Friday 3/5: Adams to Speak to Media at 4:30

[thewookie1]

Nothing makes Raanta worth a 2021 1st. 

If anything we should of taken Vegas up on their offer of MAF with a 2nd for future considerations. We wouldn’t of got Hall but it would of likely helped us far more.

[Randall Flagg]

10 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. It’s not really about the fact goaltending probably wouldn’t have saved us. This is about roster evaluation. Did ADAMS think we weren’t going to be in a position for those lost points not to matter? I sure as heck hope not. 

He thought we’d be in it, and as you’ve mentioned, you agree, the points Hutton is costing us ARE of significant quantity to prohibit a playoff berth had we been a better team. Which Adams thought we would be. So Adams misjudged 

Seriously, how does it make logical sense for Adams to be let off the hook for poor goaltending from Hutton simply because he didn’t himself field a roster good enough for it to matter?! That’s so illogical and frankly I’d be surprised and embarrassed for the analytics gurus if they missed that. 

I still think there's a reasonable chance that the cost barrier to goalies that teams apparently had no interest in moving (because nobody moved any goalies despite a plethora of rumors, or any other notable skaters really, of interest all offseason, with notable chatter that teams were reluctant to make big changes given the circumstances) was so high that it would have been a ludicrous move to look at in hindsight with how bad the team is. I understand if you don't think this is true, since I'm basing most of my belief in this on circumstantial evidence and my gut intuition.

This shifts focus to why we are so bad in the first place then. Results are all that matter for sure, and Kevyn is GM during this horrible stretch of hockey. But I've skimmed threads from the fall of 2020, and I don't think anyone saw anything like this coming, and I don't think it all has to do with the inherent quality of the incoming roster (Jack is dogshit compared to last year's MVP-chatter performance, which is massive. Skinner is dogshit. Hall looks like dogshit, and Staal fell off a cliff). Many people attribute this to coaching, which Kevyn has control over. But he also acquired a roster that apparently loves their coach, which combined with his boss's lack of desire to pay another fired coach when the fiscal situation is what it is, make it seem completely reasonable to have made the decision to hang onto the coach. I have a hard time feeling real emotion over this decision, or tying what I see on the ice to anger towards Kevyn.

When Jason Botterill was GM, I could see for myself in real time the ridiculous mistakes he was making, and spent my time watching the team just knowing that things were going to fall apart any second. With everything that encapsulates Kevyn's few months in charge, I don't feel that same sort of thing playing out. What read as post-hoc excuses to some people seem like legitimate explanations that I actually wondered about at the time (can a GM really operate with such a limited staff? even tom webster made sure to caution against being 100% certain a goalie change was coming, despite is belief it was almost a shoo-in. His reasons seem to have merit, as these goalies didn't just not get moved the Sabres, they didn't go ANYWHERE). It's not that I think he's good or anything, or doesn't deserve criticism. This situation just feels more like Joe Sakic circa 2016-17 than it does Bad Sabres GM circa 21st century

 

 

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

Nothing makes Raanta worth a 2021 1st. 

If anything we should of taken Vegas up on their offer of MAF with a 2nd for future considerations. We wouldn’t of got Hall but it would of likely helped us far more.

Fleury was a guy I forgot about, I feel like the story on his availability always flip flopped by the day. How "available" was he really, because they certainly don't want to trade him right now.

[Derrico]

23 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right. It’s not really about the fact goaltending probably wouldn’t have saved us. This is about roster evaluation. Did ADAMS think we weren’t going to be in a position for those lost points not to matter? I sure as heck hope not. 

He thought we’d be in it, and as you’ve mentioned, you agree, the points Hutton is costing us ARE of significant quantity to prohibit a playoff berth had we been a better team. Which Adams thought we would be. So Adams misjudged both. 

Seriously, how does it make logical sense for Adams to be let off the hook for poor goaltending from Hutton simply because he didn’t himself field a roster good enough for it to matter?! That’s so illogical and frankly I’d be surprised and embarrassed for the analytics gurus if they missed that. 

Well put Thorny.  You explained it a lot better then I did.

