Roster Off-Season Gameplan

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

What roster additions would you make, if any?

Cozens?

You are correct that Cozens played better under Krueger than he has under Granato. But for a  reason that is not associated with coaching. Cozens like a lot of young players hit the brick wall of a long and grinding pro season in his rookie year. And it has to be factored in that the compressed schedule made it even more difficult for him. He's still physically developing and has not come close to the mature level he will get to in another couple to few years. You can see the physical maturation process taking time with both Thompson and Mitts. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

You are correct that Cozens played better under Krueger than he has under Granato. But for a  reason that is not associated with coaching. Cozens like a lot of young players hit the brick wall of a long and grinding pro season in his rookie year. And it has to be factored in that the compressed schedule made it even more difficult for him. He's still physically developing and has not come close to the mature level he will get to in another couple to few years. You can see the physical maturation process taking time with both Thompson and Mitts. 

Exactly.  @tom webster would correctly point out that most 19 year olds aren't physically ready for the grind of the NHL.  Add the compressed schedule and you get one tired kid.  

[Curt]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Exactly.  @tom webster would correctly point out that most 19 year olds aren't physically ready for the grind of the NHL.  Add the compressed schedule and you get one tired kid.  

Hope it hasn’t been a factor, but Cozens also sustained a concussion this season.  That stuff can have minor lingering effects.

[JohnC]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Exactly.  @tom webster would correctly point out that most 19 year olds aren't physically ready for the grind of the NHL.  Add the compressed schedule and you get one tired kid.  

Emotional maturity also has to be included with the issue of physical maturity. They are intertwined when discussing the maturation process. My sense is that Cozen's baseline physical and emotional maturity level were higher than Mitt's  at the start of their respective NHL careers. I'm really excited about the Yukon kid. Next year he is going to be better, and the year after he is going to be much better, etc. I believe that in the not distant future he is going to be an anchor player for us. 

One of the primary reasons I'm such a strong advocate for Granato to be our HC is that he has a talent for understanding the development process of young players. He knows how to handle the unique requirements of individual players. Considering the young makeup of this roster that is where our future lies.  

[LabattBlue]

Off-season plan...

- Hire a legit experienced HC and GM.

- Everyone except Cozens and Dahlin are up for trade discussion. 

- Convince the Pegula’s to either be 100% hands off, or sell the team. 
 

That’s all I’ve got. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

So now it begins.

What are the odds that McCabe and Ullmark return?  I suspect that McCabe will get a better deal to stay then he will elsewhere, but Ullmark the opposite is probably true.  

[mjd1001]

It depends what is Adams goal for next year?

Option 1:  Win at all costs, make this team the best it possibly can be next year, playoffs are a priority.

Option 2:  Win, be better than this year, certainly try to make the playoffs but don't sacrifice player development.

 

If you choose option 1...you look to hire a veteran head coach, resign Ulmark (even if overpaying), resign McCabe, add the best mid-level Forward Free agent you can. Give Sam what he wants to stay. Get the best backup goalie you can.

If you choose option 2...probably keep Granato as coach, don't go heavy with free agents (give your current young guys ice time to keep developing).  ENTERTAIN offers for Eichel (not saying to do it, but if he wants out and you can get young, NHL ready guys-plural- you consider it.) Try to resign Reinhart but not overpay, if he demands more entertain a sign and trade (if possible).

 

I'd prefer option 2.  This team is not winning the cup next year.  I want them to be better than they are this year, but to me watching the young players get better and be given time to fail or succeed is fun.  Even if a veteran makes you a bit better, I find no joy in watching a 29-33 year old 3rd line winger be signed to score 15 goals and make you slightly better. 

Edited May 9, 2021 by mjd1001

[Crusader1969]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So now it begins.

What are the odds that McCabe and Ullmark return?  I suspect that McCabe will get a better deal to stay then he will elsewhere, but Ullmark the opposite is probably true.  

I think both come back.   McCabe on a 1 year prove it deal at slightly above league min

Ullmark will resign.  Not sure what other options there will be for him. 
 

[Thorner]

42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So now it begins.

What are the odds that McCabe and Ullmark return?  I suspect that McCabe will get a better deal to stay then he will elsewhere, but Ullmark the opposite is probably true.  

We can bring back McCabe, but I don't think he should be included in the first 3 LHD on the depth chart when planning for next season - you can't count on him to be there. If the cost fits for a guy you expect to be in and out, by all means. He'd be a good player to have in when we can have him in. But if we are penciling him on pair 2, we better have a player on roster who can seamlessly play 2LHD when the need arises. 

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So now it begins.

