Seattle Expansion Protection List

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Depends what other defensemen are available in the expansion draft.  

And their contracts. Seattle can't just load up on prospects, they have to select ~ $60 million in contracts, so certain veterans on expiring contracts they can flip will have value to them, even if they aren't part of any long-term plans. The expansion draft is as much (probably more) about accumulating assets as it is building a team.

As far as the pricing goes, Botterill give up a 6th so Vegas would pick Carrier instead of Ullmark.

Edited April 15, 2021 by dudacek

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

My point is I don't care who they pick. I am not paying them a premium to take player X unless that player is Skinner who has a monster contract. 

Exactly. Theoretically, every team is exposing their 12th-best player. Most of those players are going to be better than Borgen, or Miller, or Girgensons.

The expansion draft should bring the Sabres closer to the top teams, regardless of who they lose. Really, their only tough decision should figuring out how much they buy into the concept of Borgen.

[Broken Ankles]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I have no idea what Seattle thinks of Borgen or Miller, but I would be surprised if it took that much. It wasn't even two years ago Miller was traded for a 2nd and a 5th.

Colin Miller is a NHL hockey defenceman in his prime on an expiring middling contract. Guys like that are worth 3rd-round picks.

He's not good, but he's hardly a negative value. On an expansion team he probably gets those PP minutes he never got here and pads his stats again, then gets flipped at the trade deadline for a pick as a rental.

Do you honestly think you'd get a single team in the league to give up a 2nd round pick for Will Borgen. Maybe a 3rd?

Seattle's position is complicated given the expansion rules. But in a vacuum, I'd say there is even a chance they'd prefer Miller to Borgen flat out.

In bold -  unlike Vegas, Seattle will probably take an approach of slower development/not winning immediately, as GM's will act differently learning the lessons of the Vegas mistakes.   Speaking of which, was Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith net negative values?  Of course not.  How about Eric Haula?  But sacrificed to protect another player(s).  If I have a chance to start from scratch do I want a younger player still developing, cost controlled and guaranteed on my roster for at least 3-5 years or an over-priced player in his prime (with less skill - my opinion) who has an option to leave in UFA next season?   The decision isn't even close. 

Edited April 15, 2021 by Broken Ankles

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

In bold -  unlike Vegas, Seattle will probably take an approach of slower development/not winning immediately, as GM's will act differently learning the lessons of the Vegas mistakes.   Speaking of which, was Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith net negative values?  Of course not.  How about Eric Haula?  But sacrificed to protect another player(s).  If I have a chance to start from scratch do I want a younger player still developing, cost controlled and guaranteed on my roster for at least 3-5 years or an over-priced player in his prime (with less skill - my opinion) who has an option to leave in UFA next season?   The decision isn't even close. 

Agreed.

But we don't know if Seattle (or Buffalo) agrees with you that Will Borgen is a late-blooming NHL player, or just an AHL tweener.

And, like I said above, Seattle can't just load up on cheap young players, they have to take on a significant number of actual NHL contracts.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

In bold -  unlike Vegas, Seattle will probably take an approach of slower development/not winning immediately, as GM's will act differently learning the lessons of the Vegas mistakes.   Speaking of which, was Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith net negative values?  Of course not.  How about Eric Haula?  But sacrificed to protect another player(s).  If I have a chance to start from scratch do I want a younger player still developing, cost controlled and guaranteed on my roster for at least 3-5 years or an over-priced player in his prime (with less skill - my opinion) who has an option to leave in UFA next season.   The decision isn't even close. 

But, as Dudacek said, there is a minimum cap hit the Seattle team needs to reach, so while in a vacuum taking Borgen over Miller seems obvious, depending on what else is taken from other teams adding a 3rd or 4th to Miller might put him over the top from their perspective.

