Is There a Path Forward for Eichel and the Sabres?

[Thorner]

To think it’s impossible to turn this around w/Jack is simply a mark of growing so accustomed to such incompetence. We tear them all to shreds yet act like simply competent management wouldn’t make a world of difference. 

It’s not this hard. We’ve just made it look hard. 

We can’t become desensitized to how bad we’ve been. How weirdly incompetent. It’s easy for me to compare a hypothetical “why not? Haven’t won with him!” argument for trading Jack Eichel, even with its much greater sample size, to the “last place with him!” argument for trading ROR. The reason I can do this is because part of the legendary incompetence of the Buffalo Sabres includes duration. It’s a functional part of the awe of our ineptitude. We’ve failed Jack for his entire time in Buffalo. 

Don’t move him unless you absolutely cannot keep him. This is an MVP level player, we’ve seen it. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

To think it’s impossible to turn this around w/Jack is simply a mark of growing so accustomed to such incompetence. We tear them all to shreds yet act like simply competent management wouldn’t make a world of difference. 

It’s not this hard. We’ve just made it look hard. 

We can’t become desensitized to how bad we’ve been. How weirdly incompetent. It’s easy for me to compare a hypothetical “why not? Haven’t won with him!” argument for trading Jack Eichel, even with its much greater sample size, to the “last place with him!” argument for trading ROR. The reason I can do this is because part of the legendary incompetence of the Buffalo Sabres includes duration. It’s a functional part of the awe of our ineptitude. We’ve failed Jack for his entire time in Buffalo. 

Don’t move him unless you absolutely cannot keep him. 

The timeframe for turning this around likely precludes keeping him.  If he truly has reached apathy now, what state will he have achieved in 2 more seasons while mgt continues to mold the team?  Downright hostility?

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, Weave said:

The timeframe for turning this around likely precludes keeping him.  If he truly has reached apathy now, what state will he have achieved in 2 more seasons while mgt continues to mold the team?  Downright hostility?

This is exactly what I’m talking about though. It doesn’t need to be a damn process. 

A good GM and coach could come in here and ignite a run, THIS season, where in a normal division would have us on a stretch like in 2011. Last to playoffs. I believe it.

We are conditioned to think these things take a ton of time. Don’t forget the unusualness of our ineptitude. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[LTS]

If a player doesn't want to be here, then we should get rid of him.  This organization has made changes to try and please him and it's not worked.  Perhaps they are not the right changes, but he appeared to be on board with them.

He's done and he wants out.  I wouldn't want to play for a teammate like that.  As a fan I root for the Sabres first and the players second.  If a player doesn't want to be here then I want them gone. I've never been a huge Eichel fan anyway. Until last season he never seemed to be the guy who was going to deliver and was prone to taking shifts off and gliding around the ice.

I'm in favor of moving on from the coach and Eichel and anyone else who wants out.

[inkman]

My 75 year old coworker, whom I’ve never spoken to about the Sabres, just called Jack a *****.  I chose not to engage his level of stupidity.  

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

To think it’s impossible to turn this around w/Jack is simply a mark of growing so accustomed to such incompetence. We tear them all to shreds yet act like simply competent management wouldn’t make a world of difference.

I'm not blaming Jack Eichel for the state of the franchise, just offering what I see.

I think the Jack we see today is a creation of the incompetence of the franchise. But I also think this season he's somehow returned the favour.

I can hammer Adams for not acquiring a goalie, but the bottom line is he tried harder than any GM since Tim Murray to improve the roster for this season. And long-suffering players like McCabe, and Risto and Reinhart and Ullmark saw that, and responded by playing their ***** off.

The captain did not.

And within a few weeks the team has bought in to what Jack has been selling.

There is too much under the bridge. Mommy and Daddy are good people, they're just not good together anymore.

It feels like it's over.

Edited March 2, 2021 by dudacek

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm not blaming Jack Eichel for the state of the franchise, just offering what I see.

I think the Jack we see today is a creation of the incompetence of the franchise. But I also think this season he's somehow returned the favour.

I can hammer Adams for not acquiring a goalie, but the bottom line is he tried harder than any GM since Tim Murray to improve the roster for this season. And long-suffering players like McCabe, and Risto and Reinhart and Ullmark saw that, and responded by playing their ***** off.

The captain did not.

And within a few weeks the team has bought in to what Jack has been selling.

There is too much under the bridge. Mommy and Daddy are good people, they're just not good together anymore.

It feels like it's over.

This encapsulates how I feel.

[nfreeman]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm not blaming Jack Eichel for the state of the franchise, just offering what I see.

I think the Jack we see today is a creation of the incompetence of the franchise. But I also think this season he's somehow returned the favour.