What are the odds that McCabe and Ullmark return?  I suspect that McCabe will get a better deal to stay then he will elsewhere, but Ullmark the opposite is probably true.  

I'm not sure that Ullmark is going to get a better offer with someone else. The bigger issue with him is who is going to give him the longest term contract. My sense is that Ullmark realizes that in Buffalo he will be in a better position to be a #1 goalie than any other place. And hopefully since Granato took over there is more upside with this young roster than most other places that will be a consideration for him. 

The issue that this organization has to consider when placing a value on McCabe is his durability. His injury record is troublesome. I like him as a player and as a mature presence in the room. But because of his injury history I would be very wary about giving him an extended deal. If I had a choice between keeping Risto or McCabe I would take Risto because of his ability to stay in the lineup. 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not sure that Ullmark is going to get a better offer with someone else. The bigger issue with him is who is going to give him the longest term contract. My sense is that Ullmark realizes that in Buffalo he will be in a better position to be a #1 goalie than any other place. And hopefully since Granato took over there is more upside with this young roster than most other places that will be a consideration for him. 

The issue that this organization has to consider when placing a value on McCabe is his durability. His injury record is troublesome. I like him as a player and as a mature presence in the room. But because of his injury history I would be very wary about giving him an extended deal. If I had a choice between keeping Risto or McCabe I would take Risto because of his ability to stay in the lineup. 

I thing a lot of Sabres fans feel this way, and I strongly disagree.

If I was the Toronto Maple Leafs, I would be looking very hard at Ullmark.

Also, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Boston Bruins. 

Linus is among the cream of the UFA goalie crop and he is going to have some suitors
 

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I thing a lot of Sabres fans feel this way, and I strongly disagree.

If I was the Toronto Maple Leafs, I would be looking very hard at Ullmark.

Also, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Boston Bruins. 

Linus is among the cream of the UFA goalie crop and he is going to have some suitors
 

Toronto's goaltending has been good. They have a talented roster with a number of high cost players. I don't see them making a major expenditure for a goalie. They are doing very well without needing to go outside and outbidding the market to bring in Ullmark, a goalie who has durability issues. I just don't see it happening.   

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Toronto's goaltending has been good. They have a talented roster with a number of high cost players. I don't see them making a major expenditure for a goalie. They are doing very well without needing to go outside and outbidding the market to bring in Ullmark, a goalie who has durability issues. I just don't see it happening.   

Freddie Anderson costs them $5 million and is coming off the books this summer. He will need to be re-signed or replaced.

If he plays well in an extended playoff run he will probably be re-signed. If he does not, there is no way he is coming back.

Ullmark is younger and better and can probably be had for less than $5 million.

[Crusader1969]

Thoughts on Richard Rakell?   Ducks looking to get younger, Sabres looking to improve now 

hasn’t really produced much over the last 2 years but also hasn’t been in the best of situations     Certainly fills a void on the RW 

 

 

[Thorner]

36 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Thoughts on Richard Rakell?   Ducks looking to get younger, Sabres looking to improve now 

hasn’t really produced much over the last 2 years but also hasn’t been in the best of situations     Certainly fills a void on the RW 

 

 

Ya at that contract (1 more year at 3.8) (Full No Movement Clause (jk) he'd be a reasonable fall back option if I couldn't get someone a bit better, but it depends on cost, cause we'd need to protect him. 

42 points in 65 games last year is good. 

26 in 51 this year. 

[Broken Ankles]

  Not sure where the sentiment for limited roster change is coming from.  The Sabres roster in 2021 saw five changes on the forward line compared to the last game in 2020.  The defensive corps was left unchanged, which was a failure of the GM and contributed a last in the league record, and last in goals against.  The goaltender decision was well document and bad luck aside, another demerit for Adams.  I suspect there will be at least seven new faces in the starting line up in October and I hope it’s more.  I’m not married to anyone on the roster The team needs a massive roster change if they want any kind of growth in the future.  They are weak in body and mind.  I can’t help thinking about the statement from Terry Pegula during the blue and gold video when they learn Hall is going to sign and he says, “ we’re not only trying to make the playoffs, were trying to win the cup“.  Just no clue about how tainted the roster was/is.  A team that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in forever is going to be challenging for the Stanley Cup?  By signing one player and not changing any of the pieces on defense or in goal?  If Reinhart is not willing to sign long-term and that affects Jack in some way, shape or form then move them both.  Don’t kick the can down the road any longer.  

