Don Granato as a HC

[SDS]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It may have been life got in the way. He had a serious bout of cancer in his late 30s when his resume was just starting to reach that place.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/31194727/the-human-side-buffalo-sabres-18-game-winless-streak-2021

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Thanks. That does change my thinking on him a little bit. It makes me wonder why he hasn't gotten a shot in the NHL before now. I'd still treat him as a candidate after the season as if he never got the interim job here. I don't put much weight on these games. I think that adds up to Granato shouldn't be a serious candidate.

In the interview this morning Dan said he had never really been focused on climbing the ladder and just did what he needed to do every day and let the pieces fall where they may. Depending upon if you believe the words in an interview, he always comes across as a hockey coach first and his career trajectory is an afterthought.

[pi2000]

39 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This doesn't agree with my eye test.  The Sabres didn't look near as dangerous offensively under Krueger.  I'm not saying the numbers are wrong, just that it doesn't match my memory.

I agree, I was expecting them to be generating more scoring chances under Granato.... which is what my eyes were telling me.   

RK was fired march 17th.   Considering it may have taken 2 weeks for the stink of RK to wear off, we'll take a look at high danger numbers since April 1st. 

HDChancesFor/60: 9.99 (11th worst in the league)
HDChancesAgainst/60: 12.25 (7th worst)

...those numbers are actually significantly worse than under RK.

That said, even strength shooting % since April 1st is 12% (5.9% under RK)... second best in the entire league.    Is that sustainable?

Based on these numbers you could even say they're playing worse as a team under Granato, but are getting lucky recently.

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I agree, I was expecting them to be generating more scoring chances under Granato.... which is what my eyes were telling me.   

RK was fired march 17th.   Considering it may have taken 2 weeks for the stink of RK to wear off, we'll take a look at high danger numbers since April 1st. 

HDChancesFor/60: 9.99 (11th worst in the league)
HDChancesAgainst/60: 12.25 (7th worst)

...those numbers are actually significantly worse than under RK.

That said, even strength shooting % since April 1st is 12% (5.9% under RK)... second best in the entire league.    Is that sustainable?

Based on these numbers you could even say they're playing worse as a team under Granato, but are getting lucky recently.

This reminds me of 2018-19. There was a ~10 game stretch before the 10 game win streak in which I thought the Sabres played the best hockey I had seen from them in 8 years, but their record was mediocre. Then during the streak I felt almost every game like they were being caved in, but pulling it out. 

I continue to be grateful for Granato, for whatever his role is in the improvements I'm seeing with important players, but wouldn't really consider hiring him unless we get 10+ wins the rest of the way, and even then, I would likely choose someone else if I could

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

That said, even strength shooting % since April 1st is 12% (5.9% under RK)... second best in the entire league.    Is that sustainable?

Based on these numbers you could even say they're playing worse as a team under Granato, but are getting lucky recently.

As a team, no, 12% shooting percentage is not likely sustainable. However, six games is a very small sample size considering one of those games featured 5 goals on only 18 shots.

[DarthEbriate]

On a grander scheme (and my counting may be off here, I didn't rely on any calculator or tables, just plain-ol-Ebriate math). I didn't count SO goals for, so RaKru lost 2 and Granato lost 1 goal.

Granato 37 goals in 13 games = 2.85 goals/game

RaKru 58 goals in 28 games = 2.07 goals/game (despite a then top-5 PP by percentage thanks to us lighting up NJD on the PP early in the year)

[Doohicksie]

43 minutes ago, SDS said:

he always comes across as a hockey coach first and his career trajectory is an afterthought.

This is the kind of person I prefer (in life, in general).  Career Climbers turn me off.

16 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Based on these numbers you could even say they're playing worse as a team under Granato, but are getting lucky recently.

This is precisely why I am dubious about fancystats.  They can provide data but not necessarily wisdom.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just look at how much the roster has changed since opening night

Hall Eichel Reinhart

Olofsson Staal Cozens

Rieder Eakin Sheahan

Skinner Lazar Thompson

Dahlin Jokiharju

McCabe Risto

Montour Miller

Hutton Ullmark

 

Current Roster

Skinner Reinhart Okposo

Asplund Mitts Thompson

Olofsson Cozens Sheahan

Bjork Eakin Rieder

Dahlin Jokiharju

Bryson Ristolainen

Irwin Miller

Ullmark Togarski

 

 

[Doohicksie]