 

My point was also that Adams atleast tried bringing in a 2C and signed one of the biggest free agent wingers.  Yes we all see right now they are still scoring at historically low rates.  Based on the on paper lineup I think they are massively underperforming which falls on coaching.  Goaltending was an obvious weakness going in and the numbers are very similar to what we could expect, which is not nearly good enough.  So although the scoring and play outside of goaltending is also killing this team, my major concern is Adams ought to have made upgrading his goaltending the highest priority. 

 

@Randall Flagg - if Arizona is asking for too much then move on to someone else.  There are 29 other teams with starters, backups and prospects.  I’m not suggesting overpaying for a mediocre goalie but as you suggested go down the Gibson road or someone equivalent where it is worth moving someone of value for.  This team will not come close to sniffing the playoffs until goaltending is addressed and I still stand by it.  Thankfully Hutton is done after this year but the problem still doesn’t change this summer.  The exact same elephant in the room remains and goaltending will still need to be addressed.  This is a major red flag for Adams IMO. 

7 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Nothing makes Raanta worth a 2021 1st. 

Nobody is suggesting that he is.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Derrico said:

Well put Thorny.  You explained it a lot better then I did.

 

My point was also that Adams atleast tried bringing in a 2C and signed one of the biggest free agent wingers.  Yes we all see right now they are still scoring at historically low rates.  Based on the on paper lineup I think they are massively underperforming which falls on coaching.  Goaltending was an obvious weakness going in and the numbers are very similar to what we could expect, which is not nearly good enough.  So although the scoring and play outside of goaltending is also killing this team, my major concern is Adams ought to have made upgrading his goaltending the highest priority. 

 

@Randall Flagg - if Arizona is asking for too much then move on to someone else.  There are 29 other teams with starters, backups and prospects.  I’m not suggesting overpaying for a mediocre goalie but as you suggested go down the Gibson road or someone equivalent where it is worth moving someone of value for.  This team will not come close to sniffing the playoffs until goaltending is addressed and I still stand by it.  Thankfully Hutton is done after this year but the problem still doesn’t change this summer.  The exact same elephant in the room remains and goaltending will still need to be addressed.  This is a major red flag for Adams IMO. 

Nobody is suggesting that he is.

This conversation would be so much easier if tom webster was able to give us a liiiiittle more info! There really is too much speculation to be sure. 

I just have a better gut feeling/trust with Kevyn than I did with the last couple guys, at least. It makes my worry barometer a little lower than yours. 

I think we are in full agreement on what needs to be done though. I'm just as pissed as you that Carter is still on this team, though I still haven't fully processed my anger that he made the 2019-20 team

 

[Derrico]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I just have a better gut feeling/trust with Kevyn than I did with the last couple guys, at least. 

 

I sure hope you’re right my friend.  Maybe I’m just jaded by the embarrassment this franchise has become and what it has done to my fan hood.  I’m just done giving anyone in this organization the benefit of the doubt anymore.

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I still think there's a reasonable chance that the cost barrier to goalies that teams apparently had no interest in moving (because nobody moved any goalies despite a plethora of rumors, or any other notable skaters really, of interest all offseason, with notable chatter that teams were reluctant to make big changes given the circumstances) was so high that it would have been a ludicrous move to look at in hindsight with how bad the team is. I understand if you don't think this is true, since I'm basing most of my belief in this on circumstantial evidence and my gut intuition.

This shifts focus to why we are so bad in the first place then. Results are all that matter for sure, and Kevyn is GM during this horrible stretch of hockey. But I've skimmed threads from the fall of 2020, and I don't think anyone saw anything like this coming, and I don't think it all has to do with the inherent quality of the incoming roster (Jack is dogshit compared to last year's MVP-chatter performance, which is massive. Skinner is dogshit. Hall looks like dogshit, and Staal fell off a cliff). Many people attribute this to coaching, which Kevyn has control over. But he also acquired a roster that apparently loves their coach, which combined with his boss's lack of desire to pay another fired coach when the fiscal situation is what it is, make it seem completely reasonable to have made the decision to hang onto the coach. I have a hard time feeling real emotion over this decision, or tying what I see on the ice to anger towards Kevyn.

