Don Granato as a HC

[JohnC]

21 hours ago, dudacek said:

The proper conclusion to take from the Granato run is that particular group of kids has promise and many are ready for regular roles.

The reaction should be to bring the proper pieces in to augment and improve that. Counting on the group we saw to be a playoff contender simply by adding a goalie is utter folly.

It needed two top six forwards, two goalies, and a shutdown D at minimum.

Do you believe that if Risto is traded that the return can be a top six forward, most likely a second-line forward?

With respect to a shutdown defenseman I don't see that type of acquisition being made unless it is a return for a Jack trade. There is a limited number of that type of elite defensemen that teams are very reluctant to shed such a valuable commodity. Having a well-rounded blue line unit and responsible forward play can help to compensate for the lack of a blue line ace. 

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Do you believe that if Risto is traded that the return can be a top six forward, most likely a second-line forward?

With respect to a shutdown defenseman I don't see that type of acquisition being made unless it is a return for a Jack trade. There is a limited number of that type of elite defensemen that teams are very reluctant to shed such a valuable commodity. Having a well-rounded blue line unit and responsible forward play can help to compensate for the lack of a blue line ace. 

By shutdown defenceman, I did not mean Nik Lidstrom. Jay McKee is fine. I'd take Jake McCabe.

Keep Eichel, re-sign Ullmark and McCabe and we only need two more to be in contention, IMO.

At this point it doesn't look like we can count on them to do any of the above.

[Stoner]

57 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Granato's Sabres played at near .500 after the 18-game losing streak. Do that next year and your at least in contention.

Contention for what? After the streak they had 20 points in 22 games. That's a 74-point clip.

Also — that's the height of cooking the books. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...

[PromoTheRobot]

42 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Will next year's edition be better or worse?  On the plus side, Granato will have a full offseason to prepare and implement his system.  He will have some say in the makeup of the team (assuming a decent rapport with KA).  If KA does his job, there will be better goaltending.  With all that, they should be at least as good and probably better.

On the minus side, if they do in fact trade all three of JackSamRisto, that talent and experience is no longer on the bench.  I think Reino's contribution last year should not be overlooked; he was the workhorse of the Granato Sabres.  If he's gone, and Jack is gone, and there is no veteran replacement, then next man up is Mitts.  He's taken huge strides but expecting him to be a 1C for an entire season is folly.  At this stage of development, his absolute cap is 2C.

Of course on the other side of that minus side is the return from the JackSamRisto trades.  Do we get a not-quite-Eich-or-Sam-but-passable-veteran-1C in return?  I expect the return will primarily be prospects/young players, but somewhere they need to get a veteran center they can use for a year or two.

The point is that the Sabres might actually be worse next year than they were once Granato ended the losing streak.  You were right, Darcy, and you still are:  There will be suffering.

Also consider the schedule. We won't just be playing our formidable division.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Contention for what? After the streak they had 20 points in 22 games. That's a 74-point clip.

Also — that's the height of cooking the books. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln...

Yes. With castoffs and AHL players. After an 18- game skid where the whole team was read to walk off a cliff. 

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

By shutdown defenceman, I did not mean Nik Lidstrom. Jay McKee is fine. I'd take Jake McCabe.

Keep Eichel, re-sign Ullmark and McCabe and we only need two more to be in contention, IMO.

At this point it doesn't look like we can count on them to do any of the above.

I don't understand why you are so pessimistic? Retaining McCabe should be doable. So should re-signing Ullmark. If Risto is dealt the return should at least be a second-line forward. So your checklist is steadily being worked through. 

With respect to keeping Jack or Reinhart I don't know? My sense (guess) is that they are both going to be dealt. Needless to say this is going to be a an intriguing offseason. I have schizophrenic feelings entering the offseason: trepidation and excitement. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Granato's Sabres played at near .500 after the 18-game losing streak. Do that next year and your at least in contention.

0.500 keeps teams ~14 points out of the playoffs over an 82 game span.  They need to play at an 0.600 pace to get into the playoffs.  96+ needs to be the goal.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I don't understand why you are so pessimistic? Retaining McCabe should be doable. So should re-signing Ullmark. If Risto is dealt the return should at least be a second-line forward. So your checklist is steadily being worked through. 

With respect to keeping Jack or Reinhart I don't know? My sense (guess) is that they are both going to be dealt. Needless to say this is going to be a an intriguing offseason. I have schizophrenic feelings entering the offseason: trepidation and excitement. 

I don't see that as being pessimistic at all.

Yes, re-signing Ullmark and McCabe should be doable. That's much different than counting on it. You need desire and dollars from both sides, and McCabe's injury further clouds things. They might, they might not. And trading Risto (and Reinhart) just opens up different checklist boxes to tick.

