2021 Buffalo Bills

[SwampD]

Just now, JujuFish said:

How about on target percentage? 24th there, too.  "I don't like numbers because they don't agree with me."

Bull. I dont like when people only post the numbers that agree with them. I would love to see what his “accuracy” rank would be if he had better receivers that actually fought for the ball. This isn’t a new topic.

Oh, and John Brown was terrible.

[FogBat]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Joe Burrow is a freaking rock star.

Let’s not forget he won a National Championship with LSU.

This is going to be an interesting 10-15 years coming up with the caliber of QBs getting drafted.

[SDS]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

There is someone who believes that.

Feel to disagree all you want.

Do you think there may be a reason why most of his receivers run their routes and then turn around in space? Do you think the lack of crossing routes and other plays that traditionally generate large YAC were just accidentally overlooked?

 

[SwampD]

21 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

Josh needs an elite WR that stretches the field, not just good route runners.  The Bills need an elite pass rusher like Bosa or Watt.  It is a tall order to find both but necessary if we are going to win a Super Bowl.  

We need a real threat at TE, as well.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, SDS said:

Feel to disagree all you want.

Do you think there may be a reason why most of his receivers run their routes and then turn around in space? Do you think the lack of crossing routes and other plays that traditionally generate large YAC were just accidentally overlooked?

 

I think that is just as much, if not more on the receivers as it is on josh. Ive said as much before, as have others here. Go read the first GDT against the Steelers.

[SDS]

20 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Bull. I dont like when people only post the numbers that agree with them. I would love to see what his “accuracy” rank would be if he had better receivers that actually fought for the ball. This isn’t a new topic.

Oh, and John Brown was terrible.

Maybe if we define things a little better. Receivers have a catch radius and the most important thing is for a quarterback to put the ball somewhere in the catch radius. Josh has gotten much better putting the ball in that radius than when he first entered the league. However, that doesn’t mean he puts it in the middle of the catch radius. He doesn’t. A large portion of his throws are in the green ring and not in the red bull’s-eye. He got better receivers who make tougher catches.

He’s much more likely to be inside the catch radius throwing of a stationary target than he is a moving target. When you throw at a moving target you’re essentially eliminating half of your radius since the difficulty of catching a ball behind you is so much greater than catching it in front of you. 

I really don’t think I’m saying anything remotely controversial. They’re calling plays that maximize his chance of success. The corollary to that is that they don’t call plays that are tough for him to make. 

[SwampD]

Ill post it again.

 

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, SDS said:

Maybe if we define things a little better. Receivers have a catch radius and the most important thing is for a quarterback to put the ball somewhere in the catch radius. Josh has gotten much better putting the ball in that radius than when he first entered the league. However, that doesn’t mean he puts it in the middle of the catch radius. He doesn’t. A large portion of his throws are in the green ring and not in the red bull’s-eye. He got better receivers who make tougher catches.

He’s much more likely to be inside the catch radius throwing of a stationary target than he is a moving target. When you throw at a moving target you’re essentially eliminating half of your radius since the difficulty of catching a ball behind you is so much greater than catching it in front of you. 

I really don’t think I’m saying anything remotely controversial. They’re calling plays that maximize his chance of success. The corollary to that is that they don’t call plays that are tough for him to make. 

The flip side of that that i have been complaining about for years now is that i still think it is the receivers’ fault, often, when those passes get dropped and it gets blamed on Josh. It’s ridiculous. Seriously. Our receivers should be catching a lot more balls than they do. They wait for them to drop perfectly into their breadbasket, giving the DBs a chance to make a play, instead of going up for them. It’s really frustrating. As good as the Bills were and are, with Josh as he is now, they could be so much better.

[Randall Flagg]

Is 69% elite? Josh had that last year. Does Josh fluctuate between elite accuracy and not-elite accuracy, or is Josh an excellent passer who has simplistic stats like completions divided by attempts fluctuate for countless reasons? 

I don't think Josh's ball placement is the best, but it's good, and probably very good. 