When Jason Botterill was GM, I could see for myself in real time the ridiculous mistakes he was making, and spent my time watching the team just knowing that things were going to fall apart any second. With everything that encapsulates Kevyn's few months in charge, I don't feel that same sort of thing playing out. What read as post-hoc excuses to some people seem like legitimate explanations that I actually wondered about at the time (can a GM really operate with such a limited staff? even tom webster made sure to caution against being 100% certain a goalie change was coming, despite is belief it was almost a shoo-in. His reasons seem to have merit, as these goalies didn't just not get moved the Sabres, they didn't go ANYWHERE). It's not that I think he's good or anything, or doesn't deserve criticism. This situation just feels more like Joe Sakic circa 2016-17 than it does Bad Sabres GM circa 21st century

 

 

Fleury was a guy I forgot about, I feel like the story on his availability always flip flopped by the day. How "available" was he really, because they certainly don't want to trade him right now.

And Adams brought in some big components of that roster. I don’t really see why Adams should get a pass for bringing in two players he *thought* would be good. 

I don’t really see the aversion to calling a spade a spade here - he did not assemble a successful roster. He assembled a roster and kept them paired with a coaching staff that is sitting at the very bottom of the league. He was wrong about Hutton being good enough to be an opening night starter. Hutton started the season for us. 

The fact that there are mitigating factors don’t make his output any less bad, it just makes it more understandable. Saying he did a poor job isn’t me saying he needs to face consequences. He certainly needs to be much better, if he’s steering the ship 

[calti]

keep eichel and trade everyone else

[Thorner]

17 minutes ago, Derrico said:

Well put Thorny.  You explained it a lot better then I did.

 

My point was also that Adams atleast tried bringing in a 2C and signed one of the biggest free agent wingers.  Yes we all see right now they are still scoring at historically low rates.  Based on the on paper lineup I think they are massively underperforming which falls on coaching.  Goaltending was an obvious weakness going in and the numbers are very similar to what we could expect, which is not nearly good enough.  So although the scoring and play outside of goaltending is also killing this team, my major concern is Adams ought to have made upgrading his goaltending the highest priority. 

 

@Randall Flagg - if Arizona is asking for too much then move on to someone else.  There are 29 other teams with starters, backups and prospects.  I’m not suggesting overpaying for a mediocre goalie but as you suggested go down the Gibson road or someone equivalent where it is worth moving someone of value for.  This team will not come close to sniffing the playoffs until goaltending is addressed and I still stand by it.  Thankfully Hutton is done after this year but the problem still doesn’t change this summer.  The exact same elephant in the room remains and goaltending will still need to be addressed.  This is a major red flag for Adams IMO. 

Believe it or not this actually goes a long way with me. Like I said, it doesn’t make the output less objectively ineffective, but the fact he seems to be making winning the plan for right now gives me some level of satisfaction. I’ve spoken before about them not prioritizing the immediate enough. 

It’s why I’m not saying things like he needs to be fired or whatever. I’d like so see something more from him soon 

It took me a long time to become disappointed with Staal simply because having a 2C, at all, even a woefully ineffective one, still somehow felt better than Botterill literally never acquiring centres 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And Adams brought in some big components of that roster. I don’t really see why Adams should get a pass for bringing in two players he *thought* would be good. 

I don’t really see the aversion to calling a spade a spade here - he did not assemble a successful roster. He assembled a roster and kept them paired with a coaching staff that is sitting at the very bottom of the league. He was wrong about Hutton being good enough to be an opening night starter. Hutton started the season for us. 

The fact that there are mitigating factors don’t make his output any less bad, it just makes it more understandable. Saying he did a poor job isn’t me saying he needs to face consequences. He certainly needs to be much better, if he’s steering the ship 

Maybe in the next six months, the narrative becomes that Adams gave conventional, mainstream Sabres wisdom one last shot (Hall is good, Staal was good just 5 months ago, guys like the coach, we don't have money anyway, I trust Ullmark to stay healthy enough to not sell the house for his backup in a stagnant market) and got a 25 game taste of just how rotten things have become before embarking on the quickest addressing of a midseason meltdown we've seen in a long time (firing a coach during the actual season with real options available rather than waiting until everyone and their mother has been hired elsewhere), and pulls out a Sakic-like revival. 

