Advanced Analytics says this team might be VERY good

[Stoner]

It's been said "generations" were invented by marketers.

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I'd feel better if A. Analytics was saying the Sabres might be very good in the standings eventually vs. it saying the Sabres might be very good (at the time of the post) despite a middling record.

The reason fancystats guys pay so much attention to those stats is that they are predictive of wins over the long haul. Of course that also means sustaining them over the long haul.

It's why they were down on the 10-game win streak two years ago — the underlying numbers said it was a mirage, and the underlying numbers were right.

[Trettioåtta]

There is no denying goaltending fails the eye-test as well as the stats test.

Both have consistently let in 1-2 very soft goals a game and often fail to make that big save when you need it.

[That Aud Smell]

54 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It's been said "generations" were invented by marketers.

I thought they was made by their parents.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, Weave said:

Based on these we should be clammoring for a MAF trade.

Why would be clamor for a goaltender that is marginally better than Hutton with a god awful contract? Because we have heard of him before?

[Curt]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Why would be clamor for a goaltender that is marginally better than Hutton with a god awful contract? Because we have heard of him before?

Because according to the statistics that @Weave was referencing, Fleury is performing very well.  Much better than Ullmark/Hutton.

[JohnC]

38 minutes ago, Curt said:

Because according to the statistics that @Weave was referencing, Fleury is performing very well.  Much better than Ullmark/Hutton.

Why would a serious cup contending team like Vegas trade one of their goalies and put themselves in a vulnerable position if their #1 goalie, Lehner, gets hurt? And it should be noted that MAF is outperforming the #1 goalie. (As you noted.)  With the compressed schedule it is important to have two high functioning goalies. If Vegas wasn't a serious team I could see them doing what they needed to do to move him. However, being in the competitive position that they are in it wouldn't make sense to deal him off. 

Vegas Golden Knights Stats | 2020-2021 | Vegas Golden Knights (nhl.com)

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Because according to the statistics that @Weave was referencing, Fleury is performing very well.  Much better than Ullmark/Hutton.

Yup.  Not wedded to a narrative (ick, I did that).  The stats we’re using to show our goalies are bad show MAF as performing very well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why would a serious cup contending team like Vegas trade one of their goalies and put themselves in a vulnerable position if their #1 goalie, Lehner, gets hurt? And it should be noted that MAF is outperforming the #1 goalie. (As you noted.)  With the compressed schedule it is important to have two high functioning goalies. If Vegas wasn't a serious team I could see them doing what they needed to do to move him. However, being in the competitive position that they are in it wouldn't make sense to deal him off. 

Vegas Golden Knights Stats | 2020-2021 | Vegas Golden Knights (nhl.com)

A very fair question.  They are up against the cap, need some operating space and some D depth. They were also try to trade him this off-season.

Edited January 28, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

26 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Why would a serious cup contending team like Vegas trade one of their goalies and put themselves in a vulnerable position if their #1 goalie, Lehner, gets hurt? And it should be noted that MAF is outperforming the #1 goalie. (As you noted.)  With the compressed schedule it is important to have two high functioning goalies. If Vegas wasn't a serious team I could see them doing what they needed to do to move him. However, being in the competitive position that they are in it wouldn't make sense to deal him off. 

Vegas Golden Knights Stats | 2020-2021 | Vegas Golden Knights (nhl.com)

Maybe they aren’t right now, I don’t know.  However, reports were that they were aggressively shopping him during the offseason, so I would assume they might still have some interest in the idea.

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

A very fair question.  They are up against the cap, need some operating space and some D depth. They were also try to trade him this off-season.

As @Curt and you point out it was widely reported that Vegas was aggressively trying to trade him this past offseason with the primary motivation being financial/cap considerations. I'm just pointing out that the circumstance has changed due to their team standing and also due to MAF playing so well. In my opinion it would be a mistake for them to take the risk of trading him this season because he is outplaying the #1 goalie, Lehner, and also Lehner is injury prone so there is a need for a high quality backup that would be able to keep them in the cup hunt. 

[Gatorman0519]

too early of a sample size as evidenced by tonight 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

too early of a sample size as evidenced by tonight 

Ugh, now you tell us!

[Cascade Youth]

Narrator voice:

”They were NOT very good.”

