Seattle Expansion Protection List

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Another point to think about:

Given what people on other fanboards (e.g., hfboards) are posting the players whom their teams will protect, Seattle may put a premium on getting centres: there appear to be many good defencemen being expost and many of the 7th forwards being protected are the team's #3C.  Which of our forwards, who are likely to be exposed, qualify as NHL centres?  Is there a good reason to pick that centre over Miller?

Unless Skinner waives his NMC to be exposed, the F the Sabres can't protect that they'd want to is probably Bjork or less likely Asplund.  Asplund is a C by background.  Supposedly Bjork can play C.  Eakin fits the bill square on, but not sure just how much it would cost to get them to take him.  Girgensons is also historically a C, but hasn't played it in years.  At this point, he's a LW.

3 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Another point to think about:

Given what people on other fanboards (e.g., hfboards) are posting the players whom their teams will protect, Seattle may put a premium on getting centres: there appear to be many good defencemen being expost and many of the 7th forwards being protected are the team's #3C.  Which of our forwards, who are likely to be exposed, qualify as NHL centres?  Is there a good reason to pick that centre over Miller?

Unless Skinner waives his NMC to be exposed, the F the Sabres can't protect that they'd want to is probably Bjork or less likely Asplund.  Asplund is a C by background.  Supposedly Bjork can play C.  Eakin fits the bill square on, but not sure just how much it would cost to get them to take him.  Girgensons is also historically a C, but hasn't played it in years.  At this point, he's a LW.

[PerreaultForever]

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Not sure how trading one of our best forwards for assets we don’t have to protect and Will Borgen makes us better.

Especially when Seattle is still going to take a player possibly as good as Borgen (Thompson, Bjork, Asplund?)

Well this is a long discussion that will be batted around I imagine during the off season. There are numerous ways to look at it and arguments for all sides but if you want a big culture shift and you like the current developing chemistry, then this might be the moment to make a radical break with the past/status quo and move on.

My only point is, that if that is the plan, it would make sense to move some people out before the draft if you want to retain some others. 

Honestly though, I don't think Seattle is going to be overly concerned with who they are getting from us so if they want to sway it to any specific person I don't think it would take much that way either. I doubt Seattle is salivating over Borgen, Bjork or whoever. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

Honestly though, I don't think Seattle is going to be overly concerned with who they are getting from us so if they want to sway it to any specific person I don't think it would take much that way either. I doubt Seattle is salivating over Borgen, Bjork or whoever. 

This 100%

I offer them a 3rd to take Miller.

If they don’t, protect our 10 and let them take who they want.

We will survive.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

This 100%

I offer them a 3rd to take Miller.

If they don’t, protect our 10 and let them take who they want.

We will survive.

I think that's too much but not a big deal either way. 

[jsb]

I'm too lazy and it's too late for me to look up who could be available and who isn't. We have the worst record in the league, we can only lose one guy, besides Jack, Samson, Mitts and Dahlin plus maybe Risto, Tage and Olofsson, who cares who they take, they're all replaceable with someone else. It'll be interesting after the way Vegas swindled most of the league how the GMs learned what to do and what not to do. I think there will be a major strategy change with most teams.

I also think how the new management team wants to build the team will be the biggest factor on who they protect and who they don't. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by jsb

[dudacek]

Some fodder from the Athletic's Pierre Lebrun:

https://theathletic.com/2530945/2021/04/21/seattle-kraken-expansion-draft-6-teams-in-play-to-make-a-side-deal/

• Carolina has Pesce, Slavin, Bean, Skjei and Hamilton (UFA) to worry about on D.
• Colorado might have to leave at least one Johnson (NMC), Toews, or Graves, or up front Landeskog (UFA), Burakovsky, Nichushkin and Donskoi unprotected
• Oilers: Klefbom, Barrie (UFA), Larsson (UFA), Nurse and Bear
• Panthers: Yandle (NMC) Ekblad, Weegar, Nuttivaara
• Wild: Spurgeon, Brodin and SUter have NMCs. Dumba does not.

The feeling I'm getting is a lot of teams will have better unprotected D than the Sabres.

 

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Some fodder from the Athletic's Pierre Lebrun:

https://theathletic.com/2530945/2021/04/21/seattle-kraken-expansion-draft-6-teams-in-play-to-make-a-side-deal/

• Carolina has Pesce, Slavin, Bean, Skjei and Hamilton (UFA) to worry about on D.
• Colorado might have to leave at least one Johnson (NMC), Toews, or Graves, or up front Landeskog (UFA), Burakovsky, Nichushkin and Donskoi unprotected
• Oilers: Klefbom, Barrie (UFA), Larsson (UFA), Nurse and Bear
• Panthers: Yandle (NMC) Ekblad, Weegar, Nuttivaara
• Wild: Spurgeon, Brodin and SUter have NMCs. Dumba does not.

The feeling I'm getting is a lot of teams will have better unprotected D than the Sabres.

