Trading Linus Ullmark

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

I didn't say it was better. I said offset 

Yeah, I got in before your edit.

Just go look at the goalies signed to larger contracts and how many of them are performing at an above average level. (Maybe you have, I’m just saying).  It’s pretty startling.  It’s basically 50/50 whether the guy is even producing an above average sv%.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yeah, I got in before your edit.

Just go look at the goalies signed to larger contracts and how many of them are performing at an above average level. (Maybe you have, I’m just saying).  It’s pretty startling.  It’s basically 50/50 whether the guy is even producing an above average sv%.

50/50, so I'm all for trying to keep the term reasonable - but what are the odds, if we don't sign him at all, that our GT situation works out? Especially now we are in the market for 2? You have to make some bets we just make too many historically and the odds have been too long. 

If they prioritize the need for a true backup and team that with Ullmark and his 50/50 (if we can't get him at something a bit shorter), I'll take that bet. I think we need him to work out anyways if we have a chance at solidifying the position in the near term, and if we don't sign him, he's not here working out - to a certainty. 

Edited April 4, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

With all due respect @Curt, was Ryan Miller voodoo?

Certainty costs money. I know you're saying there is no certainty with goalies, but that's the case at every position. Even Jack Eichel can have a two-goal season.

There are 16 goalies making $5 million, then Kuemper at $4.5 and Bishop $4.9 million. Of those 18, I'd say I'd say maybe four are guys their teams aren't comfortable with anchoring their creases: Schneider, Jones, Rinne and Quick, and the latter two certainly were at that level when they were 30.

Ullmark has graduated to that level. You aren't going to get his equal this summer and pay less than that.

The alternative is just opening every season not really clear if the guy in your net is going to get it done.

We've been in goalie purgatory since Miller left. I'm really tired of it.

Ullmark is our ticket out.

Edited April 4, 2021 by dudacek

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

With all due respect @Curt, was Ryan Miller voodoo?

Certainty costs money. I know you're saying there is no certainty with goalies, but that's the case at every position. Even Jack Eichel can have a two-goal season.

There are 16 goalies making $5 million, then Kuemper at $4.5 and Bishop $4.9 million. Of those 18, I'd say I'd say maybe four are guys their teams aren't comfortable with anchoring their creases: Schneider, Jones, Rinne and Quick, and the latter two certainly were at that level when they were 30.

Ullmark has graduated to that level. You aren't going to get his equal this summer and pay less than that.

The alternative is just opening every season not really clear if the guy in your net is going to get it done.

We've been in goalie purgatory since Miller left. I'm really tired of it.

Ullmark is our ticket out.

If tonight’s game winning performance as an exclamation point to the overall performance since his return from injury will not convince a fan he is the answer, then nothing will.  I don’t know if 5*5 is enough to keep his curiosity from testing FA. What is he wants to test the market and Boston goes hard after him?  Talk about Soul Crushing. 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

With all due respect @Curt, was Ryan Miller voodoo?

Certainty costs money. I know you're saying there is no certainty with goalies, but that's the case at every position. Even Jack Eichel can have a two-goal season.

There are 16 goalies making $5 million, then Kuemper at $4.5 and Bishop $4.9 million. Of those 18, I'd say I'd say maybe four are guys their teams aren't comfortable with anchoring their creases: Schneider, Jones, Rinne and Quick, and the latter two certainly were at that level when they were 30.

Ullmark has graduated to that level. You aren't going to get his equal this summer and pay less than that.

The alternative is just opening every season not really clear if the guy in your net is going to get it done.

We've been in goalie purgatory since Miller left. I'm really tired of it.

Ullmark is our ticket out.

Ryan Miller was very consistent for a goalie.

I think you are pretty lenient in what you would be comfortable with as anchor in goal.  Anderson?  Murray?  Even Markstrom, Gibson, Price, and Bobrovsky are performing below expectations.