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

too early of a sample size as evidenced by tonight 

 

51 minutes ago, Cascade Youth said:

Narrator voice:

”They were NOT very good.”

We just got tossed around last night like a rag doll by a bad hockey team.  What does that say about us? This is exactly what happened last season when every moment of prosperity was soon erased by terrible play. 

It’s still early and we are hockey 500, but RK and the player leaders need to step up and change the attitude in that locker room.

It can start with an apology to the Fans and then to Ullmark.

We should lock this thread for another 12 games.  If the team ‘s record and fancy stats reflect each other (good or bad) then re-open.

Edited January 29, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

We just got tossed around last night like a rag doll by a bad hockey team.  What does that say about us? This is exactly what happened last season when every moment of prosperity was soon erased by terrible play. 

It’s still early and we are hockey 500, but RK and the player leaders need to step up and change the attitude in that locker room.

It can start with an apology to the Fans and then to Ullmark.

We should lock this thread for another 12 games.  If the team ‘s record and fancy stats reflect each other (good or bad) then re-open.

The whole point of the thread was that their fancy stats were very good, better than their record, and that they have been unlucky.

Its not like the game last night proved that wrong.  The fancy stats were as terrible as the eye test for last nights game.

[BMWR100RT]

I got a bottle of winners choice spirits on who finishes higher in the standings, Sabres or Rangers with a friend. I figured This would at least keep the season interesting.  That last game was disheartening after some optimism.

Also, many of my favorite Sabres memories involved Lindy. Let's hope for one today.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 1/29/2021 at 8:53 AM, Curt said:

The whole point of the thread was that their fancy stats were very good, better than their record, and that they have been unlucky.

Its not like the game last night proved that wrong.  The fancy stats were as terrible as the eye test for last nights game.

"The fancy stats were very good"  Talk about small sample size.  This team can't score 5 on 5 to save their lives.  My guess is that aren't that way any longer.  They don't pressure the puck, don't screen (except Risto on the PP), don't go to the net or play hard in the dirty areas.  Hard to win without doing those things.  They also don't sustain the same effort from game to game.  Not a good sign when bottom 6 guys like Rieder and Lazar have twice as many goals (6) as the 3 guys paid to score in Eichel, Skinner and Hall (3).

Lets face facts, until they put a consistent effort in game to game, this is a 500 team at best.  With Hutton in net they are a high lottery team.  

 

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

"The fancy stats were very good"  Talk about small sample size.  This team can't score 5 on 5 to save their lives.  My guess is that aren't that way any longer.  They don't pressure the puck, don't screen (except Risto on the PP), don't go to the net or play hard in the dirty areas.  Hard to win without doing those things.  They also don't sustain the same effort from game to game.  Not a good sign when bottom 6 guys like Rieder and Lazar have twice as many goals (6) as the 3 guys paid to score in Eichel, Skinner and Hall (3).

Lets face facts, until they put a consistent effort in game to game, this is a 500 team at best.  With Hutton in net they are a high lottery team.  

 

Not going to argue about it.  The advanced stats were good, I thought their play reflected that.  It was a small sample size.  They have played poorly lately, and I’m sure that the advanced stats reflect that as well.

[inkman]

Paul Hamilton just lost me for good.  Said the goaltending was the only reason they got any point and has been good.  Also squashed the notion of high danger shots as “all teams calculate them differently”.  Hey numb nuts, the analytic guys don’t work for the teams. He’s the worst.  

[Taro T]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

Not going to argue about it.  The advanced stats were good, I thought their play reflected that.  It was a small sample size.  They have played poorly lately, and I’m sure that the advanced stats reflect that as well.

The advanced stats were good and the Eakin line was a big part of that holding their own against tougher competition.  Since Okposo has been on that line, they've been getting blown up and it is carrying momentum to teams other lines as they feed off that energy.  They can't keep trying to match them up against offensive line b es if Okposo stays where he is.

The team looked different against Washington & Filly; even in that 1st game they were flat at the beginning.

The team did not play the same the last 4.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Taro T

[#freejame]

Like I’ve said, good teams have good analytics because they play good hockey, not because they formulate their game towards analytics. Teams that look for good analytical players independent of other things are dumb. Look for good players and the results will follow. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart's_law

[inkman]

On 1/28/2021 at 12:29 PM, PASabreFan said:

It's been said "generations" were invented by marketers.

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