Fixing the Sabres Long-Term - Can it be done?

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

Day 3 I call Seattle and try to work a deal so they take Jeff Skinner as part of an expansion draft deal.    Everything is on the table.

This needs to be done. We need to pray that JBott is still in love with Skinner and makes it happen. But -- Skinner has to waive his No Movement clause. And... how many 1st-round picks / combination of picks are you willing to throw in for Seattle to take that contract for a past-his-prime winger who doesn't drive play or make his linemates better because he doesn't pass for 6 more years of $9M when you're trying to build a new hockey market?

[Thwomp!]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who traded away Compher, Lemieux,Grigorenko, Zadorov, Pysyk, Myers, Armia, and McNabb.  That’s a lot of depth to trade away.  

Hindsight is 20/20.  Keeping DR may have worked better, but I think TP needed to move on from DR and LR when the rebuild began not after it started.  He also needed to bring in experienced hockey people to guide the rebuild as if it were an expansion team. (The tank turned us into a virtual expansion team.) Instead he replaced DR with newly minted executive Pat LaFontaine who brought in first time GM TM.  Neither man had any idea on how to build a team and it showed.

Still don't think you can fault LaFontaine in any of this.  He wasn't here long enough.  He still appears to be the smartest person in this whole decade plus debacle.  And counting.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Thwomp! said:

Still don't think you can fault LaFontaine in any of this.  He wasn't here long enough.  He still appears to be the smartest person in this whole decade plus debacle.  And counting.

He hired TM.  

[Carmel Corn]

2 minutes ago, Thwomp! said:

Still don't think you can fault LaFontaine in any of this.  He wasn't here long enough.  He still appears to be the smartest person in this whole decade plus debacle.  And counting.

As an incoming President, you hire the GM first, not the HC.  Patty did it wrong!

[Thwomp!]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He hired TM.  

He may have been a good check on TM's overpaying instincts.  Maybe help with drafting.

3 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

As an incoming President, you hire the GM first, not the HC.  Patty did it wrong!

Bylsma was a prize at the time.

[Carmel Corn]

50 minutes ago, Thwomp! said:

He may have been a good check on TM's overpaying instincts.  Maybe help with drafting.

Bylsma was a prize at the time.

Sorry, but no...Patty hired Ted Nolin, not Bylsma.  He then hired GMTM after hiring Nolin.  Bylsma came later after GMTM fired Nolin.  Patty had nothing to do with the hiring of Bylsma. 

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

This needs to be done. We need to pray that JBott is still in love with Skinner and makes it happen. But -- Skinner has to waive his No Movement clause. And... how many 1st-round picks / combination of picks are you willing to throw in for Seattle to take that contract for a past-his-prime winger who doesn't drive play or make his linemates better because he doesn't pass for 6 more years of $9M when you're trying to build a new hockey market?

...unless Botts never cared for Skinner that much, but was pushed by Madame President and Mr Dig-A-Well to get him signed no matter what the cost. 

[DarthEbriate]

22 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

...unless Botts never cared for Skinner that much, but was pushed by Madame President and Mr Dig-A-Well to get him signed no matter what the cost. 

There is that.

It was so odd that JBott traded for Skinner and didn't immediately extend him... like, that should have been part of the trade. Or if not, then turn around and deal at the deadline at his peak (40-goal season) trade value since he wanted to be a UFA anyway. He could've pulled a Moulson and re-signed with us in the offseason... and definitely not at $9M. No one else around the league was going to give him that. But instead it was a trade and wait while Jack and Sam boosted his value, then not let him hit free agency anyway and "test the market" first.   Every GM is guaranteed to hand out a bad contract on occasion -- part of learning the job. But we've had 4 GMs in 8 years, so all of these bad contracts are still in effect.  (I even lump Regier in that as when Pegula came aboard and opened up the wallet --- Regier's never had that open wallet --- so of course he was going to mistakenly overpay someone like Leino. (Ehrhoff wasn't overpaid, his contract was just poorly designed once the new CBA kicked in.)

[WildCard]

1 hour ago, Thwomp! said:

He may have been a good check on TM's overpaying instincts.  Maybe help with drafting.

Bylsma was a prize at the time.

A ton of us wanted nothing to do with Bylsma

[Thwomp!]

29 minutes ago, WildCard said:

A ton of us wanted nothing to do with Bylsma

Completely agreed.  I've hated every Sabres coach since Ruff.  I was just pointing out that's why the coach was hired first in this situation.

