Lineup 2021-22

[LGR4GM]

Just now, pi2000 said:

I'm good with keeping him, sure put him w Cozens, but the LW needs to be defensively responsible and I'd be weary of DZ starts.   

There's a reason he's a -20 in 26 games.  Yeah I know plus minus is a flawed stat, but -20?  C'mon now.

He's -20 because the goaltending is atrocious, the defense is atrocious, and the team can't score. 

[pi2000]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

He's -20 because the goaltending is atrocious, the defense is atrocious, and the team can't score. 

-8 TRpm, second worst on the team to Dahlin's -13.

Yeah the team around him sucks, but not everyone is a -20.   

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

-8 TRpm, second worst on the team to Dahlin's -13.

Yeah the team around him sucks, but not everyone is a -20.   

I had 2 paragraphs typed but deleted it. We've had this conversation before and honestly I have no respect for TRpm because it is severely limited in telling us about anything other than the team is bad, which we know. 

+/- is a severely flawed stat and this has been explained to you multiple times. 

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

-8 TRpm, second worst on the team to Dahlin's -13.

Yeah the team around him sucks, but not everyone is a -20.   

Of course they are. They have worse +/- on the team because they have some of the highest ice time on a team with bad defense and atrocious goaltending. 

Dahlin, 2nd highest defender in ice time (highest is -12 Risto with 8 less games)

Reinhart, 2nd highest forward in ice time (highest is Jack ***** Eichel)

For forwards, next is Hall -17, Olofsson - 17 in TOI. 

TOI and Games Played correlate to +/- because the team has some of the worst goaltending in the league and they don't score. 

Edited March 18, 2021 by LGR4GM

[pi2000]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Of course they are. They have worse +/- on the team because they have some of the highest ice time on a team with bad defense and atrocious goaltending. 

TRpm normalizes plus minus based on % of ES min played.  Dahlin and Reinhart are getting scored on at a much higher rate at ES than anybody else on the team. 

That said I'm fine if they keep Sam but they need to do a better job of protecting his defensive deficiencies.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

TRpm normalizes plus minus based on % of ES min played.  Dahlin and Reinhart are getting scored on at a much higher rate at ES than anybody else on the team. 

That said I'm fine if they keep Sam but they need to do a better job of protecting his defensive deficiencies.

Yea, it is exceedingly flawed. The more time you are on the ice the more likely a goal is scored against because this team is bad. The goaltending is bad. 

They are not getting scored on "at much higher rate" than anybody else. Taylor Hall -17 compared to Reinhart at -20. Olofsson 14 less minutes played at -17. It doesn't mean anything. TRpm means nothing. 

The team has awful goaltending and can't score 5v5, which tells me that a players +/- says nothing about their defensive ability. 

[pi2000]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Yea, it is exceedingly flawed. The more time you are on the ice the more likely a goal is scored against because this team is bad. The goaltending is bad. 

They are not getting scored on "at much higher rate" than anybody else. Taylor Hall -17 compared to Reinhart at -20. Olofsson 14 less minutes played at -17. It doesn't mean anything. TRpm means nothing. 

You clearly don't understand TRpm.   It removes the TOI disparity when comparing +/- of players on the same team.

Reinhart and Dahlin are  getting scored on at higher rate at ES than the rest of the team, that's a fact, prove me wrong.

[LGR4GM]

Eric Staal, 430min of ice time compared to Reinhart's 514. Staal is -18. 

So Eric Staal is the worst forward on the team. 

0.042 Staal's plus minus adjusted based on his ice time

0.039 Reinhart's

0.034 Olofsson

0.032 Hall

And you know what this all tells me about them defensively... not a thing. Because it takes nothing into account other than goals and minutes. SV%, xGF, hell corsi for, all give me more information and account for more variables. 

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

You clearly don't understand TRpm.   It removes the TOI disparity when comparing +/- of players on the same team.

Reinhart and Dahlin are  getting scored on at higher rate at ES than the rest of the team, that's a fact, prove me wrong.

I just did. Eric Staal, higher - per minute than any other player on the team. 

