Don Granato as a HC

[PromoTheRobot]

On March 27th, after 18 straight losses, the Sabres were 6-23-4, 14 points behind the Devils.

12 games later they are 12-26-7, 3 points behind the Devils and Senators, and 4 points out of 28th place. Granato equaled RK's win total in 12 games.

Edited April 19, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Playing hockey rather than monkey in the middle has far more to do with them looking good in the 3rd than some miraculous conditioning runs that can only run about 40 minutes anyhow on most of the non-game days IMHO.

I disagree with your opinion. 

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

It's almonst been their defining characteristic, like the other teams run and out gas and they just keep coming.

Whether it's conditioning or playing smarter hockey (I think it's both), this characteristic is a most welcome change and I think it's a solid result of Granato's coaching.

[pi2000]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Anyone know what Granato has looked like compared to Krueger just over the last 10 games?

       	Ralph		Donny last 10 games (league ranking in parens)
CF%	48.87(18)	43.90(28)
SF%	47.27(28)	44.83(26)
xGF/60	2.09(29)	2.41(13)
xGA/60	2.59(29)	2.72(25)
HDCF/60	10.04(17)	10.68(12)
HDCA/60	10.40(20)	11.29(21)
SH%	5.92(31)	11.72(2)
HDSH%	12.14(31)	21.13(7)
SV%	88.98(30)	92.56(8)
HDSV%	80.40(22)	89.47(6)

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

On March 27th, after 18 straight losses, the Sabres were 6-23-4, 14 points behind the Devils.

12 games later they are 12-26-7, 3 points behind the Devils and Senators, and 4 points out of 28th place. Granato equaled RK's win total in 12 games.

Go Sabres.  Get out of the cellar by learning to win.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, Norcal said:

The Penguins broadcast from last night referred to the Sabres playing a better style of hockey, one more suited for today's game.

Ouch, if that doesn't say it all about RK. 

If you think that comment was harsh consider this.  A  couple games ago on the NBC TV broadcast one of the announcers said that the Sabres in this game look like a genuine NHL hockey team. 🤡

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://theathletic.com/2525143/2021/04/16/don-granato-has-breathed-life-into-the-sabres-this-season-but-is-he-the-right-coach-for-their-future/
 

These quotes say it all.

“I like the style we’ve been able to play,” leading scorer Sam Reinhart said. “We’ve been able to skate more and play a faster game.”

“Everyone on the ice knows what they’re supposed to do at any time,” defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen said. “There is less chaos in the D-zone and we are not running around.”

My biggest reservation about Granato is that he was on RK’s staff and presumably sat passively by as RK destroyed the team. 

[Brawndo]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://theathletic.com/2525143/2021/04/16/don-granato-has-breathed-life-into-the-sabres-this-season-but-is-he-the-right-coach-for-their-future/
 

These quotes say it all.

“I like the style we’ve been able to play,” leading scorer Sam Reinhart said. “We’ve been able to skate more and play a faster game.”

“Everyone on the ice knows what they’re supposed to do at any time,” defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen said. “There is less chaos in the D-zone and we are not running around.”

My biggest reservation about Granato is that he was on RK’s staff and presumably sat passively by as RK destroyed the team. 

Asst Coaches are to be seen and not heard, in many cases. 
 

Do you think Rod Brind’amour agreed with Bill Peters Coaching Methods? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Asst Coaches are to be seen and not heard, in many cases. 
 

Do you think Rod Brind’amour agreed with Bill Peters Coaching Methods? 

Probably not, but to use an NFL analogy, teams usually hire the coordinators from good teams, not the OC from the lowest scoring offense.  Granted was clearly handicapped by Rasputin’s system. My guess is RK told Granato to run the offense as you see fit as long as you adhere to the RK/Smith D system. An impossible task. Maybe he even said something to KA behind the scenes which is why he kept his job.

Also nothing like seizing an opportunity and showing you can make a difference.  A 50% increase in offense from a team without Eichel and Hall or an effective PP is a miracle. 

[Huckleberry]

54 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

       	Ralph		Donny last 10 games (league ranking in parens)
CF%	48.87(18)	43.90(28)
SF%	47.27(28)	44.83(26)
xGF/60	2.09(29)	2.41(13)
xGA/60	2.59(29)	2.72(25)
HDCF/60	10.04(17)	10.68(12)
HDCA/60	10.40(20)	11.29(21)
SH%	5.92(31)	11.72(2)
HDSH%	12.14(31)	21.13(7)
SV%	88.98(30)	92.56(8)
HDSV%	80.40(22)	89.47(6)

 

don't know what all this means, but stats saying its more puck luck ? 

 

[Norcal]

50 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you think that comment was harsh consider this.  A  couple games ago on the NBC TV broadcast one of the announcers said that the Sabres in this game look like a genuine NHL hockey team. 🤡

Everybody knew Ralph sucked but nobody wanted to say it out loud. 

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

don't know what all this means, but stats saying its more puck luck ? 

