Fancy stats since RK was fired...

[LabattBlue]

To all you fancy stats people...how do the team numbers look since RK was fired, and also how do the numbers look for the young guys such as Mitts, Asplund, Thompson, Joker, Dahlin and Bryson?

 

[IKnowPhysics]

Non-fancy stats, as of 4/14:

Team Records:

Ralph:

6-18-4, 0.286 P%

2.07 GF/GP (31st), 3.39 GA/GP (28th)

28.1 SF/GP (27th), 30.8 SA/GP (19th)

Not Ralph:

4-7-3, 0.393 P%

2.79 GF/GP (16th), 3.50 GA/GP (30th)

26.9 SF/GP (27th), 36.4 SA/GP (31st)

 

Goalie Records:

Ullmark, regardless of Ralph: 9-6-3, 0.583 P%, 0.917 SV%, 2.63 GAA

Not Ullmark, regardless of Ralph: 1-19-4, 0.125 P%, 0.890 SV%, 3.57 GAA

 

Goalie Stats:

Under Ralph:

Linus 5-4-2, 0.919 SV%, 2.44 GAA

Hutton 1-9-1, 0.884 SV%, 3.43 GAA

Johansson 0-5-1, 0.884 SV%, 3.79 GAA

Under Not Ralph:

Linus 4-2-1, 0.915 SV%, 2.95 GAA

Tokarski 0-4-2, 0.905 SV% 3.54 GAA

Hutton 0-1-0, 0.897 SV%, 3.82 GAA

 

Player Stats:

Under Ralph:

Under Not Ralph:

 

 

"Core" Players P/GP (Under Ralph / Under Not Ralph):

Eichel 0.86 / INJ

Reinhart 0.73 / 0.50

Cozens 0.25 / 0.43

Dahlin 0.39 / 0.50

Ristolainen 0.38 / 0.36

Movers:

++ Okposo 0.17 / 0.82

++ Asplund 0.20 / 0.56

++ Skinner 0.12 / 0.43

++ Thompson 0.15 / 0.45

++ Montour 0.28 / 0.57

++ Bryson 0.09 / 0.38

-- Olofsson 0.68 / 0.36

-- Hall 0.57 / 0.33

-- Staal 0.36 / 0.00 (4GP)

-- Rieder 0.20 / 0.11

 

 

The skinny, examining only the numbers:  This team simply will not win with any goalie we have not named Ullmark.  The disparity between Ullmark and others trumps the differences from the coaching change.  The coaching changes moved us toward scoring more goals (+0.72 GF/GP!), yes, but we also allow more shots (+5.8 SA/GP) and goals (+0.11 GA/GP)- if we're not backstopped by Ullmark, this will kill us on average almost no matter how many more goals are scored on average.  Not-Ullmark has a season 3.57 GAA and only three teams in the NHL score more GF/GP than that GAA (COL, NYR, PIT).  Our 2.79GF/GP under Not Ralph is tenable with Ulmmark's 2.95 GAA under Not Ralph- we might end up winning a couple games, but it's still not looking great.  With Tokarski's 3.54 GAA under Not Ralph, this is much worse.

By the improved GF/GP-to-GA/GP ratio, the Sabres are clearly a better team under Granato than Ralph.  But we still don't stand much of a chance if we don't play Ullmark 100% of the time.

Which is bad, because, as of tonight, he has a LBI.  If Ullmark's out, and we keep our scoring pace but can't win a game, you'll already know why.

 

Wins aside (typical groan) : Several players are producing more, likely due to changes in systems brought by the coaching change.  For instance, Okposo might be the most-improved player in the NHL in the past 15 games.  Skinner is predictably up.  Cozens is relishing a bigger role.  Thompson is productive 5-on-5.  Dahlin's now allowed to razzle your dazzle, so he's up a bit.

A couple players are producing less, perhaps in changed usage or in Eichel's absence.  For instance, Sam's point production is a little down as he's not on Jack's hip.  Olofsson's powerplay production was steady at 4.05 PPG/60 under Ralph but he hasn't scored a PPG under Not Ralph.  FWIW, Hall and Staal fell off cliffs before their departure.

It's good to see the future improving with Cozens, Dahlin, Thompson, Asplund, Bryson, Jokiharju, and Skinner improving, but with the defense so, so porous and non-Ulmmark goalie straight stinking, it's hard to be encouraged.

[PerreaultForever]

This pretty much matches the eye test.  It's a faster, more offensive, more fun to watch version but it's not really long term winning hockey without well above average goaltending. 

As much as we can all hate on Hall, him and Eichel on the same PP was what made it great. Olofsson was left unchecked many times with those guys out there. Now we're being pushed out to the perimeter as usual. 

