2021 Buffalo Bills

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just now, Hoss said:

If there’s remote interest in him as a starter he walks after this season.

That's fine.  The Bills need to go for it this year.  This guy helps in that.  If he leaves for nothing after this season so be it.

[Hoss]

Just now, New Scotland (NS) said:

That's fine.  The Bills need to go for it this year.  This guy helps in that.  If he leaves for nothing after this season so be it.

The Bills do need to go for it this year and Trubisky is a very marginal contributor to “it.” Beane would take the first. He’d laugh if he read this thread.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, tom webster said:

The cap is going to explode and getting their stars signed long term before will allow the present contenders to extend their window. Rookie contracts, while always beneficial, will not have the same importance as they have had in the past.

No doubt that the cap will go up. But so will player salaries that will absorb that increase. Building a team while the team has a high performing qb on a rookie contract is essential. Once that rookie qb contract runs out and is replaced with an exorbitant second contract tough personnel decisions will still have to be made. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

2 minutes ago, Hoss said:

The Bills do need to go for it this year and Trubisky is a very marginal contributor to “it.” Beane would take the first. He’d laugh if he read this thread.

He may not contribute very much at all.  He is the insurance policy if Josh goes down for more than a game.  I agree that 99.9999999% of the time Beane would take the first and not even think about it.  This year is, IMHO, that 0.0000001% of the time.

Anyway, it's not a debate to get worked up about, as there is no way any team is offering a 1st for this guy.

[tom webster]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

No doubt that the cap will go up. But so will player salaries that will absorb that increase. Building a team while the team has a high performing qb on a rookie contract is essential. Once that rookie qb contract runs out and is replaced with an exorbitant second contract tough personnel decisions will still have to be made. 

My point is that the Bills will have most of the important positions locked up at below market contracts. CB1, QB1, MLB, WR1 could all be under long term contracts before the cap skyrockets. Value contracts are always helpful but there will be a 3 to 4 year period of adjustment and smart contenders will take advantage to extend their window.

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

My point is that the Bills will have most of the important positions locked up at below market contracts. CB1, QB1, MLB, WR1 could all be under long term contracts before the cap skyrockets. Value contracts are always helpful but there will be a 3 to 4 year period of adjustment and smart contenders will take advantage to extend their window.

I agree with you that well run organizations smartly manage their caps. But as you noted once the adjustment period runs its course contracts in general will increase proportionally with the increase in the cap. That was my point.  

[Hoss]

8 minutes ago, tom webster said:

My point is that the Bills will have most of the important positions locked up at below market contracts. CB1, QB1, MLB, WR1 could all be under long term contracts before the cap skyrockets. Value contracts are always helpful but there will be a 3 to 4 year period of adjustment and smart contenders will take advantage to extend their window.

WR1 will be getting a new contract after this year and they don’t have their MLB locked up under contract - he’s due for an extension. Those are the last two current contracts to get set. Eventually they’ll (ideally) be adding to the offensive line.

They’ll need good players on rookie deals. Every good team has and that’s not going to change.

[JujuFish]

17 hours ago, Taro T said:

You OK with Webb or some scrub off other teams' cut lists costing the Bills the bye this year?  Because whether they'd've done better w/ Trubitsky or not, going 2-2 and getting beat out by KC by a single game or tie-breaker & that WILL be the narrative.

When you're close, go for it.  Don't hedge to the future.

I don't care about seeding. Never really have.  Get to the playoffs.  Then win.

[JujuFish]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes he’ll probably be here one year  but we are trying to win it all this year. Getting Mitch is part of that strategy.  He was brought in as insurance for Allen so that we can winning in case, G-d forbid, Allen gets hurt.  It’s especially important for running/mobile QBs.

Don’t forget we’ll be much tighter to the cap when Allen’s contract kicks in next season.  This is the window to win it all.

If this is the window to win it all, then why even bother signing Allen?  Just use up the rest of his rookie contract and shrug, "Welp, our window is done. Oh well."