Just now, Thwomp! said:

Completely agreed.  I've hated every Sabres coach since Ruff.  I was just pointing out that's why the coach was hired first in this situation.

Oops I'm wrong anyway.  Who cares?  I don't anymore.  Back to work.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 1/23/2021 at 4:40 PM, tom webster said:

No apologies necessary. I’m so confident I will give you two tickets to the game of your choice if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. No strings.

Can I claim my tickets for next season?

I started this thread 6 weeks ago when we had some hope for this season.  However the trends we are seeing now, exacerbated by COViD and two key injuries, were well established IMHO.

Now what? Is there any hope? This organization is now the laughing stock in the NHL and that is saying something.  For the 4th time since the rebuilding process began we are the worst team in the NHL.  So bad we can’t even score and our coach is doing his Kevin Bacon from Animal House impersonation.

With each passing day that RK retains his position it becomes even clearer that KA is in over his head and doesn’t have the authority to dump RK.  The verified rumors that the Sabres are in the market for an experienced executive is a positive sign for the organization and further evidence that KA is in over his head.

Step 1. The 1st step to credibility are the firing of RK now!  He has lost the team, the fans and the media.  Keeping him for the rest of the season isn’t doing him or the team  any good.  Appoint an interm coach for the season.

Step 2.  Bring in a senior hockey executive with GM and team management experience ASAP.  TP is losing money in the short-term, but he is actually destroying the value of his franchise more by not having competent management in the front office and behind the bench.  This needs to be done now if possible.  We need an experienced hand to evaluate this roster for the remainder of the season.  

Step 3. Play the kids.  I’ve said since camp that this an evaluation season.  I was criticized for this point of view, but it’s clear that this team wasn’t good enough to compete for a playoff spot then and it’s crystal clear now.  Borgen, Bryson, Mitts, Cozens, R2, Asplund and even Thomspon need to play over KO, Eakin, Sheahan, Miller, Montour and Reider, none of which are part of the future.  

Step 4.  Move on from Hall and Staal.  Lazar has outplayed Staal and we still don’t have a 2C.  Not playing Mitts or Cozens at center guarantees that they will have zero chance to fill the role next season. Play one of them at least at center to evaluate if it’s even possible.  My guess is we will need another stop gap at 2C next season at least.  I want Staal and Hall traded for NHL players or near ready prospects.  

Step 5.  ID the core, if any.  My core really hasn’t changed.  Jack, Sam, VO, McCabe, Risto, Dahlin, Jokiharju and Ullmark.  Jack, despite the letdown, is not replaceable. Sam and Vo have been our two best forwards.  Risto and McCabe our two best D.  Ullmark has been good despite the overall chaos in front of him.  Dahlin and Jokiharju have been bad this season, but I think that more a reflection of their youth and terrible coaching.  

Step 6. Team needs.  This step will be harder to do without a new long-term coach in place, but some needs are obvious like 2C.  Top 6 RW, more balance on D both R vs L and style of play and better goaltending.

How to move forward?  The good news is cap space.  We have $49 mill committed to next year, but a good chunk of that can be moved or limited.

Up front Jack, VO, KO, Eakin, Lazar, Girgensons, Cozens, Thomspon and Skinner are signed up front.  Of those 9, I can see as few as 6 returning next season.  Only Sam is owed big $ as an RFA.  Mitts (RFA), Rieder (UFA), and Sheahan (UFA) also might return. We are stuck with Skinner, but KO needs to be bought out. 

On Defense only Miller and Risto are signed (plus Bryson if he makes the team).  I’m hoping to lose Miller to expansion. Borgen, Dahlin and Jokiharju are RFAs.  McCabe an UFA.  Dahlin should get a reasonable bridge deal, but Borgen and Joki aren’t getting significant deals. It will be interesting to see what the team does with McCabe.  Both goaltenders are UFAs.  Hutton is certainly gone, but will Ullmark return?

This is almost exactly the place we were last off-season but with somehow a worse team.  

Here is where I think we are

Forwards

Skinner Jack Samson

VO ????? ?????/Cozens

????  Mitts ?????

Girgensons Lazar Sheahan (UFA)

Defense

McCabe (UFA)  Risto

Dahlin ????/Borgen

????  Jokiharju

Ullmark?(UFA)

????

Basically KA kicked the can down the road a season.  If KA had any guts he’d try to use the deadline to fill some of these holes. 

[Scottysabres]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can I claim my tickets for next season?

I started this thread 6 weeks ago when we had some hope for this season.  However the trends we are seeing now, exacerbated by COViD and two key injuries, were well established IMHO.

