2022 NHL Draft Rankings

[dudacek]

@Thorny posited that the higher a team is picking in the draft the more likely they would be to cave to consensus.

"We can't take him here, the fanbase would kill me."

We saw something similar when Forton wanted McAvoy in 2016 and acquiesced to consensus.

***** consensus. Do your homework and take the guy you love.

Live and die with what you believe, or fire your staff and take the next available guy on GA's consensus board.

Edited May 6, 2022 by dudacek

[Curt]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

@Thorny posited that the higher a team is picking in the draft the more likely they would be to cave to consensus.

"We can't take him here, the fanbase would kill me."

We saw something similar when Forton wanted McAvoy in 2016 and acquiesced to consensus.

***** consensus. Do your homework and take the guy you love.

Live and die with what you believe, or fire your staff and take the next available guy on GA's consensus board.

Totally, and this is where I imagine having a good, trusting environment within your scout team makes a big difference.

You want guys to feel that they can ardently advocate for what they believe, even if it’s against the grain, without worrying that it might come back to bite them.

In 2016, was Forten worried that if he pounded the table too hard for McAvoy, Sabres took him, and it turned out to be a mistake 2 years down the road, that he would get canned or demoted?  Did it feel safer to just say your piece, but not over the top push it in a way that would put you on the hook?

With xGMTM, I could almost see that.

[French Collection]

55 minutes ago, Curt said:

Totally, and this is where I imagine having a good, trusting environment within your scout team makes a big difference.

You want guys to feel that they can ardently advocate for what they believe, even if it’s against the grain, without worrying that it might come back to bite them.

In 2016, was Forten worried that if he pounded the table too hard for McAvoy, Sabres took him, and it turned out to be a mistake 2 years down the road, that he would get canned or demoted?  Did it feel safer to just say your piece, but not over the top push it in a way that would put you on the hook?

With xGMTM, I could almost see that.

Good points.

I think the way KA surrounds himself with smart people would lead to honest discussion about picks and prospects. This is the culture that they are trying to foster in the dressing room so they need to lead that way from the top.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 hours ago, Curt said:

Totally, and this is where I imagine having a good, trusting environment within your scout team makes a big difference.

You want guys to feel that they can ardently advocate for what they believe, even if it’s against the grain, without worrying that it might come back to bite them.

In 2016, was Forten worried that if he pounded the table too hard for McAvoy, Sabres took him, and it turned out to be a mistake 2 years down the road, that he would get canned or demoted?  Did it feel safer to just say your piece, but not over the top push it in a way that would put you on the hook?

With xGMTM, I could almost see that.

There is a huge difference between team consensus between the scouts and senior staff and internet list consensus.  
 

If I’m running a team, I’d want to know who my scouts have the most conviction about. If you have good professionals a GM should listen to them and the culture should encourage the scouts to speak up. 

As to Boston, who the heck knows how they put a list together.

Edited May 7, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Flashsabre]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/2022-nhl-draft-stock-watch-whos-up-whos-down-after-under-18-world-championship/

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I still like Jiricek better. 

To base the entirety of a prospect ranking on statistics probably is not the smartest.

I have heard the Nemec’s point production is unheard of for 18 year olds in the Slovak league, but I would have a bunch of questions about that.  What sample size are we working with?  How many top prospects really play in the Slovak league?  Are 18 year olds normally given an opportunity to play big mins and shine in that league?  Does Nemec’s team play a normal style of play or is it particularly offensive?  Has style of play/number of goals in the Slovak league changed recently?

Although it’s nice to try to distill everything down to a single number, there is a lot of context that Bader’s model does not necessarily capture.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Curt

[Flashsabre]

We get so wrapped up in draft picks and then I go watch the Amerks and realize Jankowski was a 1st round pick and MacInnis was a 2nd round pick.😳  Great scouts are worth their weight in gold.

[French Collection]

Watched Shane Wright play last night.

He was invisible for the first two periods then made a few nice plays in the third. His positioning is good, his shot is hard and he has decent speed.

If the Sabres win the lottery and take him, the expectations should be middle six C. It was only one game up close but I did not see anything jump out at me to say he will definitely be a difference maker. I like him but he doesn’t seem to have taken a big step from his 15 year old season. I know he missed a season with the Covid shutdown but he hasn’t separated himself from the pack.

Just my two cents.

[Flashsabre]

7 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Watched Shane Wright play last night.

He was invisible for the first two periods then made a few nice plays in the third. His positioning is good, his shot is hard and he has decent speed.

If the Sabres win the lottery and take him, the expectations should be middle six C. It was only one game up close but I did not see anything jump out at me to say he will definitely be a difference maker. I like him but he doesn’t seem to have taken a big step from his 15 year old season. I know he missed a season with the Covid shutdown but he hasn’t separated himself from the pack.

Just my two cents.

That has been his game all year. He might need to go to Arizona or Seattle where they would be more forgiving early on. Being drafted to Montreal would be a nightmare for him. That market would eat him alive.