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

WR1 will be getting a new contract after this year and they don’t have their MLB locked up under contract - he’s due for an extension. Those are the last two current contracts to get set. Eventually they’ll (ideally) be adding to the offensive line.

They’ll need good players on rookie deals. Every good team has and that’s not going to change.

I’m not sure what is lately but you seem to reply to what you think I said rather then what I said. MLB and WR1 will be locked up before cap explosion. I also said that value contracts are always helpful.

The main point, however, is that their window will be extended and good rookie deals will be less important during the adjustment period. Tampa has already proven you can not only win the Super Bowl but also retain your entire starting roster without a QB on a rookie deal by pushing money two and three years down the road when the true cap increases exponentially.

[stinky finger]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes he’ll probably be here one year  but we are trying to win it all this year. Getting Mitch is part of that strategy.  He was brought in as insurance for Allen so that we can winning in case, G-d forbid, Allen gets hurt.  It’s especially important for running/mobile QBs.

Don’t forget we’ll be much tighter to the cap when Allen’s contract kicks in next season.  This is the window to win it all.

When we acquired MT, my first thought was Beane would flip him to someone desperate enough before the season started. 

Plus, if he's that valuable then maybe we should consider extending his stay. THAT would be strategy. Of course, I suspect Mitch has his eyes set on a starting gig.

I think we can agree MT is the crown jewel of back ups. 

The more I think of it, attempt to lock him up or trade for a 1st (which I would require) if some team came asking.

2 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

That's fine.  The Bills need to go for it this year.  This guy helps in that.  If he leaves for nothing after this season so be it.

No help if he doesn't play. Trading him means we're not going for it? 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

3 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

When we acquired MT, my first thought was Beane would flip him to someone desperate enough before the season started. 

Plus, if he's that valuable then maybe we should consider extending his stay. THAT would be strategy. Of course, I suspect Mitch has his eyes set on a starting gig.

I think we can agree MT is the crown jewel of back ups. 

The more I think of it, attempt to lock him up or trade for a 1st (which I would require) if some team came asking.

No help if he doesn't play. Trading him means we're not going for it? 

To the bold ...

He is the insurance policy.  Frank to Jim.  He will most liley play.  Josh will miss some time.  The Bills will be going for it this year regardless of trading him.  They will have an easier time going for it this year if they do not trade him.

[JujuFish]

11 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

Plus, if he's that valuable then maybe we should consider extending his stay. THAT would be strategy.

I'd be happy keeping him around if he's fine being relegated to backup on a *fingers crossed* perennial contender. He presumably has his eyes set on being a starter somewhere.

[Eleven]

This isn't hockey.  We can't worry about whether he walks at the end of the season.  (And the Bills didn't give up anything for him anyway.)  He's part of the 2021 team and we can worry later about whether he is on the 2022 team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, JujuFish said:

If this is the window to win it all, then why even bother signing Allen?  Just use up the rest of his rookie contract and shrug, "Welp, our window is done. Oh well."

This doesn't mean it's our only shot with Allen at QB, but it is the last year with Allen not taking a huge piece of the cap.  

When the Falcons paid Jones and Ryan, their flexibility to retain their top D disappeared and so did the team.  KC is now struggling to keep everyone now that Mahomes' deal has kicked in.  KC's window isn't closed, but things have gotten much much harder.  

[stinky finger]

51 minutes ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

To the bold ...

He is the insurance policy.  Frank to Jim.  He will most liley play.  Josh will miss some time.  The Bills will be going for it this year regardless of trading him.  They will have an easier time going for it this year if they do not trade him.

Josh WILL miss time? 

If this is the assumption every year then I strongly suggest we attempt to lock up MT as I mentioned. 

 

[stinky finger]

52 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

I'd be happy keeping him around if he's fine being relegated to backup on a *fingers crossed* perennial contender. He presumably has his eyes set on being a starter somewhere.