 

[Thorner]

19 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Maybe in the next six months, the narrative becomes that Adams gave conventional, mainstream Sabres wisdom one last shot (Hall is good, Staal was good just 5 months ago, guys like the coach, we don't have money anyway, I trust Ullmark to stay healthy enough to not sell the house for his backup in a stagnant market) and got a 25 game taste of just how rotten things have become before embarking on the quickest addressing of a midseason meltdown we've seen in a long time (firing a coach during the actual season with real options available rather than waiting until everyone and their mother has been hired elsewhere), and pulls out a Sakic-like revival. 

 

I can get on board with a hope for all of that. 

But I just can’t budge on the goalie issue haha.

The backup was *always* going to be very important this year regardless of confidence in Ullmark, who notably does have an injury history. He expected to contend for the playoffs and he thought Hutton would be capable of playing a back up role on that team, and he was wrong 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can get on board with a hope for all of that. 

But I just can’t budge on the goalie issue haha.

The backup was *always* going to be very important this year regardless of confidence in Ullmark, who notably does have an injury history. He expected to contend for the playoffs and he thought Hutton would be capable of playing a back up role on that team, and he was wrong 

I don't think the existence of a player on a team is proof that the GM believed that player capable of performing acceptably. 

I think it's entirely possible that no options he viewed as upgrades were available for a cost that wouldn't hurt the franchise more by his calculation than maintaining status quo at 2G

[Thorner]

48 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think the existence of a player on a team is proof that the GM believed that player capable of performing acceptably. 

I think it's entirely possible that no options he viewed as upgrades were available for a cost that wouldn't hurt the franchise more by his calculation than maintaining status quo at 2G

Meh. It was a bad calculation, then. Is there really a scenario where Hutton would ever be good enough to be the back up, in this season, on a playoff Sabres team? 

And if it wasn’t about making the playoffs (and if so, why the heck wasn’t it?), why sign Taylor Hall? 

I find it a pretty big stretch to use an argument that relies on there conveniently, hypothetically being no available reasonably acquirable goalie option, which is a total assumption. I’m simply pointing out that the stats show Hutton hasn’t been good. 

You want to argue it’s ok he failed the position because what matters is that he tried, that’s fine - it just doesn’t do that much for me. At best it means he judged it not worth paying for a GT because it wasn’t likely to make up the ground his roster needed. It’s not saying much for his roster outlook, then 

If he thought he could make a deal for a goaltender that could bridge the gap but balked because of a draft pick, I still disagree with his evaluation. And if the price to upgrade was something unreasonably extravagant ya don’t make the deal but that kinda goes without saying. To think deals of ONLY that variety were available seems to me both unlikely and symptomatic of a potentially creatively lacking GM 

It may come down to one’s evaluation of Hutton. I think he’s bad enough and the team noticeably let down enough around him that even some of the cheaper acquired goalies would have been welcome 

The other thing is, say the prices are just too high again this offseason, do we trot out Hutton again next season if the FAs look in another direction and are we ok with that? At some point you have to replace the guy, full stop. I’m surprised that wasn’t this year considering the aspirations. 

- - - 

But dudacek is right we honestly did discuss this all 3 times over so it’s a pretty fully realized discussion at this point 

Edited March 8, 2021 by Thorny

[irregularly irregular]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Taro is good. Spending time away from SS for Lent, will be back.

Giving up the Sabres for Lent. 

Damn, why didn't I think of that!

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, pi2000 said:

With each passing hour, the KA presser is sounding more and more hyperbolic. 

Wednesday must be the day.  The hard part is cheering for them to beat Philly ... which I certainly will.   But another loss is one step closer to the inevitable.  
 

Remember when Lindy had that job forever?  

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Carter Hutton is certainly bad, but what guys like Liger were posting just a week or so ago suggested that even if the Sabres had average goaltending, the other factors of their game (namely 5v5 scoring) were such a problem that it wouldn't have made a meaningful difference on our season.

With this in mind, if Arizona decided "well, I'll just keep Raanta" then would it really have been prudent for Adams to say "wait, how about this, I'll upgrade this pick to a 1st rounder in 2021 with no protections!" or something? I really don't think it would have, IF we are presuming that the things I've read are true. In this circumstance, given all of the stipulations about this specific offseason I outline above, I'm less inclined to be down on Adams' addressing of goaltending in October of 2020 compared to, say, what Jason did to the center spine in the summer of 2018, or even Jason bringing those same goalies back in a normal offseason (2019)

Trading draft picks for a goalie.  Sure we need one.  
 