When my dad was young his friend was probably the best 15 year old player in Canada. But that was it, he peaked at 15 and never had an NHL career.  I’m not saying that is the case with Wright but it does happen.

[Curt]

40 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Watched Shane Wright play last night.

He was invisible for the first two periods then made a few nice plays in the third. His positioning is good, his shot is hard and he has decent speed.

If the Sabres win the lottery and take him, the expectations should be middle six C. It was only one game up close but I did not see anything jump out at me to say he will definitely be a difference maker. I like him but he doesn’t seem to have taken a big step from his 15 year old season. I know he missed a season with the Covid shutdown but he hasn’t separated himself from the pack.

Just my two cents.

What I’ve heard about him is that he was kind of meh to start the season, he was better in the middle, and has been kind of meh again lately.  As far as #1 picks go, he is not high level.

He needs to make an impact more consistently, but even when he is good he isn’t going to wow you with highlight reel stuff.  It more like quiet 2-way efficiency with leadership qualities in the mold of a ROR or Toews or Bergeron.

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

As I said, unless he's dominate in camp I would send Wright back for 1 more ohl year. 

I agree except sending him back to Kingston is not a positive. They have a terrible track record of developing players and putting good teams on the ice dating back decades.

If you could get him moved to a better team then it would be a positive move for Wright. The Hunter brothers in London are the gold standard for preparing players to be productive pros.

[Flashsabre]

https://thehockeywriters.com/2022-nhl-draft-rankings-may-baracchini/

Savoie falling to 9th would be great.

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/2022-nhl-draft-rankings-may-baracchini/

Savoie falling to 9th would be great.

Savoie has been passed on a few lists. He started the year as a potential #2 after Lambert started his fall.

Nazar around the 16 pick would be nice too.

I like looking at lists that go beyond 32 and see who is around 41. There are usually guys that get talked about as first rounders so that is encouraging.

The Sabres should come out of this draft with at least 4 good prospects and if their scouting group has indeed improved they should find some surprises in the later rounds.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

If we end up with 4 nhl players from this draft, that's a major victory. 

People forgot how hard it really is to turn prospects into full time NHL players that contribute to the team.  Even if you draft well the majority of drafts you’re lucky if 3 picks play 100 or more games. If you find 4 NHL players you’ve done a fantastic job.  Harder still is finding legit top end talent beyond the top 10 picks.  

Take the 2012 and 2013 Sabres drafts. 8 of 19 picks (24%) have played over 100 games.  The 8 are Risto, Zadorov, Compher, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark and Petersen.  All are ok to good players, except Grigorenko who is really a bust, but none of the 8 became star players.  Of the 8, 6 are 1st or 2nd rd picks.  No skaters after the 2nd rd made the NHL.  3 of the 8 were traded or lost before they made an impact on the Sabres and only Girgensons remains in a depth role.  
 

 

 

[Buffalobob]

25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

People forgot how hard it really is to turn prospects into full time NHL players that contribute to the team.  Even if you draft well the majority of drafts you’re lucky if 3 picks play 100 or more games. If you find 4 NHL players you’ve done a fantastic job.  Harder still is finding legit top end talent beyond the top 10 picks.  

Take the 2012 and 2013 Sabres drafts. 8 of 19 picks (24%) have played over 100 games.  The 8 are Risto, Zadorov, Compher, Grigorenko, Girgensons, McCabe, Ullmark and Petersen.  All are ok to good players, except Grigorenko who is really a bust, but none of the 8 became star players.  Of the 8, 6 are 1st or 2nd rd picks.  No skaters after the 2nd rd made the NHL.  3 of the 8 were traded or lost before they made an impact on the Sabres and only Girgensons remains in a depth role.  
 

 

 

I believe you meant 8 of 19 picks is 42%, no?

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Pronman is kind of meh, but did he have actual news about Miroshnichenko?  Or was it just “.......he has top 10 talent but is going to fall, a team could hit a HR taking him in the late 1st....”

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

"Miroshnichenko was present at the U18s and met with several NHL teams. Following those meetings, several NHL clubs are feeling more optimistic about the prospect of drafting him compared to a month or two ago.

In discussions with Miroshnichenko’s representative Mark Gandler, he confirmed what has been reported by Russian news outlets: that Miroshnichenko was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Gandler also said that Miroshnichenko is in remission." - Pronman

He is a major talent.  If he is still around at 16 do you take a chance and maybe get a superstar talent or would you play it conservatively and avoid the risk?

Unless the kid is already playing in Europe or NA, I'm avoiding all Russian players in this draft.  Too much political risk in that they maybe be allowed to leave or the US/Can could in theory bar teams from signing Russian players as part of the war sanctions.  Hard enough to develop a prospect without the added issue of politics.  

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Idk, if I'm taking a Russian at 16 I'd have to see all their medical stuff first. I'd say no on Miroshnichenko at 16 but maybe at 28-32.