Every fancystat is an attempt to reduce hockey plays to a model.  I think they don't adequately measure the difference between Krueger and Granato.  I get the feeling that the difference is motion.  The Sabres initiate motion with Granato rather than chasing motion under Krueger.  They're moving when they're on offense under Granato, they seemed more static under Krueger.  That's not factored into the Fancystats model.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

People need to remember this the next time they feel the need to defend the Pegula’s. They have ruined this franchise. 😡

It's undeniable that he Pegulas have stupendously misruled this franchise. Anyone who is clueless enough to disagree with that obvious assessment should review the team's inglorious record under their stewardship. If they can't be embarrassed by what has transpired this season then they are irretrievably shameless. But let's not forget that when the Pegulas bought the Bills they grossly blundered for the first few years as new owners. The hiring of the clownish Rex Ryan was not only a bad hire but it was also a weird hire! But after a few years they hired the right people (McDermott and Beane)  to run the operation, and in short order not only did the team start to excel but the organization is now recognized as one of the better run franchises in the league.  Can the same cycle of upswing happen with the hockey franchise? I guardingly  believe so assuming the hockey staff is upgraded and fully staffed. If anyone doesn't believe that having the right staff makes a difference then look at the dramatic improvement under the new coach. The level of play is now astoundingly better and more aesthetically pleasing. Truth be told I stopped watching the Sabres and came back to the fold when the product was deserved to be watched. 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

 

I don’t think this is the right take.  I don’t know what’s in the owners heads, but from that press conference announcing Adams it was clear they were imposing some level of austerity and hitting the reset button for this coming fanless year. Confounding that was the signing of Hall. I don’t know how to reconcile the two, but I don’t believe the owners made all those cuts because they thought that was just fine. I think they took drastic measures to save money in a super weird year and the organization will go back to normal staffing levels moving forward.

It's not difficult to understand the financial reasons for why the owners took the austerity route. However, they saved a penny in the present in order to lose future dollars. The implications of how they responded to this stressful economic environment will reverberate beyond this season.  Now they are dealing with a season where the team is a bottom feeder. And this is after already undergoing a brutal rebuild.  How many current fans and future fans have tuned out? And let's not forget that the Pegulas were not the only owners facing this health crisis. My point is that this is a man-made disaster that has made the interminable rebuilding process even longer. The end result is that they lost in the short-term and hurt them in the long-term. That's not very smart. 

[SDS]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

It's not difficult to understand the financial reasons for why the owners took the austerity route. However, they saved a penny in the present in order to lose future dollars. The implications of how they responded to this stressful economic environment will reverberate beyond this season.  Now they are dealing with a season where the team is a bottom feeder. And this is after already undergoing a brutal rebuild.  How many current fans and future fans have tuned out? And let's not forget that the Pegulas were not the only owners facing this health crisis. My point is that this is a man-made disaster that has made the interminable rebuilding process even longer. The end result is that they lost in the short-term and hurt them in the long-term. That's not very smart. 

I’m too lazy to look back at the reason given, but someone said something to the effect of the Pegulas think they could run an NHL team with a skeleton crew the same as any other team. I don’t believe that’s the case. I think they were trying to save money and just hoped for the best and get through this current season. I think everything will be stepped back up to normal levels in short order. 

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, SDS said:

I’m too lazy to look back at the reason given, but someone said something to the effect of the Pegulas think they could run an NHL team with a skeleton crew the same as any other team. I don’t believe that’s the case. I think they were trying to save money and just hoped for the best and get through this current season. I think everything will be stepped back up to normal levels in short order. 

I agree with you that the operation will go back up to a more NHL standard level. But it is my belief that this short-term approach set the franchise back from both a competitive and financial standpoint stemming from fan participation. However, I believe that they could have kept the organization in tack and made better player contract decisions that would have save the same if not money. Your citing the Hall contract is an example of that. If you dig a hole deeper you end up having to spend more time filling it. 

[Marvin]

53 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This is the kind of person I prefer (in life, in general).  Career Climbers turn me off.

This is precisely why I am dubious about fancystats.  They can provide data but not necessarily wisdom.

The Sabres are taking more chances.  I would bet that they are worse under HCDG than XHCRK because the more aggressive mindset leads to a few more chances against.  On the other hand, I bet if we measured the data more carefully than most current fancy stats, we would see that we are getting more shots which are open and in better position than before 5-on-5.  I would love to see a spreadsheet of position, angle, "openness", etc. of shots before and after XHCRK.

49 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Every fancystat is an attempt to reduce hockey plays to a model.  I think they don't adequately measure the difference between Krueger and Granato.  I get the feeling that the difference is motion.  The Sabres initiate motion with Granato rather than chasing motion under Krueger.  They're moving when they're on offense under Granato, they seemed more static under Krueger.  That's not factored into the Fancystats model.

