Jack Eichel: Trade rumors and speculation

[Marvin]

10 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I don’t honestly see Krebs ever reaching Eichel’s level. 
 

 

In the end we are stuck in an endless logical loop.

1. Team says they’d let Eichel have ADR. Offer .50 on the dollar.

2. Sabres decline because if the team didn’t  believe the surgery would return him to 1C abilities then they wouldn’t of accepted the surgery to begin with. Counters at $1 on the dollar.

3. Team declines saying that they are taking the risk of the surgery so there should be a discount. Continues to offer .50 on the dollar.

4. Buffalo declines saying much like the first iteration, if they feel the risk is that great then why make the trade to begin with. However the Sabres do offer an olive branch at .85 on the dollar.

5. Team continues to harp on risk and contract but raises offer slightly to .60 on the dollar.

6. Sabres counter at .75 and state this is the lowest they’ll go. 
 

7. Team declines thus Buffalo stops general discussions.

8. Time passes and the other team sends another .50 offer and the cycle repeats.

For those who insist that GMKA should have won an Eichel trade in the summer, please put forth a scenario like this.

[Hoss]

53 minutes ago, inkman said:

I haven’t bothered reading the majority of this thread because why would anyone subject themselves to that, has there been any discussion about contingent trades. Like if Eichel plays in 2022, the Sabres get a 1st.  If he plays in the postseason, it’s another draft pick, and so on?

Yes. This has been discussed dozens of times in this thread.

[Weave]

36 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I don’t honestly see Krebs ever reaching Eichel’s level. 
 

And it is no sure thing that Eichel goes back to Eichel level.  I think you are heavily discounting that possibility.  Eichel may end up at Kreb's level.  Possibly worse.  Teams have to factor that in.  I'd be pissed if KA paid full value for Eichel when there is so much uncertainty.  Uncertainty is lost value.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thread.php?thread_id=175278&forum_id=1"

(E4) people E4!!!! 😆

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

For an injured Eichel with an uncertain surgery future?  Would you do it if Quinn was your only blue chip prospect?

No, in the hypothetical it would be under the premise Eichel was on the same page with the acquiring team, which he presumably will be in a trade. I think he'll recover from whichever surgery he gets, yes. He's a significantly, significantly better player than what Jack Quinn is likely to be. 

[thewookie1]

57 minutes ago, Weave said:

And it is no sure thing that Eichel goes back to Eichel level.  I think you are heavily discounting that possibility.  Eichel may end up at Kreb's level.  Possibly worse.  Teams have to factor that in.  I'd be pissed if KA paid full value for Eichel when there is so much uncertainty.  Uncertainty is lost value.

If they are willing to let Eichel have the ADR then I would imagine they would feel the likelihood of a full recovery.

Let's put numbers on it

I'd say Eichel has a 60% chance of coming back at 100%

About 15% chance he's a 2C, 5% of complete failure and 20% chance he comes back lesser than before but still a 1C.

Those odds are still better than Krebs has at reaching Eichel.

If Krebs has a 35 to 50% chance of being a lesser 1C and Eichel has a 60% chance to be a great 1C and a combined 80% of being the same if not better would that not be in your favor?

[Weave]

11 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

If they are willing to let Eichel have the ADR then I would imagine they would feel the likelihood of a full recovery.

Let's put numbers on it

I'd say Eichel has a 60% chance of coming back at 100%

About 15% chance he's a 2C, 5% of complete failure and 20% chance he comes back lesser than before but still a 1C.

Those odds are still better than Krebs has at reaching Eichel.

If Krebs has a 35 to 50% chance of being a lesser 1C and Eichel has a 60% chance to be a great 1C and a combined 80% of being the same if not better would that not be in your favor?

The logic makes sense, not sure if the numbers do.  Now look at it from the point of view of the people who have seen his medical report, and are refusing to offer Krebs level prospects......

These GM's are one of 32 in the world.  They aren't ditch diggers.

[Wyldnwoody44]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

The logic makes sense, not sure if the numbers do.  Now look at it from the point of view of the people who have seen his medical report, and are refusing to offer Krebs level prospects......

These GM's are one of 32 in the world.  They aren't ditch diggers.

Botteril and Murray were also GM's

Having one of those jobs doesn't automatically make you a smart person. 

Someone will crack when they feel the pressure. 

[Hoss]

22 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thread.php?thread_id=175278&forum_id=1"

(E4) people E4!!!! 😆

“Vegas needs help soon” … then reports they’re trading for a good who may not play this season.