I'm a no in general in the 1st rd on all Russian players playing in Russia, like Yurov or Trikozov.  I don't see how in the current climate we can get them here for possibly 3 or more years.  That's to long to wait.   Miroshnichenko has the added risk of health.  The caveat here is his immense talent.  

I don't think I'd even consider him at 28-32.  However in the 2nd round a flier on him might be worth it, especially after drafting 3 1st rd players earlier in the draft.  

For me I really want Jiricek at 9, but doubt he'll be there (or Nemec either for that matter).  Lekkerimaki seem like the obvious choice.  I see him as Olofsson's replacement in a few years.  

At 16 someone like Mintyukov or Mateychuk seems to make sense.  KA seems less worried about L vs R in DG system and if Johnson walks we need another top end LHD in the system.

Edited May 10, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

"Miroshnichenko was present at the U18s and met with several NHL teams. Following those meetings, several NHL clubs are feeling more optimistic about the prospect of drafting him compared to a month or two ago.

In discussions with Miroshnichenko’s representative Mark Gandler, he confirmed what has been reported by Russian news outlets: that Miroshnichenko was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Gandler also said that Miroshnichenko is in remission." - Pronman

Hmm, so maybe he won’t really fall that much.  I’ve been pondering the idea that he might be there at the Florida pick.  Draft at #16?  Maybe.

Thats the profile of player that I want to see Buffalo draft (in addition to defensively responsible RD).  Physical, strong goal scoring forwards.  Slafkovsky, Kemell, Yurov, Gauthier, Ohgren, Miroshnichenko, McGroarty........

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No interest in a lhd in the top 16. None. 

Me either really, especially not one whose calling card is offense.  If Dahlin is going to play RD long term, and I think he looked great doing it, then it’s less vital to draft a D at 9 or 16.  If Nemec/Jiricek aren’t there at 9, I probably go forward-forward at 9-16, then look hard at RD’s at ~30ish, 41, and 72.  Cheasly, Havelid, Lamerioux, Rinzel, Warren

Edited May 10, 2022 by Curt

[GASabresIUFAN]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No interest in a lhd in the top 16. None. 

 

32 minutes ago, Curt said:

Me either really, especially not one whose calling card is offense.  If Dahlin is going to play RD long term, and I think he looked great doing it, then it’s less vital to draft a D at 9 or 16.  If Nemec/Jiricek aren’t there at 9, I probably go forward-forward at 9-16, then look hard at RD’s at ~30ish, 41, and 72.  Cheasly, Havelid, Lamerioux, Rinzel, Warren

While you may have no interest the Sabres might especially if they know Johnson isn’t going to sign.  The pipeline has no significant LHD if Johnson walks. Novikov is an intriguing prospect but is now a complete unknown given the Russia issues. 

The pipeline is also devoid of higher end centers. I’m also ok with Kasper or Rutger at 16.  

[French Collection]

Sabres need Cs, RHDs and another goalie prospect.

Centres can move to the wing if the pipeline gets full.

Goalies are not highly ranked this year so a late round pick could be used and let the kid develop.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres have no rhd in the pipeline at all so.

No interest in a lhd. 

Nothing precludes the team from also grabbing a rhd or additional centers with the Fla pick or our 2nd rd pick.

[Curt]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

While you may have no interest the Sabres might especially if they know Johnson isn’t going to sign.  The pipeline has no significant LHD if Johnson walks. Novikov is an intriguing prospect but is now a complete unknown given the Russia issues. 

The pipeline is also devoid of higher end centers. I’m also ok with Kasper or Rutger at 16.  

I get what you are saying about the LHD prospect pool not being particularly deep, but they do have Johnson and Novikov as you note. Also, they have 3 LHD age 22 or under who all look to be top 4 quality (minimum) and who I’m sure they plan on keeping  around for a long time.  With that in mind, I don’t think the need is very great.

Compare this to RHD where they have Jokiharju in the NHL, who might be a top 4 guy someday but it’s uncertain, and for prospects they have Laaksonen who might not even be an NHL guy, and that’s it.

RHD is the weakest position in the organization.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Curt said:

I get what you are saying about the LHD prospect pool not being particularly deep, but they do have Johnson and Novikov as you note. Also, they have 3 LHD age 22 or under who all look to be top 4 quality (minimum) and who I’m sure they plan on keeping  around for a long time.  With that in mind, I don’t think the need is very great.

Compare this to RHD where they have Jokiharju in the NHL, who might be a top 4 guy someday but it’s uncertain, and for prospects they have Laaksonen who might not even be an NHL guy, and that’s it.

RHD is the weakest position in the organization.

No question other then center, but that’s not how the talent in this drafts falls.  For us at 9 it looks like the best available will be a winger.  At 16 LHD and center should be available.  At 30 ish RHD comes into play.  At 41 it looks like RHD and center are the top choices