Also, depending on whether McCabe will come back or not, could see scenarios where Jokiharju is exposed instead of Borgen.  The team still holds the rights to Pilut and Johnson & Laaksonnen are in the pipeline.  The Sabres historically seem to have more difficulty identifying McCabe & Borgens (and yes Samuelsson seems close but they should want at least 2 of those stay at home guys, not just 1) than Jokiharjus.  (Will that still be the case post FO restructuring?  Don't know.  But until we see otherwise, will assume that's still the case.)

Much to many here's chagrin, my expectation is that Ristolainen is the 2nd lock to be protected on D.  That 3rd choice is interesting though.

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

In bold -  unlike Vegas, Seattle will probably take an approach of slower development/not winning immediately, as GM's will act differently learning the lessons of the Vegas mistakes.   Speaking of which, was Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith net negative values?  Of course not.  How about Eric Haula?  But sacrificed to protect another player(s).  If I have a chance to start from scratch do I want a younger player still developing, cost controlled and guaranteed on my roster for at least 3-5 years or an over-priced player in his prime (with less skill - my opinion) who has an option to leave in UFA next season?   The decision isn't even close. 

The decisions is close because you have to hit the cap floor. 

[Taro T]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned about the Karmanos deal is now Adams has another person, besides himself, that SHOULD have a good relationship w/ Ron Francis and while that won't get him to take Okposo off their hands (regardless of how rejuvenated his play has been post losingbstreak) it could help nudge him to taking Miller (or even the rights to Pilut?) w/ a sweetener rather than a young D-man we'd like to continue to see in B&G going forward.

[Thwomp!]

I leave Risto exposed.  If Seattle values analytics at all, they won't select him.

I also think that if Karmanos is any good at analytics, and that's what he's been hired for, Risto's star is about to dim considerably in the eyes of the organization.  

I'd also rather protect a tough, promising Borgen if it's a choice between the two.  We've seen what Risto has to offer and I wouldn't be upset if the Sabres get rid of him.  A big part of the Sabres' problem over the last several years is deploying Risto as a top pair defenseman, when he is clearly not one.

 

[inkman]

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agreed.

But we don't know if Seattle (or Buffalo) agrees with you that Will Borgen is a late-blooming NHL player, or just an AHL tweener.

And, like I said above, Seattle can't just load up on cheap young players, they have to take on a significant number of actual NHL contracts.

I think late blooming isn’t fair to Will.  He was buried behind 9 dmen last season and wasn’t considered this season due to RK’s idiocy. 

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, inkman said:

I think late blooming isn’t fair to Will.  He was buried behind 9 dmen last season and wasn’t considered this season due to RK’s idiocy. 

His upside is like pysyk though.  Is that enough for a team to want him? 

[inkman]

Just now, Drag0nDan said:

His upside is like pysyk though.  Is that enough for a team to want him? 

He hits.  He fights.  Some teams place a premium on that. 

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, inkman said:

He hits.  He fights.  Some teams place a premium on that. 

Risto hits, has some offensive upside and arguments can be made that he may be better should he be away from this organization.  

[dudacek]

I really hope that Borgen is as good as people think he is, and I hope he shows it in Buffalo. I've only seen him play a dozen or so games, but I love his style.

The concept of a mature defence comprised of Joki/Dahlin/Johnson/Samuelsson/Borgen is so appealing.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Thwomp! said:

I leave Risto exposed.  If Seattle values analytics at all, they won't select him.

I also think that if Karmanos is any good at analytics, and that's what he's been hired for, Risto's star is about to dim considerably in the eyes of the organization.  

I'd also rather protect a tough, promising Borgen if it's a choice between the two.  We've seen what Risto has to offer and I wouldn't be upset if the Sabres get rid of him.  A big part of the Sabres' problem over the last several years is deploying Risto as a top pair defenseman, when he is clearly not one.

 

Seattle has a very good analytics department. They won't take him. 

