Don Granato Interim Coach for Sabres/Ellis and Girardi to the Bench. Steve Smith Fired

[LGR4GM]

Basically the stats tell me 2 things. That Granato has them getting to HD spots more often while also keeping those HD chances against down and that Ullmark is a major reason for our resurgence in the last few games. 

[JoeSchmoe]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Krueger, 5v5 numbers, 28 games

235 hdcf = 48.55 HDCF%

48.05 xGF 53.25 xGA = 47.43 xGF%

90.23 sv%

 

Granato, 5v5 numbers, 10 games

83 hdcf = 51.23 HDCF%

15.82 xGF 18.03 xGA = 46.27 xGF%

93.62 sv%

Are there other numbers ppl want?

The XGF% is lower under Granato than Krueger?!?! 

We couldn't get the puck to the slot under Krueger, nor did the team actually go there. 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

 

Definitely looks a lot more impressive.  I think he's let his players play as well.  Looking at Mittelstadt, Skinner, Montour and Dahlin in particular, and you see them having less stress on their play style.  If you could explain HDCF for me, I don't know that stat type.

High danger corsi for. 

Basically there are areas of the ice that are considering the high danger areas, most places it looks like a diamond almost covering the slot and in close to the net. It is the area of the ice where goals come from the most so it is consider the most dangerous area to shoot from. 

Personally I use this but idk exactly what Nat Stat is using. Ignore the percentages in the one with a red zone, that was specifically for Nashville I think. 

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

The XGF% is lower under Granato than Krueger?!?! 

We couldn't get the puck to the slot under Krueger, nor did the team actually go there. 

That's why the HDCF is higher. Pucks to the slot. 

Edited April 7, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Here we go. High Danger Area:

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Krueger, 5v5 numbers, 28 games

235 hdcf = 48.55 HDCF%

48.05 xGF 53.25 xGA = 47.43 xGF%

90.23 sv%

 

Granato, 5v5 numbers, 10 games

83 hdcf = 51.23 HDCF%

15.82 xGF 18.03 xGA = 46.27 xGF%

93.62 sv%

Are there other numbers ppl want?

Actually we are generating the same number of HD chances a game. Again, we don't have the pre puck movement in that stat and I think that is the important part for the Sabres. They are moving more and that creates chaos so you aren't hitting the HD area with a defender on top of you. Also we are currently getting more HD chances than we are giving up which is good. 

Edited April 7, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Rasmus_]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually we are generating the same number of HD chances a game. Again, we don't have the pre puck movement in that stat and I think that is the important part for the Sabres. They are moving more and that creates chaos so you aren't hitting the HD area with a defender on top of you. Also we are currently getting more HD chances than we are giving up which is good. 

Thanks @LGR4GM  Props for the explanation.

Edited April 7, 2021 by TheCerebral1

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

Thanks @LGR4GM  Props for the explanation.

Welcome, just keep in mind with HDCF it just records the shot and not the pre shot movement which analytics is rapidly trying to understand and track because ti is important. 

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

 

Definitely looks a lot more impressive.  I think he's let his players play as well.  Looking at Mittelstadt, Skinner, Montour and Dahlin in particular, and you see them having less stress on their play style.  If you could explain HDCF for me, I don't know that stat type.

Other than an initial blip of flash when Ralph was first fired, I think Skinner has been notably the same non-productive player he has been the past two years.

1G 1A in the 10 games since Ralph was sent packing, and his ice time is dwindling. Less than 11 minutes last night, even down a forward.

[Curt]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Basically the stats tell me 2 things. That Granato has them getting to HD spots more often while also keeping those HD chances against down and that Ullmark is a major reason for our resurgence in the last few games. 

This is true regarding the HDC%, but they haven’t played good teams.  Let’s see them play a few games against better teams and see if they can keep that up around 50%.

Granato’s new system is awesome at improving SV%!  😉

[nfreeman]

Well, I don't want to be the downer here, but I feel like I should say that the Devils, a pretty crappy team, had the better of the play for most of the game last night.  The Sabres certainly look better than the dead-eyed zombies they were for the last 15 games or so under RK, but they still have many miles to go IMHO. 

[Rasmus_]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Other than an initial blip of flash when Ralph was first fired, I think Skinner has been notably the same non-productive player he has been the past two years.

1G 1A in the 10 games since Ralph was sent packing, and his ice time is dwindling. Less than 11 minutes last night, even down a forward.

I see more drive to the net and a bit more effort, but you're right, the production is completely lacking.  However, if he can get his confidence and positivity back, that's where I was going with it.  Tough group! 😄

[Figster]

14 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I don't want to be the downer here, but I feel like I should say that the Devils, a pretty crappy team, had the better of the play for most of the game last night.  The Sabres certainly look better than the dead-eyed zombies they were for the last 15 games or so under RK, but they still have many miles to go IMHO. 

