2022 NHL Draft Rankings

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

This is a scout’s draft. There is no absolute difference makers at the top of the draft like next year but there are a lot of solid guys right thru the second round. Most of the guys are kind of squeezed together so like others have said it is about picking the right guys. This is where the good scouting staffs make their hay. The last couple drafts are trending well so let’s hope the Sabres’ scouts have a good weekend.

And it'll be interesting to see how effective adding that "character" component to the selection process will turn out to be.  The Sabres w/ their full analytics department & nearly complete scouting & development departments should be able to identify guys that meet their criteria.  3 years from now, we'll get an idea of whether it worked or not.

And "character" was put in quotes because it was used to cover a bunch of other traits besides just what is traditionally thought of as character.

[Flashsabre]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And it'll be interesting to see how effective adding that "character" component to the selection process will turn out to be.  The Sabres w/ their full analytics department & nearly complete scouting & development departments should be able to identify guys that meet their criteria.  3 years from now, we'll get an idea of whether it worked or not.

And "character" was put in quotes because it was used to cover a bunch of other traits besides just what is traditionally thought of as character.

I would have to think McGroaty is on their list. That guy screams character. Ohgren too.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, North Buffalo said:

Is it weaker overall or is it not determinate because of all the lost covid time... Scouts and teams have their work cut out for them.  I do think it harder to project these guys below the top 5 and the ability of these guys to grow and develop a la a Quinn type.  Im betting more than a few surprise people, hoping those surprises end up on the Sabres.

Yeah, the Covid factor will be felt for a few years. The development of some provinces up here was pretty much lost for a year or more.

Our scouts and analytics guys need to find some diamonds in the rough. Quinn is a great example, Bloom is another one that didn’t have any hype but really improved.

[LGR4GM]

 

[French Collection]

My local OHL team is meeting the Kingston Frontenac in the next round, I’ll try and go watch Shane Wright play a couple of games this weekend.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/u18-championship-prospect-notebook-lottery-team-targets-and-nhl-draft-gems/

Nice write up about the U18s

[French Collection]

Cutter Gauthier up to 3rd in N.Am. skaters.

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by French Collection

[French Collection]

Frank Nazar is not in their top 20?

Brad Lambert down to 11th in Euro skaters.

Edited May 5, 2022 by French Collection

[Brawndo]

If it guarantees Nazar at 9, go for it 

[Flashsabre]

14 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

If it guarantees Nazar at 9, go for it 

I hope not

[dudacek]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Woof, css rankings remain biased hot trash

Curious to see how the standards at central scouting compare to those around the league.

Has it changed and adapted, or is it just an under-resourced small handful of old boys using methods and systems straight out of 1984.

Are they on a level playing field with an NHL scouting staff? How do their results compare?

So much fascinating insight in to the field remains out of our hands.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

If it guarantees Nazar at 9, go for it 

Maybe Nazar at 16 by the looks of it.

I think this draft is going to be a little crazy.  Could be a lot of surprises.

[Flashsabre]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would completely ignore css rankings. Nazar won't be there at 16.

We're talking about ppl who have Maverick Lamereoux above Nazar... that's a special kind of laughable. 

I’m not a big Nazar guy but that is utterly ridiculous. At worst he should be right where Geekie is ranked.

I can't stand that they always separate  NA and Euro skater rankings. Like they don’t have the stones to do the work and make one list and combine the rankings.

[Curt]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I would completely ignore css rankings. Nazar won't be there at 16.

We're talking about ppl who have Maverick Lamereoux above Nazar... that's a special kind of laughable. 

I don’t disagree.

I’m interested for when Bob McKenzie’s scouts list comes out.  I think that’s the best insight into NHL draft lists that we get.

Be careful though,  if Lamereoux turns out better than Nazar, someone might dig up this thread 5 years from now and call you out.  😯

[dudacek]

45 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t disagree.

I’m interested for when Bob McKenzie’s scouts list comes out.  I think that’s the best insight into NHL draft lists that we get.

Be careful though,  if Lamereoux turns out better than Nazar, someone might dig up this thread 5 years from now and call you out.  😯

I'm interested in all of the lists, but that's really the only one that I invest much care into, because it represents a consensus of what the pros are thinking.

Whether you like or hate Button or Scouch or Pronman, or whoever, most of the other lists are the products of one hard-working individual, or a small staff that cant touch the resources of an actual NHL team.

And even with McKenzie, his list is an amalgamation of resources that likely have a wide range of credibility. Consensus is a faulty standard when consensus indicates Nolan Patrick is a better prospect than Cale Makar.