Now what? Is there any hope? This organization is now the laughing stock in the NHL and that is saying something.  For the 4th time since the rebuilding process began we are the worst team in the NHL.  So bad we can’t even score and our coach is doing his Kevin Bacon from Animal House impersonation.

With each passing day that RK retains his position it becomes even clearer that KA is in over his head and doesn’t have the authority to dump RK.  The verified rumors that the Sabres are in the market for an experienced executive is a positive sign for the organization and further evidence that KA is in over his head.

Step 1. The 1st step to credibility are the firing of RK now!  He has lost the team, the fans and the media.  Keeping him for the rest of the season isn’t doing him or the team  any good.  Appoint an interm coach for the season.

Step 2.  Bring in a senior hockey executive with GM and team management experience ASAP.  TP is losing money in the short-term, but he is actually destroying the value of his franchise more by not having competent management in the front office and behind the bench.  This needs to be done now if possible.  We need an experienced hand to evaluate this roster for the remainder of the season.  

Step 3. Play the kids.  I’ve said since camp that this an evaluation season.  I was criticized for this point of view, but it’s clear that this team wasn’t good enough to compete for a playoff spot then and it’s crystal clear now.  Borgen, Bryson, Mitts, Cozens, R2, Asplund and even Thomspon need to play over KO, Eakin, Sheahan, Miller, Montour and Reider, none of which are part of the future.  

Step 4.  Move on from Hall and Staal.  Lazar has outplayed Staal and we still don’t have a 2C.  Not playing Mitts or Cozens at center guarantees that they will have zero chance to fill the role next season. Play one of them at least at center to evaluate if it’s even possible.  My guess is we will need another stop gap at 2C next season at least.  I want Staal and Hall traded for NHL players or near ready prospects.  

Step 5.  ID the core, if any.  My core really hasn’t changed.  Jack, Sam, VO, McCabe, Risto, Dahlin, Jokiharju and Ullmark.  Jack, despite the letdown, is not replaceable. Sam and Vo have been our two best forwards.  Risto and McCabe our two best D.  Ullmark has been good despite the overall chaos in front of him.  Dahlin and Jokiharju have been bad this season, but I think that more a reflection of their youth and terrible coaching.  

Step 6. Team needs.  This step will be harder to do without a new long-term coach in place, but some needs are obvious like 2C.  Top 6 RW, more balance on D both R vs L and style of play and better goaltending.

How to move forward?  The good news is cap space.  We have $49 mill committed to next year, but a good chunk of that can be moved or limited.

Up front Jack, VO, KO, Eakin, Lazar, Girgensons, Cozens, Thomspon and Skinner are signed up front.  Of those 9, I can see as few as 6 returning next season.  Only Sam is owed big $ as an RFA.  Mitts (RFA), Rieder (UFA), and Sheahan (UFA) also might return. We are stuck with Skinner, but KO needs to be bought out. 

On Defense only Miller and Risto are signed (plus Bryson if he makes the team).  I’m hoping to lose Miller to expansion. Borgen, Dahlin and Jokiharju are RFAs.  McCabe an UFA.  Dahlin should get a reasonable bridge deal, but Borgen and Joki aren’t getting significant deals. It will be interesting to see what the team does with McCabe.  Both goaltenders are UFAs.  Hutton is certainly gone, but will Ullmark return?

This is almost exactly the place we were last off-season but with somehow a worse team.  

Here is where I think we are

Forwards

Skinner Jack Samson

VO ????? ?????/Cozens

????  Mitts ?????

Girgensons Lazar Sheahan (UFA)

Defense

McCabe (UFA)  Risto

Dahlin ????/Borgen

????  Jokiharju

Ullmark?(UFA)

????

Basically KA kicked the can down the road a season.  If KA had any guts he’d try to use the deadline to fill some of these holes. 

You left out a large portion of the scenario. Specifically the players themselves. Do they want to be here? Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, Dahlin, and others. Do they want to go through another upheaval in management/coaching?

Given the depths this team has sunk to in desire, compete level and commitment to such, there is sure to be dissenting players that assuredly want out. That's huge.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

You left out a large portion of the scenario. Specifically the players themselves. Do they want to be here? Eichel, Reinhart, Risto, Dahlin, and others. Do they want to go through another upheaval in management/coaching?

Given the depths this team has sunk to in desire, compete level and commitment to such, there is sure to be dissenting players that assuredly want out. That's huge.