 

Hamilton and Landeskog probably wait until after the draft to sign their new deals with Carolina and Colorado. 
 

Barrie and Larsson might do the same.

Nuttivaara and Dumba are going to look good in Kraken Unis.

Or offer Boston’s 2nd to Minny for Dumba or a Third and a lower level prospect instead.  Have a Top Pairing of Dahlin-Dumba while the former is on His Bridge Deal 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Brawndo

[DarthEbriate]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The feeling I'm getting is a lot of teams will have better unprotected D than the Sabres.

If Seattle follows Vegas' lead they'll have no fear of overstocking on defensemen. Vegas drafted/acquired a whole boatload of them and while some guys must've been upset they started out in the AHL, Vegas was eventually able to move them (cough cough, Miller for a 2nd and 5th) while our JBott moved our glut of D for a 4th (Scandella), a nothing (Bogosian), and a disgruntlement (Pilut). Gotta have faith in your GM.

If I'm Seattle and my options or Bjork or Borgen, I'm taking Borgen.

However, this article does give fodder to the "expose Risto" and protect Borgen. You know Seattle has other, better $4M- and $5M-defenseman options to play in the top 4 than Ristolainen (all around) and that Seattle loves analytics.

You might have put the poison in your own glass counting on your great strength to save you. So Seattle can clearly not choose the D in front of you!

[Brawndo]

9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

If Seattle follows Vegas' lead they'll have no fear of overstocking on defensemen. Vegas drafted/acquired a whole boatload of them and while some guys must've been upset they started out in the AHL, Vegas was eventually able to move them (cough cough, Miller for a 2nd and 5th) while our JBott moved our glut of D for a 4th (Scandella), a nothing (Bogosian), and a disgruntlement (Pilut). Gotta have faith in your GM.

If I'm Seattle and my options or Bjork or Borgen, I'm taking Borgen.

However, this article does give fodder to the "expose Risto" and protect Borgen. You know Seattle has other, better $4M- and $5M-defenseman options to play in the top 4 than Ristolainen (all around) and that Seattle loves analytics.

You might have put the poison in your own glass counting on your great strength to save you. So Seattle can clearly not choose the D in front of you!

Miller and Risto would have value to them as they are both on expiring contracts and could be moved for assets at the TDL. 

[DarthEbriate]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Miller and Risto would have value to them as they are both on expiring contracts and could be moved for assets at the TDL. 

Definitely (as they will for us), if either team is selling at the TDL next season. But just as an example, if Carolina ends up exposing Skjei at 5.2 and we expose Risto at 5.4, and Seattle's analytics department likes Skjei plus the extra couple years ...  then they pick Skjei and from us they the much cheaper Miller as a 6/7. We get to keep our muscle and all 3 of the kids.

This is where the fun begins.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

Or offer Boston’s 2nd to Minny for Dumba or a Third and a lower level prospect instead.  Have a Top Pairing of Dahlin-Dumba while the former is on His Bridge Deal 

This is sorta where my mind went.

Trade for Dumba or some other good D to protect along with Dahlin and Joki.

Leave Risto and Borgen unprotected. Lose one, keep the other, and improve your D.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Hamilton and Landeskog probably wait until after the draft to sign their new deals with Carolina and Colorado. 
 

Barrie and Larsson might do the same.

Nuttivaara and Dumba are going to look good in Kraken Unis.

Or offer Boston’s 2nd to Minny for Dumba or a Third and a lower level prospect instead.  Have a Top Pairing of Dahlin-Dumba while the former is on His Bridge Deal 

Why would Minnesota take a mid-round 2nd to end up losing both Dumba and another hockey player?  Is their next most valuable expansion draft target really worth less than a 2nd to them?  Because at the end of the day, that is what expansion draft day would end up netting out for them.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Taro T

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Why would Minnesota take a mid-round 2nd to end up losing both Dumba and another hockey player?  Is their next most valuable expansion draft target really worth less than a 2nd to them?  Because at the end of the day, that is what expansion draft day would end up netting out for them.

I don't know if everyone factors in the fact that you still are losing somebody.

If we trade Risto and protect Borgen, we are still losing Girgensons or Bjork or Miller as well as Risto.

If we get a ton for Risto it might make sense, but the team trading for Risto is also giving up a protection slot for him, which has to devalue the return.

Are we going to get a return for Risto that is more valuable than Bjork or Girgensons? We have to, or trading Risto doesn't make sense.

Edited April 21, 2021 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Why would Minnesota take a mid-round 2nd to end up losing both Dumba and another hockey player?  Is their next most valuable expansion draft target really worth less than a 2nd to them?  Because at the end of the day, that is what expansion draft day would end up netting out for them.

The quality of the other player they will lose has the potential to be a lot less than Dumba. With three defenseman and two forwards have NMCs, they only have five forward spots left. I imagine Fiala, Foligno, Greenway and Eriksson will be four of those. 
 