Edited May 5, 2022 by dudacek

[Curt]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm interested in all of the lists, but that's really the only one that I invest much care into, because it represents a consensus of what the pros are thinking.

Whether you like or hate Button or Scouch or Pronman, or whoever, most of the other lists are the products of one hard-working individual, or a small staff that cant touch the resources of an actual NHL team.

And even with McKenzie, his list is an amalgamation of resources that likely have a wide range of credibility. Consensus is a faulty standard when consensus indicates Nolan Patrick is a better prospect than Cale Makar.

Regardless of whether I agree or not, McKenzie’s list is the best we have as far as an estimation of what range players might actually get drafted in.  It helps form an idea of who might be there at 9, at 16, at 30ish, at 41.  

[kas23]

So, who’s the Mike Peca or ROR in this draft? Wouldn’t mind a nasty shutdown center with the potential to put up 50-60 pts.

[kas23]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Owen Beck. Idk if I'd call him nasty but he's ROR like. 

Yeah, would want to grab him with the 15th and Nemec or Jiricek with ours. 

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd risk Beck falling to 28-32. Draft is always about value at your pick and I think higher ceiling guys will be there at 16.

I use the consolidated rankings at elite prospects. It compiles about 8 lists. 

Beck is a 2nd rounder on a lot of lists. His offensive ceiling is often mentioned as not very high. He is a solid 200’ C and is one of those hard working types.

I would look at him with Florida’s pick as well as a RHD if they haven’t lucked into Jiricek with the first pick.

A Peca type guy that may be available in the third or fourth round is Liam Arnsby of the North Bay Battalion. He got the “C” in his draft year, is gritty, will drop the gloves to defend a teammate and works hard at both ends. He plays bigger than his stature.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I'm interested in all of the lists, but that's really the only one that I invest much care into, because it represents a consensus of what the pros are thinking.

Whether you like or hate Button or Scouch or Pronman, or whoever, most of the other lists are the products of one hard-working individual, or a small staff that cant touch the resources of an actual NHL team.

And even with McKenzie, his list is an amalgamation of resources that likely have a wide range of credibility. Consensus is a faulty standard when consensus indicates Nolan Patrick is a better prospect than Cale Makar.

It's hard to blame any list for that.  Makar was dominating the AJHL, a league a step below the CHL his draft season and while good his first college season (D+1) he didn't blow the doors off.  He had 21 points in 34 games.  Power in his D+1 season had 32 in 33 games.  Patrick had 102 points in 72 games as a 17 year old in the WHL. Every team wanted him.  His draft year he was on pace for as good a season before an injury after 33 games (46 points).  He also didn't go first overall but 2nd behind Hischier.  Also Heiskanen went 3rd overall and was the 1st D.  

Sure it seems stupid now given how their careers have gone, but it's not like Patrick was an out of left field choice and 3 total players were taken ahead of Makar.  

I wonder what DG could do for Patrick is the Sabres could get ahold of him.

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's hard to blame any list for that.  Makar was dominating the AJHL, a league a step below the CHL his draft season and while good his first college season (D+1) he didn't blow the doors off.  He had 21 points in 34 games.  Power in his D+1 season had 32 in 33 games.  Patrick had 102 points in 72 games as a 17 year old in the WHL. Every team wanted him.  His draft year he was on pace for as good a season before an injury after 33 games (46 points).  He also didn't go first overall but 2nd behind Hischier.  Also Heiskanen went 3rd overall and was the 1st D.  

Sure it seems stupid now given how their careers have gone, but it's not like Patrick was an out of left field choice and 3 total players were taken ahead of Makar.  

I wonder what DG could do for Patrick is the Sabres could get ahold of him.

 

I think you missed my point.

The Internet would have melted down if Makar had gone #1 that year.

That’s because the internet had put its trust in “the consensus” instead of any smart scouts advocating for Makar.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I think you missed my point.

The Internet would have melted down if Makar had gone #1 that year.

That’s because the internet had put its trust in “the consensus” instead of any smart scouts advocating for Makar.

As you know I don't believe in PBA because it doesn't exist.  Every list and every GM is different and value different things.  However using a consensus opinion as a guide to the draft makes sense as most of the good list makers know significantly more then we'll ever know about the prospects.  I have made a 1st rd consensus list for over a decade and found that it's usually a very good indication of who the top 20 to 25 players are every year.  However the order they get drafted is never right, but the tiers are usually pretty close.  Nearly all of my top 30 players each year get drafted within the first 40 picks, but the miss rate increases significantly after pick 20 or so (or whenever Boston drafts).