   Then move on from Risto, Miller and McCabe.  See if maybe Tampa is willing to move Cernak.  If you take McDonaghs contrat maybe the price is a lot lower.  They are $3.5m over the cap with only 17 players signed next year.  Even If they are fortunate enough to have Seattle pick up a 5+ million dollar contract in Johnson they are still in Cap hell this summer and will need to extricate themselves from one large contract.  Could Calgary be a destination for Sam?  They need a shake up too.  

   Add in an Eakin Buyout,  Yes, better off to give him 2/3’s than his entire salary next year, as opposed to burying in the minors.  He needs the shame of wearing a scarlet ‘B’ on his sweater next season.  And the cap implications are more advantageous for the Sabres in 2022.  Only $583k cap hit, verses $1.3m by keeping him.  Kyle to LTIR.  Seems like it’s easier to prove these days.  I agree with Dudaceck that Linus will be pursued and tempted to leave so no hometown discounts and we should be prepared to look for two goalies.  Maybe Quicke comes back as salary when Jack is traded to the Kings 🎱.  So you need to find only one.

  The only line I’m probably down with returning is Asplund/Mitts/Thompson. The top six needs to be overhauled. And the fourth could be Zemgus, Bjork or Olofsson and a UFA.

[Marvin]

@Broken Ankles Please correct me if I am wrong.

What you are advocating looks to me like a 5 year rebuild.  You trade Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, and Miller.  For what, exactly?  IMHO, you should expect underwhelming returns on all of them.  Now, maybe that turns the team into Las Vegas east if it is done really well, but I would not count on it.

And most of us want to turn over about 1/4 of the roster.  That is not a complete overhaul, but that's hardly minor.  Also, I personally make up line-ups with what we have to see what we need to get.  Ideally, I would get 2 veteran defencemen, 2 goaltenders (1 if Ullmark stays), 2 top-6 forwards (1 if you want Cozens there), and a revamp of the bottom of the line-up after Okposo.  (I do not assume we can LTIR Okposo.  I assume Seattle takes Girgensons.)  That is 4-6 regulars and most of the bottom of the line-up.

I think Eakin in Rochester works better because $900,000 of his $1.3M comes off the books after next year.  If Bjork is here, then he belongs on the 4th-5th lines.  Reider, Sheahan and Caggiua are adequate for 5th line duty, but I would prefer upgrades on all of them.  I want the top guys in Rochester to be NHL-ready youth, not AHL-NHL "'tweeners."

This is not small unless you require Eichel and Reinhart to ge moved.

[Crusader1969]

If you look at the opening night roster of 2021 there will be at least 10 different faces to start 21/22 

thats already pretty significant 

[nfreeman]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So now it begins.

What are the odds that McCabe and Ullmark return?  I suspect that McCabe will get a better deal to stay then he will elsewhere, but Ullmark the opposite is probably true.  

 

7 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think both come back.   McCabe on a 1 year prove it deal at slightly above league min

Ullmark will resign.  Not sure what other options there will be for him. 
 

 

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I thing a lot of Sabres fans feel this way, and I strongly disagree.

If I was the Toronto Maple Leafs, I would be looking very hard at Ullmark.

Also, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Boston Bruins. 

Linus is among the cream of the UFA goalie crop and he is going to have some suitors
 

 

I would like them to bring both guys back, but I think there is less than a 50% likelihood that both are back, and over 50% that both are gone.

If Linus gets a respectable offer from a contending team like the Leafs to be their #1, he is gone unless the Sabres give him a fat long-term contract.

OTOH, it's possible that no one is willing to give him more than a 2-year deal, and the Sabres might get him to stay with a 5-year deal. 

As for McCabe, he's not expected back from his injury until a couple of months into the season, innit?  So anything could happen there.

 

48 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

@Broken Ankles Please correct me if I am wrong.

What you are advocating looks to me like a 5 year rebuild.  You trade Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, and Miller.  For what, exactly?  IMHO, you should expect underwhelming returns on all of them.  Now, maybe that turns the team into Las Vegas east if it is done really well, but I would not count on it.

And most of us want to turn over about 1/4 of the roster.  That is not a complete overhaul, but that's hardly minor.  Also, I personally make up line-ups with what we have to see what we need to get.  Ideally, I would get 2 veteran defencemen, 2 goaltenders (1 if Ullmark stays), 2 top-6 forwards (1 if you want Cozens there), and a revamp of the bottom of the line-up after Okposo.  (I do not assume we can LTIR Okposo.  I assume Seattle takes Girgensons.)  That is 4-6 regulars and most of the bottom of the line-up.