Rather than losing Dumba who based their expansion list would probably be Seattle’s Pick for nothing, is a 2nd Round Pick and losing whoever is not protected amongst forwards Rask or Sturm, Soucy and Kahkonen a better option? 
 

They would need two other bodies for expansion exposure though

[Scottysabres]

I concur, you expose Olofsson.

[Taro T]

20 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The quality of the other player they will lose has the potential to be a lot less than Dumba. With three defenseman and two forwards have NMCs, they only have five forward spots left. I imagine Fiala, Foligno, Greenway and Eriksson will be four of those. 
 

Rather than losing Dumba who based their expansion list would probably be Seattle’s Pick for nothing, is a 2nd Round Pick and losing whoever is not protected amongst forwards Rask or Sturm, Soucy and Kahkonen a better option? 
 

They would need two other bodies for expansion exposure though

OK.  They don't lose Dumba for "nothing."  But at the end of the day, under your scenario they are out Dumba & another skater and get a mid-2nd round pick back.  Realizing you do "get" this, but doubt the Wild would prefer the 2nd rounder over that player that helps them today.

And if they don't consider that a better deal, there's no point for them to make that trade.  But even if they do like that 2nd rounder, their team next season is out 2 useful players when they only needed to be out 1.

Those are similar machinations that caused Marcheseault & Karlsson to not only end up in Vegas but ending up there with additional assets going out to Vegas.

Not saying they shouldn't trade Dumba, but if he goes Minny should be trying to get a guy that is good & doesn't have to be exposed.  That way they're only out 1 player.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I don't know if everyone factors in the fact that you still are losing somebody.

If we trade Risto and protect Borgen, we are still losing Girgensons or Bjork or Miller as well as Risto.

If we get a ton for Risto it might make sense, but the team trading for Risto is also giving up a protection slot for him, which has to devalue the return.

Are we going to get a return for Risto that is more valuable than Bjork or Girgensons? We have to, or trading Risto doesn't make sense.

Not only that.  But unless they trade him out exclusively for futures/ guys that will still be on ELCs next season, they'll have to protect that guy leaving somebody else exposed and they'll just essentially spin their wheels.

[Hoss]

Assuming Skinner is willing to waive his NMC. If he doesn't you drop an anvil on him ... I mean you protect him and drop Bjork from the list but that puts more pressure to send an asset to Seattle to make sure they don't take Bjork.

Eichel, Reinhart, Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Tage Thompson, Anders Bjork

Dahlin, Jokiharju, Risto (ideally you trade him ahead of the draft and protect Borgen or give Vegas a 3/4 to take Miller instead)

Ullmark (technically not currently eligible so you'd have to sign him)

 

It feels pretty straightforward to me.

[Norcal]

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2940034-updated-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-predictions-for-the-seattle-kraken.amp.html

Some predictions from Bleacher Report. Good read. 

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, Norcal said:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2940034-updated-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-predictions-for-the-seattle-kraken.amp.html

Some predictions from Bleacher Report. Good read. 

I would love it if Seattle took Miller.

[Norcal]

18 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I would love it if Seattle took Miller.

Me too.

I was looking for a list of possible expansion related trade information.

Who's possibly shaking loose because of cap/expansion? 

[DarthEbriate]

27 minutes ago, Norcal said:

https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2940034-updated-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-predictions-for-the-seattle-kraken.amp.html

Some predictions from Bleacher Report. Good read. 

Fun list of names, and while I agree Seattle should overdraft on defense and then trade them off like Vegas did --- they won't go this far in the D direction. Bleacher's list as compiled is 5 million over the cap and has 13 D and only the minimum 14 F. I agree some of those are the best players available to take from the team, but they've also got to be traded and quickly. And that's where we lose Borgen v. Miller. Or Bjork/Asplund/Thompson whichever is exposed.

And if I'm a GM and want a Devon Toews for example... I'm also patient until Seattle comes down on their trade demands for the D. They can't leave themselves over the cap. And they definitely won't be able pass good folks through waivers if other teams are able to manage their caps this summer.

[Norcal]

2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Fun list of names, and while I agree Seattle should overdraft on defense and then trade them off like Vegas did --- they won't go this far in the D direction. Bleacher's list as compiled is 5 million over the cap and has 13 D and only the minimum 14 F. I agree some of those are the best players available to take from the team, but they've also got to be traded and quickly. And that's where we lose Borgen v. Miller. Or Bjork/Asplund/Thompson whichever is exposed.

And if I'm a GM and want a Devon Toews for example... I'm also patient until Seattle comes down on their trade demands for the D. They can't leave themselves over the cap. And they definitely won't be able pass good folks through waivers if other teams are able to manage their caps this summer.

I wondered what the cap number looked like. I'm gonna stay positive and believe they want Miller. I'd really hate to lose one of the young guys now. 

[Taro T]

On 4/24/2021 at 10:57 AM, Eleven said:

I would love it if Seattle took Miller.

Pretty sure everybody here would as well.

[LGR4GM]