How good or bad is this team really?

[Radar]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is the illusion I'm afraid is happening with management. This team is not that good. Yes, there is a youthful energy that Granato has unleashed but there are so many weaknesses and so many mistakes still and key positions are big question marks (like goaltending). We still have the worst contract in hockey on this team (Skinner) and we are a long way from being a playoff team.

What we're seeing now is like the 4th quarter of a football game where your team is down something like 36-7, the opposition goes into prevent, you get a few turnovers and score a bunch of late points but still lose 36-33 and everybody thinks it was close. It's not. 

Agree on the goaltending. I agree with you on the Skinner contract. Disagree that we're "a long way away from a playoff team". It will take some well placed moves but I think we're closer than what you think.

[PerreaultForever]

1 minute ago, Radar said:

Agree on the goaltending. I agree with you on the Skinner contract. Disagree that we're "a long way away from a playoff team". It will take some well placed moves but I think we're closer than what you think.

Consider the opposition. In this division right now, we are only (arguably) better than New Jersey. Rangers with their lottery wins have more youth trending up than we do. Philly is kind of hard to figure so leave that one as a question mark. But way behind the rest. 

In our old division we're dead last. Maybe we could be ahead of Ottawa but I think they are poised to move up. Tampa? Florida? Toronto? Boston? How exactly do you see us close to the playoffs???

[Radar]

18 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Consider the opposition. In this division right now, we are only (arguably) better than New Jersey. Rangers with their lottery wins have more youth trending up than we do. Philly is kind of hard to figure so leave that one as a question mark. But way behind the rest. 

In our old division we're dead last. Maybe we could be ahead of Ottawa but I think they are poised to move up. Tampa? Florida? Toronto? Boston? How exactly do you see us close to the playoffs???

Good points. Agree we're in tough competition.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Consider the opposition. In this division right now, we are only (arguably) better than New Jersey. Rangers with their lottery wins have more youth trending up than we do. Philly is kind of hard to figure so leave that one as a question mark. But way behind the rest. 

In our old division we're dead last. Maybe we could be ahead of Ottawa but I think they are poised to move up. Tampa? Florida? Toronto? Boston? How exactly do you see us close to the playoffs???

You never want to play that game of divisional hierarchies. It’s not going to help anything. This isn’t the Bills trapped behind the Patriots for the only not WC spot. We can be better than both Ottawa and Detroit at minimum with a healthy Eichel and solid goaltending. From there we just have to play well in our divisional series to take a spot. Tampa Bay, Florida, Boston, Toronto and Montreal are all ahead of us in one manner or another. But there is nothing that prevents us from winning against any of them. There is no Tom Brady to pull rabbits out of his *** or Refs to help them on a crucial 3rd Down. Hockey is a team sport through and through and if our team can outwork and out will even Tampa we have a serious shot at winning.

Doom and gloom just isn’t worth it; this is meant to be fun and entertaining so let’s keep it that way. Let’s trade Risto and maybe Olofsson (if we can get a better 200 ft player), re sign Reinhart and Ullmark. Grab a goalie and a healthy Eichel and shock the world like Minnesota did this year.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is the illusion I'm afraid is happening with management. This team is not that good. Yes, there is a youthful energy that Granato has unleashed but there are so many weaknesses and so many mistakes still and key positions are big question marks (like goaltending). We still have the worst contract in hockey on this team (Skinner) and we are a long way from being a playoff team.

What we're seeing now is like the 4th quarter of a football game where your team is down something like 36-7, the opposition goes into prevent, you get a few turnovers and score a bunch of late points but still lose 36-33 and everybody thinks it was close. It's not. 

If you add Jack with the continued progression of our young players this is a mid-tier team. Or another way to look at it is that it has moved from the bottom tier to the the mid-level. That is not an insignificant move forward. Most of us agree that getting solid to good goaltending on a consistent basis is the key to being a solid team. Is Ullmark a #1 goalie (assuming he is re-signed)? I consider him capable of being a mid-level #1. Is he durable enough to count on for the long-haul? I'm not sure.  

Respectfully, I see things differently than you do. I understand why you have come to your position but my assessment is simply different. C'est la vie. 

 

[Marvin]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is the illusion I'm afraid is happening with management. This team is not that good. Yes, there is a youthful energy that Granato has unleashed but there are so many weaknesses and so many mistakes still and key positions are big question marks (like goaltending). We still have the worst contract in hockey on this team (Skinner) and we are a long way from being a playoff team.