If he's open to this, which I doubt, we'd be fortunate to have his services longer term. One year? I'll roll the dice and acquire the first if offered.

[Eleven]

6 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

Josh WILL miss time? 

If this is the assumption every year then I strongly suggest we attempt to lock up MT as I mentioned. 

 

I don't think he wants to be locked up.  I think he wants to be a starter somewhere next year, and I also think he will be a starter somewhere next year.

[stinky finger]

Just now, Eleven said:

I don't think he wants to be locked up.  I think he wants to be a starter somewhere next year, and I also think he will be a starter somewhere next year.

No argument here. Completely agree. 

The question is, would you trade him now if offered a 1st?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

39 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

Josh WILL miss time? 

If this is the assumption every year then I strongly suggest we attempt to lock up MT as I mentioned. 

 

Everyone misses time, so I expect Josh will.  Maybe he won't, but it doesn't matter.  We can worry about his contract for next year after this year.  I would like to sign him long-term.

32 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

If he's open to this, which I doubt, we'd be fortunate to have his services longer term. One year? I'll roll the dice and acquire the first if offered.

I agree that he probably does not want to be playing behind Josh long-term.  Some team will sign him to be the starter.  This year, this year is the year that the Bills have the best of both worlds ... an excellent starter and a back-up that would be a starter on many teams.  I would not trade him even for a first.  The time is now.  No futures this year.  This year is the year.

32 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't think he wants to be locked up.  I think he wants to be a starter somewhere next year, and I also think he will be a starter somewhere next year.

I agree.  That is why the Bills need to keep him this season.  He is likely gone after the season.  The Bills need to go all in this year.

30 minutes ago, Leaf Blower said:

No argument here. Completely agree. 

The question is, would you trade him now if offered a 1st?

No.  I would not trade him for a first.

Edited August 22, 2021 by New Scotland (NS)
more goodly typing ... I think

[triumph_communes]

I’d trade him for a top cornerback or tight end. Not for a pick, though a 1st is silly talk and is enticing.  Allen is too much of a hero to not have a backup for. Webb and Fromm suck

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

I don't think he wants to be locked up.  I think he wants to be a starter somewhere next year, and I also think he will be a starter somewhere next year.

If he can refurbish his career Washington would be a good landing spot for him. They are building up the roster and keeping their eyes out for an opportunity to bring in a long term franchise qb. Washington had their eyes on Stafford this offseason but the price got too rich for them. 

[Hoss]

3 hours ago, tom webster said:

I’m not sure what is lately but you seem to reply to what you think I said rather then what I said. MLB and WR1 will be locked up before cap explosion. I also said that value contracts are always helpful.

The main point, however, is that their window will be extended and good rookie deals will be less important during the adjustment period. Tampa has already proven you can not only win the Super Bowl but also retain your entire starting roster without a QB on a rookie deal by pushing money two and three years down the road when the true cap increases exponentially.

I haven’t really responded to you so I’m not sure what the initial part is about but I did miss a key word or two there. Teams always think they’ll be smarter than the cap but rookie deals will never not be important to good teams. We can live in a fantasyland where we think that’s not true but Beane is too smart to do that.

There isn’t an executive in this league, regardless of where they are at, that would turn down a first round pick for their backup QB unless their backup is the planned future starter. Trubisky would be gone in a millisecond if it were ever offered. It won’t be. The idea that some have seen him look decent in two preseason games and have this mindset now shows we luckily have not lost the Billsyness of our fanbase despite being good for once. That’s called perseverance.

I’m not advocating for trading Mitchell. I’m glad he’s here and I’m glad he will be here through the end of the season. I’m hoping he finds a starting job somewhere after this and points back to Buffalo as a turning point for his career because that’s a good credit to have as a staff. Heck, he might be Daboll’s starting QB wherever he ends up.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Leaf Blower said:

No argument here. Completely agree. 

The question is, would you trade him now if offered a 1st?

No.

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

No.

Nonsensical 😉