 

Their possession numbers CF% are down significantly, ranking near bottom of the league the past 10 games, also giving up a lot of high danger chances, more than under Ralph.

They're winning because their high danger save % and high danger shooting % are near the top of the league.

So yeah, they're giving up more defensively, but shooting at a high % and getting superb goaltending.   That's nice, but not really sustainable over an entire season IMO.   They need to cut down on scoring chances against.

[SDS]

21 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Their possession numbers CF% are down significantly, ranking near bottom of the league the past 10 games, also giving up a lot of high danger chances, more than under Ralph.

They're winning because their high danger save % and high danger shooting % are near the top of the league.

So yeah, they're giving up more defensively, but shooting at a high % and getting superb goaltending.   That's nice, but not really sustainable over an entire season IMO.   They need to cut down on scoring chances against.

That doesn’t pass the eye test.

[Randall Flagg]

38 minutes ago, SDS said:

That doesn’t pass the eye test.

I'm struggling to meld these conflicts as well.

I don't think we're playing GREAT hockey, but it's tough to take any of this at face value. I'd love to see someone do a film dive to try and explain it

Edited April 20, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[darksabre]

Even if what pi says is true, what I'd be interested in is how often they're giving up second and third opportunities off of an initial shot on goal. It seems to me like Tokarski is seeing a lot of one and done opportunities. 

Best way to make a replacement level goalie look good is to make sure they don't have to be Hasek to keep followup chances out.

[inkman]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Their possession numbers CF% are down significantly, ranking near bottom of the league the past 10 games, also giving up a lot of high danger chances, more than under Ralph.

They're winning because their high danger save % and high danger shooting % are near the top of the league.

So yeah, they're giving up more defensively, but shooting at a high % and getting superb goaltending.   That's nice, but not really sustainable over an entire season IMO.   They need to cut down on scoring chances against.

After their abysmal start in those metrics, isn’t this just regression to the mean. 

[pi2000]

27 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Even if what pi says is true, what I'd be interested in is how often they're giving up second and third opportunities off of an initial shot on goal. It seems to me like Tokarski is seeing a lot of one and done opportunities. 

Best way to make a replacement level goalie look good is to make sure they don't have to be Hasek to keep followup chances out.

 

1 hour ago, SDS said:

That doesn’t pass the eye test.

Go to https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ and pick date ranges to see for yourself.  Ralph was fired March 17.

They're generating 2 more shots per 60min (at ES) than they did under Ralph.... but shooting % is way up from 5.92% to almost 12%.  

Let's break that down a bit...

Under Ralph they generated about 26 shots/60 (at ES)  w/ a 5.92% shooting percentage.... that's about 1.5 goals/60 (at ES).

Under Don, the past 10 games, they generated about 29 shots/60 (at ES)  w/ an 11.72% shooting percentage.... that's 3.4 goals/60 (at ES).

Their save percentage (at ES) increased from 89% to 92%, and even tho they're giving up more shots, they're allowing fewer goals/60 (at ES).  

Ralph, 30 shots allowed/60, 88.98% save percentage = 3.3 goals allowed/60 (at ES).

Don (last 10 games), 35 shots allowed/60, 92.18% save percentage = 2.7 goals allowed/60 (at ES).  

So yeah, they're winning, but it's not because they're giving up fewer shots, fewer high danger chances, or playing better in their own end.    It's because of better goaltending and better shooting percentage.  

Edited April 20, 2021 by pi2000

[bunomatic]

All I know is that win or lose the product is fun to watch. Under Ralph All we saw from Dahlin was a kid afraid to make mistakes. He’s only one example of that on a team where nobody could score. Ralphs system sucked ⚽️ ‘s. Now Rasmus is controlling play like we’ve rarely seen. Go down the list. Mitts, Tage, Dylan, Joki, Risto, Asplund, they’re all enjoying the game like Ralph never interrupted their careers. It does pass the eye test.

[Marvin]

4 hours ago, pi2000 said:

       	Ralph		Donny last 10 games (league ranking in parens)
CF%	48.87(18)	43.90(28)
SF%	47.27(28)	44.83(26)
xGF/60	2.09(29)	2.41(13)
xGA/60	2.59(29)	2.72(25)
HDCF/60	10.04(17)	10.68(12)
HDCA/60	10.40(20)	11.29(21)
SH%	5.92(31)	11.72(2)
HDSH%	12.14(31)	21.13(7)
SV%	88.98(30)	92.56(8)
HDSV%	80.40(22)	89.47(6)

 

We should take into account that we are playing a much tougher schedule now than then.  Moreover, we were extremely conservative and passive under XHCRK.  Thus, it would not surprise me if our defencive metrics are somewhat worse under HCDG even when we equalise for schedule.

Moreover, early in the year, an absurd amount of the Sabres shots and goals came on power plays; those _should_ be more dangerous on average.  Now, virtually all the scoring is at even strength.