What we're seeing now is like the 4th quarter of a football game where your team is down something like 36-7, the opposition goes into prevent, you get a few turnovers and score a bunch of late points but still lose 36-33 and everybody thinks it was close. It's not. 

I am using the following as a base line-up for discussion (5 forward lines, 4 defence pairs, and 3 goaltenders).  Please follow-up with where I am being too optimistic.

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson

Ruotsalainen-Cozens-Bjork

Reider-Sheahan-Olofsson

Caggiula-Girgensons-Okposo

Dahlin-Bryson

Borgen-Jokiharu

McCabe-Ristolainen

Samuelsson-Miller

Ullmark

Tokarski

Pekka-Lukkonen

Let me take what I perceive as our weaknesses in decreasing order of importance.

1. Goaltending.  This is the most glaring.  Tokarski and UPL are fine for Rochester, but we need 2 in Buffalo.  1 can be Ullmark.  The other should be someone who can play at least 30 games.  This probably must happen in free agency.

2. Experienced mentor for the young defencemen.  The youngsters are very promising, but need to improve their defencive awareness and positioning.  I need someone headier than Ristolainen, Miller, or McCabe back there.  As a group, they still don't pass well enough and are mistake-prone.  I think we can find this kind of player in free agency -- preferably 2.

3. Bottom 6 forward depth.  I need the entire 4th line to be like the LOG line has been the previous 2.5 years and the next 3 guys up to play that way effectively.  We need to be able to still ice a solid line-up even if there are a few injuries.  For far too long, we have had a least 1 line getting crushed for most of the season.  These guys make up the bulk of free agents at forward.

4. Variety of forward.  Yes, I wish more of that top 9 finished their checks.  Indeed, Skinner could be that much more effective if he learnt it.  However, you will need to move someone out in a hockey trade to acquire that kind of player.

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Marvin, Sabres Fan
Forgot Olofsson

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

 

4. Variety of forward.  Yes, I wish more of that top 9 finished their checks.  Indeed, Skinner could be that much more effective if he learnt it.  However, you will need to move someone out in a hockey trade to acquire that kind of player.

 

I will be very disappointed if we don’t do that this offseason.

[sabremike]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is the illusion I'm afraid is happening with management. This team is not that good. Yes, there is a youthful energy that Granato has unleashed but there are so many weaknesses and so many mistakes still and key positions are big question marks (like goaltending). We still have the worst contract in hockey on this team (Skinner) and we are a long way from being a playoff team.

What we're seeing now is like the 4th quarter of a football game where your team is down something like 36-7, the opposition goes into prevent, you get a few turnovers and score a bunch of late points but still lose 36-33 and everybody thinks it was close. It's not. 

We are playing teams fighting for either positioning or their playoff lives with half our starters out and being forced to use the 4th and 5th goalies on our organizational depth chart and having to undo all the damage that conman inflicted on everyone. Being competitive under those conditions is an incredibly positive sign. If we resign Ulmark and find a competent professional #2 goalie making the playoffs next season is well within the realm of possibilities.

[JoeSchmoe]

28 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson

Ruotsalainen-Cozens-Bjork

Reider-Sheahan-Caggiula

Girgensons-Eakin-Okposo

Where's Olofsson?

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Where's Olofsson?

Nice catch.  Thanks.

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

If you add Jack with the continued progression of our young players this is a mid-tier team. Or another way to look at it is that it has moved from the bottom tier to the the mid-level. That is not an insignificant move forward. Most of us agree that getting solid to good goaltending on a consistent basis is the key to being a solid team. Is Ullmark a #1 goalie (assuming he is re-signed)? I consider him capable of being a mid-level #1. Is he durable enough to count on for the long-haul? I'm not sure.  

Respectfully, I see things differently than you do. I understand why you have come to your position but my assessment is simply different. C'est la vie. 

 

The team is going to have to prove this. I will believe it when I see it. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I am using the following as a base line-up for discussion (5 forward lines, 4 defence pairs, and 3 goaltenders).  Please follow-up with where I am being too optimistic.

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart

Asplund-Mittlestadt-Thompson

Ruotsalainen-Cozens-Bjork

Reider-Sheahan-Olofsson

Caggiula-Girgensons-Okposo

Dahlin-Bryson

Borgen-Jokiharu

McCabe-Ristolainen

Samuelsson-Miller

Ullmark

Tokarski

Pekka-Lukkonen

Let me take what I perceive as our weaknesses in decreasing order of importance.

