Trading Linus Ullmark

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This ties Ullmark for 16th in the NHL for sv%

I don't know about gsar (goals saved above replacement) but if someone has a place for that it would be cool. 

 

I'm not sure about the fancy stats numbers, but I think what's been underplayed in this disaster is that Linus took another step this year.

He's now a legitimate NHL starter, IMO. He's had a long, steady development and it would be a shame to lose him just when he's finally arrived. Sign him to a four-year, $20 million deal while UPL goes from AHL stud to NHL starter and goalie purgatory is over.

I can't justify not trading him though if he isn't coming back, and I wouldn't blame him if he decided not to.

@darksabre is right though, I think he could be the type who might be convinced to stay.

Edited March 29, 2021 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Linus Ulmark is not going to spoil the Sabres lottery position, not 12 points back with two dozen games remaining.

He might save the psyches of quite a few fragile skaters, and preserve a few potential paying customers.

The NHL season is 56 games and Buffalo is at exactly half. 23 games and 16 points. If they got 60% of the remaining points, that would be 32 +16  48 =  total points. That would mean that the teams just ahead us would need to get less than 20 points in there remaining 20 games for us to catch them and I think a 60% point rate is way too high for the Sabres. 

Long winded way of saying you're right. 

Edited March 29, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Scottysabres]

You re-sign him, you do not let him see FA. He's a well developed netminder who is now ready to take the reigns. It would be a complete catastrophe to let him get to FA at this point given the goalie market.

[sabresouth]

I don't mind keeping Ulmark as a good #2. We really need a good #1 if by ownerships own words the goal is to win the cup. I just don't think Ulmark is good enough to get us the cup.

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, sabresouth said:

I don't mind keeping Ulmark as a good #2. We really need a good #1 if by ownerships own words the goal is to win the cup. I just don't think Ulmark is good enough to get us the cup.

Some goalies reached peak at 23, some at 25 and some at 27 (Linus current age). He's a very good goalie just now reaching his career apex play wise, and there is further room for upward play. You don't let him go, even if you go after another as the #1.

[Randall Flagg]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The NHL season is 56 games and Buffalo is at exactly half. 23 games and 16 points. If they got 60% of the remaining points, that would be 32 +16  48 =  total points. That would mean that the teams just ahead us would need to get less than 20 points in there remaining 20 games for us to catch them and I think a 60% point rate is way too high for the Sabres. 

Long winded way of saying you're right. 

Not following your math there 

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Not following your math there 

I estimated. Overestimated now that I look

[LGR4GM]

27.6 is 60% of 46 points remaining... I think but now I doubt my math ability

44-45 points is the max points I think we can get overall. 

[Crusader1969]

I’d rather try to resign him now than get a draft pick.   
Is there a playoff team that needs goaltending?  

[Zamboni]

I don’t think Ullmark today, right now, is #1 status on almost every NHL team. He’s a very capable #2 on a deeper team.

I’d want a goalie of better talent/ability to be considered the #1. Ullmark isn’t that. 
 

However if we had a better coached team and a couple Dman upgrades, Ullmark all of a sudden could look much better in net. But, that’s a big IF and wishful thinking.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Zamboni said:

I don’t think Ullmark today, right now, is #1 status on almost every NHL team. He’s a very capable #2 on a deeper team.

I’d want a goalie of better talent/ability to be considered the #1. Ullmark isn’t that. 
 

However if we had a better coached team and a couple Dman upgrades, Ullmark all of a sudden could look much better in net. But, that’s a big IF and wishful thinking.

He ranks 16th in sv% currently in the entire league. 

[Randall Flagg]

39 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

27.6 is 60% of 46 points remaining... I think but now I doubt my math ability

44-45 points is the max points I think we can get overall. 

I think the original issue was the (understandable) mistake that 23 is half of 56. But, I might just be reading that sentence wrong. 

Your point is well taken though!

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I don’t think Ullmark today, right now, is #1 status on almost every NHL team. He’s a very capable #2 on a deeper team.

I’d want a goalie of better talent/ability to be considered the #1. Ullmark isn’t that. 
 

Yeah, this was exactly my point upthread, and where I disagree with what is probably the popular take.

Linus took a step last year towards erasing that perception last year, and in my opinion another one that eliminated it this year

The Ullmark we have seen put up a .918 Sp and 2.49 GAA on this team is very clearly a starter on at least half the NHL teams and the 10-15 goalies who might be better aren't coming to Buffalo next year.

NHL goalies emerge right around where Linus is. He is where Jacob Markstrom or Darcy Kuemper were two years ago.

Let him go and he will light it up for his next team.

He is rare Buffalo development success story in the making and I am scared we are too dumb to see it.

Edited March 29, 2021 by dudacek

[Zamboni]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yeah, this was exactly my point upthread, and where I disagree with what is probably the popular take.

Linus took a step last year towards erasing that perception last year, and in my opinion another one that eliminated it this year

The Ullmark we have seen put up a .918 Sp and 2.49 GAA on this team is very clearly a starter on at least half the NHL teams and the 10-15 goalies who might be better aren't coming to Buffalo next year.