I think Eakin in Rochester works better because $900,000 of his $1.3M comes off the books after next year.  If Bjork is here, then he belongs on the 4th-5th lines.  Reider, Sheahan and Caggiua are adequate for 5th line duty, but I would prefer upgrades on all of them.  I want the top guys in Rochester to be NHL-ready youth, not AHL-NHL "'tweeners."

This is not small unless you require Eichel and Reinhart to ge moved.

I agree with almost all of this, but I have a hard time seeing Seattle taking Zemgus, who is a decent player but very replaceable, overpaid and coming off a major injury.

I think it will be Borgen or Asplund.

 

[Crusader1969]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Ya at that contract (1 more year at 3.8) (Full No Movement Clause (jk) he'd be a reasonable fall back option if I couldn't get someone a bit better, but it depends on cost, cause we'd need to protect him. 

42 points in 65 games last year is good. 

26 in 51 this year. 

I guess that’s the big question - what would he cost.   Could they get a 1st rounder for him at the deadline? 

 

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Ya at that contract (1 more year at 3.8) (Full No Movement Clause (jk) he'd be a reasonable fall back option if I couldn't get someone a bit better, but it depends on cost, cause we'd need to protect him. 

42 points in 65 games last year is good. 

26 in 51 this year. 

It also gives them another year to see what they have In Peterka and Quinn

They would then have a depth chart of:

Rakell 
cozens / Samson
Thompson
Okposo 

with Quinn and Peterka knocking on the door 

 

 

 

[Crusader1969]

22 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I guess that’s the big question - what would he cost.   Could they get a 1st rounder for him at the deadline? 

 

It also gives them another year to see what they have In Peterka and Quinn

They would then have a depth chart of:

Rakell 
cozens / Samson
Thompson
Okposo 

with Quinn and Peterka knocking on the door 

 

 

 

While I’m talking to the Ducks , I’m seeing what it takes to bring back Deslauriers back

4th line 

Delauriers Zemgus  Okposo 

 

 

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

@Broken Ankles Please correct me if I am wrong.

What you are advocating looks to me like a 5 year rebuild.  You trade Eichel, Reinhart, Ristolainen, and Miller.  For what, exactly?  IMHO, you should expect underwhelming returns on all of them.  Now, maybe that turns the team into Las Vegas east if it is done really well, but I would not count on it.

And most of us want to turn over about 1/4 of the roster.  That is not a complete overhaul, but that's hardly minor.  Also, I personally make up line-ups with what we have to see what we need to get.  Ideally, I would get 2 veteran defencemen, 2 goaltenders (1 if Ullmark stays), 2 top-6 forwards (1 if you want Cozens there), and a revamp of the bottom of the line-up after Okposo.  (I do not assume we can LTIR Okposo.  I assume Seattle takes Girgensons.)  That is 4-6 regulars and most of the bottom of the line-up.

I think Eakin in Rochester works better because $900,000 of his $1.3M comes off the books after next year.  If Bjork is here, then he belongs on the 4th-5th lines.  Reider, Sheahan and Caggiua are adequate for 5th line duty, but I would prefer upgrades on all of them.  I want the top guys in Rochester to be NHL-ready youth, not AHL-NHL "'tweeners."

This is not small unless you require Eichel and Reinhart to ge moved.

Marvin - Not sure what your plan is but 1/4 is 6 players, so my guess of seven isn’t too far off.  Zemgus is definitely not going to get selected by Seattle and will be on the roster in October.  If your keeping the status quo of Miller or Risto, who is losing a starting position on the back end, and more importantly how are you paying them?  If you keep Jack and pay Sam, Dahlin, Linus, Joki, Asplund, and Borgen, and you cannot move KO to LTIR, you have ~ $4m to sign a back up goalie and your veteran Defenseman.  So that’s who, another Matt Irwin?  No thanks.  I don’t think moving your top two Forwards implies a 5 year rebuild.  If the return includes Byfield, he will be a 70 point player in probably two years.  So much of this rests in the hands of Sam accepting a long term deal. He might just want to sign a one year and see what’s out there next year.  And I’m saying if that’s his tact, you need to move him. And the return would not be futures but current roster players with immediate contributions.

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

Marvin - Not sure what your plan is but 1/4 is 6 players, so my guess of seven isn’t too far off.  Zemgus is definitely not going to get selected by Seattle and will be on the roster in October.  If your keeping the status quo of Miller or Risto, who is losing a starting position on the back end, and more importantly how are you paying them?  If you keep Jack and pay Sam, Dahlin, Linus, Joki, Asplund, and Borgen, and you cannot move KO to LTIR, you have ~ $4m to sign a back up goalie and your veteran Defenseman.  So that’s who, another Matt Irwin?  No thanks.  I don’t think moving your top two Forwards implies a 5 year rebuild.  If the return includes Byfield, he will be a 70 point player in probably two years.  So much of this rests in the hands of Sam accepting a long term deal. He might just want to sign a one year and see what’s out there next year.  And I’m saying if that’s his tact, you need to move him. And the return would not be futures but current roster players with immediate contributions.