But anyway, I’m not against signing Ullmark, even for ~$5M.  I do recognize the stability that he can bring and the value of that.  I just would like to keep the term down.

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, Curt said:

Ryan Miller was very consistent for a goalie.

I think you are pretty lenient in what you would be comfortable with as anchor in goal.  Anderson?  Murray?  Even Markstrom, Gibson, Price, and Bobrovsky are performing below expectations.

But anyway, I’m not against signing Ullmark, even for ~$5M.  I do recognize the stability that he can bring and the value of that.  I just would like to keep the term down.

I missed Murray. Good catch.

Price and Bob are overpaid, but not at $5 million.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I missed Murray. Good catch.

Price and Bob are overpaid, but not at $5 million.

Yeah, but that’s part of the point, they aren’t making $5M.  They went from being ELITE to average (or below) pretty suddenly.  Goalie performance is unreliable.

[dudacek]

45 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yeah, but that’s part of the point, they aren’t making $5M.  They went from being ELITE to average (or below) pretty suddenly.  Goalie performance is unreliable.

Is it more unreliable than other positions?

Are there more Jeff Skinners and Ryan Johansons in the nets? I don't think there are.

If we sign Linus for 5 years and $5 million and get 1 great, one bad and 3 solid seasons, aren't we getting our money's worth?

Aren't we better off than signing a different Carter Hutton every year hoping one turns into Darcy Kuemper? Then letting that Kuemper go because we don't give goalies term?

So for Jack's $10 million has given us one very good, one great and one bad season.

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Is it more unreliable than other positions?

Are there more Jeff Skinners and Ryan Johansons in the nets? I don't think there are.

If we sign Linus for 5 years and $5 million and get 1 great, one bad and 3 solid seasons, aren't we getting our money's worth?

Aren't we better off than signing a different Carter Hutton every year hoping one turns into Darcy Kuemper? Then letting that Kuemper go because we don't give goalies term?

So for Jack's $10 million has given us one very good, one great and one bad season.

I think there are more goalies that drop off precipitously than other positions, yes.

Could you imagine a McDavid, Crosby, Eichel, Matthews, Tavares, Barkov, Bergeron, suddenly playing like a 40-50 point middle 6 C for a couple years without any real explanation and then playing like an elite C again after that?  Goalies, even elite ones, do stuff like that.

I agree that it’s probably still better than wandering the goalie purgatory, and the scenarios of mostly good years you laid out would be fine.

I just want to express that the risk is greater for goalies.  Voodoo.

[Brawndo]

I would spend the next seven days on a dual plan. 
 

Trying to re-sign Ullmark would be the Top Priority, but if he says I really want to test the UFA Market, the second part of plan would kick in , and that’s finding the best return for him at the deadline. 
 

If Ullmark says I’m not sure What I want to do, it would take a sizable offer to move him by next Monday. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I would spend the next seven days on a dual plan. 
 

Trying to re-sign Ullmark would be the Top Priority, but if he says I really want to test the UFA Market, the second part of plan would kick in , and that’s finding the best return for him at the deadline. 
 

If Ullmark says I’m not sure What I want to do, it would take a sizable offer to move him by next Monday. 

Couldn't agree more.

Except I would have had started these conversations few weeks ago, and either have my answer, or contract negotiations well underway.

[Brawndo]

Just now, dudacek said:

Couldn't agree more.

Except I would have had started these conversations few weeks ago, and either have my answer, or contract negotiations well underway.

This is what scares me the most about not having AGMs, a lot falls on an inexperienced GM. 

[MODO Hockey]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

This is what scares me the most about not having AGMs, a lot falls on an inexperienced GM. 

Im pretty sure Ullmark want to stay. It's not all about money for him, the return must be pretty much a 3 year plan and that he is involved to be the starter. Otherwise Linus will move to a team that believes in him as n1.

