Advanced Analytics says this team might be VERY good

[matter2003]

I know they only have 7 points right now but this team is starting to grow on me...the Eichel line seems like they could have 3 goals a night every night, they have some depth, defensively they seem a lot better than last year, the role players actually are pretty good for the most part at playing their roles and the PP has been blazing. 

I don't know if I'd predict them to make the playoffs but I get the feeling they will be right there at the end if they miss out.

Advanced Analytics says this Sabre team isn't just good, it might actually be VERY good.

5th in CF, 2nd in CF%(404 for 329 against), 3rd in FF, 4th in FF%(323 for 257 against), 6th in scoring chances for, 2nd in scoring chances for %(183 for, 132 against), 4th in high danger scoring chances, 4th in High danger scoring for %(80 for, only 48 against), 7th in xGF, 3rd in xGF%(19.27 for,  14.66 against), 8th worst PDO(basically luck...teams trend towards 1.0 and the Sabres are at .983 meaning they have been very unlucky compared to other teams).

Goaltending is still the biggest question for me.

Edited January 27, 2021 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

All nice stats, but hard to overcome a 6.2% shooting % 5 on 5.  Unless they start burying some of these great chances, the advanced stats are meaningless.  Considering they have averaged about 6.5 for the last 5 years, it's not out of the realm that stay at or near this shooting % the rest of the year.  To be fair they shot at a fraction above league average last year at 7.7%.  

[matter2003]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All nice stats, but hard to overcome a 6.2% shooting % 5 on 5.  Unless they start burying some of these great chances, the advanced stats are meaningless.  Considering they have averaged about 6.5 for the last 5 years, it's not out of the realm that stay at or near this shooting % the rest of the year.  To be fair they shot at a fraction above league average last year at 7.7%.  

It would be near impossible to continue to have that low of a shooting percentage for an entire season if they stay in those spots...

Last year the Sabres were no higher than 19th in any of those and in most of them bottom 5 in the NHL. 

To give you some comparison if you take the top 10 teams in CF% from last year, the lowest shooting percentage wise were the Kings at 7.61%, the average was 9.84% and 6 of the 10 were over 10%.

If these analytics hold expect to see a significant increase in shooting percentage.

Edited January 27, 2021 by matter2003

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All nice stats, but hard to overcome a 6.2% shooting % 5 on 5.  Unless they start burying some of these great chances, the advanced stats are meaningless.  Considering they have averaged about 6.5 for the last 5 years, it's not out of the realm that stay at or near this shooting % the rest of the year.  To be fair they shot at a fraction above league average last year at 7.7%.  

They are dressing six forwards who were here last year and only 4 who were here two years ago.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

They are dressing six forwards who were here last year and only 4 who were here two years ago.

but those 4 are the primary O weapons for those years and the majority of the cap space.  Also most of the D were here for those years as well.  Staal and Hall are the primary O upgrades (on paper) and they  aren't producing 5 on 5.  Maybe if they start, that stat line will improve.

Edited January 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

but those 4 are the primary O weapons for those years and the majority of the cap space.  Also most of the D were here for those years as well.  Staal and Hall are the primary O upgrades (on paper) and they  aren't producing 5 on 5.  Maybe if they start, that stat line will improve.

You went back five years. Joki and Miller played one of those, Montour 1 and a bit, and Dahlin 2.

I just don’t think the 2015 to 2020 cumulative run has much to do with this collection of players.

The current numbers reflect the fact that four of our five most frequent shooters -Eichel, Hall, Dahlin and Skinner - have combined for 2 goals. Do you expect their abysmal results to continue?

Edited January 27, 2021 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

You went back five years. Joki and Miller played one of those, Montour 1 and a bit, and Dahlin 2.

I just don’t think the 2015 to 2020 cumulative run has much to do with this collection of players.

The current numbers reflect the fact that four of our five most frequent shooters -Eichel, Hall, Dahlin and Skinner - have combined for 2 goals. Do you expect their abysmal results to continue?

I was referring to the last 2 years based on your post.  I don't know if the abysmal results will continue.  I pray they don't but I've seen 40 goal scorers turn into 15 goal scorers with a 7.7% shooting percentage in all situations.  I saw Jack have a career hi last year in shooting % last year by 50%.  I've seen 60 pt player diminish in just 3 years to a 19 pt scorer.  I'm also seeing guys like Rieder, Lazar and Sheahan pot every chance they get, which we both know won't continue.  So yeah I'm worried that it will continue.