With all due respect, my checklist isn't steadily being worked through, the work through hasn't even been started. That's not pessimistic, it's realistic.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I don't see that as being pessimistic at all.

Yes, re-signing Ullmark and McCabe should be doable. That's much different than counting on it. You need desire and dollars from both sides, and McCabe's injury further clouds things. They might, they might not. And trading Risto (and Reinhart) just opens up different checklist boxes to tick.

With all due respect, my checklist isn't steadily being worked through, the work through hasn't even been started. That's not pessimistic, it's realistic.

I really don't know how things are going to transpire this offseason. If the front office with the consent of the owners decide that its time for a major remake with our big three (Risto, Reinhart and Jack) being moved then I don't know what this roster is going to look like. It doesn't necessarily have to be catastrophic if handled adroitly but the timeline for reasonable contention will be set back. I'm not down or up on the prospects for this team. I just don't know????  

[PromoTheRobot]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

0.500 keeps teams ~14 points out of the playoffs over an 82 game span.  They need to play at an 0.600 pace to get into the playoffs.  96+ needs to be the goal.

The point was even with a train wreck of a team Granato got them playing near .500.

[sabremike]

22 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The point was even with a train wreck of a team Granato got them playing near .500.

9 wins out of 29 games is near .500?

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

9 wins out of 29 games is near .500?

I said after the 18-game losing streak. I also mean .500 points percentage, so that includes OT losses. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Weave]

30 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I said after the 18-game losing streak. I also mean .500 points percentage, so that includes OT losses. 

You can cherry pick any data set to get a positive or negative skew.  I’ll take the larger sample size to predict next season.

[Kruppstahl]

5 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Will next year's edition be better or worse?  On the plus side, Granato will have a full offseason to prepare and implement his system.  He will have some say in the makeup of the team (assuming a decent rapport with KA).  If KA does his job, there will be better goaltending.  With all that, they should be at least as good and probably better.

On the minus side, if they do in fact trade all three of JackSamRisto, that talent and experience is no longer on the bench.  I think Reino's contribution last year should not be overlooked; he was the workhorse of the Granato Sabres.  If he's gone, and Jack is gone, and there is no veteran replacement, then next man up is Mitts.  He's taken huge strides but expecting him to be a 1C for an entire season is folly.  At this stage of development, his absolute cap is 2C.

Of course on the other side of that minus side is the return from the JackSamRisto trades.  Do we get a not-quite-Eich-or-Sam-but-passable-veteran-1C in return?  I expect the return will primarily be prospects/young players, but somewhere they need to get a veteran center they can use for a year or two.

The point is that the Sabres might actually be worse next year than they were once Granato ended the losing streak.  You were right, Darcy, and you still are:  There will be suffering.

There are a lot of Sabres fans right now saying "Do x, y, and z" and we are in the playoffs no problem next year.

If only it was that simple.  No one here has any idea what this roster is going to look like next season; it could be vastly different.

Until we know who is on the team leading into the season, it's going to be very difficult to figure out how we might do.

Also, a lot of folks are subconsciously comparing Granato to Ralph, and concluding Granato is a coaching genius.

No, Ralph was the worst coach in franchise history who had no business being hired by any NHL franchise...

Did Granato show promise and make the most out of a bad situation?  Yes.

Personally, I think we will extend the HC search as long as possible b/c it's a great way to get free outside consultation about the state of health of the Sabres, and idea for how to proceed forward.

At the end of that learning session, I wouldn't be surprised if we name Granato permanent HC, and that's OK.

He seems to have the attention of the players and seems like a solid coach at this level.

He will have a short 3 year (?) life span like most of them anyway, so let it start now.

We can always shift to a seasoned, proven NHL veteran coach as the *next* coach if/when Granato starts to falter.

Those guys are *always* available..might even be one much better than anyone available right now.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

5 hours ago, Weave said:

You can cherry pick any data set to get a positive or negative skew.  I’ll take the larger sample size to predict next season.

Even when the larger sample skews your data inaccurately? Did you really expect Granato to take over from Krueger and install his system and start racking up wins day one? With no time for a practice? The end of the streak is a better gauge because he had some time to get players doing it his way.  But I get it. I've been here long enough. It's more fun to watch Pegula to hire another expensive dud.

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Weave]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Even when the larger sample skews your data inaccurately? Did you really expect Granato to take over from Krueger and install his system and start racking up wins day one? With no time for a practice? The end of the streak is a better gauge because he had some time to get players doing it his way.  But I get it. I've been here long enough. It's more fun to watch Pegula to hire another expensive dud.