1. Goaltending.  This is the most glaring.  Tokarski and UPL are fine for Rochester, but we need 2 in Buffalo.  1 can be Ullmark.  The other should be someone who can play at least 30 games.  This probably must happen in free agency.

2. Experienced mentor for the young defencemen.  The youngsters are very promising, but need to improve their defencive awareness and positioning.  I need someone headier than Ristolainen, Miller, or McCabe back there.  As a group, they still don't pass well enough and are mistake-prone.  I think we can find this kind of player in free agency -- preferably 2.

3. Bottom 6 forward depth.  I need the entire 4th line to be like the LOG line has been the previous 2.5 years and the next 3 guys up to play that way effectively.  We need to be able to still ice a solid line-up even if there are a few injuries.  For far too long, we have had a least 1 line getting crushed for most of the season.  These guys make up the bulk of free agents at forward.

4. Variety of forward.  Yes, I wish more of that top 9 finished their checks.  Indeed, Skinner could be that much more effective if he learnt it.  However, you will need to move someone out in a hockey trade to acquire that kind of player.

 

Well, there's nothing there to really argue with, but a lot of it is hopeful and wishful. 

1. Would Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart be the line you want? We'd like Skinner @40 goals again but he's looking so useless I have no faith he will just rebound on that line and we didn't win with that top line before so why would we now?

2. Mitts has shown vast improvement and the ability to score, but that line is flawed as is and I'm not sure how it holds up for a whole season. My thoughts on what Thompson needs to do are all over numerous threads.

3. I like R2 with Cozens, not so sure about Bjork and I think Seattle will take him. 

4. I agree on the D and it brings up questions. Overall it's moving in the right direction but not sure if it's there yet.

5. The bottom is iffy at best. We have no size, no toughness, no good checkers. This is not a balanced team. 

6. The goaltending has to be a lot better and more reliable. and durable. 

So you need to add pieces, as you said, but will we? who? for who? Will Eichel buy in? Will the cultural shift continue or be back to the same again? 

I'm just not sure, and I'm hesitant to be too optimistic too soon. 

[North Buffalo]

Yeh not gonna vote... too many question marks.  Not a potentially horrible team but not sure if they are emerging yet... need more talent though some is there and need to prove emerging by being somewhat consistent over a whole season.  Playoffs ? who knows... Again I hope they dont make any stupid trades.  No long term out of town vet signings.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Yeh not gonna vote... too many question marks.  Not a potentially horrible team but not sure if they are emerging yet... need more talent though some is there and need to prove emerging by being somewhat consistent over a whole season.  Playoffs ? who knows... Again I hope they dont make any stupid trades.  No long term out of town vet signings.

My sense is that the direction has been established, and it revolves around developing one's own players instead of bringing in high cost players (As you noted.) Our blue line has a lot of young players who should grow and get better together. It's notable that the Mitts/Thompson/Asplund line played together in Rochester and now seem to play as a cohesive and productive line. Getting three recent AHL players to demonstrate that they can capably play in the NHL in one year is a success story. Then next test is how much better can they get?

I'm not going to make a declarative proclamation about how good this group will become because that would be foolish. If as a Sabre fan you are not cautious about over-evaluating the roster then this organization's inglorious recent history has taught you nothing. 

As @Thornyand many others have repeatedly stated getting a quality tandem at goal will more than anything accelerate the upswing of this low swinging franchise. And the return to form for Jack should be a positive factor.

Put me in the cautiously optimistic column. For those in the highly skeptical column my response is I understand where you are coming from.  

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

What would it take to move Skinner other than his agreement? 50 percent retention is a given. Then what? There's a much bigger market for a 4.5 million dollar Jeff Skinner than a 9 million dollar one. Yeah that ongoing cap hit will suck but it's half of what it would have been.

Play him with Jack for 82 games next season, watch him score 30 goals, and if you still want to move him, shouldn't have much of a problem, especially if you retain.

16 hours ago, Radar said:

Agree on the goaltending. I agree with you on the Skinner contract. Disagree that we're "a long way away from a playoff team". It will take some well placed moves but I think we're closer than what you think.

I've been in this camp for a good long while. Mostly because we haven't/hadn't filled 2C. There's a big gap between us and other teams, but because 2C is SUCH an important spot on a hockey team, one well placed move, as you mentioned, could have made up a ton of that gap. Especially when that 2C would be afforded the luxury of playing behind JE. 