Also you are only looking at ES with +/- which is another flaw. You discount large portions of the game for no reason. 

Edited March 18, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

You clearly don't understand TRpm.   It removes the TOI disparity when comparing +/- of players on the same team.

Reinhart and Dahlin are  getting scored on at higher rate at ES than the rest of the team, that's a fact, prove me wrong.

I am honestly tired of having this convo with you. I fully understand TRpm and it is exceedingly flawed, tells us nothing about a teams defense other than if it is terrible or not and completely ignores on ice SV% to give us a number that realistically doesn't help us determine who actually is a good or bad player. I have told you this before, I have explained my side before. TRpm is useless stat when I have other stats that give me more information and aren't as easily corrupted. 

[pi2000]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Eric Staal, 430min of ice time compared to Reinhart's 514. Staal is -18. 

So Eric Staal is the worst forward on the team. 

0.042 Staal's plus minus adjusted based on his ice time

0.039 Reinhart's

0.034 Olofsson

0.032 Hall

And you know what this all tells me about them defensively... not a thing. Because it takes nothing into account other than goals and minutes. SV%, xGF, hell corsi for, all give me more information and account for more variables. 

I just did. Eric Staal, higher - per minute than any other player on the team. 

Also you are only looking at ES with +/- which is another flaw. You discount large portions of the game for no reason. 

Now change TOI to ES TOI and you're almost there.

Staal is third worst at -7 TRpm 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

Now change TOI to ES TOI and you're almost there.

Staal is third worst at -7 TRpm 

Staal: 0.046

Reinhart: 0.047

I have answered your question. I will await you answering any of mine while you cling to what can only be described as a flawed garbage stat. 

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

TRpm normalizes plus minus based on % of ES min played.  Dahlin and Reinhart are getting scored on at a much higher rate at ES than anybody else on the team. 

That said I'm fine if they keep Sam but they need to do a better job of protecting his defensive deficiencies.

Reinhart certainly is not. Unless we count .005 much higher. 

And again, do we just not include the game being played on the PP? What about goaltending? What about team defense? What about shot quality? What about if the player was even involved in the play? 

Edited March 18, 2021 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

OK Who voted for Cody Eakin?

[LabattBlue]

I voted for Cozens, Bryson,  Borgen, and reluctantly...Dahlin.  
 

I really don’t care if they keep any of the others.  I realize they won’t all be gone, but they should definitely be taking offers on any of them. 

[pi2000]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

OK Who voted for Cody Eakin?

I did, he's a fantastic role player, PK, faceoffs, excels defensively, smart.... every team needs a few of those guys. 

Anybody who's played the game knows It's not just about points.   You need glue guys.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Reinhart certainly is not. Unless we count .005 much higher. 

And again, do we just not include the game being played on the PP? What about goaltending? What about team defense? What about shot quality? What about if the player was even involved in the play? 

I never said anything about PP, goaltending, team defense, etc...   I'm simply stating what the numbers are telling us, and that's that Dahlin and Reinhart get scored on at a higher rate at ES than anybody else on the team.      

IMO RK hasn't been using Dahlin correctly, he still young, growing, getting stronger, I believe he still needs to be protected a bit in how they deploy him.    

I'd argue the same can be said for Reinhart...  he's not a great skater, weak on pucks, weak defensively, gets knocked down in battles, turns pucks over, etc..   He can be an asset because of what he contributes on the PP, his willingness to play the net front in the O-zone, elite hand-eye for deflections, etc..  

Look, there are a lot of elite offensive players who are poor defensively with poor plus/minus.   

Howeer, do Sam's contributions to the offense outweigh his shortcomings in the other areas of the ice?    At ES, the answer is clearly no.

 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I am honestly tired of having this convo with you.

Clearly not.😆

[Curt]

@pi2000

Why is a poor +\- automatically indicative of poor defensive play?  Is it not just as likely to indicative of poor offensive play.  It’s not a defensive statistic, it weights offensive and defensive results equally.