I used @Gabrielor's highest numbers from page 1 of this thread as a base.  I figure cap usage based upon 5 forward lines, 4 defence pairs, and 3-6 goaltenders.  We can quibble about those, but they look like good projections.  I worked this out further down the page.  In sum:

I protect Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Asplund, Mittlestadt, Thompson, Dahlin, Borgen, and Jokiharu.  Neither Cozens nor Ruotsalainen need protection.  Seattle should not Ristolainen because he is over-priced.

I am keeping neither Ristolainen nor Miller.  I priced 2 higher-end, physical, veteran, stay-at-home defencemen at $7M and goaltending at $7M.  Assuming one of the goalies is Ullmark, this makes my back-end:

Dahlin-Vet

Vet-Jokiharu

Borgen-Bryson

Samuelsson-Fitzgerald

Ullmark

Vet

Pekka-Lukkonen

Those who want to spend more than $3M on forwards can instead get good, steady vets for the 3rd pair and use UPL in Buffalo to drive that total from $14M to about $10M.

My forward lines before doing anything and with Girgensons here, are:

Skinner-Eichel-Cozens

Ruotsalainen-Reinhart-Olofsson

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson

Girgensons-Bjork-Okposo

Murray-Eakin-Caggiula

IMHO, this requires a top 6 upgrade and some hockey trades for different kinds of players.  Doing that with $3M will not be easy, but it is feasible.  If you have more, then you have more options.

Obviously, my 5th line needs an upgrade at all 3 positions.

Edited May 10, 2021 by Marvin, Sabres Fan
Clarity.

[Hoss]

Yes, I know this is wildly unlikely but had a little fun.

Victor Oloffson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Mattias Samuelsson and this year's 2nd (our own) to Vancouver for Brock Boeser.

Sign Jaden Schwartz (LW from STL)

Forward group something like this:

Schwartz - Eichel - Cozens

Skinner - Reinhart - Boeser

Bjork - Mittelstadt - Ruotsalainen

Girgensons - Asplund - Okposo

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I used @Gabrielor's highest numbers from page 1 of this thread as a base.  I figure cap usage based upon 5 forward lines, 4 defence pairs, and 3-6 goaltenders.  We can quibble about those, but they look like good projections.  I worked this out further down the page.  In sum:

I protect Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Asplund, Mittlestadt, Thompson, Dahlin, Borgen, and Jokiharu.  Neither Cozens nor Ruotsalainen need protection.  Seattle should not Ristolainen because he is over-priced.

I am keeping neither Ristolainen nor Miller.  I priced 2 higher-end, physical, veteran, stay-at-home defencemen at $7M and goaltending at $7M.  Assuming one of the goalies is Ullmark, this makes my back-end:

Dahlin-Vet

Vet-Jokiharu

Borgen-Bryson

Samuelsson-Fitzgerald

Ullmark

Vet

Pekka-Lukkonen

Those who want to spend more than $3M on forwards can instead get good, steady vets for the 3rd pair and use UPL in Buffalo to drive that total from $14M to about $10M.

My forward lines before doing anything and with Girgensons here, are:

Skinner-Eichel-Cozens

Ruotsalainen-Reinhart-Olofsson

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson

Girgensons-Bjork-Okposo

Murray-Eakin-Caggiula

IMHO, this requires a top 6 upgrade and some hockey trades for different kinds of players.  Doing that with $3M will not be easy, but it is feasible.  If you have more, then you have more options.

Obviously, my 5th line needs an upgrade at all 3 positions.

Top 6 is not a playoff caliber group. Skinner (until proven he can play like 2019), Olofsson and R2 are not top six players.  Victor is a nice asset on PP, and a 10-12 minute/night 5v5.   And if they somehow were carried to playoffs by a Herculean effort by Jack or Sam they would get absolutely demolished in the first round. Cozens is also a stretch on FL#1.  His scoring is at a Mitts D +2  level (.32/game).  Possibly could be a top line forward.  Only a handful in the last decade drafted outside top five have started on a top line after one NHL season and all of them showed scoring prowess immediately.  I believe he has the potential and more importantly he has other qualities desirable in this organization. It might be nice if he takes a giant leap to finish the year on the top line, but planning for him to start the season would only make me question Adams more than I do know.