2022 NHL Draft Rankings

[Norcal]

Wheres @rakishlist?

[LGR4GM]

I am prepared in 5 years for this to be a draft where my rankings age poorly.

[rakish]

20 minutes ago, Norcal said:

Wheres @rakishlist?

page 73, end of the post, it's just a draft list rather than a full list. Anyone that pick224 doesn't cover I don't have on the list.  The 9-16-28 will likely be Lekkermaki-Ohgren-maybe Bichell, hard to guess

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am prepared in 5 years for this to be a draft where my rankings age poorly.

I think everyone is in that boat.  The range on some of these guys is incredibly wide.  Bichsel's range with 16 rankings is 17 to 55, Pickering 16 to 53, Snuggerud 8 to 42.  Lambert is 5 to 42. The Russian factor alone could make or break all the rankings and also blow up the actual teams' drafting.     

I've done more reading on this draft then ever before and honestly I think there are guys into the 30s who I really like and think will be good NHLers like Luneau and Havelid, but the top guys remind me of 2017 when we really had no idea who the best player was going to be and low and behold the guys taken 4 (Makar) and 5 are arguably the two best players with the 20th draft Robert Thomas moving quickly up the board.

[Norcal]

2 minutes ago, rakish said:

page 73, end of the post, it's just a draft list rather than a full list. Anyone that pick224 doesn't cover I don't have on the list.  The 9-16-28 will likely be Lekkermaki-Ohgren-maybe Bichell, hard to guess

Thank you

[sabresparaavida]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think everyone is in that boat.  The range on some of these guys is incredibly wide.  Bichsel's range with 16 rankings is 17 to 55, Pickering 16 to 53, Snuggerud 8 to 42.  Lambert is 5 to 42. The Russian factor alone could make or break all the rankings and also blow up the actual teams' drafting.     

I've done more reading on this draft then ever before and honestly I think there are guys into the 30s who I really like and think will be good NHLers like Luneau and Havelid, but the top guys remind me of 2017 when we really had no idea who the best player was going to be and low and behold the guys taken 4 (Makar) and 5 are arguably the two best players with the 20th draft Robert Thomas moving quickly up the board.

Also of note from that 2017 draft are 

Nick Suzuki (13)

Necas (12)

as well as Joshua Norris (19) who looks to be developing quite well.

[Norcal]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think everyone is in that boat.  The range on some of these guys is incredibly wide.  Bichsel's range with 16 rankings is 17 to 55, Pickering 16 to 53, Snuggerud 8 to 42.  Lambert is 5 to 42. The Russian factor alone could make or break all the rankings and also blow up the actual teams' drafting.     

I've done more reading on this draft then ever before and honestly I think there are guys into the 30s who I really like and think will be good NHLers like Luneau and Havelid, but the top guys remind me of 2017 when we really had no idea who the best player was going to be and low and behold the guys taken 4 (Makar) and 5 are arguably the two best players with the 20th draft Robert Thomas moving quickly up the board.

Korchinski went all the way up into the top ten recently too, didn't he?

He was below 30 i thought?

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Norcal said:

Korchinski went all the way up into the top ten recently too, didn't he?

He was below 30 i thought?

Korchinski's range in 16 draft rankings that I have on my spreadsheet is actually pretty tight.  His high is 8th and low 19th with an average of 14.38.  Mintyukov and Mateychuk are next with averages of 15.56 each, but their ranges are much larger with Pavel 10 to 26 and Denton 8 to 24.

[Norcal]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Korchinski's range in 16 draft rankings that I have on my spreadsheet is actually pretty tight.  His high is 8th and low 19th with an average of 14.38.  Mintyukov and Mateychuk are next with averages of 15.56 each, but their ranges are much larger with Pavel 10 to 26 and Denton 8 to 24.

Ahh ok. I thought Korchinski was ptojected to go 28th to Buffalo early early on.

[rakish]

Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes.

It's an interesting year, I didn't spend much time on it, and like @LGR4GM, I fully expect my results to be embarrassing in 5 years.

One of the things I've learned doing this is to be aware of the consensus. If Lekkermakki goes before 9, I'll take Ohgren at 9 who liger will take at 16, which kills me because now my 16 needs to outplay his 9 in the future, therefore I need to update. I'll put Kasper after Lekkermakki. I'll update over at HF boards.

I started doing this 9 years ago because I wanted to demonstrate that consensus scouting lists (at the time Central Scouting, but now Bob's list) had really poor results. Last year I didn't even use Bob's list because he's not competitive. Trying to bring evidence to my argument hasn't helped, I've stopped arguing.