Fair enough, because to me it almost felt like last night was to see who owns bragging rights for the worse team in the NHL. Despite the 18 game losing streak the Sabres continue to say no, we are not. The Phantom Sabre hockey team has stepped out of the shadows and become a real force to be reckoned with as teams gear up for the playoffs. 

 Granato pushing all the right buttons...

Edited April 7, 2021 by Figster

[PromoTheRobot]

13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I don't want to be the downer here, but I feel like I should say that the Devils, a pretty crappy team, had the better of the play for most of the game last night.  The Sabres certainly look better than the dead-eyed zombies they were for the last 15 games or so under RK, but they still have many miles to go IMHO. 

How did they look against the Rangers, a team fighting for a playoff berth? We'll also get to see how they play vs the Pens, Caps, Isles and 6 against the Bruins. Let's assess again then. 

[French Collection]

47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Welcome, just keep in mind with HDCF it just records the shot and not the pre shot movement which analytics is rapidly trying to understand and track because ti is important. 

Does a shot from the point that is tipped by a teammate in the slot count as high danger?

[Doohicksie]

One thing I've noticed (eye test, not stats):  Under Krueger, even when they were playing "fast" and moving, they were less engaged.  There were more "drive-by" attempts to steal the puck but not a real commitment to get it.  If a player couldn't just skate by and knock it free they weren't going to kill their momentum doing it.  The Sabres are moving faster when they have the puck now, but when they don't, you see them actually stopping and making a real attempt to take the puck away from the opponent.  They're just a bit more tenacious on the puck when they don't have control, and it's paying dividends.  The Asplund goal and the Mitts goal last night were good examples: 

On Asplund's goal, the Devils were moving up ice, almost clearing the blue line.  Instead of just drifting back to a defensive posture, Asplund curls up on the blue line and just about stops.  The NJ player doesn't cleanly receive the pass and tries to kick it up to his stick but Asplund advances and gets to it first, tapping it to Casey and then jumping toward the goal on a give and go.  Under Krueger's system, Asplund stays above the puck, backing off at the blue line and allowing the Devils to clear.  Even if the pass is booted the same way and Asplund recovers the puck, he's already moving back and ceding the blue line.  Instead he digs in and stops and is able to keep the puck in the offensive zone.

Mittelstadt's goal is that and then some.  Dahlin mishandles the pass.  No one would blame him if he backed off defensively to make sure the Devils don't get a break.  But he aggressively recovers the puck, stepping up instead of backing off as the Devils player tries to knock the pack past him.

Two examples in terms of actually *not* moving, not going into "drive-by" mode, that resulted in goals.

There are a lot of other examples, especially by Mitts, where he doesn't just look as he goes by, he digs in and STOPS and battles for the puck.  They also seem to have a better sense of when it is time to back off.  It's like they're evaluating their puck battles better and making better choices on when to battle and when to back off.  Under Krueger their priority to stay above the puck meant that their default was to back off.

[Figster]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

One thing I've noticed (eye test, not stats):  Under Krueger, even when they were playing "fast" and moving, they were less engaged.  There were more "drive-by" attempts to steal the puck but not a real commitment to get it.  If a player couldn't just skate by and knock it free they weren't going to kill their momentum doing it.  The Sabres are moving faster when they have the puck now, but when they don't, you see them actually stopping and making a real attempt to take the puck away from the opponent.  They're just a bit more tenacious on the puck when they don't have control, and it's paying dividends.  The Asplund goal and the Mitts goal last night were good examples: 

On Asplund's goal, the Devils were moving up ice, almost clearing the blue line.  Instead of just drifting back to a defensive posture, Asplund curls up on the blue line and just about stops.  The NJ player doesn't cleanly receive the pass and tries to kick it up to his stick but Asplund advances and gets to it first, tapping it to Casey and then jumping toward the goal on a give and go.  Under Krueger's system, Asplund stays above the puck, backing off at the blue line and allowing the Devils to clear.  Even if the pass is booted the same way and Asplund recovers the puck, he's already moving back and ceding the blue line.  Instead he digs in and stops and is able to keep the puck in the offensive zone.

Mittelstadt's goal is that and then some.  Dahlin mishandles the pass.  No one would blame him if he backed off defensively to make sure the Devils don't get a break.  But he aggressively recovers the puck, stepping up instead of backing off as the Devils player tries to knock the pack past him.

Two examples in terms of actually *not* moving, not going into "drive-by" mode, that resulted in goals.

There are a lot of other examples, especially by Mitts, where he doesn't just look as he goes by, he digs in and STOPS and battles for the puck.  They also seem to have a better sense of when it is time to back off.  It's like they're evaluating their puck battles better and making better choices on when to battle and when to back off.  Under Krueger their priority to stay above the puck meant that their default was to back off.