[bob_sauve28]

Tampa Bay started some guy in goal named Christopher Gibson and was destroyed by the lowly Red Wings today. Gibson is a journeyman goalie drafted in 2011 with only 15 or so starts in the NHL 

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

This is what scares me the most about not having AGMs, a lot falls on an inexperienced GM. 

Yeah, no GM whisperer at the top either. Navigating your first trade deadline by yourself can be like sailing the Suez Canal in a windstorm.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, MODO Hockey said:

Im pretty sure Ullmark want to stay. It's not all about money for him, the return must be pretty much a 3 year plan and that he is involved to be the starter. Otherwise Linus will move to a team that believes in him as n1.

If that’s what he wants, sign me up for that deal 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

If that’s what he wants, sign me up for that deal 

Yes. Here's 3 years at 4.5 mil, no questions asked. 

[nfreeman]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

With all due respect @Curt, was Ryan Miller voodoo?

Certainty costs money. I know you're saying there is no certainty with goalies, but that's the case at every position. Even Jack Eichel can have a two-goal season.

There are 16 goalies making $5 million, then Kuemper at $4.5 and Bishop $4.9 million. Of those 18, I'd say I'd say maybe four are guys their teams aren't comfortable with anchoring their creases: Schneider, Jones, Rinne and Quick, and the latter two certainly were at that level when they were 30.

Ullmark has graduated to that level. You aren't going to get his equal this summer and pay less than that.

The alternative is just opening every season not really clear if the guy in your net is going to get it done.

We've been in goalie purgatory since Miller left. I'm really tired of it.

Ullmark is our ticket out.

Respectfully, it's not the annual salary, it's the term that I and I believe others are concerned about.  I have plenty of doubts about Linus, but I'd give him $5MM x 2 years tomorrow if he'd accept it.

If it takes a 5-year deal to get him to keep bailing water from the Titanic in hopes that KA and whoever he brings in can fix the gaping holes in the hull -- that's an entirely different story.  I don't think I can get there.

I don't think anyone will offer him a 4- or 5-year deal.  He hasn't done enough in the NHL, and there is plenty of Sabres stink on him.  But someone very likely could offer him a 2-year deal, and he might have seen enough of the poopshow here to leave unless the Sabres' offer is much better than his alternatives.

 

4 hours ago, MODO Hockey said:

Im pretty sure Ullmark want to stay. It's not all about money for him, the return must be pretty much a 3 year plan and that he is involved to be the starter. Otherwise Linus will move to a team that believes in him as n1.

Good info.  I hope you're right.  As I mentioned I have my doubts about him but I'd probably, like others here, be OK with a 3-year deal.

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Respectfully, it's not the annual salary, it's the term that I and I believe others are concerned about.  I have plenty of doubts about Linus, but I'd give him $5MM x 2 years tomorrow if he'd accept it.

If it takes a 5-year deal to get him to keep bailing water from the Titanic in hopes that KA and whoever he brings in can fix the gaping holes in the hull -- that's an entirely different story.  I don't think I can get there.

I don't think anyone will offer him a 4- or 5-year deal.  He hasn't done enough in the NHL, and there is plenty of Sabres stink on him.  But someone very likely could offer him a 2-year deal, and he might have seen enough of the poopshow here to leave unless the Sabres' offer is much better than his alternatives.

 

Good info.  I hope you're right.  As I mentioned I have my doubts about him but I'd probably, like others here, be OK with a 3-year deal.

How would you replace him?

Edited April 5, 2021 by dudacek

[bob_sauve28]

31 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Respectfully, it's not the annual salary, it's the term that I and I believe others are concerned about.  I have plenty of doubts about Linus, but I'd give him $5MM x 2 years tomorrow if he'd accept it.

If it takes a 5-year deal to get him to keep bailing water from the Titanic in hopes that KA and whoever he brings in can fix the gaping holes in the hull -- that's an entirely different story.  I don't think I can get there.

