Fire Kevyn Adams

[jad1]

13 minutes ago, Curt said:

Why do you think that?  Adams plans, which it’s been reported that Pegula signed off on, obviously did not include winning this season.  The results are not exactly unexpected.

To me, this looks like year 1 of Adams carrying out his plan.  It’s just way to soon to pull the plug, even for the Pegulas.

Plans are great, but when the losses pile up and the arena is empty, basic business principals take over and guys get fired.

They are many good people on this board who believe in what Adams is doing, and they do a great job of analyzing his plan.  But the general fanbase is not on board with the direction of the team.  There aren't 19,000 fans in the arena eager to watch Tage Thompson's development during a 13 game winless streak.

In the end, the only thing that matters is wins.  And if Adams can't produce them, all it takes is a Pegula calling Karmanos into his office and asking, "So, what would you do different if you were the GM."

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, jad1 said:

Yes.  And if the Sabres are in the bottom 5 of the league come April and averaging 7,000 fans a game, I'd say that there's a 100% chance he's fired.

I have bad news for you on what Adams and Karmanos sold to Pegula in terms of what this year was going to be. 

I think there's a 0% chance Adams is fired this year. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Plans are great, but when the losses pile up and the arena is empty, basic business principals take over and guys get fired.

They are many good people on this board who believe in what Adams is doing, and they do a great job of analyzing his plan.  But the general fanbase is not on board with the direction of the team.  There aren't 19,000 fans in the arena eager to watch Tage Thompson's development during a 13 game winless streak.

In the end, the only thing that matters is wins.  And if Adams can't produce them, all it takes is a Pegula calling Karmanos into his office and asking, "So, what would you do different if you were the GM."

Kamranos is associate GM. That title is important and a reason why what you are saying isn't going to happen. Karmanos and Adams are playing the same game, on the same team, with the same strategy. Adams is 100% not getting fired this year. Adams IMPO is the go between from Karmanos to Pegula with obviously input to both ppl. Adams seems to know his limits and has brought in ppl to compensate. 

Pegula isn't going to fire a guy after 1 season, especially when that guy has Pegulas trust and is the one who sold pegula on the rebuild. 

[jad1]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I have bad news for you on what Adams and Karmanos sold to Pegula in terms of what this year was going to be. 

I think there's a 0% chance Adams is fired this year. 

Well they sold that plan to a historically impatient owner.  And Adams and Karmanos are two separate people

I guess we'll agree to disagree and see what happens 😉

 

[jad1]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Kamranos is associate GM. That title is important and a reason why what you are saying isn't going to happen. Karmanos and Adams are playing the same game, on the same team, with the same strategy. Adams is 100% not getting fired this year. Adams IMPO is the go between from Karmanos to Pegula with obviously input to both ppl. Adams seems to know his limits and has brought in ppl to compensate. 

Pegula isn't going to fire a guy after 1 season, especially when that guy has Pegulas trust and is the one who sold pegula on the rebuild. 

This is Adams 2nd season, that's fact.

And the record book shows that Adams finished dead last in the NHL his FIRST season.  He owns that, no matter the excuses that are made for him.

Pegula has fired plenty of people after their 2nd seasons.  And in each case he was right to do so.

And again, Adams and Karmanos are two different people.  They play the same game as long as it benefits each of then to do so.

Hopefully by March, the Sabres have turned things around and are posting more wins, and the fans return and attendance trends up. Things will be OK if that happens.

If that doesn't happen, though, and the losses continue and the attendance declines, look out, because we're in store for a patented Pegula blood bath.

 

[jad1]

31 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No history of moving people around in the organization?  Huh?

Brandon moved from Bills President to President over all the teams.  Adams himself moved up from the Hockey Acadamy to running Harbor Center to Running the Sabres (not including earlier moves).

He moves people all over.

Those were promotions, not reassignments for people who failed at their current job.

If Pegula is looking for a new GM, he's not going to choose moving Adams up the ladder instead of firing him.

This is the same nonsense that was knocked around with Krueger last year.  

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, jad1 said:

This is Adams 2nd season, that's fact.

And the record book shows that Adams finished dead last in the NHL his FIRST season.  He owns that, no matter the excuses that are made for him.

Pegula has fired plenty of people after their 2nd seasons.  And in each case he was right to do so.

And again, Adams and Karmanos are two different people.  They play the same game as long as it benefits each of then to do so.

Hopefully by March, the Sabres have turned things around and are posting more wins, and the fans return and attendance trends up. Things will be OK if that happens.

If that doesn't happen, though, and the losses continue and the attendance declines, look out, because we're in store for a patented Pegula blood bath.

 

You can be mad all you want. This is rebuild year 1, Adams isn't on the hot seat. The Sabres will be a bottom 5 team and attendance will suck. Adams will still be gm July 1.

[jad1]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You can be mad all you want. This is rebuild year 1, Adams isn't on the hot seat. The Sabres will be a bottom 5 team and attendance will suck. Adams will still be gm July 1.

I'm not mad.  I just have an opinion based on what I've observed from Pegula and from sport teams in general and I'm sharing it on a message board.