I think the importance of the draft is overstated. The Sabres were bad, I'm told they got kicked by Ottawa one night, someone said something, and suddenly they were good. Their talent didn't change that day, their drafting didn't change, but their mental approach did, and that's what good coaching does.  They'll be good for 10 years here, I'm not sure they'll win a cup, their top line talent will be a bit short because their drafting sucks, but they'll be good.

Still, put together a list, we'll look at it in 5 years.

[irregularly irregular]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think everyone is in that boat.  The range on some of these guys is incredibly wide.  Bichsel's range with 16 rankings is 17 to 55, Pickering 16 to 53, Snuggerud 8 to 42.  Lambert is 5 to 42. The Russian factor alone could make or break all the rankings and also blow up the actual teams' drafting.     

 

Although it looks to be an incredibly weird draft with all kinds of drama involved, I have to say thank you to all those who have dug in and provided a months worth of awesome reading. It's been fun for me to watch the lists come together as everyone has made their arguments for how to build this team and provided their insights on players and strategies that best fit the teams needs. 

I have no idea where KA is going with this draft, and I'm not sure even he knows how it's going to play out. I do agree with those who say how important this draft is for the Sabres. I see these 4 picks in the top 41 as the icing on the cake that when combined with the remaining 2022 picks filling the pipeline or being used to maybe plug a hole or two in the roster.... wow! This is going to be a fun few weeks as we watch the 2022-23 Sabres being put together.

My $0.02 on the draft is that it is only one part of the recipe for the upcoming season(s). It's going to be a crazy draft, so don't lose your mind over getting or missing on any particular player. There is still free agency and a potential trade or two that need to be put into place. We have to wait and see what the roster looks like on the eve of training camp before we know what the Sabres have created for us. Let's all hope for that #1 GT somewhere along the line. 

Thanks again to everyone and GO SABRES!!!

[triumph_communes]

22 minutes ago, rakish said:

Last call on Mom's Basement Stakes.

It's an interesting year, I didn't spend much time on it, and like @LGR4GM, I fully expect my results to be embarrassing in 5 years.

One of the things I've learned doing this is to be aware of the consensus. If Lekkermakki goes before 9, I'll take Ohgren at 9 who liger will take at 16, which kills me because now my 16 needs to outplay his 9 in the future, therefore I need to update. I'll put Kasper after Lekkermakki. I'll update over at HF boards.

I started doing this 9 years ago because I wanted to demonstrate that consensus scouting lists (at the time Central Scouting, but now Bob's list) had really poor results. Last year I didn't even use Bob's list because he's not competitive. Trying to bring evidence to my argument hasn't helped, I've stopped arguing.

I think the importance of the draft is overstated. The Sabres were bad, I'm told they got kicked by Ottawa one night, someone said something, and suddenly they were good. Their talent didn't change that day, their drafting didn't change, but their mental approach did, and that's what good coaching does.  They'll be good for 10 years here, I'm not sure they'll win a cup, their top line talent will be a bit short because their drafting sucks, but they'll be good.

Still, put together a list, we'll look at it in 5 years.

What do you mean by not competitive?

[rakish]

14 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

What do you mean by not competitive?

Look through the history: hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/

The most extreme is 2016, Bob's results vs. Pronman.  I haven't valued everyone in years, so the valuation is old, but as you can see, Pronman drafted half a team, and McKenzie, unless I'm wrong, got almost zero.

Pronman: Debrincat(6),Bratt(7),Nylander(12),Aho the Swede(17),Burke(32)*,Mete(38)*,Sokolov(49),David Quenneville(47,65),Somppi(84)
McKenzie: Nylander(12),Libor Hajek(16),Bitten(82),Getttinger(51),Kopacka(72)

Pronman's results are good, Wheeler is good, @LGR4GMis good, Bob isn't, and yet, every year people get excited by Bob's list, fortunately no one quotes Central Scouting anymore.

 

[LGR4GM]

Central Scouting is where brains go to die. Worst lists I have ever scene and that is year in and year out.

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, rakish said:

Look through the history: hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/

The most extreme is 2016, Bob's results vs. Pronman.  I haven't valued everyone in years, so the valuation is old, but as you can see, Pronman drafted half a team, and McKenzie, unless I'm wrong, got almost zero.