I don't think anyone will offer him a 4- or 5-year deal.  He hasn't done enough in the NHL, and there is plenty of Sabres stink on him.  But someone very likely could offer him a 2-year deal, and he might have seen enough of the poopshow here to leave unless the Sabres' offer is much better than his alternatives.

 

Good info.  I hope you're right.  As I mentioned I have my doubts about him but I'd probably, like others here, be OK with a 3-year deal.

I don’t know about what others teams will offer him. That Colorado would actually trade for JJ makes me wonder if it’s going to be a sellers market for goalies this year. Maybe there is a good reason KA couldn’t find of decent backup before this season. Linus at 28 could easily get a five year offer. And we are screwed if he walks. 

[nfreeman]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How would you replace him?

Fair question. 

There is a lot of turnover league-wide at goalie every year, both in trade and via FA.

UFAs this summer include Grubauer, Driedger from FLA (who is #2 in the NHL in SV% among goalies with more than 15 starts), Bernier, Raanta, Freddy Andersen, Tuuka Rask and Mike Smith.  Linus has a better SV% than many of those, but in a small sample size, and IMHO it's hard to be confident that Linus will be better than any of those guys next year.

Looking at current SV% leaders (minimum 15 games), the following goalies have changed teams recently:

2 - Driedger

3 - Grubauer

5 - Talbot

8 - Fleury (didn't change teams but has been available)

13 - Mike Smith

14 - Varlamov

15 - Lankinen

There are good goalies to be had every year (which makes the failure to upgrade from Hutton for the past 2 offseasons, when his 1st year made it crystal clear that he wasn't good enough, all the more frustrating).  You make a good case for keeping Linus, but if it takes a 5-year deal to do so, I'm out and will hope to be proven wrong.

 

[Second Line Center]

On 3/29/2021 at 5:06 PM, LGR4GM said:

This ties Ullmark for 16th in the NHL for sv%

I don't know about gsar (goals saved above replacement) but if someone has a place for that it would be cool. 

 

Sorry if I missed if posted...

They are now 7-5-3 when Ullmark starts.  

1-18-3 in the others.   

That's your stat of the year imo.  

 

I want him and anyone other then Hutton to compete for the job and let it sort out knowing Ullmark is reliable and potentially beginning to put it all together.  

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Fair question. 

There is a lot of turnover league-wide at goalie every year, both in trade and via FA.

UFAs this summer include Grubauer, Driedger from FLA (who is #2 in the NHL in SV% among goalies with more than 15 starts), Bernier, Raanta, Freddy Andersen, Tuuka Rask and Mike Smith.  Linus has a better SV% than many of those, but in a small sample size, and IMHO it's hard to be confident that Linus will be better than any of those guys next year.

Looking at current SV% leaders (minimum 15 games), the following goalies have changed teams recently:

2 - Driedger

3 - Grubauer

5 - Talbot

8 - Fleury (didn't change teams but has been available)

13 - Mike Smith

14 - Varlamov

15 - Lankinen

There are good goalies to be had every year (which makes the failure to upgrade from Hutton for the past 2 offseasons, when his 1st year made it crystal clear that he wasn't good enough, all the more frustrating).  You make a good case for keeping Linus, but if it takes a 5-year deal to do so, I'm out and will hope to be proven wrong.

 

• Driedger: 15 NHL games prior to this year
• Grubauer: better stats than Linus, had similar stats to Linus at a similar age when he was acquired for a 2nd. Going to make good coin this summer
• Talbot: similar stats to Linus, backup last year, SP .908 and .893 the two previous years
• Fleury: similar stats to Linus, $7 million cap hit
• Smith: similar stats to Linus, 37 years old, a pure stopgap who had terrible numbers the previous two seasons, losing the number spot on two different teams
• Varlamov: similar stats to Linus, signed to 4 years @ $5 million per, cost a 1st and 2nd to acquire
• Lankinen: Worse stats than Linus, the 27 NHL games he played this year are the 2nd most he has ever played as a pro. Going into the season with him as your #1 would be like us handing the reins to JJ. This board would have melted down

 

Linus has one peer on that list as a developmental prospect who showed steady progress and now has arrived: Grubauer, and Grubauer is going to get paid this summer.

