Brawndo Posted May 1, 2021 Report Posted May 1, 2021 The site Evolving Wild released it contract projections for UFAs/RFAs for this Summer. Samson Reinhart is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 6 year 6.9 Million AAV Deal Rasmus Dahlin is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 6 year 6.1 AAV Million Deal Henry Jokiharhu is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 2.4 Million AAV Deal Casey Mittlestadt is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 2 Million AAV Deal Rasmus Asplund is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 884k AAV Deal Wil Borgen is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 1 year 754k AAV Deal Jake McCabe is projected to sign with a different team on a one year 1.039 AAV Deal prove it deal 2 1 Quote
LGR4GM Posted May 1, 2021 Report Posted May 1, 2021 Reinhart at that for that term... yes yes yes 4 Quote
Marvin Posted May 1, 2021 Report Posted May 1, 2021 I would be thrilled if that's how our offseason went. Quote
Brawndo Posted May 1, 2021 Author Report Posted May 1, 2021 Notable UFAs from other teams Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV Let me know if you want any other projections 1 Quote
Norcal Posted May 1, 2021 Report Posted May 1, 2021 Damn. Goodrow and Coleman are getting huge raises. I was hoping they would get half that amount. The more Lightning games I watch the more I see why they deserve these numbers though. Quote
Brawndo Posted May 1, 2021 Author Report Posted May 1, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 7:10 PM, nfreeman said: What do we know about that site? Expand It’s a paid site that was pretty accurate with their projections over the past few years. The cap crunch from this year did mess with a few projections this past offseason. On 5/1/2021 at 6:39 PM, sweetlou said: Goalies?? Expand They do not have a formula for goalies yet, so no projections for them. 1 Quote
#freejame Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 6:34 PM, Norcal said: Damn. Goodrow and Coleman are getting huge raises. I was hoping they would get half that amount. The more Lightning games I watch the more I see why they deserve these numbers though. Expand Yeah, that’s kind of what I’m expecting. They’re both going to cross into overpaid territory and out of the range I’d pay for either, even though they are two of my top targets. On 5/1/2021 at 6:18 PM, Brawndo said: Notable UFAs from other teams Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV Let me know if you want any other projections Expand Landeskog please Quote
Brawndo Posted May 2, 2021 Author Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 12:50 AM, #freejame said: Yeah, that’s kind of what I’m expecting. They’re both going to cross into overpaid territory and out of the range I’d pay for either, even though they are two of my top targets. Landeskog please Expand 8 years 9.3 Million AAV Quote
Norcal Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 1:41 AM, Brawndo said: 8 years 9.3 Million AAV Expand Oh wow. Really? I don't think he'll get that. These are fun. What about... Nick Bonino Sam Bennett Quote
#freejame Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 1:41 AM, Brawndo said: 8 years 9.3 Million AAV Expand Geesh that’s a raise Quote
tom webster Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 Those numbers seem way high. Even with the née TV deal the cap is expected to remain flat. I’d be surprised to see any contender pay those numbers. Quote
tom webster Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 6:18 PM, Brawndo said: Notable UFAs from other teams Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV Let me know if you want any other projections Expand If Danault gets anywhere near those numbers...... 1 Quote
tom webster Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/1/2021 at 6:18 PM, Brawndo said: Notable UFAs from other teams Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV Let me know if you want any other projections Expand How does Danault get only $600K less then Sam? I’m calling bunk to these numbers unless Seattle drafts all AHL’ers and then signs 12 free agents to $6M deals. Quote
Broken Ankles Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 Sam’s first bridge deal was $3.6m (avoided arbitration). Not sure how Dahlin’s contribution in comparison would yield that much better. Number 1 overall selections tend to avoid arbitration but I can see this being a 2 year bridge deal with an AAV in the $4.5m-5m range. He has not earned a term of 6 years. Quote
triumph_communes Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 (edited) Reinhart yeesh that’s too much Dahlin discount. Sign him for 8 years Edited May 2, 2021 by triumph_communes Quote
Brawndo Posted May 2, 2021 Author Report Posted May 2, 2021 https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolving-hockey-contract-projections/ Here is the article that explains how they come up with contract projections. It includes a link to the spreadsheet from their 2019 Projections, as well as a chart of their 2020 Projections. FWIW they had Skinner at 8 years 8.3 AAV. Quote
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 (edited) Reinhart is just going to sign a 1 year deal or traded Hes not going to waste his time for a rebuilding team Edited May 2, 2021 by Buffalonill Quote
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 Buffalo should go long term with Mittlestadt 1 Quote
Hoss Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 6:02 AM, Broken Ankles said: Sam’s first bridge deal was $3.6m (avoided arbitration). Not sure how Dahlin’s contribution in comparison would yield that much better. Number 1 overall selections tend to avoid arbitration but I can see this being a 2 year bridge deal with an AAV in the $4.5m-5m range. He has not earned a term of 6 years. Expand Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step. On 5/2/2021 at 4:38 PM, Buffalonill said: Buffalo should go long term with Mittlestadt Expand I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here. 1 Quote
Broken Ankles Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 7:11 PM, Hoss said: Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step. I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here. Expand Different levels of “bust potential” with both. Dahlin has displayed glimpses of greatness on offense, but similar train wreck qualities in his own zone still not resolved and displayed as recently as Thursday. So the term bust is used very loosely. Not outside a top 4, just not a #1 overall cornerstone piece. I cannot just hope these traits get fixed. And without a drastic improvement in such I would not commit term, hence my preference to a bridge. Diff’rent Strokes I guess. Quote
GASabresIUFAN Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 I'll take those projections, but the McCabe deal is way off. What does he have to prove? I'd also try to lock up Mitts longer then 2 years. Quote
Buffalonill Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 7:11 PM, Hoss said: Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step. I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here. Expand So you want to risk another reinhart situation? This is the casey we're getting the video game fast food junkie is gone If you have the opportunity to sign a core player for cheap you do it . Quote
Taro T Posted May 2, 2021 Report Posted May 2, 2021 On 5/2/2021 at 7:40 PM, Broken Ankles said: Different levels of “bust potential” with both. Dahlin has displayed glimpses of greatness on offense, but similar train wreck qualities in his own zone still not resolved and displayed as recently as Thursday. So the term bust is used very loosely. Not outside a top 4, just not a #1 overall cornerstone piece. I cannot just hope these traits get fixed. And without a drastic improvement in such I would not commit term, hence my preference to a bridge. Diff’rent Strokes I guess. Expand Realizing this is not a popular sentiment, but really believe that Dahlin can improve his play in his own zone & especially in transition back into his zone, if he isn't paired with either of the Sabres Finnish D-men. (Ok, people will agree w/ 1/2 of that. 😉 ) Yes, he plays well offensively w/ Jokiharju, but that pairing is still scary in its own zone & facing odd man rushes. Put Dahlin w/ Borgen & his defensive play will ramp up tremendously because he won't need to be the guy driving that play. (Jokiharju IMHO needs to be paired up w/ a guy who's more stable in his own zone as well. If Samuelsson's ready for full time NHL action, make that the 3rd pairing.) Fully expect that Dahlin will be at minimum be adequate in his own end (he usually is adequate there now, but does still have some spectacular miscues), if not downright good to very good given two more seasons. A partner like Borgen w/ a defensive focus won't hurt any either. Lock him in for 8 more now if they can. They won't regret it. Quote
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