Final Practice of 2020-21 Lines

[Marvin]

We could try resigning Larsson and play Cozens with either Eichel or Reinhart while the other gets Ruotsalainen.  Signing real 4C's is a more conventional plan.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

From 27 to 40, sure 

 

I think a playoff team needs better production from a first-line winger, especially when that winger isn't bringing an element of defence or hard-to-play-against

 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I don't see Skinner as necessarily detrimental to a 2-way line, if he's playing with someone who gets the puck in the o-zone almost all the time anyways. We have the documented results. With a pre-MVP level Jack, to boot

I'm not sure why you are so convinced Skinner is the same player he was in his first 40 games in Buffalo.

He wasn't that player the season before that, or the 2 1/2 seasons since.

Isn't it possible that his game has declined, or that he caught lightning in a bottle?

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think a playoff team needs better production from a first-line winger, especially when that winger isn't bringing an element of defence or hard-to-play-against

 

I'm not sure why you are so convinced Skinner is the same player he was in his first 40 games in Buffalo.

He wasn't that player the season before that, or the 2 1/2 seasons since.

Isn't it possible that his game has declined, or that he caught lightning in a bottle?

I'm not. I've said a hundred times that Skinner being successful on that line is is dependent on his game being reclaimed. My point is that until we try him with Jack again for an extended period, we can't be sure he can't be a significantly better player for us than we've seen, since. It certainly bears trying, as jumping 13 points is far from unheard of if you take a guy that was buried on the 4th line for most of the year and stick him with a franchise C - that we've already seen him have success with and haven't really tried together since. 

I may overstate the likelihood of it happening, but you also underrate the contextual factors that may allow the possibility. He hasn't been with Jack. He has had to play under Ralph Krueger for the entirety of his "slump". We've seen a sizeable, sizeable increase in Skinner's production since Granato came aboard and I am quite literally the only one on the board that mentions it, even though we hear about how he's made everyone else better countless times. 

As for the production of 40 points being enough, if Jack and the other winger are producing as we want them to, of course 40 points would be enough. It's not too shabby on it's own, and if the line is working, Skinner's game is facilitating that. It's merely a hypothetical. Call it what you want, 45 points, whatever. To say he doesn't bring an element of hard to play against just isn't true. If he's drawing penalties at a high rate, which he does, that basically by definition implies hard to play against. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

We could try resigning Larsson and play Cozens with either Eichel or Reinhart while the other gets Ruotsalainen.  Signing real 4C's is a more conventional plan.

They should get a good 4C if they can.  I doubt Larsson would want to return but anything is possible. I'd try Eric Haula.  I also agree with putting Cozens as a top 6 RW next season.  Reinhart should be the 2C and Mitts the 3C.  The line of Asplund Mitts and Thompson should remain together.  

[Thorner]

Skinner is on a 41 point pace since April 1. Why does that not matter? Every time I fire off that stat someone comes back with "well, is that enough for 9 million?" or "how many goals specifically?" or something about how he's a JAG because the time period before that was bad. Ok. But Casey's rebirth in the same time frame under Granato is indisputably real and he's our 2C going forward with ease. It's one or the other - either being better away from Krueger is a real thing or it's not. 

If it's real with Skinner, and he's back to at least being a 40 point player, already, is it so ridiculously unheard of that, paired back with Jack, that could jump to even 50 or more? 

Since April 1 Skinner has more points than any forward on our team not named Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Thompson, or Olofsson. And all of those guys are paired with another of the guys in that 4. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Thorny said:

Skinner is on a 41 point pace since April 1. Why does that not matter? Every time I fire off that stat someone comes back with "well, is that enough for 9 million?" or "how many goals specifically?" or something about how he's a JAG because the time period before that was bad. Ok. But Casey's rebirth in the same time frame under Granato is indisputably real and he's our 2C going forward with ease. It's one or the other - either being better away from Krueger is a real thing or it's not. 

I think Skinner is significantly better now that RK is gone, gone ,gone.  A 40 pt pace is solid for a lower end 2nd line player or a top end 3rd line player and if he can play consistently at that level his horrible contract becomes just a lousy contract but at least he'll be contributing.  As everyone knows, I'm thrilled for Casey, but I think Sam is the 2C next season with Mitts centering two of Asplund, R2 and/or Thompson.  They should have some significant mismatches. 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I think Skinner is significantly better now that RK is gone, gone ,gone.  A 40 pt pace is solid for a lower end 2nd line player or a top end 3rd line player and if he can play consistently at that level his horrible contract becomes just a lousy contract but at least he'll be contributing.  As everyone knows, I'm thrilled for Casey, but I think Sam is the 2C next season with Mitts centering two of Asplund, R2 and/or Thompson.  They should have some significant mismatches. 