Does it you make you mad that I believe that there's a strong possibility that Adams might be fired if the losses and poor attendance continue?

 

 

Edited December 14, 2021 by jad1

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Plans are great, but when the losses pile up and the arena is empty, basic business principals take over and guys get fired.

They are many good people on this board who believe in what Adams is doing, and they do a great job of analyzing his plan.  But the general fanbase is not on board with the direction of the team.  There aren't 19,000 fans in the arena eager to watch Tage Thompson's development during a 13 game winless streak.

 

I'm pretty sure the minimum wage payroll right now is an acknowledgement that they expected the barn to be empty this year.

The business plan is to plant a seed with a "hard work" identity this year, and put more butts in seats next year with Quinn/Power/Krebs etc. garnering more hype and more wins.

 

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, jad1 said:

I'm not mad.  I just have an opinion based on what I've observed from Pegula and from sport teams in general and I'm sharing it on a message board.

Does it you make you mad that I believe that there's a strong possibility that Adams might be fired if the losses and poor attendance continue?

 

 

No, I just thought you were mad about the situation. 

[jad1]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm pretty sure the minimum wage payroll right now is an acknowledgement that they expected the barn to be empty this year.

The business plan is to plant a seed with a "hard work" identity this year, and put more butts in seats next year with Quinn/Power/Krebs etc. garnering more hype and more wins.

 

So things can turn around this season, but while they thought it was going to be bad, I doubt that they thought that the loses and attendance would be this bad.

Traditionally, poor attendance for the Sabres would be around 12-14k per game.  This year, that has dropped significantly.  And while covid has played a role in this drop, TV ratings for the games are also significantly lower this year. I don't think the plan was to completely lose the fan base like the team has done this year.

The "hard work" approach could be expected result in a record hovering around .500.  Lately, the team's record has been significantly worse.

So there's 'suffering' and then there's 'suffering.'

Again, hopefully the plan grabs a little traction with improved goaltending and continued maturation of the young guys, and cameos from the future stars.

But if things continue down the current path, it's hard to believe that those results were part of the plan.

 

 

 

[Flashsabre]

The difference is Adams is the Pegulas guy. Both Murray and Botts were people the NHL strongly suggested to the Pegulas. They feel burned by that. They are big on loyalty and Adams is the ultimate loyalty soldier.

Adams has worked lockstep with the Pegulas for a decade and made them happy in every role he was given. They are happy they have Adams in place. They trust him and the communication is honest and open. Adams knows how to handle them too. What to say and do to make them happy.

This is a rebuild and Adams has a ton of runway ahead of him.

Edited December 14, 2021 by Flashsabre

[Taro T]

43 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Those were promotions, not reassignments for people who failed at their current job.

If Pegula is looking for a new GM, he's not going to choose moving Adams up the ladder instead of firing him.

This is the same nonsense that was knocked around with Krueger last year.  

You honestly don't think Brandon failed at his job as Bills President?  He is the guy that sold the Pegulas on Rex Ryan.  He's the jack-hole that brought us the Toronto games.

Adams already is effectively the Team President.  Don't see ANY way (barring something totally unexpected like a morals clause related issue) that Adams gets punted THIS off-season & really expect him here at least through next season & he's likely a part of this organization for the long haul.

[SabresVet]

1 hour ago, jad1 said:

Plans are great, but when the losses pile up and the arena is empty, basic business principals take over and guys get fired.

They are many good people on this board who believe in what Adams is doing, and they do a great job of analyzing his plan.  But the general fanbase is not on board with the direction of the team.  There aren't 19,000 fans in the arena eager to watch Tage Thompson's development during a 13 game winless streak.

In the end, the only thing that matters is wins.  And if Adams can't produce them, all it takes is a Pegula calling Karmanos into his office and asking, "So, what would you do different if you were the GM."

With 8,500 fans in the building each night, that's 10,000+ tickets unsold per game.  Over 41 home games (and I don't know if they share ticket revenue with opponents) that's more than 400,000 seats unfilled this season.  At an average of $75 per, you're talking a 30M loss.

If that continues into season 3 (2022-23) I can definitely see Adams being canned.  It's hard for me to understand how people minimize the financial piece of this business.  We know they reduced payroll in anticipation of lower revenue, but that's a lot of money for a smaller market NHL team. 

For the record, Buffalo is more than 3k less than the 31st ranked team for attendance: https://www.espn.com/nhl/attendance

[jad1]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

You honestly don't think Brandon failed at his job as Bills President?  He is the guy that sold the Pegulas on Rex Ryan.  He's the jack-hole that brought us the Toronto games.

Adams already is effectively the Team President.  Don't see ANY way (barring something totally unexpected like a morals clause related issue) that Adams gets punted THIS off-season & really expect him here at least through next season & he's likely a part of this organization for the long haul.

I can appreciate that.  My opinion is that a bottom five finish, bottom of the league attendance means Adams gets booted.

It's fine to disagree.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, jad1 said:

I can appreciate that.  My opinion is that a bottom five finish, bottom of the league attendance means Adams gets booted.

It's fine to disagree.