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Consensus is a faulty standard when consensus indicates Nolan Patrick is a better prospect than Cale Makar.

Ultimately I disagree with you conclusion.  The consensus wasn't wrong to have  Patrick as a better prospect then Makar.  He was the better prospect at the time.  He was a more productive player in a higher end league at a younger age.  Makar didn't blossom until D+2.  How is a scout or a list maker to predict that or that injuries would derail Patrick? Hindsight is 20/20.  It's easy to look back and say Makar was the best player that year, but that wasn't clear cut then.  If it had been 3 teams wouldn't have passed on him.

I went back and looked at my draft list from that year and Makar's grade ranged from 3-17.  His average was 8.50 for 7th on my draft board.  Hischier, Patrick and Heiskanen were 1, 2 and 3 and that's the way they were drafted.   Despite all their resources some team get it right like Van on Pettersson who they grabbed on 5 (10th on my board), while the Rangers reached and failed with Andersson at 7 (13th on my board).  

Ultimately my consensus list did a really good job.  Of the top 22 guys on my board, who had near total consensus as 1st rd prospects, all went in the first rd.  Of my top 31 that year, 27 went in the 1st rd and the other 4 were 4 of the top 8 picks in the 2nd rd.  The consensus actually had some major bright spots like Andersson early and it had Jason Robertson at 28.  He fell to 39 in the actual draft, but if we re-draft today Robertson would be a top 10 pick.

Edited May 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As you know I don't believe in PBA because it doesn't exist.  Every list and every GM is different and value different things.  However using a consensus opinion as a guide to the draft makes sense as most of the good list makers know significantly more then we'll ever know about the prospects.  I have made a 1st rd consensus list for over a decade and found that it's usually a very good indication of who the top 20 to 25 players are every year.  However the order they get drafted is never right, but the tiers are usually pretty close.  Nearly all of my top 30 players each year get drafted within the first 40 picks, but the miss rate increases significantly after pick 20 or so (or whenever Boston drafts).

Ultimately I disagree with you conclusion.  The consensus wasn't wrong to have  Patrick as a better prospect then Makar.  He was the better prospect at the time.  He was a more productive player in a higher end league at a younger age.  Makar didn't blossom until D+2.  How is a scout or a list maker to predict that or that injuries would derail Patrick? Hindsight is 20/20.  It's easy to look back and say Makar was the best player that year, but that wasn't clear cut then.  If it had been 3 teams wouldn't have passed on him.

I went back and looked at my draft list from that year and Makar's grade ranged from 3-17.  His average was 8.50 for 7th on my draft board.  Hischier, Patrick and Heiskanen were 1, 2 and 3 and that's the way they were drafted.   Despite all their resources some team get it right like Van on Pettersson who they grabbed on 5 (10th on my board), while the Rangers reached and failed with Andersson at 7 (13th on my board).  

Ultimately my consensus list did a really good job.  Of the top 22 guys on my board, who had near total consensus as 1st rd prospects, all went in the first rd.  Of my top 31 that year, 27 went in the 1st rd and the other 4 were 4 of the top 8 picks in the 2nd rd.  The consensus actually had some major bright spots like Andersson early and it had Jason Robertson at 28.  He fell to 39 in the actual draft, but if we re-draft today Robertson would be a top 10 pick.

The bolded entirely supports my point. Some scouts had Makar as high as 3. Some had him as low as 17.

Your board (the consensus) whiffed by having him at 7 because it gave as much weight to the bad scouts as it gave the good ones.

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The bolded entirely supports my point. Some scouts had Makar as high as 3. Some had him as low as 17.

Your board (the consensus) whiffed by having him at 7 because it gave as much weight to the bad scouts as it gave the good ones.

I don't look at it that way.  While I ranked them 1-31 that year, I actually tier the guys.  So there was that year tier 1 which included the top 3.  The second tier included had 7 guys including Pettersson, Makar, and Mitts who had very similar rankings and experience doing these charts has shown that the tiers are more important than the actual number ranking.  Of the 7 tier 2 guys, all 7 were drafted in the next 9 picks and the 2 guys who popped into the top 10 were both from tier 3 (one pick worked ok in Rasmussen and one didn't in Andersson). 

Again the consensus boards are just a guide for fans to get an idea who should go approximately where.  They are not a PBA list.

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Again the consensus boards are just a guide for fans to get an idea who should will go approximately where.  They are not a PBA list.

 

Make the change and we are in agreement.

My issue is that fans treat them like a BPA list. That's why we get things like the mass freak out over Quinn.