Every Game a Four Point Game

[SwampD]

Okay. Time for a little optimism.

I keep hearing that there is no way the Sabres make the playoffs this year, given how far down in the standings they already are,... oh, and their current play. I agree that they’ve dug one heck of a hole to climb out of.

But say the lightbulb turns on. Say Ralph’s system starts to click. Say our top 6 actually start scoring and we actually start winning. A bout of Covid or a key injury to another team (both of which we already dealt with) and that path is even easier.

In other years, a team could go on a 5 game win streak, but other teams in the division won 4 and no ground was gained. This year, every game is a four point game. I don’t think the hole we’ve dug is as deep as it may have been in previous years.

ROCK’EM SABRES!!!!

“I’m not dead yet!”

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Okay. Time for a little optimism.

I keep hearing that there is no way the Sabres make the playoffs this year, given how far down in the standings they already are,... oh, and their current play. I agree that they’ve dug one heck of a hole to climb out of.

But say the lightbulb turns on. Say Ralph’s system starts to click. Say our top 6 actually start scoring and we actually start winning. A bout of Covid or a key injury to another team (both of which we already dealt with) and that path is even easier.

In other years, a team could go on a 5 game win streak, but other teams in the division won 4 and no ground was gained. This year, every game is a four point game. I don’t think the hole we’ve dug is as deep as it may have been in previous years.

ROCK’EM SABRES!!!!

“I’m not dead yet!”

Optimism is great, but the math just doesn't work.

I posted the math in a different thread, but here is the bottom line...right now the last playoff spot in this division is on pace for about 76 points.  If the Sabres get hot, they will take some points away from those teams, but it still is likely you will need at LEAST 70 points.

With the number of remaining games, the Sabres would have to basically be the best team in the league for the rest of the year. They have to gain points at a pace over the next 30 games slightly better than anyone has so far through the first part of the season. And even then, that will only get them to about 70 points and it may not be enough. The hole is too big.

Edited March 6, 2021 by mjd1001

[Weave]

7 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Okay. Time for a little optimism.

I keep hearing that there is no way the Sabres make the playoffs this year, given how far down in the standings they already are,... oh, and their current play. I agree that they’ve dug one heck of a hole to climb out of.

But say the lightbulb turns on. Say Ralph’s system starts to click. Say our top 6 actually start scoring and we actually start winning. A bout of Covid or a key injury to another team (both of which we already dealt with) and that path is even easier.

In other years, a team could go on a 5 game win streak, but other teams in the division won 4 and no ground was gained. This year, every game is a four point game. I don’t think the hole we’ve dug is as deep as it may have been in previous years.

ROCK’EM SABRES!!!!

“I’m not dead yet!”

Well, what the hell we supposed to do you mo-ron?

 

[Kruppstahl]

This season is over.

 

 

[Gatorman0519]

The math is simply too much.  They would have to go on an unprecedented run to get a playoff spot. We can't even score more than 2 goals in a game anymore. The more pertinent question should be, could we finish last in the league?  That is way more likely.

[SwampD]

24 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

The math is simply too much.  They would have to go on an unprecedented run to get a playoff spot. We can't even score more than 2 goals in a game anymore. The more pertinent question should be, could we finish last in the league?  That is way more likely.

It would not be unprecedented. They just need to beat the 4th place team.

[bunomatic]

I watched the Bruins /Caps game tonight. Those teams are in another league. That game was everything the Sabres aren’t. It would take a roster turnover of epic proportions to transform this group into anything resembling those teams. Shrinking violets cannot win against men. This team is done. No playoffs nada zip.

[Gatorman0519]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

It would not be unprecedented. They just need to beat the 4th place team.

They can’t win a game let alone 8 of the next 10 

[SwampD]

47 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

They can’t win a game let alone 8 of the next 10 

We’ll see.

[PerreaultForever]

We might win a few games somewhere along the line due to teams not taking us seriously or facing back up goalies but otherwise I've seen absolutely nothing that tells me we can even compete with the level of hockey being played by the big boys.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

17 hours ago, SwampD said:

Okay. Time for a little optimism.

I keep hearing that there is no way the Sabres make the playoffs this year, given how far down in the standings they already are,... oh, and their current play. I agree that they’ve dug one heck of a hole to climb out of.

But say the lightbulb turns on. Say Ralph’s system starts to click. Say our top 6 actually start scoring and we actually start winning. A bout of Covid or a key injury to another team (both of which we already dealt with) and that path is even easier.

In other years, a team could go on a 5 game win streak, but other teams in the division won 4 and no ground was gained. This year, every game is a four point game. I don’t think the hole we’ve dug is as deep as it may have been in previous years.

ROCK’EM SABRES!!!!

“I’m not dead yet!”

I agree completely.  This will happen.

Starting this afternoon.

[IKnowPhysics]

3 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

I agree completely.  This will happen.

Starting this afternoon.

Narrator: It did not start this afternoon.

[Thorner]

K someone run the updated math

we may have to go double or nothing some of these games 

[SwampD]

14 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

They can’t win a game let alone 8 of the next 10 

How about 8 of the next 9?

[DarthEbriate]

We had the opportunity coming out of COVID break. Beat the median/bottom teams: NYI, PHI, NYR, NJ to get back right in the 5th-6th range. Because maybe, just maybe then you end up having one of those flukey seasons where you just plain own Boston and/or Pitt -- you know, like how Detroit owned ... was it Montreal? last season or something. We did not do that.

I feel so... helpless.

[mjd1001]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

K someone run the updated math

we may have to go double or nothing some of these games 

Sabres now have 34 games left. 68 possible points.

Philly is in 4th currently on the pace for a fraction over 72 points.

To get to 73 points, the Sabres would need 85.3% of all available points (The best teams in the league now are getting about 77%, Last season boston led the league with about 71%)

If you think someone in the division falls a bit and the Sabres could get in with 70 points...they still need about 81% of available points.

Basically, from this point forward they have to be the best team in the league, and go on a streak over 30 games that would be epic and almost unprecedented in recent memory by anyone...to get that 4th and final divisional playoff spot.

[Scottysabres]

Was it over when the Ger......

Meh, the hell with it, its been over.

[SDS]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Sabres now have 34 games left. 68 possible points.

Philly is in 4th currently on the pace for a fraction over 72 points.

To get to 73 points, the Sabres would need 85.3% of all available points (The best teams in the league now are getting about 77%, Last season boston led the league with about 71%)

If you think someone in the division falls a bit and the Sabres could get in with 70 points...they still need about 81% of available points.

Basically, from this point forward they have to be the best team in the league, and go on a streak over 30 games that would be epic and almost unprecedented in recent memory by anyone...to get that 4th and final divisional playoff spot.

So you say there’s still a chance?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

20 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Narrator: It did not start this afternoon.

Would you believe ... this afternoon?