Fixing the Defense - Maybe not as easy as you think

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Why is it hopes and dreams to project Casey, but it's not to project Will?

Right now, Casey is a good minor league centre showing signs that he could be a useful 3rd line winger. Will is a good minor league defenceman showing signs that he could be a useful 3rd pairing defenceman.

Casey is younger and has a stronger pedigree. That's seems relevant to GA and not to you and that's fine.

I'm more interested in why you think Borgen is clearly worth more to the organization than Mittelstadt.

I'm confused why Borgen gets this 3rd pairing label. 

I have said why, I think Borgen is a natural fit to pair with Dahlin and I hope he gets healthy so we can test that theory. 

Casey has had several years of NHL action to show us something. We have a really good understanding of what he brings. Borgen showed what he could do in the AHL and that's why we project him in the NHL. We don't have 129 NHL games to look at like we do with Mitts. 

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Believe it or not asset management is a thing.

It is Adams job to come out of the expansion draft with the best collection of assets possible, then parlay those assets into the best team possible.

If you can trade Risto right now for a 2nd-rounder or a back-up goalie, why give him away for nothing in the expansion draft? And if you can trade him for that now, you can probably protect him and trade him for that any time between now and the deadline (assuming he isn't re-signing).

Also, it is pretty hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Sabres have four defencemen better than Risto to start next year. If that's the case, it also makes an argument for protecting him.

You also have to process Borgen through the same window.

So manage the assets in such a way that the idea you might be out of the running by the deadline ie a bottom feeder next season isn’t a consideration. That isn’t how good teams actually operate. If you start making decisions now that hedge for reasons like that it’s a self fulfilling prophecy. 

Believe it or not, if we are selling off at next year’s deadline we’ve already sold off Jack this summer and we’re in a full scale rebuild, or we kept him and are about to have to trade him for potentially even less unless they get it done by the 2022 draft. 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

So manage the assets in such a way that the idea you might be out of the running by the deadline ie a bottom feeder next season isn’t a consideration. That isn’t how good teams actually operate. If you start making decisions now that hedge for reasons like that it’s a self fulfilling prophecy. 

Believe it or not, if we are selling off at next year’d deadline we’ve already sold off Jack this summer and we’re in a full scale rebuild, or we kept him and are about to have to trade him for potentially even less unless they get it done by the 2020 draft. 

I'm confused by what you mean here. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm confused why Borgen gets this 3rd pairing label. 

I have said why, I think Borgen is a natural fit to pair with Dahlin and I hope he gets healthy so we can test that theory. 

Casey has had several years of NHL action to show us something. We have a really good understanding of what he brings. Borgen showed what he could do in the AHL and that's why we project him in the NHL. We don't have 129 NHL games to look at like we do with Mitts. 

So, hopes and dreams? 😜

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

So, hopes and dreams? 😜

Not really. We know what Borgen brings at the AHL level correct? We saw him bring a similar game in his limited NHL time. I get what you are going for but it isn't the same thing. I am hope and dreaming Borgen to be a solid shutdown defender in the vain of McCabe versus projecting Mitts to suddenly produce 4-5x his point output to date. 

I like Borgen better than Mitts. It really is that simple. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So manage the assets in such a way that the idea you might be out of the running by the deadline ie a bottom feeder next season isn’t a consideration. That isn’t how good teams actually operate. If you start making decisions now that hedge for reasons like that it’s a self fulfilling prophecy. 

Believe it or not, if we are selling off at next year’d deadline we’ve already sold off Jack this summer and we’re in a full scale rebuild, or we kept him and are about to have to trade him for potentially even less unless they get it done by the 2020 draft. 

Sorry, my poor choice of words has triggered one of your pet peeves. I was not referring to the likelihood of us being sellers, I was referring to the need to trade Risto before he walks to UFA for nothing.

Just pretend "at the deadline" wasn't in my original post and carry on.

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm confused by what you mean here. 

I mean that I have zero interest in the merits of what Risto might “fetch at next year’s deadline.” Brawndo had it right the first time. It’s logically bankrupt to even debate the merits of that kind of asset management when, if we are in the position where that situation actually arises, the GM will already have been proven to be incapable of proper asset management. It just doesn’t matter. 

Jack is going to request out after next season if we are bad. Common thought is if we deal him it might make sense to do so this offseason to maximize return. 

So if we are dealing Risto at the deadline next year, we are out of it. And if that “out of it” team has Jack on it, we are about to lose Jack.

And if we’ve already dealt Jack, we’re already up shitz creek, and that’s why we are sellers. 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Thorny said:

I mean that I have zero interest in the merits of what Risto might “fetch at next year’s deadline.” Brawndo had it right the first time. It’s logically bankrupt to even debate the merits of that kind of asset management when, if we are in the position where that’s situation actually arises, the GM will already have been proven to be incapable of proper assets management. It just doesn’t matter. 

Jack is going to request out after next season if we are bad. Common thought is if we deal him it might make sense to do so this offseason to maximize return. 

So if we are dealing Risto at the deadline next year, we are out of it. And if that “out of it” team has Jack on it, we are about to lose Jack. If we’ve already dealt Jack, we’re already up shitz creek. 