The GM's took their swings at at, Botterill barely, and their outside acquisitions couldn't get it done. Fingers crossed - but it looks like we may have it covered, now, internally. If Cozens/Casey lock down 2/3C, I think with the return of Jack (please don't deal him) we'll see centre depth that leads to the type of consistency we haven't seen in a while. When we had ROR at 2C, he was a better all-around hockey player than JE. Now Jack is a superstar - let's let the Cs below him benefit, and therefore, Buffalo. We're talking a solid shot at the best C depth here since the fateful summer of 07. 14 years, longer than a Sirius stint in Azkaban. 

From there, it's going to be things like properly addressing the goaltending situation that gets us into the playoffs. We have wingers. I'm one of the few that sees a return to form for Skinner if he's paired back with Jack, that configuration has only proven to work, it's never been proven that it doesn't work. Stick 14th overall in the NHL goal scorer Reinhart on the other wing and get the band back together, this time with depth behind them.

Edited April 25, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Consider the opposition. In this division right now, we are only (arguably) better than New Jersey. Rangers with their lottery wins have more youth trending up than we do. Philly is kind of hard to figure so leave that one as a question mark. But way behind the rest. 

In our old division we're dead last. Maybe we could be ahead of Ottawa but I think they are poised to move up. Tampa? Florida? Toronto? Boston? How exactly do you see us close to the playoffs???

The presence of the wildcard would help us. Sure our old division is tough, too, but schedule wise, it's really the fact we haven't been able to play any of the bad teams outside our division, to rack up points, that has really hurt us. 

13 hours ago, JohnC said:

If you add Jack with the continued progression of our young players this is a mid-tier team. Or another way to look at it is that it has moved from the bottom tier to the the mid-level. That is not an insignificant move forward. Most of us agree that getting solid to good goaltending on a consistent basis is the key to being a solid team. Is Ullmark a #1 goalie (assuming he is re-signed)? I consider him capable of being a mid-level #1. Is he durable enough to count on for the long-haul? I'm not sure.  

Respectfully, I see things differently than you do. I understand why you have come to your position but my assessment is simply different. C'est la vie. 

 

And in a 31 team league, a mid tier team (16th?) is in the playoff mix. 

Goaltending is key to the next step, as you point out. 

[Thorner]

24 minutes ago, JohnC said:

My sense is that the direction has been established, and it revolves around developing one's own players instead of bringing in high cost players (As you noted.) Our blue line has a lot of young players who should grow and get better together. It's notable that the Mitts/Thompson/Asplund line played together in Rochester and now seem to play as a cohesive and productive line. Getting three recent AHL players to demonstrate that they can capably play in the NHL in one year is a success story. Then next test is how much better can they get?

I'm not going to make a declarative proclamation about how good this group will become because that would be foolish. If as a Sabre fan you are not cautious about over-evaluating the roster then this organization's inglorious recent history has taught you nothing. 

As @Thornyand many others have repeatedly stated getting a quality tandem at goal will more than anything accelerate the upswing of this low swinging franchise. And the return to form for Jack should be a positive factor.

Put me in the cautiously optimistic column. For those in the highly skeptical column my response is I understand where you are coming from.  

[Radar]

55 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Play him with Jack for 82 games next season, watch him score 30 goals, and if you still want to move him, shouldn't have much of a problem, especially if you retain.

I've been in this camp for a good long while. Mostly because we haven't/hadn't filled 2C. There's a big gap between us and other teams, but because 2C is SUCH an important spot on a hockey team, one well placed move, as you mentioned, could have made up a ton of that gap. Especially when that 2C would be afforded the luxury of playing behind JE. 

The GM's took their swings at at, Botterill barely, and their outside acquisitions couldn't get it done. Fingers crossed - but it looks like we may have it covered, now, internally. If Cozens/Casey lock down 2/3C, I think with the return of Jack (please don't deal him) we'll see centre depth that leads to the type of consistency we haven't seen in a while. When we had ROR at 2C, he was a better all-around hockey player than JE. Now Jack is a superstar - let's let the Cs below him benefit, and therefore, Buffalo. We're talking a solid shot at the best C depth here since the fateful summer of 07. 14 years, longer than a Sirius stint in Azkaban. 

From there, it's going to be things like properly addressing the goaltending situation that gets us into the playoffs. We have wingers. I'm one of the few that sees a return to form for Skinner if he's paired back with Jack, that configuration has only proven to work, it's never been proven that it doesn't work. Stick 14th overall in the NHL goal scorer Reinhart on the other wing and get the band back together, this time with depth behind them.

Now this is exactly how I feel. Your hope in Skinner is higher than mine probably but he's here and his contract requires us to make the best possible usage of him. Whoever our coach is I'll be watching how he utilizes Skinner.