I can hammer Adams for not acquiring a goalie, but the bottom line is he tried harder than any GM since Tim Murray to improve the roster for this season. And long-suffering players like McCabe, and Risto and Reinhart and Ullmark saw that, and responded by playing their ***** off.

The captain did not.

And within a few weeks the team has bought in to what Jack has been selling.

There is too much under the bridge. Mommy and Daddy are good people, they're just not good together anymore.

It feels like it's over.

This has the cold ring of truth.

I sure hope it is somehow not the case though.

[Stoner]

I recall one of the BBGs (I think) where Kim told a story about getting through a rough stretch of Sabres hockey and remembering that her husband said something like, "It's OK, we still have Jack." I bet Terry will be a hard sell on pulling the trigger. Folks should also remember Perreault wanted out circa 1978 after several frustrating playoff ousters.

[Drag0nDan]

10 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I recall one of the BBGs (I think) where Kim told a story about getting through a rough stretch of Sabres hockey and remembering that her husband said something like, "It's OK, we still have Jack." I bet Terry will be a hard sell on pulling the trigger. Folks should also remember Perreault wanted out circa 1978 after several frustrating playoff ousters.

Yeah - the owner has final say so on trading the franchise player.  I don't think anyone wants to trade him either.  

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I'm not blaming Jack Eichel for the state of the franchise, just offering what I see.

I think the Jack we see today is a creation of the incompetence of the franchise. But I also think this season he's somehow returned the favour.

I can hammer Adams for not acquiring a goalie, but the bottom line is he tried harder than any GM since Tim Murray to improve the roster for this season. And long-suffering players like McCabe, and Risto and Reinhart and Ullmark saw that, and responded by playing their ***** off.

The captain did not.

And within a few weeks the team has bought in to what Jack has been selling.

There is too much under the bridge. Mommy and Daddy are good people, they're just not good together anymore.

It feels like it's over.

He still didn't make the team around him good enough. Hall apparently isn't that good of an addition. Bottom 6 a weakness. No real 2C. LHD/RHD imbalance, and the goalie. And most importantly, employing the coach that is destroying it all. 

Unless you think with a full strength Jack this is a playoff team this year in this division, with this coach, it's still a situation where Jack is being let down, and therefore I still see a potential scenario where his attitude changes because the franchise starts doing right by him.

Some of you guys went from laughing at the downward nature of the board 10 games ago to saying it feels like it's over. 

It's not over, we just need the Pegulas to hire actual experienced professionals. Trading Jack isn't going to fix that larger issue, the issue that made him so downtrodden in the first place. 

They'd still be scapegoating him. 

He's a 24 year old kid not some downtrodden old man. He can change his attitude real quick. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

He still didn't make the team around him good enough.

Again, compare his approach out of the gate to that of other longtime vets like Sam, Risto, Jake and Linus.

Jack seemingly* entered the season having already decided the team wasn't good enough, and that is not acceptable from your captain, whether it's justified or not.

*(it's absolutely possible other things were affecting his play)

***

Also, the play of the bottom six has not been this team's weakness at all, our top six is very clearly our weakness

 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Again, compare his approach out of the gate to that of other longtime vets like Sam, Risto, Jake and Linus.

Jack seemingly* entered the season having already decided the team wasn't good enough, and that is not acceptable from your captain, whether it's justified or not.

*(it's absolutely possible other things were affecting his play)

***

Also, the play of the bottom six has not been this team's weakness at all, our top six is very clearly our weakness

 

I thought he was hurt? That was the stance before the board had given up. 

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Again, compare his approach out of the gate to that of other longtime vets like Sam, Risto, Jake and Linus.

Jack seemingly* entered the season having already decided the team wasn't good enough, and that is not acceptable from your captain, whether it's justified or not.

*(it's absolutely possible other things were affecting his play)

***

Also, the play of the bottom six has not been this team's weakness at all, our top six is very clearly our weakness

 

It's both. The bottom 6 is statistically terrible.

"very clearly". Stop.

The bottom 6 is bad, too, that's backed up by the stats. 

- - - 

Jack probably gets fed up so quickly because he sees them bring in a GM with NO HIRING PROCESS and is frustrated by a coach who isn't actually a coach. Again, unusual ineptitude. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Bottom 6 is freaking terrible

- - - 

We have a tendency to try and narrow it down to one issue, but the truth is there are a multitude across the board, and I maintain my view that when there are that many people to point to, it's indicative of the biggest problem being right at the very top. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Bottom 6 is freaking terrible

 

To be more precise, pretty everyone except Ullmark and maybe Reinhart has been mediocre to terrible post-COVID.