The bills run loads of over routes to the sidelines, and his ability to time those passes to get toe-taps just right is insane. To me, that's elite accuracy, and also hinders YAC ability, because you go right out of bounds. He also loves comeback routes, which have receivers facing and running the wrong way for YAC. It's possible that Josh's best routes just aren't conducive to YAC. He seems to hit those slants to Beasley and Diggs just fine when we run them. Beasley went down like he was shot right after the catch all year, because of the rib injury.

I'd definitely target a YAC guy somewhere and incorporate more screens and things of that nature

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Randall Flagg

[JujuFish]

10 minutes ago, SwampD said:

The flip side of that that i have been complaining about for years now is that i still think it is the receivers’ fault, often, when those passes get dropped and it gets blamed on Josh. It’s ridiculous. Seriously. Our receivers should be catching a lot more balls than they do. They wait for them to drop perfectly into their breadbasket, giving the DBs a chance to make a play, instead of going up for them. It’s really frustrating. As good as the Bills were and are, with Josh as he is now, they could be so much better.

Sigh.  I already addressed this with on-target percentage.  Still 24th in the league this year.  Josh does not have and has never had elite accuracy.  He is elite in other areas of his game, but it absolutely boggles my mind that you are arguing against this objectively true point.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, JujuFish said:

Sigh.  I already addressed this with on-target percentage.  Still 24th in the league this year.  Josh does not have and has never had elite accuracy.  He is elite in other areas of his game, but it absolutely boggles my mind that you are arguing against this objectively true point.

I asked this in September and am still waiting for an answer.

“Other than Diggs, when is the last time you saw a one of our receivers fight for the ball and take it away from a defender?“

And blow your sigh outcherazz.

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Sigh.  I already addressed this with on-target percentage.  Still 24th in the league this year.  Josh does not have and has never had elite accuracy.  He is elite in other areas of his game, but it absolutely boggles my mind that you are arguing against this objectively true point.

Point of distinction: It’s objectively true that his accuracy stats weren’t elite. 

Excellent discussion, carry on 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

Wasn't Josh's on-target percentage like top 3 or 5 in 2020? 

[SwampD]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Wasn't Josh's on-target percentage like top 3 or 5 in 2020? 

I hope so. We heard about his accuracy that year, as well

Just looked. He was 5th. One of those years he was up top, I think the Bills led the league in passes dropped or were at least near the top.

Josh Allen will be fine.

[SDS]

5 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I hope so. We heard about his accuracy that year, as well

Just looked. He was 5th. One of those years he was up top, I think the Bills led the league in passes dropped or were at least near the top.

Josh Allen will be fine.

I’m not sure what any of this means in the context of what we’re supposed to be in discussed which was yards after catch.

I assert the offense runs plays that plays to Josh’s strengths. This should not be earth shattering. Those are mainly comeback routes or those that stop and sit in-between zones. I think they actively avoid fast-moving crossing routes because he’s not good at hitting those. Unfortunately, those often turn into big gainers.

This both increases the number of passes he completes and suppresses YAC. I don’t see how the offense choosing plays that play to his strength is proving that he is good at some thing they don’t run.

[SwampD]

19 minutes ago, SDS said:

I’m not sure what any of this means in the context of what we’re supposed to be in discussed which was yards after catch.

I assert the offense runs plays that plays to Josh’s strengths. This should not be earth shattering. Those are mainly comeback routes or those that stop and sit in-between zones. I think they actively avoid fast-moving crossing routes because he’s not good at hitting those. Unfortunately, those often turn into big gainers.

This both increases the number of passes he completes and suppresses YAC. I don’t see how the offense choosing plays that play to his strength is proving that he is good at some thing they don’t run.

We’re discussing the same thing. I think they are also running plays that play to the receivers’ strengths/avoid their shortcomings, as well. I often blame our receivers for plays i see people piling on Josh about. I’ll say it again, I don’t think they do him any favors.