NHL goalies emerge right around where Linus is. He is where Jacob Markstrom or Darcy Kuemper were two years ago.

Let him go and he will light it up for his next team.

He is rare Buffalo development success story in the making and I am scared we are too dumb to see it.

Yea I understand all that. And he makes an intriguing case for himself. 
 

I have my views on the man. I hope he improves. I just have this nagging feeling that if he had the lions share (55-60 games) of an 82 game season, he wouldn’t improve. He would get worse. But like so many things on a team sport, a lot of factors go into him being meh, good, or great.
Just my O. 

[msw2112]

I think you try to re-sign Ullmark.  He's one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal year.  The team has invested in drafting and developing him and he's finally coming into has own as a viable, quality NHL starter.  If he continues to improve, he could get to the next level (all-star), but if he has reached his peak, he's a still good player.  If UPL or Portillo or someone else emerges as a star down the road, you've got a very good backup or a trade asset in Ullmark then.  I would agree that it is unlikely that any FA goalie better than Ullmark is going to sign with the Sabres and none of the young goalies in the pipeline are ready now and unlikely any will be ready next year.

As to some of the comments about the team in general in this thread, it's highly unlikely the Sabres will finish anywhere other than in last place this year.  Thus, it's not mutually exclusive for the team to win a few games with some of the younger guys developing some confidence for next year and retaining the best possible draft position.

I agree that the Sabres are a form of entertainment, but I am going to spend my limited entertainment time and money doing something else the rest of this season, so I don't care that much how they do other than that anything that will benefit them next year and beyond.

[DarthEbriate]

Help us, Linus-Ullmark, you're our only hope!

If he wants to be here, then yes re-sign Ullmark to a mid-to-low starter salary for 3-4 years. In that $3.9-4.4M range. The hits on him on the lower side are the obvious: injury history and no playoff experience. But he's a solid 1B if not elite. And he's awesome in shootouts. We can do much, much worse. Heck, we've been doing much, much worse. And half the league's teams would probably be better with him in their crease.

He may not be the leader Miller was, or the superstar Hasek was, but he's capable of being a .920 guy with a good defense and definitely capable of playing hot for a couple weeks needed to steal a playoff series.

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

I'm not sure about the fancy stats numbers, but I think what's been underplayed in this disaster is that Linus took another step this year.

He's now a legitimate NHL starter, IMO. He's had a long, steady development and it would be a shame to lose him just when he's finally arrived. Sign him to a four-year, $20 million deal while UPL goes from AHL stud to NHL starter and goalie purgatory is over.

I can't justify not trading him though if he isn't coming back, and I wouldn't blame him if he decided not to.

@darksabre is right though, I think he could be the type who might be convinced to stay.

Misplaced faith in UPL at this point I’d say but agree totally on Ullmark. He’s got the ability to be 1 *if* we have a good backup 

[Curt]

4 hours ago, SDS said:

If you aren’t upgrading him then you have to keep him right? The idea can’t be to go into next year with worse goaltending.

You don’t HAVE to keep him.  It’s entirely possible that the Sabres CAN’T keep him without objectively overpaying.  He is a UFA.  He might make the decision for them.

[Curt]

I think the Sabres need to try to resign him.  Have the honest conversation with him.  If he wants to go UFA, then move him.

Personally, I really hope he is back next year.

[bob_sauve28]

This is a great thread topic and the polls were well done 👍 

[bob_sauve28]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Trade him for whatever we can get. 

I like Linus but not enough to say he's definitely the #1 next year.  I'd be fine bringing him back along with someone like MAF or other legit NHL goalie and letting them fight it out for the top job.  I definitely don't want to give him an extension until Karmanos and hopefully Rutherford are here to opine.

It will probably make sense to wait until the deadline so he can prove he's healthy with a few starts.

I’d offer him $6 mill for 6 years. He’s the real deal. 

[pi2000]

This trend of developing goalies then trading them needs to stop.

He's gotten better every year, is competitive, and has all the qualities you want in a #1.   

Sign him.

[Curt]

18 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I’d offer him $6 mill for 6 years. He’s the real deal. 

 

Have you guys looked at how the big goalie contracts around the league turn out?

There are currently 16 goalies with cap hits of $5M or greater.

-1 of them is out of the league.

-7 have a SV% of 0.900 or less

-4 have a SV% between 0.900 and 0.910

-4 have a SV% over 0.910

League average SV% is 0.904.  So only half of them are even near average, and only 4 of them are clearly above.  It just rarely turns out well.

 

12 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

This trend of developing goalies then trading them needs to stop.

He's gotten better every year, is competitive, and has all the qualities you want in a #1.   

Sign him.

By trend, do you mean Jonas Johansson?

Edited March 30, 2021 by Curt

[darksabre]

32 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I’d offer him $6 mill for 6 years. He’s the real deal. 

Lol that's insane

[nfreeman]

28 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

This trend of developing goalies then trading them needs to stop.

He's gotten better every year, is competitive, and has all the qualities you want in a #1.   

Sign him.

 

26 minutes ago, Curt said:

By trend, do you mean Jonas Johansson?

Well, pi can certainly speak for himself, but he might've been thinking of Lehner too, which is fair IMHO even if they didn't trade him.