I think with Ullmark in net it allows for more aggressiveness. Linus Ullmark is an NHL superstar in the makings at Goaltender IMO. 

I love watching him play. Ullmark knows instantly when the opposition beats him and the body language shows. He's hilarious, lol, what a character. I bet the team loves him.

Linus Ullmark is awesome...

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Does a shot from the point that is tipped by a teammate in the slot count as high danger?

My understanding is no. That would count as a tip and would be excluded but I am can not say 100% so if anyone else knows please chime in. They now track type of shot so if we had access to the advanced analytics teams do you could make sure that tips don't count or do count depending on your will. 

Generally point shots are considered low danger and not very smart in most situations. 

[pi2000]

For whatever reason, Ullmark looks like a better goalie under Granato.... and I'm not just talking number wise, can't really put my finger on it, but it just looks like he's playing with more determination, focus and confidence.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

For whatever reason, Ullmark looks like a better goalie under Granato.... and I'm not just talking number wise, can't really put my finger on it, but it just looks like he's playing with more determination, focus and confidence.

He’s been like that all year, it’s just that people were slow to notice.

Hasnt allowed 4 goals in regulation since January of 2020.

[Sabre fan]

while it sure is nice to see the team playing better and more in tune with how we all wish and desire them to play, I think it is also safe to say that it is truly impossible to get a full sense of Granato's coaching skills and whether he is capable of being the team's head coach on a permanent basis without  first getting back a bunch of players healthy, most notably Jack, Cozens, McCabe and Borgen. Take away four key players from any team and you will see a big drop. We cannot expect to beat the better teams without those guys back healthy. Then we will see just how well Granato can and will do...

[PromoTheRobot]

47 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

For whatever reason, Ullmark looks like a better goalie under Granato.... and I'm not just talking number wise, can't really put my finger on it, but it just looks like he's playing with more determination, focus and confidence.

I think it's a bit of "the best defense is a good offense." Because the Sabres are more of a threat offensively now teams might not be selling out in the Sabres zone as much. Under Kreuger I don't think opponents worried one bit about the Sabres in transition. But I also think the Sabres are more confident in their own end. We don't seem to get caught in that spiral death trap as much. We are able to break up plays and carry out of the zone.

6 minutes ago, Sabre fan said:

while it sure is nice to see the team playing better and more in tune with how we all wish and desire them to play, I think it is also safe to say that it is truly impossible to get a full sense of Granato's coaching skills and whether he is capable of being the team's head coach on a permanent basis without  first getting back a bunch of players healthy, most notably Jack, Cozens, McCabe and Borgen. Take away four key players from any team and you will see a big drop. We cannot expect to beat the better teams without those guys back healthy. Then we will see just how well Granato can and will do...

I don't expect Eichel to be back this year. I think he's fully shut down. It would be foolish to bring him back now. There's only a month left to the season.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Other than an initial blip of flash when Ralph was first fired, I think Skinner has been notably the same non-productive player he has been the past two years.

1G 1A in the 10 games since Ralph was sent packing, and his ice time is dwindling. Less than 11 minutes last night, even down a forward.

When you watch him play he seems so unconnected to his linemates. He certainly has skills such as his skating and at least in the past an ability to finish around the net. (Not so much now.) He's an isolation player who at times tries to blend in but his instincts don't allow it. Can he alter his game enough to fit in?  Is he irredeemable? I don't want to believe it but my eyes tell me otherwise. 

[LGR4GM]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He’s been like that all year, it’s just that people were slow to notice.

Hasnt allowed 4 goals in regulation since January of 2020.

He also had a month off (due to injury) to process his father's death. 

[Sabre fan]

27 minutes ago, JohnC said:

When you watch him play he seems so unconnected to his linemates. He certainly has skills such as his skating and at least in the past an ability to finish around the net. (Not so much now.) He's an isolation player who at times tries to blend in but his instincts don't allow it. Can he alter his game enough to fit in?  Is he irredeemable? I don't want to believe it but my eyes tell me otherwise. 

Skinner did however seem to really mesh with Jack (when he was healthy) and hopefully once we get Jack back (probably not til next year) we can put Skinner back with Jack and Sam and get the kind of production we got a few years back (which was great!). Obviously we desperately need Skinner to contribute at his salary...

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Sabre fan said:

Skinner did however seem to really mesh with Jack (when he was healthy) and hopefully once we get Jack back (probably not til next year) we can put Skinner back with Jack and Sam and get the kind of production we got a few years back (which was great!). Obviously we desperately need Skinner to contribute at his salary...

I'm not sure that he has fit in with the Jack line or even the second line. It's revealing that the newly installed coach has followed the same prescription of not placing him on either of the top two lines. What does that indicate to you about the player?