 

Garbage time, a couple of teams taking this team too lightly, you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you concentrate on either end of that mess.  Reality is somewhere in the middle, which isn't playoff calibre with a goalie.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Weave

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Garbage time, a couple of teams taking this team too lightly, you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you concentrate on either end of that mess.  Reality is somewhere in the middle, which isn't playoff calibre with a goalie.

I can see that. The difference here is the play of Mitts, Tage, Asplund, etc. Players that did zippo under every other big deal coach we had. Along comes Donnie Meatballs and it's like someone flipped a switch.

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, Weave said:

You can cherry pick any data set to get a positive or negative skew.  I’ll take the larger sample size to predict next season.

It is tough to extrapolate anything from this unique Covid  and Krueger season. Our goalie situation for much of the season was dire, and after the belated jettisoning of Krueger the team was injected with a lot of young players who got a lot of playing time. It should also be factored in that there wasn't much practice time due to the compressed schedule, and especially after the coaching change not working on the change of systems and players' roles didn't help the cause. In spite of the lack of practice time the players adapted well to the change in the system.  

I'm not suggesting that your more negative view of the roster than what I have is not merited. You are likely to be more right than I am. Is it fair to make a more positive judgment about this team from the last 22 games or is it fairer to use your larger sample size to base a prediction for next season? Neither might be the right answer because the biggest influence in changing the dynamic for this team is what is going to be done in the offseason.  

[sabremike]

4 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Even when the larger sample skews your data inaccurately? Did you really expect Granato to take over from Krueger and install his system and start racking up wins day one? With no time for a practice? The end of the streak is a better gauge because he had some time to get players doing it his way.  But I get it. I've been here long. It's more fun to watch Pegula to hire another expensive dud.

 

I can't wait to hear the excuses when this team starts 3-15-3 next season. It's the only thing this organization is good at: Making excuses for the neverending failure, never taking responsibility for the neverending failure and never learning from their actions that have lead to neverending failure. You can take the romance of growing with Donnie for the next 5 seasons when we finally reach the dizzying heights of just missing out on the playoffs, I'll take competing for a playoff spot with Boudreau next season.

[Marvin]

For those who insist that I wallow in your weltschmerz, why must I assume that Don Granato must be a terrible head coach?  The scant evidence available would imply he is at least so-so.  The inexperienced GM/Head Coach combination who started a season 10-16-6 with a quarter-finalist in disarray got the team to game 6 of the semifinals in 1998.  IMHO, the improvement in the team's cohesion, execution, and grit verged on the miraculous given how young our defence was and how far down the depth chart we were in goal at the end.

Having said that...

Can those who enjoyed the end of the season as much as I did, please cool your jets?  Don Granato is statistically more likely to be mediocre like Floyd Smith, Marcel Pronovost, or Billy Inglis were than as good as Lindy Ruff was.  9-11-2 to end the season was nice -- but there are caveats.  They were often badly outshot for stretches.  They sometimes were defencively clueless.  Very strong teams could shut them down if they focused on it.

[Radar]

12 hours ago, Weave said:

Garbage time, a couple of teams taking this team too lightly, you are setting yourself up for disappointment if you concentrate on either end of that mess.  Reality is somewhere in the middle, which isn't playoff calibre with a goalie.

While I'm on record as being okay with Donato, I agree with your assessment that it was a small sample size of games. Not sure teams took them lightly as they were playing for playoff positions. I would keep Granato if you can't get a successful proven NHL coach. I have doubts you're going to get one as many teams will be looking for one. If we're looking at assistants or such then keep Granato. My bet right now is that's how it plays out. BB and Gallant? Doubt they would pick us over other offers.

[steveoath]

I think @radar has nailed it. Granato has improved the youngsters. I think that no "veteran" coach has us as their dream destination, so we may talk to them but still end up with Granato.

Who is looking for a HC?

NYR

Krackheads

CBJ

Yotes

Us

Do any playoff coaches get sacked this year?

My money would be on Gallant for Seattle or NY. The talk I've heard from Columbus podcaster [guesting on Locked On NHL] is that Jarmo is looking at non NHL HC guys. Does Boudreau has any "magic sauce" that would make him appealing to an organisation? Torts plus our young guys doesn't seem like the most savvy move. Tocchet? Can't say I've given him any thought tbh. Quinn? the BU connection with Jack - too much pandering to our resident pout-monger?

 

Side note - I'd love to see Ralph land a new HC job just to watch from the outside.

Edited May 18, 2021 by steveoath

[LGR4GM]

Maybe Jarmo goes with a college or euro coach. 

[Brawndo]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-bus-with-cammi-aj/id1546162389
 

Interesting conversation with Donny Meatballs He doesn’t mind the Nickname. 

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-bus-with-cammi-aj/id1546162389
 

Interesting conversation with Donny Meatballs He doesn’t mind the Nickname. 

Yeh now I want him as the coach... wow what a listen...