Let's put the analytics aside for a moment and talk about simple goals for and against, and expectations, over the season. For the purposes of this discussion, I've defined top 6 as the guys you expect to score, and bottom six as the guys you don't, and left out Cozens as a guy who could arguably fit with either group and doesn't really have a huge impact on the numbers.

• Personally, I'd expect Asplund, Eakin, Okposo, Sheahan, Lazar and Reider to have combined for 10-12 goals by now while holding their own five-on-five.
• Not counting the PP, they have 11 goals and have, collectively,  been outscored by 15 goals. They are on the ice about 19 ES minutes a game.
• Personally, I'd expect Eichel, Hall, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson and Staal to have combined for 30-35 goals by now while holding their own five-on-five.
• Not counting the PP, they have 6 goals and have, collectively, been outscored by 52. They are on the ice about 30 ES minutes a game.

Their work on the PP partially compensates, but on the scoresheet, it is a horribly non-productive top six, not a mediocre bottom six, that is killing us.

Edited March 2, 2021 by dudacek

[Curt]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

This is exactly what I’m talking about though. It doesn’t need to be a damn process. 

A good GM and coach could come in here and ignite a run, THIS season, where in a normal division would have us on a stretch like in 2011. Last to playoffs. I believe it.

We are conditioned to think these things take a ton of time. Don’t forget the unusualness of our ineptitude. 

Personally, I acknowledge the unusualness of their ineptitude.  It is for this exact reason that I have zero confidence that they will turn this season around.  I think the players feel the same.  I think Jack feels the same.  I think Jack is just about done with this.

Its as much an emotional thing as a logical thing.  There are things they could do to improve, this season, but does anyone believe that they will correctly execute them?

[Thorner]

Just now, dudacek said:

To be more precise, pretty everyone except Ullmark and maybe Reinhart has been mediocre to terrible post-COVID.

Let's put the analytics aside for a moment and talk about simple goals for and against, and expectations, over the season. For the purposes of this discussion, I've defined top 6 as the guys you expect to score, and bottom six as the guys you don't, and left out Cozens as a guy who could arguably fit with either group and doesn't really have a huge impact on the numbers.

• Personally, I'd expect Asplund, Eakin, Okposo, Sheahan, Lazar and Reider to have combined for 10-12 goals by now while holding their own five-on-five.
• Not counting the PP, they have 11 goals and have, collectively,  been outscored by 15 goals. They are on the ice about 19 ES minutes a game.
• Personally, I'd expect Eichel, Hall, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson and Staal to have combined for 30-35 goals by now while holding their own five-on-five.
• Not counting the PP, they have 6 goals and are collectively, have been outscored by 52. They are on the ice about 30 ES minutes a game.

Their work on the PP partially compensates, but on the scoresheet, it is a horrible top six, not a mediocre bottom six, that is killing us.

And we know coaching has a massive impact on that top 6.

Look, of course the top 6 has been bad. And producing less relative to expectation (but also are getting the oddest results relative to expected, too, but we don’t even need to get into that). 

But this whole thing is like....ehhhh - Jack has been performing *above* expectation for years given the joke of a roster we’ve assembled around him - and everyone admits that - and it’s like... nineteen (19) games where he finally looks disinterested somewhat, where he *very well could be injured* and at the very least was out of shape due to a documented injury entering camp..and now it’s “it’s over. Kid’s done here forever. Trade him.”

Big meh. That’s a “common, man!” from where I stand. 

[Thorner]

While the current management group is in place this shouldn’t even be a question, I would think. The hardest type of trade to pull off at the best of times, the organization that has depreciated nearly every asset and transaction it has touched for a decade is most assuredly going to downgrade Jack. 

This came up first when I typed in Eichel to google. Teams aren’t going to give us what we’d need anyways. We’ve hurt his value. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

While the current management group is in place this shouldn’t even be a question, I would think. The hardest type of trade to pull off at the best of times, the organization that’s depreciated nearly every asset and move it has touched for a decade is most assuredly going to downgrade Jack. 

I don’t necessarily think it’s a good idea to trade Eichel.  I don’t necessarily think it will help the team.  I don’t necessarily think that the Sabres would do a good job of it.

I just think that at some point in the next ~year, they won’t have a choice.

I hope I’m wrong.  I hope the Sabres do smart things, win more games, and Jack wants to stay.  I just don’t have any confidence that they will do enough things right to make it happen.

[mjd1001]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

While the current management group is in place this shouldn’t even be a question, I would think. The hardest type of trade to pull off at the best of times, the organization that has depreciated nearly every asset and transaction it has touched for a decade is most assuredly going to downgrade Jack. 