Rask, Fleury and Varly are/were expensive acquisitions, Bernier, Smith and Talbot are veteran stopgaps enjoying good rebound years after three straight down years, Anderson is those guys two years ago. Lankinen and Driedger are out-of-nowhere keepers.

Linus has gotten better every single year. Literally. He arrived as an NHL starter last year and as a stud this year.

Linus Ullmark has allowed more than three goals just once all year — the 4-3 OT loss to Philly. His last "bad" game was Jan. 9, 2020, when he allowed 4 in 30 shots against the Blues. He consistently gives us a chance to win. He's probably the best shootout goalie in hockey.

There isn't a Sabre who does his job better. He's focused, consistent, calm, competitive and talented. He's also young enough that he will be good for a while.

He is actually what you dream happens when you draft a goalie in the late rounds and patiently develop him.

Chucking that away to sign Freddie Andersen to a one-year cross-your-fingers-he-rebounds deal is pound-foolish, because all that does is mean you are paying Andersen big money or looking for his replacement a year from now while Linus gives some other team a fighting chance for the next five years.

Bet on your guy, reward him for rewarding you.

Edited April 5, 2021 by dudacek

[SwampD]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

• Driedger: 15 NHL games prior to this year
• Grubauer: better stats than Linus had similar stats to Linus at a similar age when he was acquired for a 2nd. Going to make good coin this summer
• Talbot: similar stats to Linus, backup last year, SP .908 and .893 the two previous years
• Fleury: similar stats to Linus, $7 million cap hit
• Smith: similar stats to Linus, 37 years old, a pure stopgap who had terrible numbers the previous two seasons, losing the number spot on two different teams
• Varlamov: similar stats to Linus, signed to 4 years @ $5 million per, cost a 1st and 2nd to acquire
• Lankinen: Worse stats than Linus, the 27 NHL games he played this year are the 2nd most he has ever played as a pro. Going into the season with him as your #1 would be like us handing the reins to JJ. This board would have melted down

 

Linus has one peer on that list as a developmental prospect who showed steady progress and now has arrived: Grubauer, and Grubauer is going to get paid this summer.

Rask, Fleury and Varly are/were expensive acquisitions, Bernier, Smith and Talbot are veteran stopgaps enjoying good rebound years after three straight down years, Anderson is those guys two years ago. Lankinen and Driedger are out-of-nowhere keepers.

Linus has gotten better every single year. Literally. He arrived as an NHL starter last year and as a stud this year.

Linus Ullmark has allowed more than three goals just once all year — the 4-3 OT loss to Philly. His last "bad" game was Jan. 9, 2020, when he allowed 4 in 30 shots against the Blues. He consistently gives us a chance to win. He's probably the best shootout goalie in hockey.

There isn't a Sabre who does his job better. He's focused, consistent, calm, competitive and talented. He's also young enough that he will be good for a while.

He is actually what you dream happens when you draft a goalie in the late rounds and patiently develop him.

Chucking that away to sign Freddie Andersen to a one-year cross-your-fingers-he-rebounds deal is pound-foolish, because all that does is mean you are paying Andersen big money or looking for his replacement a year from now while Linus gives some other team a fighting chance for the next five years.

Bet on your guy, reward him for rewarding you.

You really like Ullmark.

You always have some of the most staid hockey opinions on this board.

The fact that you keep coming back to this tells me you really think we have something in Ullmark.

I'm smart enough to defer to you.

[Flashsabre]

I think 5x5 is the sweet spot. Goalies usually hit there stride at 26-27, where maturity and mental consistency meet. He is a difference maker for Buffalo. The injuries are a concern but you have to have a good goalie to go anywhere in this league. Upgrade to a capable backup and this team will be much much better.