. His skating, especially for his size, could use a few extra steps for the pros but he’s not slow. It’s why it’s hard to slot him onto an NHL team as of now, but his skill gives him a chance.

Calls him a very skilled and intelligent forward with slick hands and great vision... gives him NHL average puck skills and NHL average hockey sense. #Pronman #What?

Edited May 31, 2022 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

Am I wrong to thing the Sabres will be leaning hard into the USNDP (Nightengale) and Sweden (Anders Forsberg), as well as their recent Russian interest with their higher picks?

It just seems to be a scenario where scouting intel and consensus ranking collide.

[shrader]

56 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Montreal and Philadelphia reportedly will not select Russians in the 2022 draft

 

 

I wonder if that would include a Svechnikov type who has been playing in North America for a few years now.  If yes, just plain stupid.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Am I wrong to thing the Sabres will be leaning hard into the USNDP (Nightengale) and Sweden (Anders Forsberg), as well as their recent Russian interest with their higher picks?

It just seems to be a scenario where scouting intel and consensus ranking collide.

I don't think this will be the case because they didn't suddenly develop a Russian interest. In 2021 it just happened that the Russians played full seasons and the Sabres could extract the advanced analytics they wanted from those leagues versus 0 games for the OHL and limited schedules in most other leagues. This converged to mean they had more info on the russians so they probably tended to move up the draft board and thus were available to be picked by Buffalo. That said if Yurov and Trikozov have good analytics and the Sabres see them sliding, that would fit into what happened in 2021, I just think with full years from other leagues, the data and volume of competing players makes what happened in 2021 unlikely to occur again. 

[Huckleberry]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Calls him a very skilled and intelligent forward with slick hands and great vision... gives him NHL average puck skills and NHL average hockey sense. #Pronman #What?

Yeah I always feel he can be all over the place evaluating prospects.   I guess he wants to remain positive when describing prospects.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Huckleberry

[Flashsabre]

Those guys really love Nazar more then all the other scouts.

[dudacek]

57 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think this will be the case because they didn't suddenly develop a Russian interest. In 2021 it just happened that the Russians played full seasons and the Sabres could extract the advanced analytics they wanted from those leagues versus 0 games for the OHL and limited schedules in most other leagues. This converged to mean they had more info on the russians so they probably tended to move up the draft board and thus were available to be picked by Buffalo. That said if Yurov and Trikozov have good analytics and the Sabres see them sliding, that would fit into what happened in 2021, I just think with full years from other leagues, the data and volume of competing players makes what happened in 2021 unlikely to occur again. 

But their trust in the analytics available in Russia versus those available elsewhere should continue. Seemed to me it was as much about trusting the numbers as it was about having them.

They have added a Russian-based scout this year to help Musil and Forsberg in Europe.

And they also seem to becoming a group that leans into exploiting gaps, so a general reluctance in some quarters to draft Russians seems to be something they may exploit.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, shrader said:

 

I wonder if that would include a Svechnikov type who has been playing in North America for a few years now.  If yes, just plain stupid.

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

But their trust in the analytics available in Russia versus those available elsewhere should continue. Seemed to me it was as much about trusting the numbers as it was about having them.

They have added a Russian-based scout this year to help Musil and Forsberg in Europe.

And they also seem to becoming a group that leans into exploiting gaps, so a general reluctance in some quarters to draft Russians seems to be something they may exploit.

Why? The parameters for trusting the Russian numbers more were sample size, that is gone now because all leagues are back running at full. I don't agree and think it had everything to do with sample sizes of the analytics and being able to back that up against actual viewings. 20 games is a very different feel than 60 games. I see no reason why with full sets of data now from leagues that didn't or barely played last year they would continue to trust Russian league numbers more now that those sample sizes are equivalent. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why? The parameters for trusting the Russian numbers more were sample size, that is gone now because all leagues are back running at full. I don't agree and think it had everything to do with sample sizes of the analytics and being able to back that up against actual viewings. 20 games is a very different feel than 60 games. I see no reason why with full sets of data now from leagues that didn't or barely played last year they would continue to trust Russian league numbers more now that those sample sizes are equivalent. 

I never got the sense from what I read or heard that it was mostly about sample size, more about accuracy.

Maybe I misinterpreted.

Regardless, even if it is strictly sample size, wouldn’t the analytics department still have a better two-year sample to observe trends with the Russian prospects than others?

And the new scout also suggests increased emphasis.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I never got the sense from what I read or heard that it was mostly about sample size, more about accuracy.

Maybe I misinterpreted.

Regardless, even if it is strictly sample size, wouldn’t the analytics department still have a better two-year sample to observe trends with the Russian prospects than others?

And the new scout also suggests increased emphasis.

accuracy and sample are directly linked. A player last year in the CHL might be in a conference with bad teams, kinda like Montreal, and therefore beat up on inferior opponents that they would have otherwise played less in a typical year. 

how many russians drafted do you predict based on "increased emphasis" over/under 3.5?

To the bold, not really. They added scouts in the CHL the year before and they added a Euro scout as well. Suggests they didn't have someone covering Russia and feel that they need that. I fully believe they will have Russian players on their board and may draft them but it won't be because they emphasize drafting russians more.

[dudacek]

I’m not predicting anything other than the Sabres will take the highest guys on their board based on their methodology.

Im wondering if more eyes in Russia and more analytics department trust might weight the board in that direction, that’s all. Does it make them more likely to rank a Yurov or a Miroshechenko higher than other teams? Maybe, but that doesn’t mean they won’t have someone else more highly ranked when their turn comes.

The pick depends more on how the draft falls than anything else.

Edited May 31, 2022 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

Update... Flyers and Jets are the rumored teams.

 

[sabresparaavida]

57 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Update... Flyers and Jets are the rumored teams.

 

So, not the habs then, like in the original tweet?

[LGR4GM]

39 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

So, not the habs then, like in the original tweet?

That's what they say. Hard to really tell how legit this is, although the Russian Prospects tweeter is very good. Flyers reporters have pushed back on the notion. I'd say there are probably some teams who aren't looking at Russians but it will be unclear who they are. 

[sabresparaavida]

For those of you hankering for some size, Kirill Dolzhenkov is someone to look at for the 2nd/3rd. 6’6” 235 lbs. and had 28 points in 33 MHL games.

Edited June 2, 2022 by sabresparaavida

[sabresparaavida]

I’d like the Sabres to look at Noah Warren with the second round pick. He’s a big, stay at home rd, someone I could see pairing well with power in 4-5 years.