Edited January 27, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[erickompositör72]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

...So yeah I'm worried...

 

I'm absolutely shocked

[drnkirishone]

I think the stats confirm what I am seeing.

The team is good, they are not having puck luck with the skill guys and the goaltending is mediocre

[GASabresIUFAN]

38 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

 

I'm absolutely shocked

Sarcasm aside, you don't think given our history and the careers of the players involved that a certain amount skepticism that they'll perform at a playoff caliber level is justified?   

[erickompositör72]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sarcasm aside, you don't think given our history and the careers of the players involved that a certain amount skepticism that they'll perform at a playoff caliber level is justified?   

Oh, what you described is definitely justified! What you've actually been posting, however...

 

😛

[triumph_communes]

Glad to see the advanced stats are matching the eye test lately. 
 

well, at least some of our eye tests. There sure were many people after game two ready to throw the baby out with the bath water.  We played probably the top two teams for our first 6 games. And played well just bad puck luck. 
 

And this board is readable when they’re ignored 😉

[PerreaultForever]

38 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Glad to see the advanced stats are matching the eye test lately. 
 

well, at least some of our eye tests. There sure were many people after game two ready to throw the baby out with the bath water.  We played probably the top two teams for our first 6 games. And played well just bad puck luck. 
 

And this board is readable when they’re ignored 😉

Don't be so sure of that. Boston pummeled Philly the other night and Pittsburgh and Boston just went to OT in a pretty even game. None of this means anything until we beat them (and the Islanders, and maybe even New Jersey as Ruff has them playing decent hockey too). 

[pi2000]

7 points with 6 of those games against arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the league.

They're imrpoved, unfortunately in a tough division, but long term they will be better for it. 

[PromoTheRobot]

I thought they played fairly well, even in some of the early losses. But I thought I saw a little of that "Sabres suck" Classic last night on defense. You know, getting bottled up in our end turning the puck over. 

[klos1963]

We'll probably score enough, but the team is still pretty weak in our own zone. That will need to improve.

[spndnchz]

[This is an automated response]

The topic title needs some TLC... It is too generic. The topic starter can edit the topic title line to make it more appropriate.

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[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

[This is an automated response]

The topic title needs some TLC... It is too generic. The topic starter can edit the topic title line to make it more appropriate.

Thank you.

Automated?  There's a chzbot now?

[sabills]

5 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Automated?  There's a chzbot now?

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sarcasm aside, you don't think given our history and the careers of the players involved that a certain amount skepticism that they'll perform at a playoff caliber level is justified?   

I agree with you that a certain amount of skepticism is warranted. Given the team's history anyone who didn't have some skepticism is simply naive and unaware of how this organization has functioned for a long time. But the eye test indicates (at least to me) that although some of the stats don't justify a positive response, such as ES goals, the difference between conversion and not is miniscule. That is what I am relying on to look beyond the numbers although in general the stats are very positive as @dudacek noted.  There is just too much offensive talent for players such as Jack, Hall and to a lesser extent Skinner to continue on with their scoring struggles. That's the source of my upside perspective. 

Pivoting away from this subject I still believe that the most important factor determining success for this team is the play of its goaltenders, most notably Ullmark. 

[Gabrielor]

Gotta keep to the system (I'm talking to the free-lancers. Eichel, Skinner) and gotta improve goaltending, and not just slightly.

 

Hutton, Montour/Miller, asset for Fleury. Do it, and we'll be in the playoffs finally.

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

Gotta keep to the system (I'm talking to the free-lancers. Eichel, Skinner) and gotta improve goaltending, and not just slightly.

 

Hutton, Montour/Miller, asset for Fleury. Do it, and we'll be in the playoffs finally.

Feel like Ullmark is better than Fleury by now

Just put Skinner on a scoring line, stop the Alamo, and we'll be fine

[That Aud Smell]

I like what I see when I watch them, mostly. The defence still seems a bit scrambly at times. But I like them through the neutral zone and in the other team's zone. If they can get just a bit more good fortune, they will put together a 5-game winning streak.

[LGR4GM]

Skinner needs to be with Cozens, until then this team isn't growing on me. 

Edited January 27, 2021 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Skinner needs to be with Cozens, until then this team isn't growing on me. 

Makes too much sense