[Lanny]

Risto is only signed for one more year. Would Seattle use their pick for one year of Risto? Maybe if they think they can flip him at the deadline?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Y'all are nuts.  Leave VO exposed.  Leave Risto exposed.  All to save a 24 year D with 8 games of NHL experience.  I like Borgen also, but if management really really wants to keep him, either work a deal for them to take Miller or someone else.  Do what Jbot did with Carrier and Ullmark.  There is some way over thinking going on.  Honestly Samuelsson is a better version of Borgen, but from the other side.

My guess is Seattle will want some vets and someone to run their PP.  Miller is a perfect candidate.  A PP asset and on a not unreasonable 1 year contract.  They may take Miller anyway without incentive (although I'd squeeze us for something if I were Seattle's GM).  Remember that have to take some veteran contracts.

You protect Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Asplund, VO, Mitts and Thompson up front.  Risto, Dahlin and Jokiharju on defense.  You expose KO, Bjork, Torgarski, Borgen, Girgensons, Eakin, and Miller.  KA should then work a deal with Sea to take Miller and give them a 5th to do it.

If Seattle goes a different direction and takes Girgensons.  Borgen is going to have to work hard to beating out Miller for the 3rd RD spot.  

Edited April 15, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[rakish]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

In bold -  unlike Vegas, Seattle will probably take an approach of slower development/not winning immediately, as GM's will act differently learning the lessons of the Vegas mistakes.   Speaking of which, was Jonathan Marchessault or Reilly Smith net negative values?  Of course not.  How about Eric Haula?  But sacrificed to protect another player(s).  If I have a chance to start from scratch do I want a younger player still developing, cost controlled and guaranteed on my roster for at least 3-5 years or an over-priced player in his prime (with less skill - my opinion) who has an option to leave in UFA next season?   The decision isn't even close. 

I think this is good analysis, but I think the opposite is true. I think the salary cap crunch is stronger than ever, and as such, Seattle will be able to extort more value from each team than Vegas did. I don't think Buffalo will be affected by the increased cap crunch, as they have some cap space, so Seattle will extort other teams.  Seattle and Buffalo aren't negotiating on the value of Miller, Seattle is negotiating with the 30 other teams as to what the price is to take an unwelcomed contract off their hands. Buffalo will hear the price of Miller, and correctly, not make a deal.

My prediction is the Sabres lose Asplund or Borgan.

[Carmel Corn]

After the trade deadline, I am glad we have extra picks now to deal with Seattle in case we want to protect whoever.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Thwomp! said:

I leave Risto exposed.  If Seattle values analytics at all, they won't select him.

I also think that if Karmanos is any good at analytics, and that's what he's been hired for, Risto's star is about to dim considerably in the eyes of the organization.  

I'd also rather protect a tough, promising Borgen if it's a choice between the two.  We've seen what Risto has to offer and I wouldn't be upset if the Sabres get rid of him.  A big part of the Sabres' problem over the last several years is deploying Risto as a top pair defenseman, when he is clearly not one.

 

^ This is the counterargument for protecting Borgen. If the plan is to move Ristolainen at the 2022 trade deadline (if selling) or just let him walk after the 2022 season, then you can leave him and his $5M+ salary unprotected, betting on Seattle's analytics folks to steer clear. If they do take him though, you're left looking for a top 4 defenseman on the UFA market this July. (Because Jokiharju, Borgen, and Miller lack experience with taking all the high-pressure D zone, end-of-game situations that Risto's been doing for the last 5 years.)

[Thwomp!]

16 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

^ This is the counterargument for protecting Borgen. If the plan is to move Ristolainen at the 2022 trade deadline (if selling) or just let him walk after the 2022 season, then you can leave him and his $5M+ salary unprotected, betting on Seattle's analytics folks to steer clear. If they do take him though, you're left looking for a top 4 defenseman on the UFA market this July. (Because Jokiharju, Borgen, and Miller lack experience with taking all the high-pressure D zone, end-of-game situations that Risto's been doing for the last 5 years.)