Also, the Sabres have given up 8, 8!, EN goals so far this season.  Your stat is deeply, deeply flawed if those are just ignored and counted the same as an ES goal.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Curt

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I never said anything about PP, goaltending, team defense, etc...   I'm simply stating what the numbers are telling us, and that's that Dahlin and Reinhart get scored on at a higher rate at ES than anybody else on the team.      

IMO RK hasn't been using Dahlin correctly, he still young, growing, getting stronger, I believe he still needs to be protected a bit in how they deploy him.    

I'd argue the same can be said for Reinhart...  he's not a great skater, weak on pucks, weak defensively, gets knocked down in battles, turns pucks over, etc..   He can be an asset because of what he contributes on the PP, his willingness to play the net front in the O-zone, elite hand-eye for deflections, etc..  

Look, there are a lot of elite offensive players who are poor defensively with poor plus/minus.   

Howeer, do Sam's contributions to the offense outweigh his shortcomings in the other areas of the ice?    At ES, the answer is clearly no.

 

False

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

@pi2000

Why is a poor +\- automatically indicative of poor defensive play?  Is it not just as likely to indicative of poor offensive play.  It’s not a defensive statistic, it weights offensive and defensive results equally.

Also, the Sabres have given up 8, 8!, EN goals so far this season.  Your stat is deeply, deeply flawed if those are just ignored and counted the same as an ES goal.

He knows it is. I think at this point it has become a game. 

[pi2000]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

@pi2000

Why is a poor +\- automatically indicative of poor defensive play?  Is it not just as likely to indicative of poor offensive play.  It’s not a defensive statistic, it weights offensive and defensive results equally.

Also, the Sabres have given up 8, 8!, EN goals so far this season.  Your stat is deeply, deeply flawed if those are just ignored and counted the same as an ES goal.

When you're the team's leading scorer and yet you're a -20 after 26 games..... you just think we should ignore that?   Fine.     Nothing jumps out at you there as hey, maybe he's not good defensively?    C'mon. 

I provided hard statistical evidence that Sam gets scored on at a high rate when compared to his teammates.    I'd like to see some evidence from the Reinhart apologists that illustrate he's a net positive for the team at ES.

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

When you're the team's leading scorer and yet you're a -20 after 26 games..... you just think we should ignore that?   Fine.     Nothing jumps out at you there as hey, maybe he's not good defensively?    C'mon. 

I provided hard statistical evidence that Sam gets scored on at a high rate when compared to his teammates.    I'd like to see some evidence from the Reinhart apologists that illustrate he's a net positive for the team at ES.

So no. You cannot account for the league leading 8 empty net goals against the Sabres which could swing Reinhart's +/- from -20 to -12. 

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So no. You cannot account for the league leading 8 empty net goals against the Sabres which could swing Reinhart's +/- from -20 to -12. 

Show me where he's a -8 because of ENG against.   You know this for a fact?  smh

BTW, still waiting for the statistical evidence that shows Sam is a net positive for the team at ES.

 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Show me where he's a -8 because of ENG against.   You know this for a fact?  smh

BTW, still waiting for the statistical evidence that shows Sam is a net positive for the team at ES.

 

I am waiting for you to prove that TRpm tells us anything. 

Show me that his -20 is not impacted significantly by the 8 empty net goals. +/- simply measures goals for an against at even strengths. Empty goals happen at even strength and the Sabres have 8 against. How has that impacted your number which claims Sam is the worst forward on the team?

[Curt]

28 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

When you're the team's leading scorer and yet you're a -20 after 26 games..... you just think we should ignore that?   Fine.     Nothing jumps out at you there as hey, maybe he's not good defensively?    C'mon. 

I provided hard statistical evidence that Sam gets scored on at a high rate when compared to his teammates.    I'd like to see some evidence from the Reinhart apologists that illustrate he's a net positive for the team at ES.

I didn’t say one single word about Reinhart.  I have no interest in discussing him with you. As far as I’m concerned, crusade on man.  Thats your thing.

Im just trying to point out a major defect in your pet statistic.  This season, Sabres have one EN goal for and 8 against.  That -7 differential is going to impact some of the guys who are on the ice at end of games fairly heavily.

Edited March 18, 2021 by Curt