The most likely outcome is both of those things. However the least likely result of low attendance and poor record is Adams being fired this offseason. Adams just traded Eichel, you don't let the gm you're about to fire do that. 

[jad1]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

The most likely outcome is both of those things. However the least likely result of low attendance and poor record is Adams being fired this offseason. Adams just traded Eichel, you don't let the gm you're about to fire do that. 

I think that the attendance is a lost cause, but also believe that the team can play better and have a stronger finish than bottom five.

But to your point about trading Eichel, IF the Sabres finish poorly, and are sitting on the assets acquired by Adams at the end of season, Pegula could easily pull Adams and Karmanos into separate meetings and ask them where to we go from here?  And if Karmanos gives the better answer, why wouldn't he be given the job?  Why shouldn't he be given the job?

 

 

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, jad1 said:

I think that the attendance is a lost cause, but also believe that the team can play better and have a stronger finish than bottom five.

But to your point about trading Eichel, IF the Sabres finish poorly, and are sitting on the assets acquired by Adams at the end of season, Pegula could easily pull Adams and Karmanos into separate meetings and ask them where to we go from here?  And if Karmanos gives the better answer, why wouldn't he be given the job?  Why shouldn't he be given the job?

I think karmanos is already doing a big chunk of the job. Adams and Karmanos are on the same page on how to accomplish that. 

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, jad1 said:

So things can turn around this season, but while they thought it was going to be bad, I doubt that they thought that the loses and attendance would be this bad.

Traditionally, poor attendance for the Sabres would be around 12-14k per game.  This year, that has dropped significantly.  And while covid has played a role in this drop, TV ratings for the games are also significantly lower this year. I don't think the plan was to completely lose the fan base like the team has done this year.

The "hard work" approach could be expected result in a record hovering around .500.  Lately, the team's record has been significantly worse.

So there's 'suffering' and then there's 'suffering.'

Again, hopefully the plan grabs a little traction with improved goaltending and continued maturation of the young guys, and cameos from the future stars.

But if things continue down the current path, it's hard to believe that those results were part of the plan.

 

 

 

I definitely doubt 7,000 was part of the plan, and agree the "hard work" thing is precarious.

Thing is, the Pegulas have never fired a GM for results. Murray was fired for being a boorish boozer who ran an embarrassingly loose ship. Botterill was fired for not following orders.

Somehow I don't think those things are a concern with Adams.

Maybe attendance will be, but it's hard to make a case the bad attendance is Adams' fault, or that it's a situation like Jim Benning in Vancouver where the fans were demanding his head.

Edited December 14, 2021 by dudacek

[jad1]

Just now, dudacek said:

I definitely doubt 7,000 was part of the plan, and agree the "hard work" thing is precarious.

Thing is, the Pegulas have never fired a GM for results. Murray was fired for being a boorish boozer who ran an embarrassingly loose ship. Botterill was fired for not following orders.

Somehow I don;t think those things are a concern with Adams.

Sure, he seems like a stand up guy. 

But neither of those guys lost the fan base to the extent that the team has this year, and neither of them finished bottom five two years in a row (if the Sabres finish poorly this season).

If the team can't turn it around this year, Adams' plan will have hit Pegula harder in the wallet that planned, with less on-ice success than promised, with greater fan apathy than anticipated.

That might motivate Pegula to turn the organization over to someone with a better plan.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, jad1 said:

Sure, he seems like a stand up guy. 

But neither of those guys lost the fan base to the extent that the team has this year, and neither of them finished bottom five two years in a row (if the Sabres finish poorly this season).

If the team can't turn it around this year, Adams' plan will have hit Pegula harder in the wallet that planned, with less on-ice success than promised, with greater fan apathy than anticipated.

That might motivate Pegula to turn the organization over to someone with a better plan.

 

What do you think Adams plan is?

[jad1]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

What do you think Adams plan is?

Rebuild the team through the draft.  Remove 'problem' players through trades for future assets.  Turn the short term focus of the entire organization to development.  Promote guys to the big club based on speed and attitude.  Sign veterens to short-term deals so that there are no impediments to the promotion of young players when they are ready.  

The focus is on future development, sacrificing wins now for wins later.

 

[Hank]

Draft and develop. 

 

I think we are at least three years away from KA being fired. People should be wanting him to succeed because he isn't going anywhere. 

[Curt]

6 hours ago, jad1 said:

Plans are great, but when the losses pile up and the arena is empty, basic business principals take over and guys get fired.

They are many good people on this board who believe in what Adams is doing, and they do a great job of analyzing his plan.  But the general fanbase is not on board with the direction of the team.  There aren't 19,000 fans in the arena eager to watch Tage Thompson's development during a 13 game winless streak.

In the end, the only thing that matters is wins.  And if Adams can't produce them, all it takes is a Pegula calling Karmanos into his office and asking, "So, what would you do different if you were the GM."

We just disagree.  I think Adams is 100% safe this offseason.

So what are your parameters?  Bottom 5 finish and last in the league attendance will get Adams canned?  Care for a friendly bet?

[JKB1646]

KA deserves sometime to implement his plan and guarantee he gets at least two more seasons. Isn’t there a smidget of change in team culture going on before our eyes as we write?