Always remember: models are an attempt to simulate reality; they are not reality itself.  Things like how you feel about your system, how precisely you are executing it, etc. are notoriously hard to model.  Those of you in Operations Research and Stochastic Modelling can attest to that.

[JoeSchmoe]

23 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Always remember: models are an attempt to simulate reality; they are not reality itself.  Things like how you feel about your system, how precisely you are executing it, etc. are notoriously hard to model.  Those of you in Operations Research and Stochastic Modelling can attest to that.

And it's as I said before... The human brain can beat a supercomputer in chess. Some things are just better modeled than others.

On that note, I would say baseball is much easier to model than hockey. Hockey advanced stat guy wants to be Moneyball guy, but the nature of the game makes it much less accurate of a science (or should I say art).

[Marvin]

6 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

And it's as I said before... The human brain can beat a supercomputer in chess. Some things are just better modeled than others.

On that note, I would say baseball is much easier to model than hockey. Hockey advanced stat guy wants to be Moneyball guy, but the nature of the game makes it much less accurate of a science (or should I say art).

Sadly, the bolded is wrong.  The top engines are rated several hundred ELO points above top humans.

The italicised makes sense: Baseball has easily defined segments which can be easily quantified and correlated.  Hockey, as @pi2000 pointed out, is much more fluid and its only easily quantified numbers are goals and, to a lesser extent, shots.  Hockey needs more hypothesis testing at sigma = 2+ standards.  I feel more confident about the conclusions from the muon g-2 experiments than I am about many hockey advanced stats -- and I am a huge proponent of these kinds of expansions of the standard hockey statistics.

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

The top engines are rated several hundred ELO points above top humans

I was waiting for someone to mention this as this is a relatively new development, but the point remains the same. 

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

RK had Eichel, Hall, Staal, and McCabe.  Granato has had none of those players and gave expanded roles to Asplund, Thompson, Bryson and Mitts.  He also got Dahlin and Jokiharju back on track.  So on paper the team is performing better with a younger and theoretically worse roster. 

To the bolded: Eichel was a shell of himself since day 1, though he was still generating ~1PPG.  Staal, unfortunately, was addition by subtraction.  And, based on the comments in the Hall threads, pretty sure his departure is also viewed as a plus (though the return clearly isn't viewed that way by many).  McCabe being out is definitely a loss.

And though people are saying the team is performing better, except for games vs Filly (and their goaltending effectiveness pre/post coaching transition is night & day) the results are identical.  

Hoping they do go on a tear & have something for the kids to truly build on starting on Day 1 in October; but until they do have actual improved results, it is wishful thinking.  Maybe that can start tonight.  (Just hitting the anthems now, so no idea what's happened so far in Beantown.)

[darksabre]

I'm pretty confident at this point the Don Granato actually hates Ralph.
 

 

[Gabrielor]

If Granato is indeed a critical piece to the advancement of the young guys, you have to keep him.

 

Yes, he may have a ceiling on how far he can take them, and a vet coach may go further, but the risk is also this new core collapsing under old-style thinking returning.

[JoeSchmoe]

5 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

the risk is also this new core collapsing under old-style thinking returning

And the risk of Eakin and the other washed up vets going back to getting prime minutes.

[Andrew Amerk]

I wouldn’t have said this 2 weeks ago, but maybe Donny G is the man.

He seems to have a pulse on the players he has, he seems to game plan for each team, and he seems confident in his mixes and when he alters them. 

There’s still a handful of games left, mostly against the hated Bruins, but I’ve liked what I have seen thus far. 

[Randall Flagg]

Something about the guy feels natural and right. Worried that ignoring this will incur another round of wrath from the hockey gods.

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Something about the guy feels natural and right. Worried that ignoring this will incur another round of wrath from the hockey gods.

I mean, if he keeps this team at a Deluca .500 pace for the rest of the year you basically have to give him the job right? I'm not gonna necessarily say it's the best decision, but I'd need to see some compelling arguments against it to be opposed. 

[Norcal]

Granato will coach in the NHL next year I believe.

In Buffalo or not. 

[Norcal]

1 hour ago, Gabrielor said:

If Granato is indeed a critical piece to the advancement of the young guys, you have to keep him.

 

Yes, he may have a ceiling on how far he can take them, and a vet coach may go further, but the risk is also this new core collapsing under old-style thinking returning.

Maybe he takes em as far as he can and when or if they plateau again you bring in the vet to push em over the edge.