[Digger]

I think the only thing that we can all agree on in this forum is that the Eichel name helps these insiders with generating hits on their stories and on their sites.  There's nothing really new (or very little anyway in my opinion) in terms of actual content.  It's fun to debate different scenarios but it's more fun to talk about actual hockey games.  Looking forward to the next Sabres game against Vancouver.

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Botteril and Murray were also GM's

Having one of those jobs doesn't automatically make you a smart person. 

Someone will crack when they feel the pressure. 

What pressure are you referring to? The nonexistent pressure that has so far resulted in no serious offers? 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thread.php?thread_id=175278&forum_id=1"

(E4) people E4!!!! 😆

So Eichel isn't going to the Knights.

[Wyldnwoody44]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

What pressure are you referring to? The nonexistent pressure that has so far resulted in no serious offers? 

The pressure that GM's inevitably feel to keep their jobs, getting Eichel while injured will allow a GM another season as Eichel heals to sell to the owner/fanbase. 

There is next to zero pressure on Adams right now when it comes to this situation, it may not feel like it but we have the upper hand. 

[K-9]

18 minutes ago, JohnC said:

What pressure are you referring to? The nonexistent pressure that has so far resulted in no serious offers? 

There is no pressure on anyone here, just impatience on the side of Eichel and his agent to get something done. But impatience shouldn’t be confused with pressure. We have a talented, injured player on IR. That’s it. Nobody can expect much given the circumstances. 

[kas23]

3 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

The pressure that GM's inevitably feel to keep their jobs, getting Eichel while injured will allow a GM another season as Eichel heals to sell to the owner/fanbase. 

There is next to zero pressure on Adams right now when it comes to this situation, it may not feel like it but we have the upper hand. 

Plus, the pressure to win starts mounting once the season starts, not during the summer. This pressure starts accumulating more once injuries start to mount and the season is now in doubt. Desperate times call for desperate measures. 

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

The pressure that GM's inevitably feel to keep their jobs, getting Eichel while injured will allow a GM another season as Eichel heals to sell to the owner/fanbase. 

There is next to zero pressure on Adams right now when it comes to this situation, it may not feel like it but we have the upper hand. 

The highlighted is exactly my point. If there is pressure it would be on a GM foolish enough to give up a lot of prime assets for a player who most likely won't play this year. 

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, K-9 said:

There is no pressure on anyone here, just impatience on the side of Eichel and his agent to get something done. But impatience shouldn’t be confused with pressure. We have a talented, injured player on IR. That’s it. Nobody can expect much given the circumstances. 

The Sabres should be impatient here, too. Right now, they’ve got nothing to show for Eichel or the suffering done to acquire him. They need this over sooner rather than later unless the hope is to kick the return as far down the road as possible which I can’t imagine is the case.

[Flashsabre]

Vegas makes the most sense to me because one they need a 1C to help put them over the top but their owner is not a patient man and he loved MAF and I can’t believe he was ok with letting MAF go and replace his cap space with Dadonov.

I think Foley turns the heat up on McCrimmon and he makes a deal including Krebs.

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

There is no pressure on anyone here, just impatience on the side of Eichel and his agent to get something done. But impatience shouldn’t be confused with pressure. We have a talented, injured player on IR. That’s it. Nobody can expect much given the circumstances. 

The shame of this situation for Jack is if he would have gotten the recommended surgery a couple of months ago there would have been some clarification (not fully) about what his prognosis would be. I'm not criticizing Jack for wanting a particularly surgery. That is his prerogative. But until whatever surgery happens the situation is most likely going to be stuck in the mud. 

[tom webster]

4 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The Sabres should be impatient here, too. Right now, they’ve got nothing to show for Eichel or the suffering done to acquire him. They need this over sooner rather than later unless the hope is to kick the return as far down the road as possible which I can’t imagine is the case.

Why? The return they receive for a Eichel will likely have minimal impact on this season. Why is there any pressure for them to do anything before they are ready?

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, Digger said:

To me any team has to decide if Eichel will return to full health first full stop.  If they agree that he can then you talk trade.  If you think no or that it's too risky you say that you're out and move on. 

 

 

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

The thing is they are trying for a Cup; this isn’t a case of how Anaheim or LAK may have their hang ups. Vegas has tried and failed to win the Cup for 4 years and are held back by their lack of a true 1C. (Karlsson was one for a year) Yes, would they be trading their last blue chipper; technically yes as Brisson is just shy of that. But Krebs isn’t going to be a 1C for at least a couple years if ever. Your odds of Eichel bouncing back are higher than Krebs making a significant impact before Vegas’ core is in their early to mid 30’s. 
 