One point that gets lost in the statistics (being a numbers guy myself) is that the Sabres are much more aggressive in the offencive zone.  IMHO, they are getting more shots when the goalie isn't fully set, when the defenders are out of position, from screens, from rebounds, or from defencive fatigue.  IMHO, the improved offencive metrics are no mirage.

I also think the more precise execution matters.  They aren't coughing the puck up on flubbed passes nearly as often.  They string multiple accurate passes together, which means we don't get hemmed in the zone as often.  The improved passing also makes rushes and offencive zone plays that much more dangerous.  Did anyone else get the feeling that goaltenders cheated towards our puck carriers earlier in the year because a pass was going to miss the guy's stick?

We are better positioned defencively and players are not nearly as hesitant in finding their assignments.  Pucks are getting cleared or covered more often.

There are metrics out there which we could collect, but no one does because the game is so fast.  But if we measured quality execution of hockey fundamentals, we have undeniably improved; hence we look better and play better.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Marvin, Sabres Fan

[MODO Hockey]

6 hours ago, pi2000 said:

 

Go to https://www.naturalstattrick.com/ and pick date ranges to see for yourself.  Ralph was fired March 17.

They're generating 2 more shots per 60min (at ES) than they did under Ralph.... but shooting % is way up from 5.92% to almost 12%.  

Let's break that down a bit...

Under Ralph they generated about 26 shots/60 (at ES)  w/ a 5.92% shooting percentage.... that's about 1.5 goals/60 (at ES).

Under Don, the past 10 games, they generated about 29 shots/60 (at ES)  w/ an 11.72% shooting percentage.... that's 3.4 goals/60 (at ES).

Their save percentage (at ES) increased from 89% to 92%, and even tho they're giving up more shots, they're allowing fewer goals/60 (at ES).  

Ralph, 30 shots allowed/60, 88.98% save percentage = 3.3 goals allowed/60 (at ES).

Don (last 10 games), 35 shots allowed/60, 92.18% save percentage = 2.7 goals allowed/60 (at ES).  

So yeah, they're winning, but it's not because they're giving up fewer shots, fewer high danger chances, or playing better in their own end.    It's because of better goaltending and better shooting percentage.  

It's also because of a new system that make it possible to increase the shooting percentage. Just saying

[triumph_communes]

Descriptive statistics can’t conclude luck.  They don’t distinguish between the players actually playing a system where they pass to the front of the net and have 2 on 1s all of a suddden vs ones that are in the front of the net with defenders hounding them getting junk shots off and breakaways where they never get separation. And those are the differences we’re seeing now. 

[darksabre]

Another can't-miss Donny Meatballs interview on WGR right now

[Doohicksie]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My biggest reservation about Granato is that he was on RK’s staff and presumably sat passively by as RK destroyed the team. 

After what happened to Chris Taylor he might have decided to just do what he could from the sidelines.  There are different ways to deal with a toxic work environment.

[Doohicksie]

11 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

don't know what all this means, but stats saying its more puck luck ?

I think the Sabres will be an object lesson in the shortfalls of sports modeling, aka "fancystats."  Even with all the stats they've gone from a simple model to a static model.  They need to start to incorporate dynamics in their model.  In other words, current fancystats take into account where on the ice shots are coming from but not how fast the puck was moving prior to the shot, how fast the players were moving, etc.  Someone will do that as a thesis for their statistics masters and be able to show why Granato could be so much more successful than Krueger with only modest improvements, or no changes at all, in currently used stats.

[Randall Flagg]

10 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

We should take into account that we are playing a much tougher schedule now than then.  Moreover, we were extremely conservative and passive under XHCRK.  Thus, it would not surprise me if our defencive metrics are somewhat worse under HCDG even when we equalise for schedule.

Moreover, early in the year, an absurd amount of the Sabres shots and goals came on power plays; those _should_ be more dangerous on average.  Now, virtually all the scoring is at even strength.

One point that gets lost in the statistics (being a numbers guy myself) is that the Sabres are much more aggressive in the offencive zone.  IMHO, they are getting more shots when the goalie isn't fully set, when the defenders are out of position, from screens, from rebounds, or from defencive fatigue.  IMHO, the improved offencive metrics are no mirage.

I also think the more precise execution matters.  They aren't coughing the puck up on flubbed passes nearly as often.  They string multiple accurate passes together, which means we don't get hemmed in the zone as often.  The improved passing also makes rushes and offencive zone plays that much more dangerous.  Did anyone else get the feeling that goaltenders cheated towards our puck carriers earlier in the year because a pass was going to miss the guy's stick?

We are better positioned defencively and players are not nearly as hesitant in finding their assignments.  Pucks are getting cleared or covered more often.

There are metrics out there which we could collect, but no one does because the game is so fast.  But if we measured quality execution of hockey fundamentals, we have undeniably improved; hence we look better and play better.

Also, point shots. We went on a 7 game streak where our only goals were on the PP or shot in from the point.