And I'm looking at that 40 point pace and imaging how that might go higher paired with Jack and calling it the thing we should try first next year, especially in light of the last time we played them together, and in the interest of maximizing his contract if in any way we can line that up with the aims of the team as a whole. 

Edited May 7, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Skinner is on a 41 point pace since April 1. Why does that not matter? Every time I fire off that stat someone comes back with "well, is that enough for 9 million?" or "how many goals specifically?" or something about how he's a JAG because the time period before that was bad. Ok. But Casey's rebirth in the same time frame under Granato is indisputably real and he's our 2C going forward with ease. It's one or the other - either being better away from Krueger is a real thing or it's not. 

If it's real with Skinner, and he's back to at least being a 40 point player, already, is it so ridiculously unheard of that, paired back with Jack, that could jump to even 50 or more? 

Since April 1 Skinner has more points than any forward on our team not named Reinhart, Mittelstadt, Thompson, or Olofsson. And all of those guys are paired with another of the guys in that 4. 

. 

I think Mittelstadt at a 70 point pace with two other kids is much, much more remarkable than Skinner at a 40-point pace with our two most proven offensive forwards. The latter is definitely a positive given his first half, but it’s hardly impressive.

He has similar points and half the goals of Thompson in that period and some people want to expose Thompson in the expansion draft. Skinner has improved his production - in my view largely due to his improved usage, not his improved play, but potato, potahto. But he’s not having a Renaissance. If Thompson had 3 goals and 8 assists on red-hot Sam’s flank over 21 games would you not wonder if there were coattails involved, and maybe suggest someone else (Skinner?) should get a shot?

To your other points, I don’t recall a single poster - maybe GA? - thinking Casey is indisputably for real.

And I do think Skinner should be paired with Jack to start and hope to good he does something with it, because 40-points on the first line are the numbers of a player you want to upgrade.

 

[Doohicksie]

9 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

 

That song is really bad.  The video makes it even worse.

[Thorner]

15 hours ago, dudacek said:

. 

I think Mittelstadt at a 70 point pace with two other kids is much, much more remarkable than Skinner at a 40-point pace with our two most proven offensive forwards. The latter is definitely a positive given his first half, but it’s hardly impressive.

He has similar points and half the goals of Thompson in that period and some people want to expose Thompson in the expansion draft. Skinner has improved his production - in my view largely due to his improved usage, not his improved play, but potato, potahto. But he’s not having a Renaissance. If Thompson had 3 goals and 8 assists on red-hot Sam’s flank over 21 games would you not wonder if there were coattails involved, and maybe suggest someone else (Skinner?) should get a shot?

To your other points, I don’t recall a single poster - maybe GA? - thinking Casey is indisputably for real.

And I do think Skinner should be paired with Jack to start and hope to good he does something with it, because 40-points on the first line are the numbers of a player you want to upgrade.

 

It's not impressive, didn't say it was. I said it was noteworthy. It's a positive sign, arguably as positive as any given his contract, and it lends credence to the thinking we both share, mentioned last in your post - putting Skinner with Jack to start. I wouldn't expect a "renaissance" possible until that happens, anyways.

I don't think you should get so hung up on "40 points". You don't "need" more than that from your top line LW. Kahun is McDavid's LW right now. How many points does Kahun have? Puljujarvi is one of his most common line mates. 

Thornton and Galchenyuk hold down the Leafs top 2 LW spots..

You get your Marchand - Bergeron - Pastrnak but usually lines aren't loaded like that. The context was a Reinhart like player on Jack's RW, they don't necessarily need a 70 point guy lined up next to them and frequently it's a similar situation league wide.

40 points was good for 35th place among LW's the last full NHL season. So it's league-best second line LW production. You can make a player like that work on a top line if your other two guys are a little higher up. Which, Jack and the other winger in the scenario would be. I'd hope he gets more points if he's in that spot, Skinner that is, but I can't say with a blanket statement 40 wouldn't be enough for a 1LW. Not without seeing all the context. In any event, if his current play is indicative and he's a 40 point guy, which is the hope - that the current play is sustainable - I'd assume that to go up next to JE.

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Thorny