[Radar]

10 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The team is going to have to prove this. I will believe it when I see it. 

You and Labatte Blue help keep our feet planted😀

[Archie Lee]

17 hours ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

What would it take to move Skinner other than his agreement? 50 percent retention is a given. Then what? There's a much bigger market for a 4.5 million dollar Jeff Skinner than a 9 million dollar one. Yeah that ongoing cap hit will suck but it's half of what it would have been.

I think Skinner is pretty much unmovable for 3 reasons:

1.) He needs to agree to it.  While I think it is possible that he would agree to be moved (regardless of how much money you make, there is no underestimating a person's desire to feel welcome and wanted in the place they call home)...

2.) The options would be quite limited.  At least one team that he would waive his NMC for would have to be willing to take him...and

3.) After he agrees to waive and you find a team that would take him, you then need to determine the cost.  It would be ridiculously high.

Perhaps #3 comes before #1 and #2, but either way it is hard to imagine this happening any time soon.

As for what it would cost to get another team to accept Skinner?  Note that his buyout is terrible.  If we did it this June we would get tremendous savings in year one, practically none in year two, good savings in year three and four and then 2 cap bombs in years five and six.  That in itself is basically poison.  THEN though, there is another 6 years where we would have a cap hit of just under $2.5 million.  

I think the most I would do is retain $2.5-$3.0 million for the rest of the deal.  That would effectively move the 7th to 12th years of the buyout to years 1-6.  The cost in assets would be far too steep though.  To get another team to take on $6 - $6.5 million for 6 years on a player whose attribute is offence and who has produced 23 goals and 39 points in his last 123 games played (and who in 11 NHL seasons will not have played a single playoff game), would cost a crazy amount.  I can't imagine what it would be, but if I were the GM in Seattle it would start with 3 good young prospects and/or picks.  Say Johnson, Peterka and a 1st. 

I think we can just forget about moving or buying out Skinner. The best we can hope is that he rebounds and produces for 2-3 seasons like the $5-$6 million dollar player he once was.  

    

 

 

 

r 

[JoeSchmoe]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

I'm one of the few that sees a return to form for Skinner if he's paired back with Jack, that configuration has only proven to work, it's never been proven that it doesn't work.

I feel like the big difference between Skinner now and when he was scoring is his shot. He's got a little pea shooter going right now. I find he still gets the puck to the dangerous areas, but can't finish because his shot sucks.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I feel like the big difference between Skinner now and when he was scoring is his shot. He's got a little pea shooter going right now. I find he still gets the puck to the dangerous areas, but can't finish because his shot sucks.

That's why he feasted so much playing with Jack - it's identifiable, not random - he gets to the right areas, and he doesn't need to "beat" goalies with his mediocre shot when the goalies are out of position from rebounds. 

Jack generates in close rebounds

Jack generates in close rebounds

Edited April 25, 2021 by Thorny
Jack generates in close rebounds

[jsb]

Well I'm still optimistic that we're really not that far off from being a playoff contender even with this disastrous season still staring us in the face. 

1. The team was 9-6-3 when Ullmark started. The magical Deluca line. It's imperative he stay healthy and they get a GOOD GK to start or back him up
2. The team this year never had a healthy Eichel even though he played 20 games and McCabe their best defensive D-man gave them 13. Including Okposo's recent injury, they lost all of their lettered leaders (C-A-A) for basically 2/3rds of this season. An under the radar loss is Girgensons who if nothing else would have been our most physical forward by far this year
3. They are 7-5-3 in their last 15 games playing all the young guys and supposed busts and they're all exceeding past performances
4. They fired RK
5. The young D averaging under 23 years of age actually look pretty dang competent and if they can move Risto for some forward addition, I don't think they'll miss him much on the back end and hopefully they will improve the top 9, I would have said 6 but unless they move on from someone there, I'm not sure there's an opening there besides Bjork and Olofsson may move into that spot if needed. 
6. If Mitts and Tage keep improving and I'm more and more optimistic on these guys heading in the right direction, that's a pretty good start of a line 3 because if needed Asplund becomes the line 4 Center.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Radar said:

You and Labatte Blue help keep our feet planted😀

I still have a limp from falling off the bandwagon after the 10 game win streak................ Never again 🙂

 

[JohnC]

58 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I still have a limp from falling off the bandwagon after the 10 game win streak................ Never again 🙂

 

Did one of the loyalists run you over and speed away when you fell off the wagon? Being targeted I'm sure you are well aware that hit and run drivers have no compassion. ☠️