[inkman]

6 hours ago, SwampD said:

We’re discussing the same thing. I think they are also running plays that play to the receivers’ strengths/avoid their shortcomings, as well. I often blame our receivers for plays i see people piling on Josh about. I’ll say it again, I don’t think they do him any favors.

Nope.  Beasley might have the worst YAC in the league.  He literally falls as soon as he catches the ball.  It might be because he’s 5’7” 175 lbs.  I love Diggs but I don’t think he  is great after the catch.  They could use a guy or two with breakaway speed.  I do question the staff’s ability to evaluate talent. How on earth does Gabe Davis get relegated to 3/4th receiver?  He may have more talent than any receiver on the team.  

[JujuFish]

9 hours ago, SwampD said:

I hope so. We heard about his accuracy that year, as well

Just looked. He was 5th. One of those years he was up top, I think the Bills led the league in passes dropped or were at least near the top.

Josh Allen will be fine.

No, he was 8th. And seriously, stop conflating the fact that Allen does not have elite accuracy with Allen not being elite.  And the Bills were 19th in dropped passes last year.

[SwampD]

Just to be clear. Take the Micah Hydes interception against NE. I think that throw by Mac Jones was about as perfect a throw as an nfl receiver should expect. I think that interception was just as much Agholor‘s fault, if not more, than it was the QB’s. He just kept running, waiting for the ball to fall into his hands like a loaf of bread. Stop, go up and get the ball at its highest point or turn into a DB at that point. We hear that all the time. I always thought that that was receiving 101. I guess not, cuz our receivers suck at it., well, i don't know if they suck at it cuz we never even see them try it.

[Randall Flagg]

33 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

No, he was 8th. And seriously, stop conflating the fact that Allen does not have elite accuracy with Allen not being elite.  And the Bills were 19th in dropped passes last year.

Does this stat control for things like pressure, throwing on the run versus stationary, and the distribution of pass location and difficulty? Or do 10 pinpoint accurate screens get the same 100% rating that 10 outside shoulder bucket drops 30 yards down the field would get? To me it's pretty obvious that allen throws more difficult passes than most. I don't think allen is a top 3 or 5 most accurate qb, but I'm also not convinced we have a stat that helps me rank this in any meaningful way. 

When allen has a clean pocket and a platform he has been mind-bendingly accurate, often. The way he plays obfuscates attempts to rank and quantify this for me 

[SwampD]

Okay, one more, and then i’m done. There is one play that really sticks in my craw about this topic. It was in the sunday night game against the Chiefs last year. Josh gets flushed out of the pocket (shocker) scrambles to his right, then comes around to his left and is running away from pressure. John Brown runs a yard past the sticks and does an inside curl, puts his hans in front of him to get the ball. He had to move his hands literally 2 inches to his left to make contact with the ball. It hits his hands and he drops it.

I come on here and read things like, that’s a throw josh has to make! I thought my head was going to explode, cuz all I’m thinking is that that is a catch JB has to make. It would have been a first down, too.

Josh is extraordinary. Our receivers are JAGs.

[JujuFish]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Josh is extraordinary. Our receivers are JAGs.

Only one of these things is true.

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think allen is a top 3 or 5 most accurate qb,

Then we're agreeing with each other.

[Thwomp!]

Another problem with blowing the game against the Chiefs.  We're now going to have to deal with the Bengals, who may be better than us already.

[That Aud Smell]

7 hours ago, inkman said:

I do question the staff’s ability to evaluate talent. How on earth does Gabe Davis get relegated to 3/4th receiver?  He may have more talent than any receiver on the team.  

Ehhhh. 

I think you're getting it twisted. Davis showed out and balled out like he did in the divisional round precisely because Diggs is so good (and therefore commands so much attention). Diggs' route running abilities are effing bonkers.

 

[Buffalonill]

3 hours ago, Thwomp! said:

Another problem with blowing the game against the Chiefs.  We're now going to have to deal with the Bengals, who may be better than us already.

Buffalo would have beat the Bengals  easily.