If a team is confident in the surgery; it makes sense to try to lower the price but eventually you need to just pay the piper.

If Buffalo was in Vegas’s position exactly and we had 1 blue chip prospect left. I’d ask my doctors about the surgery; and if they said it was likely to work out then I’d take that dive. In the event Eichel fails to return to form, and you still fail; then you deal away the old core, recoup picks and prospects and try again. However if he does return to form he’ll make your team a juggernaut in the Pacific and you’ll be a Cup favorite for at least 4 years. Plus, there’s the opportunity to re-sign Eichel and use him as part of a vet oversight on a new younger core you draft in 23,24 and 25. 
 

 

So yes, I would trade my last blue chip prospect in their specific circumstances. 

As others have pointed out, it's not binary, and the GMs who are considering trading for Eichel aren't looking at it that way.  They are pricing in the risk, which is substantial, that the injury will be debilitating.  (For that matter, their doctors aren't giving them a binary risk assessment either.  They're saying he might come all the way back and he might not.)  That's why no one has ponied up their crown jewel prospects since Eichel demanded out 6 months ago, and why no one is going to do so unless their team gets off to a bad start and they feel pressure to make a move.

 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

No, in the hypothetical it would be under the premise Eichel was on the same page with the acquiring team, which he presumably will be in a trade. I think he'll recover from whichever surgery he gets, yes. He's a significantly, significantly better player than what Jack Quinn is likely to be. 

Similarly -- they will be on the same page in the sense that the acquiring team will be OK with the ADR surgery, but not in the sense that the acquiror will be as confident in a full recovery as Jack is.  It is simply not realistic to expect an acquiror to go all in and give up their crown jewels for him on top of the uninsurable $50MM commitment, unless there is a significant new development.  Otherwise it would've happened already.

[Doohicksie]

12 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The Sabres should be impatient here, too. Right now, they’ve got nothing to show for Eichel or the suffering done to acquire him. They need this over sooner rather than later unless the hope is to kick the return as far down the road as possible which I can’t imagine is the case.

They're building sans Eichel or return from an Eichel trade.  If it turns out the first couple games aren't a fluke and the Sabres are in fact competitive, there is zero pressure on KA to expedite a deal.  One scenario is wait until late in the season (Olympic break) to trade him and if the Sabres are a bubble team, use the return to fill in the holes (goalie depth?  center depth?  RHD?) based on where they need help.  If they're hanging around, within 5 points of a playoff spot, return from an Eichel trade could put them over the top and into the playoffs.

Oh, and "suffering done to acquire him" is sunk costs.  Water under the bridge.

Edited October 18, 2021 by Doohickie

[K-9]

24 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The Sabres should be impatient here, too. Right now, they’ve got nothing to show for Eichel or the suffering done to acquire him. They need this over sooner rather than later unless the hope is to kick the return as far down the road as possible which I can’t imagine is the case.

I think you’re projecting your own frustration and impatience on the situation. The Sabres and potential teams looking to acquire him are simply in a holding pattern and nobody is under pressure given that circumstance.

24 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The shame of this situation for Jack is if he would have gotten the recommended surgery a couple of months ago there would have been some clarification (not fully) about what his prognosis would be. I'm not criticizing Jack for wanting a particularly surgery. That is his prerogative. But until whatever surgery happens the situation is most likely going to be stuck in the mud. 

It doesn’t do anyone any good to lament the time lost. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

 

It doesn’t do anyone any good to lament the time lost. 

I'm not lamenting the time lost. I'm just pointing out that it is a major factor in getting a deal done that could help us this season. I'm not precluding the possibility that a deal can get done sooner than expected but I just don't see it happening. What it comes down to is the return. If it takes longer than expected I fine with that extended timetable. 

[K-9]

Just now, JohnC said:

I'm not lamenting the time lost. I'm just pointing out that it is a major factor in getting a deal done that could help us this season. I'm not precluding the possibility that a deal can get done sooner than expected but I just don't see it happening. What it comes down to is the return. If it takes longer than expected I fine with that extended timetable. 

My post wasn’t directed at you, I’m merely pointing out it’s water thru the dam. 

What is “longer than expected?” I’m sure we are way past that for Eichel’s side of the coin, but I’m not sure the Sabres and possible trade partners see it the same way. I thinks it’s a very matter of fact situation for them.