Once upon a time the Sabres drafted goaltenders that could play in this league.  Several were fantastic. 
 

When will Uka and Portillo be ready?  

[pi2000]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Meh. It was a bad calculation, then. Is there really a scenario where Hutton would ever be good enough to be the back up, in this season, on a playoff Sabres team? 

And if it wasn’t about making the playoffs (and if so, why the heck wasn’t it?), why sign Taylor Hall? 

I find it a pretty big stretch to use an argument that relies on there conveniently, hypothetically being no available reasonably acquirable goalie option, which is a total assumption. I’m simply pointing out that the stats show Hutton hasn’t been good. 

You want to argue it’s ok he failed the position because what matters is that he tried, that’s fine - it just doesn’t do that much for me. At best it means he judged it not worth paying for a GT because it wasn’t likely to make up the ground his roster needed. It’s not saying much for his roster outlook, then 

If he thought he could make a deal for a goaltender that could bridge the gap but balked because of a draft pick, I still disagree with his evaluation. And if the price to upgrade was something unreasonably extravagant ya don’t make the deal but that kinda goes without saying. To think deals of ONLY that variety were available seems to me both unlikely and symptomatic of a potentially creatively lacking GM 

It may come down to one’s evaluation of Hutton. I think he’s bad enough and the team noticeably let down enough around him that even some of the cheaper acquired goalies would have been welcome 

The other thing is, say the prices are just too high again this offseason, do we trot out Hutton again next season if the FAs look in another direction and are we ok with that? At some point you have to replace the guy, full stop. I’m surprised that wasn’t this year considering the aspirations. 

- - - 

But dudacek is right we honestly did discuss this all 3 times over so it’s a pretty fully realized discussion at this point 

There was a bunch of goalie movement this past offseason and we all assumed it was a forgone conclusion they would replace Hutton with somebody available, Murray, Allen, Fluery, etc...

Now their hands are tied and they'll need to overpay, if he sticks around instead of giving up futures, then fine, but you'll need to endure some suffering because you got dummied in the offseason. 

They're not making the playoffs, so the smart move is probably just to pack it in and ride it out. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 3/5/2021 at 5:18 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

How is RK still the coach?  How much rope can there possibly be left?  If he is aware of the issues why hasn't he acted to replace RK, get a goalie or anything else.  Sounds to me like a simple placate the masses press conference and then do nothing.  Simply more BS.

 

On 3/5/2021 at 5:21 PM, dudacek said:

I don't think this quote ^^^ is going to age well.

Nobody wants to hear this, but Adams has employed Krueger as his coach for exactly 21 games, and part of that time Krueger had COVID.

Well RK is still here.  The team was 0 for the road trip and got blown out two games.  As I said then, I'll say again, KA placated us and the media and is planning to do nothing.  I hope I'm wrong, but it's becoming abundantly clear that KA lied to us and he has no power to fire RK. RK is TP & KP's guy and they won't spend the money to replace him regardless of how much damage it does to the franchise and the team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So far so good.  My quote is aging just fine.  Another set of shut out losses.  6 shutouts for the season already.  10 days since the BS press conference and Rasputin is still the coach.  

KA should either fire the guy or announce that Rasputin is the coach for the rest of this season.  State that the team for financial reasons is sticking with the staff as is and will reassess in the off-season.  That is at least honest.  This "evaluation" period is pure BS.  What's left to evaluate?  What was left to evaluate 10 days ago? Time for real honesty.

[dudacek]

42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So far so good.  My quote is aging just fine.  Another set of shut out losses.  6 shutouts for the season already.  10 days since the BS press conference and Rasputin is still the coach.  

KA should either fire the guy or announce that Rasputin is the coach for the rest of this season.  State that the team for financial reasons is sticking with the staff as is and will reassess in the off-season.  That is at least honest.  This "evaluation" period is pure BS.  What's left to evaluate?  What was left to evaluate 10 days ago? Time for real honesty.

It sure is.