Pronman: Debrincat(6),Bratt(7),Nylander(12),Aho the Swede(17),Burke(32)*,Mete(38)*,Sokolov(49),David Quenneville(47,65),Somppi(84)
McKenzie: Nylander(12),Libor Hajek(16),Bitten(82),Getttinger(51),Kopacka(72)

Pronman's results are good, Wheeler is good, @LGR4GMis good, Bob isn't, and yet, every year people get excited by Bob's list, fortunately no one quotes Central Scouting anymore.

 

Okay, I thought Bobs list was good at determining what teams will actually pick. Not that he’s picking the best, just that his list is closest to what teams actually do. Apples and oranges. 

[Curt]

9 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Okay, I thought Bobs list was good at determining what teams will actually pick. Not that he’s picking the best, just that his list is closest to what teams actually do. Apples and oranges. 

Exactly.

[Buffalonill]

I got matthew savoie to buffalo ..

 

Should I do Bedard  next? 

[rakish]

The results, well not results... The teams are set for Mom's Basement Stakes for 2022. If you want to see this history of MBS, Oh, I'll be run out of this place for telling that joke. If you want to see the history of Mom's... https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/2020-moms-basement-stakes.2769630/

Sorry about the delay.
I screwed up and tried to draft an overager who was already drafted, I shouldn't try to select players after drinking hours have begun. Other than that, I wasn't too bothered by how my picks fell. Some years, it just doesn't work out, but for me, this year was ok.
Many drafted Kemell at 9, and Lindgren at 106. A lot of contestants got Lambert, often at 28.
 

Sabres
#9      Matthew Savoie (F)                         
#16     Noah Östlund (F)                         
#28     Jiri Kulich (F)                         
#41     Topias Leinonen (G)                         
#74     Viktor Neuchev (F)                         
#106     Mats Lindgren (D)                         
#134     Vsevolod Komarov (D)                         
#170     Jake Richard (F)                         
#187     Gustav Karlsson (F)                         
#202     Joel Ratkovic Berndtsson (F)                         
#211     Linus Sjödin (F)

McKenzie
#9     Joakim Kemell
#16     Danila Yurov
#28    Brad Lambert
#41    Luca Del Bel Belluz
#74    Danil Zhilkin
#106    Mats Lindgren
#134    Josh Filmon
#170    Spencer Sova
#187    Jace Weir
#202    ---    
#211    ---    

Button
#9     Joakim Kemell    
#16     Jimmy Snuggerud
#28    Jagger Firkus
#41    Luca Del Bel Belluz
#74    Danny Zhilkin
#106    Mats Lindgren
#134    Brennan Ali
#170    Brandon Lisowsky
#187    Kyle Jackson
#202    Mathew Ward
#211    Daniil Ivanov

Pronman
#9     Joakim Kemell
#16     Danila Yurov
#28    Brad Lambert
#41    Lane Hutson
#74    Danny Zhilkin
#106    Mats Lindgren
#134    Miguël Tourigny
#170    Connor McClennon
#187    Daniil Ivanov
#202    Jace Weir
#211    Semyon Demidov

Wheeler
#9     Joakim Kemell
#16     Brad Lambert
#28    Isacc Howard
#41    Lane Hutson
#74    Jordan Dumais
#106    Mats Lindgren
#134     Jack Devine
#170    Markus Vidicek
#187    Antonin Verreault
#202    Oskar Asplund
#211    Tyler Duke

@LGR4GM
#9     Frank Nazar
#16     Liam Öhgren
#28    Owen Beck
#41    Gleb Trikozov
#74    Daniil Zhilkin
#106    Michael La Starza
#134    Beau Jelsma
#170    Pano Fimis
#187    Logan Morrison
#202    Alex Sotek
#211    Hudson Thornton

42 Jerks
#9     Matthew Savoie
#16     Jiri Kulich
#28    Tristan Luneau
#41    Matyas Sapovaliv
#74    Tomas Hamara
#106    Otto Salin
#134    Jake Furlong
#170    Fabian Wagner
#187    Marcus Vidicek
#202    Jere Lasilla
#211    Alexis Gendron

rakish
#9     Jonathan Lekkerimaki    
#16     Liam Ohgren
#28    Brad Lambert
#41    David Goyette
#74    Matthew Seminoff
#106    Connor Kurth
#134    James Stefan
#170    Wasted pick Anton Johansson
#187    Matias Rantonen
#202    Otto Hokkanen
#211    German Tochilkin

Edited October 19, 2022 by rakish
Too much white space