Personally, I think we need to decide on June 1 if we are rebuilding or staying the course. I think at this point without something drastic they will burn this thing down and build around Cozens, Dahlin, and the 2021 first rounder (Beniers). 

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Personally, I think we need to decide on June 1 if we are rebuilding or staying the course. I think at this point without something drastic they will burn this thing down and build around Cozens, Dahlin, and the 2021 first rounder (Beniers). 

If that’s the case and we are doing a full scale rebuild, yes, Risto’s 2022 deadline value is a high priority conversation. 😕

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sorry, my poor choice of words has triggered one of your pet peeves. I was not referring to the likelihood of us being sellers, I was referring to the need to trade Risto before he walks to UFA for nothing.

Just pretend "at the deadline" wasn't in my original post and carry on.

But then we should be keeping him as our “own rental”, no? I wouldn’t deal him at the deadline if we were in the hunt. 

But that’s besides the point I guess if that’s not where you wanna steer it I’m taking it 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Thorny

[inkman]

15 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

I totally disagree with letting a 20-21 year old, first round #8 pick, who appears to  be starting to find himself as an NHL player to keep a marginal  24 year old defensive defenseman. Glad some of you guys aren't making these decisions for my team, and with good reason.

The problem is the Sabres created such a dearth of players like Will Borgen, that when we have only one player on the roster that comes close to doing the stuff he does, that player gets elevated several notches above where they should be.  That being said, if they let him go, I may root for Seattle or wherever he ends up.  He’s the only Sabre I’ve liked since Mike Peca. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But then we should be keeping him as our “own rental”, no? I wouldn’t deal him at the deadline if we were in the hunt. 

But that’s besides the point I guess if that’s not where you wanna steer it I’m taking it 

No it actually fits — Risto's potential value to a Buffalo playoff push in the 2022 stretch drive should also be a factor in your decision-making.

I think a Risto/Borgen argument ultimately comes down to which one you value more, I just think that "value" is more nuanced than which player you like more right now, and one of those nuances is market value.

It's not just "would you rather Borgen on your roster next season and next summer, or Risto next season only?"

It's "would you rather Borgen on your roster next season and next summer, or Risto and/or the proceeds of a Risto trade?"

And you really don't know the answer to that without knowing the potential haul of a Risto trade.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

No it actually fits — Risto's potential value to a Buffalo playoff push in the 2022 stretch drive should also be a factor in your decision-making.

I think a Risto/Borgen argument ultimately comes down to which one you value more, I just think that "value" is more nuanced than which player you like more right now, and one of those nuances is market value.

It's not just "would you rather Borgen on your roster next season and next summer, or Risto next season only?"

It's "would you rather Borgen on your roster next season and next summer, or Risto and/or the proceeds of a Risto trade?"

And you really don't know the answer to that without knowing the potential haul of a Risto trade.

The simplest way to protect Borgen, which I don't have a problem with, is to either trade Jokiharju for an exempt forward or D, or pay off Seattle to take someone else.

[Marvin]

Why is trading Ristolainen less acceptable than Reinhart or Eichel?  More posters will accept the expected minimal return for Eichel and a negligible return on Reinhart but don't even consider trading Ristolainen.

IMHO, it is blindingly obvious that if you want to shake up the rotten core and/or want to keep Borgen, then you move Ristolainen.  I have seen exactly one poster consider this.  (Yes, if T&KP nix trading Risto in a hockey trade, then he deserves getting roasted even more.)  It seems as if, in all the negativity, people forgot that entertaining stupidity is worse than having actual good players.  Trade Risto for the next Richard Smehlik or, even better, Bill Hajt and I will be a happy boy.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Marvin, Sabres Fan

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Why is trading Ristolainen less acceptable than Reinhart or Eichel?  More posters will accept the expected minimal return for Eichel and a negligible return on Reinhart but don't even consider trading Ristolainen.

IMHO, it is blindingly obvious that if you want to shake up the rotten core and/or want to keep Borgen, then you move Ristolainen.  I have seen exactly one poster consider this.  (Yes, if T&KP nix trading Risto in a hockey trade, then he deserves getting roasted even more.)  It seems as if, in all the negativity, people forgot that entertaining stupidity is worse than having actual good players.  Trade Risto for the next Richard Smehlik or, even better, Bill Hajt and I will be a happy boy.

I guess you're right it hasn't had much direct conversation lately, but there are a number of people who have been advocating a Risto trade for years. I don't think they've changed their minds, they've just become tired of talking about it.

I like Risto more than some, but I think it's fait accompli that he gets moved. I think there's a better chance of Taylor Hall scoring a hat-trick tonight than there is of Risto re-signing in Buffalo. And it that's the case, you have to trade him. Even if he was willing to re-sign, I think the Sabres have to move on.

I think Adams and Sam may reach a similar conclusion, although I hope that's not the case.

[dudacek]

I just want to point out an issue with "trade a D-man so you don't lose him for nothing" in the expansion draft.