[triumph_communes]

Eichel McCabe Borgen Girgensons (Montour with me coach) helps many of those numbers defensively

 

Our PP was Eichel and that changes with his return

 

Goalie problems can’t be understated

 

This team isn’t that far off. Injury return, a goalie not injured, and a new coach and we’re easily playoffs

Edited April 14, 2021 by triumph_communes

[Sabre fan]

19 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Eichel McCabe Borgen Girgensons (Montour with me coach) helps many of those numbers defensively

 

Our PP was Eichel and that changes with his return

 

Goalie problems can’t be understated

 

This team isn’t that far off. Injury return, a goalie not injured, and a new coach and we’re easily playoffs

agreed agreed agreed and then kinda agreed...not sure we are "easily" in playoffs but for sure there is all kinds of cause for hope now. The team is day and night from how it was under Ralphie and one cannot help but think Granato deserves a full year with a full team to see how they fair. If they continue to improve as they have thus far there is without doubt cause for optimism which was not there scant weeks ago... 

[inkman]

I think the first half dozen games post Ralph can’t really be segregated as the team hardly had any practices until 2 weeks after Ralph was fired.  Hard to implement a new system without practices to do so. 

[dudacek]

The thing that can't be forgotten about is the death of the PP and how it factors into those numbers.

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[inkman]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Me looking at those numbers 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, inkman said:

Me looking at those numbers 

his expected goals for percentage so xgf/xga

[pi2000]

posted the numbers in another thread...

Even strength possession numbers (corsi), and high danger chances for/against are a bit worse under Granato. Near the bottom of the league in HDCA.

Even strength shooting percentage has doubled from 6% to 12% (2nd in the league during that stretch).  HDSH% is up from 12% to 19%.

ES save percentage is up a few percent thanks to Ullmark. 

So the only way they keep staying un games is if they continue their high shooting % and get above average goaltending.

Is that sustainable? In the short term yes, maybe even to the end of the season.  Over an entire 82 game season? Not likely, which is why the should pump the brakes on hiring Granato as full-time HC.

 

Edited April 14, 2021 by pi2000

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

posted the numbers in another thread...

Even strength possession numbers (corsi), and high danger chances for/against are a bit worse under Granato. Near the bottom of the league in HDCA.

Even strength shooting percentage has doubled from 6% to 12% (2nd in the league during that stretch).  HDSH% is up from 12% to 19%.

ES save percentage is up a few percent thanks to Ullmark. 

So the only way they keep staying un games is if they continue their high shooting % and get above average goaltending.

Is that sustainable? In the short term yes, maybe even to the end of the season.  Over an entire 82 game season? Not likely, which is why the should pump the brakes on hiring Granato as full-time HC.

 

[#freejame]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What kind of topsy-turvy world are we living in where the two of you are agreeing with each other?

[jsb]

I'm going to jump on the @Doohickie bandwagon, these fancy stats make no sense without adding in the style of play. Being an old guy maybe my eye test isn't as good as it used to be but no-one is going to convince me that the team isn't faster, more cohesive and the players aren't playing for each other much much better that they did under Ralph. We've gone from an older, slower and plodding team to an aggressive and fast paced style. We seemed to only score on the PP and almost never 5v5 to now our PP sucks (albeit with out Jack who only played for RK) and we only score on 5v5. Someone with a brain please explain to me that Dahlin, Joker, Mitts, Asplund aren't playing vastly better now than under Ralph. Fancy stats BS stats.

[jsb]

8 minutes ago, #freejame said:

What kind of topsy-turvy world are we living in where the two of you are agreeing with each other?

Plus @Thorny & @dudacek were agreeing in another thread, is this a fake Sabrespace site or are dogs and cats getting along now too.

[Doohicksie]

3 minutes ago, jsb said:

I'm going to jump on the @Doohickie bandwagon

This is a decision you will surely regret.  But I appreciate the company.

1 minute ago, jsb said:

Plus @Thorny & @dudacek were agreeing in another thread, is this a fake Sabrespace site or are dogs and cats getting along now too.

Edited April 14, 2021 by Doohickie

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, jsb said:

Plus @Thorny & @dudacek were agreeing in another thread, is this a fake Sabrespace site or are dogs and cats getting along now too.

@dudacekmay correct me if I am wrong but as far as I perceive we agree on the macro as much as any two posters on anything, we quibble over the micro quite often - for my part it's often more so as a means to discussion and even sometimes semantics 

[jsb]

I'm sure he will but this is my bad, as I told @SDS I should have added one of these for you... 😀😁🤣😂😆 

👍👊👍

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

@dudacekmay correct me if I am wrong but as far as I perceive we agree on the macro as much as any two posters on anything, we quibble over the micro quite often - for my part it's often more so as a means to discussion and even sometimes semantics 

Let's face it, you just like to argue, and I just like the monthly cheque your wife sends so you're not arguing with her.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜 (Just in case @jsb hasn't put us back on ignore)

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Let's face it, you just like to argue, and I just like the monthly cheque your wife sends so you're not arguing with her.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

😜 (Just in case @jsb hasn't put us back on ignore)

What can I say, I like having my mind changed. 

There's a lot of truth to your point, anyways 🤣

[gilbert11]

How about this stat:  Sabres have 21 goals scored by defensemen this season in 42 games.  
 

In the 14 games with Granato in charge (and Girardi added) they have 10 goals scored by defensemen. Talk about a change in philosophy.  I like it.