This came up first when I typed in Eichel to google. Teams aren’t going to give us what we’d need anyways. We’ve hurt his value. 

The thing is..that is the opinion of fans and writers.  Put Eichel out there to the highest bidder, and you may find some GMs willing to part with assets that the local sportswriters or fans don't think they should.

The Bruins don't want to part with McAvoy or Pastrnak?  Awwww, that too bad..then you don't get your home-town boy back from the Sabres..and the Sabres proceed to go down the list of other teams offers for someone who wants him more...and the Bruins are out of luck.

Edited March 2, 2021 by mjd1001

[Thorner]

14 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t necessarily think it’s a good idea to trade Eichel.  I don’t necessarily think it will help the team.  I don’t necessarily think that the Sabres would do a good job of it.

I just think that at some point in the next ~year, they won’t have a choice.

I hope I’m wrong.  I hope the Sabres do smart things, win more games, and Jack wants to stay.  I just don’t have any confidence that they will do enough things right to make it happen.

It would also be unthinkable to trade Jack this year, in a year the North division scores 10 goals a game inflating the stat curve, after Jack spends the year under, even if you don’t think bad, an offensively suffocating system, with the cherry on top being he may be hurt. Trading him during/after this year would be laughable. 

You could make the argument we’d be more limited in any potential Eichel deal by trading him now due to his current production and the surrounding optics then we would be by having to tip toe around his NMC

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

Give him a competent coach next season and make sure the real Jack is still there. And if he still isn’t playing well, deal him then. 

I don’t think the opportunity cost of declining to “get out in front” of a more limiting potential trade request is near worth sacrificing the opportunity cost of the very real possibility Jack looks like himself again under a guy who’s actually a hockey coach. 

We should be thinking about ways to prevent the trade request from happening rather than resigning ourselves to its inevitability and probably creating a self fulfilling prophecy in the process. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You could make the argument we’d be more limited in any potential Eichel deal by trading him now due to his current production and the surrounding optics then we would be by having to tip toe around his NMC

 

I think that even if he finishes the year with 10 goals and 40 points, GMs around the league will still consider him JACK EICHEL, top 10 talent, and enough of them will bid accordingly.

I also don't buy the Krueger excuse. Jack likes Krueger, just had his best season ever under Krueger, and won't get better deployment than what Krueger gives him.

My whole premise is that if you wait another year of mopey Jack, the number of all-in bidders shrinks, Jack's power to turn this into a Rick Nash situation grows, and you put off the possibility a good Buffalo Sabres team by yet another year.

I agree with your case based on the premise Jack's soul can be saved in Buffalo. I'm just not sure I buy that premise, and I am sure the return will be better in the next six months than it will be by waiting another year.

Check the market. See what kind of return is available. Don't be afraid of an aggressive move.

Don't go Botterilling the whole situation by waiting for a train that never comes.

 

Edited March 2, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think that even if he finishes the year with 10 goals and 40 points, GMs around the league will still consider him JACK EICHEL, top 10 talent, and enough of them will bid accordingly.

I also don't buy the Krueger excuse. Jack likes Krueger, just had his best season ever under Krueger, and won't get better deployment than what Krueger gives him.

My whole premise is that if you wait another year of mopey Jack, the number of all-in bidders shrinks, Jack's power to turn this into a Rick Nash situation grows, and you put off the possibility a good Buffalo Sabres team by yet another year.

I agree with your case based on the premise Jack's soul can be saved in Buffalo. I'm just not sure I buy that premise, and I am sure the return will be better in the next six months than it will be by waiting another year.

Check the market. See what kind of return is available. Don't be afraid of an aggressive move.

Don't go Botterilling the whole situation by waiting for a train that never comes.

 

It doesn’t matter if you buy it or not - Krueger’s system is low event, all the advanced metrics document it, and the downward production of everyone on the roster demonstrates it. 

With a straight face you’ll make the argument that Jack’s “sulking” is bringing down the team, yet even if you are correct that Krueger’s system works ok for Eichel, *clearly* it doesn’t work well offensively for most everyone else.... Krueger is blameless for *directly* affecting things negatively? I know you don’t think that, didn’t seem to in your excellent break down post. 

There’s no consistency. If one man named Jack can bring down a team of 23, surely a team of 23 can bring down one man. And Krueger’s system is bringing down this team, statistically, assuredly. 

Edited March 2, 2021 by Thorny

[Thorner]

On 3/1/2021 at 11:06 AM, dudacek said:

What we got: a great talker who seems to be well-liked, who has completely neutered a lot of productive offensive players and shot himself in the foot with stubborn lineup decisions.

Rid us of the Krueger poison first