You enter the expansion draft with this as your D-core:

• Dahlin Risto
• Bryson Jokiharju
• Miller Borgen

You expose Miller and Risto and lose Risto and are left with this:

• Dahlin Borgen
• Bryson Jokiharju
• Miller

You trade Risto and expose Miller and Risto and lose Miller and are left with this:

• Dahlin Borgen
• Bryson Jokiharju

Yes, you've got an extra pick, or an extra forward for Risto, but you have defence corps consisting of four players, with what, 400 NHL games combined?

That's a serious hole.

Edited March 24, 2021 by dudacek

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I guess you're right it hasn't had much direct conversation lately, but there are a number of people who have been advocating a Risto trade for years. I don't think they've changed their minds, they've just become tired of talking about it.

I like Risto more than some, but I think it's fait accompli that he gets moved. I think there's a better chance of Taylor Hall scoring a hat-trick tonight than there is of Risto re-signing in Buffalo. And it that's the case, you have to trade him. Even if he was willing to re-sign, I think the Sabres have to move on.

I think Adams and Sam may reach a similar conclusion, although I hope that's not the case.

Yup, I’m just tired of talking about.  Plus there was evidence that his trade value around the league just wasn’t there.

It might just be me, but I have a feeling deep down that by the start of the 2022-23 season Risto, Reinhart, and Eichel will all be gone.

[inkman]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I just want to point out an issue with "trade a D-man so you don't lose him for nothing" in the expansion draft.

You enter the expansion draft with this as your D-core:

• Dahlin Risto
• Bryson Jokiharju
• Miller Borgen

You expose Miller and Risto and lose Risto and are left with this:

• Dahlin Borgen
• Bryson Jokiharju
• Miller

You trade Risto and expose Miller and Risto and lose Miller and are left with this:

• Dahlin Borgen
• Bryson Jokiharju

Yes, you've got an extra pick, or an extra forward for Risto, but you have defence corps consisting of four players, with what, 400 NHL games combined?

That's a serious hole.

Samuelsson and Johnson are on the way 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, inkman said:

Samuelsson and Johnson are on the way 

They are both LD, and Samuelsson probably needs another year, Johnson probably needs two.  They would need to acquire a couple decent vets if they were left with that young 4.  That’s if it isn’t a big rebuild scenario.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What a difference to the Pens and Letang’s performance when Dumoulin returned for injury.  Maybe we need to find a partner for Dahlin.

As to Borgen being that guy, I don’t think he skates well enough.  However, it is certainly worth trying when Borgen gets back from injury.  We need to try everything.  

 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What a difference to the Pens and Letang’s performance when Dumoulin returned for injury.  Maybe we need to find a partner for Dahlin.

As to Borgen being that guy, I don’t think he skates well enough.  However, it is certainly worth trying when Borgen gets back from injury.  We need to try everything.  

 

Interesting. I've always thought what stood out about Borgen was how much better a skater he is than players who play a similar style.

Edited March 25, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Interesting. I've always thought stood out about Borgen was home much better a skater he is than players who play a similar style.

I’ve read reports that agree with you.  However If his skating was good enough he’d have already been in the NHL for more then 8 games.  He has been the shutdown guy in the AHL for the two prior seasons.  That alone should have warranted more then just a cup of coffee in the NHL to a defensively challenged team like ours, but it didn’t.  There is something wrong with his game that is holding him back.  The only thing I can think of for a guy who is physical, positionally sound, and strong in his own zone, is his skating.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve read reports that agree with you.  However If his skating was good enough he’d have already been in the NHL for more then 8 games.  He has been the shutdown guy in the AHL for the two prior seasons.  That alone should have warranted more then just a cup of coffee in the NHL to a defensively challenged team like ours, but it didn’t.  There is something wrong with his game that is holding him back.  The only thing I can think of for a guy who is physical, positionally sound, and strong in his own zone, is his skating.

We had 4 NHL RHD last year, and a dumb coach and a dumb GM. Aside from that, there is nothing alarming about Borgen's development path/curve, and these are absolutely insane stretches to make 

[dudacek]

I'm not going to make any judgement on Borgen based on whether Jason Botterill thought he should have been in the NHL or not last year.

[Thorner]

19 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Why is trading Ristolainen less acceptable than Reinhart or Eichel?  More posters will accept the expected minimal return for Eichel and a negligible return on Reinhart but don't even consider trading Ristolainen.

IMHO, it is blindingly obvious that if you want to shake up the rotten core and/or want to keep Borgen, then you move Ristolainen.  I have seen exactly one poster consider this.  (Yes, if T&KP nix trading Risto in a hockey trade, then he deserves getting roasted even more.)  It seems as if, in all the negativity, people forgot that entertaining stupidity is worse than having actual good players.  Trade Risto for the next Richard Smehlik or, even better, Bill Hajt and I will be a happy boy.

It's easier to attribute a "magical aura" around the idea of trading Eichel, that somehow due to his place within the franchise he'll "take with him" the bad mojo when he goes. As if he's a cause rather than a symptom. 

Trading Eichel won't fix the culture if the things that caused the bad culture are still there. If Adams is capable of building a team without Eichel, if he is somehow immune to whatever is it is that has weighted down the other GMs, then he is capable of building one WITH Eichel, too.