Trading Linus Ullmark

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

• Driedger: 15 NHL games prior to this year
• Grubauer: better stats than Linus, had similar stats to Linus at a similar age when he was acquired for a 2nd. Going to make good coin this summer
• Talbot: similar stats to Linus, backup last year, SP .908 and .893 the two previous years
• Fleury: similar stats to Linus, $7 million cap hit
• Smith: similar stats to Linus, 37 years old, a pure stopgap who had terrible numbers the previous two seasons, losing the number spot on two different teams
• Varlamov: similar stats to Linus, signed to 4 years @ $5 million per, cost a 1st and 2nd to acquire
• Lankinen: Worse stats than Linus, the 27 NHL games he played this year are the 2nd most he has ever played as a pro. Going into the season with him as your #1 would be like us handing the reins to JJ. This board would have melted down

 

Linus has one peer on that list as a developmental prospect who showed steady progress and now has arrived: Grubauer, and Grubauer is going to get paid this summer.

Rask, Fleury and Varly are/were expensive acquisitions, Bernier, Smith and Talbot are veteran stopgaps enjoying good rebound years after three straight down years, Anderson is those guys two years ago. Lankinen and Driedger are out-of-nowhere keepers.

Linus has gotten better every single year. Literally. He arrived as an NHL starter last year and as a stud this year.

Linus Ullmark has allowed more than three goals just once all year — the 4-3 OT loss to Philly. His last "bad" game was Jan. 9, 2020, when he allowed 4 in 30 shots against the Blues. He consistently gives us a chance to win. He's probably the best shootout goalie in hockey.

There isn't a Sabre who does his job better. He's focused, consistent, calm, competitive and talented. He's also young enough that he will be good for a while.

He is actually what you dream happens when you draft a goalie in the late rounds and patiently develop him.

Chucking that away to sign Freddie Andersen to a one-year cross-your-fingers-he-rebounds deal is pound-foolish, because all that does is mean you are paying Andersen big money or looking for his replacement a year from now while Linus gives some other team a fighting chance for the next five years.

Bet on your guy, reward him for rewarding you.

Excellent post, as always.

But:  Linus has delivered a pretty small body of work to base a 5-year commitment on.

In his 2 years as a starter, including one in which he apparently became a stud, he started 34 games and 16 games.  The 34-game season was over for the Sabres at around the halfway mark, when they nosedived after a 10-game win streak and Linus didn’t pull them out of it.  And the 16-game season was, shockingly, over at the 20% mark.  That certainly wasn’t Ullmark’s fault, but the Sabres sure haven’t gotten their opponents’ A games for the bulk of Ullmark’s 50 starts.

 Making a big commitment to Ullmark now isn’t from outer space.  But I’d be fine with any of quite a few combinations of 2 of the guys I listed on short term deals.

 

 

 

[Thorner]

10 hours ago, Second Line Center said:

 

Sorry if I missed if posted...

They are now 7-5-3 when Ullmark starts.  

1-18-3 in the others.   

That's your stat of the year imo.  

 

I want him and anyone other then Hutton to compete for the job and let it sort out knowing Ullmark is reliable and potentially beginning to put it all together.  

Yep

I can't even consider not signing Ullmark when it would mean we'd have to bring in 2 good goalies, when KA couldn't even bring in 1. 

[Huckleberry]

Yeah maybe best not to let him go , but he isn't signed right now so we might lose him for nothing ? 

[dudacek]

Why is Linus carrying this "injury history" label? He missed a month this year and a month last year.

I'm not aware of anything significant prior to that, in North America or Sweden except that elective hip surgery thing, which is neither injury-related nor degenerative. There is nothing that raises concern as a recurring issue, like Okposo's concussions.

Seems to be pretty standard for a pro hockey player.

[dudacek]

Vogl with a deep dive into Linus' season and his future:

https://theathletic.com/2500079/2021/04/05/what-should-the-sabres-do-with-goalie-linus-ullmark-his-career-has-been-on-a-steady-incline/

Vogl talks about the loss of Linus' father and his separation from his family, including his newborn daughter. It reads like he tried to talk about his contract and got rebuffed:

So, with that in mind, please forgive Ullmark for not contemplating his status as a pending unrestricted free agent.

 

The piece spends a lot of time setting the table:

There were signs heading into the year that Ullmark was ready to establish himself. Last season, his even-strength save percentage ranked seventh in the league. His overall save percentage climbed to 18th from 51st.

This year, his even-strength percentage of .928 ranks 10th while he’s lifted his shorthanded save percentage from .838 to .890.

“His career has been on a steady incline,” Granato said. “Linus is a No. 1 goalie.”

"Ullmark’s number will go up with the open market waiting. The No. 31 goalie spot in the 31-team NHL is Anton Khudobin’s $3.33 million. The No. 15 position belongs to Robin Lehner and his $5 million deal."

 

Lots of UFA goalies this year. Teams with better scouting staffs than Sabrespace will have Linus at the top of the list along with Grubauer. He will get paid.

[darksabre]

21 hours ago, dudacek said:

Why is Linus carrying this "injury history" label? He missed a month this year and a month last year.

I'm not aware of anything significant prior to that, in North America or Sweden except that elective hip surgery thing, which is neither injury-related nor degenerative. There is nothing that raises concern as a recurring issue, like Okposo's concussions.

Seems to be pretty standard for a pro hockey player.

I would also note that I think goalies on bad teams are more likely to get injured because they are forced to make more high injury risk saves. 

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Vogl with a deep dive into Linus' season and his future:

https://theathletic.com/2500079/2021/04/05/what-should-the-sabres-do-with-goalie-linus-ullmark-his-career-has-been-on-a-steady-incline/

Vogl talks about the loss of Linus' father and his separation from his family, including his newborn daughter. It reads like he tried to talk about his contract and got rebuffed:

So, with that in mind, please forgive Ullmark for not contemplating his status as a pending unrestricted free agent.

 

The piece spends a lot of time setting the table:

There were signs heading into the year that Ullmark was ready to establish himself. Last season, his even-strength save percentage ranked seventh in the league. His overall save percentage climbed to 18th from 51st.

This year, his even-strength percentage of .928 ranks 10th while he’s lifted his shorthanded save percentage from .838 to .890.

“His career has been on a steady incline,” Granato said. “Linus is a No. 1 goalie.”

"Ullmark’s number will go up with the open market waiting. The No. 31 goalie spot in the 31-team NHL is Anton Khudobin’s $3.33 million. The No. 15 position belongs to Robin Lehner and his $5 million deal."

 

Lots of UFA goalies this year. Teams with better scouting staffs than Sabrespace will have Linus at the top of the list along with Grubauer. He will get paid.

Was there any insight on why his last contract was only one year, and not a multi year extension?  Do you think this was an Adams/Ownership decision or bilateral? 
p.s. Did Vogl share his byline with you?