Evolving Wild Contract Projections for the 2021 Offseason

[Brawndo]

The site Evolving Wild released it contract projections for UFAs/RFAs for this Summer.

Samson Reinhart is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 6 year 6.9 Million AAV Deal 

Rasmus Dahlin is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 6 year 6.1 AAV Million Deal 

Henry Jokiharhu is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 2.4 Million AAV Deal

Casey Mittlestadt is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 2 Million AAV Deal 

Rasmus Asplund is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 2 year 884k AAV Deal 

Wil Borgen is projected to stay with the Sabres on a 1 year 754k AAV Deal

Jake McCabe is projected to sign with a different team on a one year 1.039 AAV Deal prove it deal

[LGR4GM]

Reinhart at that for that term... yes yes yes

[Marvin]

I would be thrilled if that's how our offseason went.

[Brawndo]

Notable UFAs from other teams 

Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV 

Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV 

Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV 

Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV 

Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV 

Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV 

 

Let me know if you want any other projections 

[Norcal]

Damn. Goodrow and Coleman are getting huge raises. I was hoping they would get half that amount.

The more Lightning games I watch the more I see why they deserve these numbers though. 

[sweetlou]

Goalies??

[nfreeman]

What do we know about that site?

[Brawndo]

41 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

What do we know about that site?

It’s a paid site that was pretty accurate with their projections over the past few years. 
 

The cap crunch from this year did mess with a few projections this past offseason. 

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

Goalies??

They do not have a formula for goalies yet, so no projections for them. 

[#freejame]

6 hours ago, Norcal said:

Damn. Goodrow and Coleman are getting huge raises. I was hoping they would get half that amount.

The more Lightning games I watch the more I see why they deserve these numbers though. 

Yeah, that’s kind of what I’m expecting. They’re both going to cross into overpaid territory and out of the range I’d pay for either, even though they are two of my top targets. 

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Notable UFAs from other teams 

Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV 

Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV 

Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV 

Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV 

Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV 

Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV 

 

Let me know if you want any other projections 

Landeskog please 

[Brawndo]

50 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Yeah, that’s kind of what I’m expecting. They’re both going to cross into overpaid territory and out of the range I’d pay for either, even though they are two of my top targets. 

Landeskog please 

8 years 9.3 Million AAV 

[Norcal]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

8 years 9.3 Million AAV 

Oh wow. Really? I don't think he'll get that. These are fun.

What about...

Nick Bonino

Sam Bennett

 

[#freejame]

25 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

8 years 9.3 Million AAV 

Geesh that’s a raise 

[tom webster]

Those numbers seem way high. Even with the née TV deal the cap is expected to remain flat. I’d be surprised to see any contender pay those numbers.

[tom webster]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Notable UFAs from other teams 

Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV 

Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV 

Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV 

Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV 

Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV 

Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV 

 

Let me know if you want any other projections 

If Danault gets anywhere near those numbers......

[tom webster]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Notable UFAs from other teams 

Dougie Hamilton is 8 years 9.2 million AAV 

Phillip Danualt is 6 Years 6.3 Million AAV 

Thomas Tatar is 3 Years 5.4 Million AAV 

Brandon Saad is 4 Years 5.05 Million AAV 

Blake Coleman is 4 Years 4.75 Million AAV 

Barclay Goodrow is 4 Years 3.0 Million AAV 

 

Let me know if you want any other projections 

How does Danault get only $600K less then Sam? I’m calling bunk to these numbers unless Seattle drafts all AHL’ers and then signs 12 free agents to $6M deals.

[Broken Ankles]

Sam’s first bridge deal was $3.6m (avoided arbitration).  Not sure how Dahlin’s contribution in comparison would yield that much better.  Number 1 overall selections  tend to avoid arbitration but I can see this being a 2 year bridge deal with an AAV in the $4.5m-5m range.  He has not earned a term of 6 years. 

[triumph_communes]

Reinhart yeesh that’s too much

Dahlin discount.  Sign him for 8 years 

Edited May 2, 2021 by triumph_communes

[Brawndo]

https://evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolving-hockey-contract-projections/

 

Here is the article that explains how they come up with contract projections. It includes a link to the spreadsheet from their 2019 Projections, as well as a chart of their 2020 Projections. 

FWIW they had Skinner at 8 years 8.3 AAV. 

[Buffalonill]

Reinhart is just going to sign a 1 year deal or traded 

Hes not going to waste his time for a rebuilding team 

Edited May 2, 2021 by Buffalonill

[Buffalonill]

Buffalo should go long term with Mittlestadt 

[Hoss]

13 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Sam’s first bridge deal was $3.6m (avoided arbitration).  Not sure how Dahlin’s contribution in comparison would yield that much better.  Number 1 overall selections  tend to avoid arbitration but I can see this being a 2 year bridge deal with an AAV in the $4.5m-5m range.  He has not earned a term of 6 years. 

Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step.

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Buffalo should go long term with Mittlestadt 

I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here.

[Broken Ankles]

21 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step.

I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here.

Different levels of “bust potential” with both.  Dahlin has displayed glimpses of greatness on offense, but similar train wreck qualities  in his own zone still not resolved and displayed as recently as Thursday.  So the term bust is used very loosely.  Not outside a top 4, just not a #1 overall cornerstone piece.  I cannot just hope these traits get fixed.  And without a drastic improvement in such  I would not commit term, hence my preference to a bridge.  Diff’rent Strokes I guess.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'll take those projections, but the McCabe deal is way off.  What does he have to prove?  

I'd also try to lock up Mitts longer then 2 years.

[Buffalonill]

34 minutes ago, Hoss said:

Dahlin has shown me enough for me to want to commit long-term before he takes that next step.

I don’t believe they should. There’s still plenty of bust potential here.

 

So you want to risk another  reinhart situation? This is the casey we're getting the video game  fast food junkie is gone 

If you have the opportunity to sign a core player for cheap you do it .

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Different levels of “bust potential” with both.  Dahlin has displayed glimpses of greatness on offense, but similar train wreck qualities  in his own zone still not resolved and displayed as recently as Thursday.  So the term bust is used very loosely.  Not outside a top 4, just not a #1 overall cornerstone piece.  I cannot just hope these traits get fixed.  And without a drastic improvement in such  I would not commit term, hence my preference to a bridge.  Diff’rent Strokes I guess.

Realizing this is not a popular sentiment, but really believe that Dahlin can improve his play in his own zone & especially in transition back into his zone, if he isn't paired with either of the Sabres Finnish D-men.  (Ok, people will agree w/ 1/2 of that.  😉 )

Yes, he plays well offensively w/ Jokiharju, but that pairing is still scary in its own zone & facing odd man rushes.  Put Dahlin w/ Borgen & his defensive play will ramp up tremendously because he won't need to be the guy driving that play.

(Jokiharju IMHO needs to be paired up w/ a guy who's more stable in his own zone as well.  If Samuelsson's ready for full time NHL action, make that the 3rd pairing.)

Fully expect that Dahlin will be at minimum be adequate in his own end (he usually is adequate there now, but does still have some spectacular miscues), if not downright good to very good given two more seasons.  A partner like Borgen w/ a defensive focus won't hurt any either.

Lock him in for 8 more now if they can.  They won't regret it.