Yeah I'm ok losing Risto.  And yes, he's been taking all these high pressure situations, but he's not very good at it.  He's really a 2nd pair player in my opinion.  With our D options, I'm protecting Dahlin, Joki, and Borgen and am perfectly fine with Seattle taking Risto or Miller.

[dudacek]

I think when it comes right down to it, this conversation comes down to whether you think Borgen is better the Ristolainen.

A few will talk contracts and analytics etc. but overall it's because they believe the drop-off from Risto to Borgen next year will be negligible, if there is any at all.

Edited April 15, 2021 by dudacek

[Thwomp!]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Y'all are nuts.  Leave VO exposed.  Leave Risto exposed.  All to save a 24 year D with 8 games of NHL experience.  I like Borgen also, but if management really really wants to keep him, either work a deal for them to take Miller or someone else.  Do what Jbot did with Carrier and Ullmark.  There is some why over thinking going on.  Honestly Samuelsson 

My guess is Seattle will want some vets and someone to run their PP.  Miller is a perfect candidate.  A PP asset and on a not unreasonable 1 year contract.  They may take Miller anyway without incentive (although I'd squeeze us for something if I were Seattle's GM).  Remember that have to take some veteran contracts.

You protect Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Asplund, VO, Mitts and Thompson up front.  Risto, Dahlin and Jokiharju on defense.  You expose KO, Bjork, Torgarski, Borgen, Girgensons, Eakin, and Miller.  KA should then work a deal with Sea to take Miller and give them a 5th to do it.

If Seattle goes a different direction and takes Girgensons.  Borgen is going to have to work hard to beating out Miller for the 3rd RD spot.  

I like your forwards protection list. Girgensons and Eakin are replaceable and overpaid for what they bring.  Bjork is really the only question mark.  How does he look with the Sabres?  And will they want to protect him because they seem to have had their eye on him? 

I wonder if Skinner would waive his no trade to be exposed to the draft, knowing that Seattle won't take him?  That would allow us to protect Bjork as well.  In that scenario, I just let Seattle choose who they want and don't care who they take.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, rakish said:

I think this is good analysis, but I think the opposite is true. I think the salary cap crunch is stronger than ever, and as such, Seattle will be able to extort more value from each team than Vegas did. I don't think Buffalo will be affected by the increased cap crunch, as they have some cap space, so Seattle will extort other teams.  Seattle and Buffalo aren't negotiating on the value of Miller, Seattle is negotiating with the 30 other teams as to what the price is to take an unwelcomed contract off their hands. Buffalo will hear the price of Miller, and correctly, not make a deal.

My prediction is the Sabres lose Asplund or Borgan.

Who do you have them protecting over Asplund?  Girgensons or Bjork?  As stated yesterday, my list would be Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Asplund, & Thompson.  And, honestly, at his contract, would expect they could slide Tage through easier than Rasmus the 3rd if they did want to protect somebody else.

[rakish]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Who do you have them protecting over Asplund?  Girgensons or Bjork?  As stated yesterday, my list would be Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Olofsson, Asplund, & Thompson.  And, honestly, at his contract, would expect they could slide Tage through easier than Rasmus the 3rd if they did want to protect somebody else.

Oh, you're probably right. I'm not trying to predict what the Buffalo Sabres are going to do, I merely meant Asplund as a placeholder for a (about a) one million contract. I wonder what Pilut's status is.

[Thwomp!]

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think when it comes right down to it, this conversation comes down to whether you think Borgen is better the Ristolainen.

A few will talk contracts and analytics etc. but overall it's because they believe the drop-off from Risto to Borgen next year will be negligible, if there is any at all.

Contract plays a big part.  Borgen makes less than a million and is a RFA after this year.  You're probably saving ~$4 million in cap by trading Risto for Borgen.

Without sweeteners, I think Seattle takes Borgen or Bjork if they can.  My goal would be to set it up so they'd have to take Miller, Risto, Girgensons, or Eakin.  Okposo would be great too, but not very likely.