That’s all part of IDing the core.  With so many UFAs and RFAs for many it’s an easy decision.  The real question in this area is Jack.  Unfortunately for him he is signed and not replaceable.  I agree he may not want to go through transition 4.0, but he isn’t going anywhere.  Hopefully he’ll feel better once a Rutherford and Julien show up.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The deadline has come and gone.  

Out: JoJo, Hall, Staal, Lazar, and Montour

In: A 2nd, 2 3rds, a 5th and a 6th, plus Anderson Bjork and the corpse of Drake Caggulia.

With Lazar injured, losing Montour is the only real impact on the ice right now.  In theory Bjork has upside, but don't count on it.  

We'll be lucky to find 1 player from the 5 draft picks.  Essentially we are no closer to or long-term goals except we have learned that KA has no idea how to do his job.  I guess that's something.

On the plus side, since we rid ourselves on the malevolent influence of Rasputin, given the kids PT and got Ullmark back, the team has begun to play good hockey and created some hope for the future.  Mitts, Thompson, Bryson, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Asplund (and Montour before he was traded) have all stepped up their games and are making great cases for bigger roles for themselves next season.

I went and did a cap analysis for a status quo team featuring the kids.  I come out at about 75 mill, with new deals for Ullmark (5 for 5), McCabe (4 for 4), Dahlin (5 for 5) and Reinhart (7 for 5) getting the bulk of the money.  Re-signed RFA includes Asplund, Borgen, Mitts, and Jokiharju, plus $2 mill for a backup goalie.  I also have R2 earning a full time gig.  

The better this team plays down the stretch the more likely this status quo roster stays intact for next season and I want to go on record right now and say I'm more then ok with that.

[Marvin]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The deadline has come and gone.  

Out: JoJo, Hall, Staal, Lazar, and Montour

In: A 2nd, 2 3rds, a 5th and a 6th, plus Anderson Bjork and the corpse of Drake Caggulia.

With Lazar injured, losing Montour is the only real impact on the ice right now.  In theory Bjork has upside, but don't count on it.  

We'll be lucky to find 1 player from the 5 draft picks.  Essentially we are no closer to or long-term goals except we have learned that KA has no idea how to do his job.  I guess that's something.

On the plus side, since we rid ourselves on the malevolent influence of Rasputin, given the kids PT and got Ullmark back, the team has begun to play good hockey and created some hope for the future.  Mitts, Thompson, Bryson, Dahlin, Jokiharju, Asplund (and Montour before he was traded) have all stepped up their games and are making great cases for bigger roles for themselves next season.

I went and did a cap analysis for a status quo team featuring the kids.  I come out at about 75 mill, with new deals for Ullmark (5 for 5), McCabe (4 for 4), Dahlin (5 for 5) and Reinhart (7 for 5) getting the bulk of the money.  Re-signed RFA includes Asplund, Borgen, Mitts, and Jokiharju, plus $2 mill for a backup goalie.  I also have R2 earning a full time gig.  

The better this team plays down the stretch the more likely this status quo roster stays intact for next season and I want to go on record right now and say I'm more then ok with that.

What I am hoping is that GMKA has enough self-awareness that he can convince T&KP to pay for some help in his office.

I also hope that the quality of play we are getting out of our youth will entice a good coach here.

IMHO, the organisation finally is set-up properly to improve consistently without asking for anything magical or outrageous for a bit if we get the right Coach and AGMs..  Hiring them gives credibility to the franchise in the eyes of the league and, most importantly, in the eyes of the players.  That would help immensely with keeping Ullmark for starters.

[Scottysabres]

On 1/23/2021 at 6:19 PM, Scottysabres said:

Question, if I may.

What makes you think guys like Eichel, Reinhart and Risto are going to stick around past this season as it falters yet again? And I'm not talking solely about your rebuild idea, but the honest question fans, and the organization for that matter, should be asking is at what point do these guys (1 of which has already said he wants out, Risto, another with rumblings of "tired of losing) say I've had enough and demand to be moved.

I'm going to say this now, and it wont be popular I know, but if this team falters this season, Eichel, Risto and Reinhart are demanding out. That is my humbled opinion, and, it has some merit to be considered reasonable given the recent past comments of a couple of those players. 

Therefore, I do not believe KA has the clock to "evaluate the organization" nor should he need it given the fact he's been a part of it.

As for management changes, sure, why not. But as of now, in the view I have over these past 5 years or so, the Sabres are on the clock, and the clock is nearing the end of its countdown.

This post of mine was brought back in to my view from late Jan.

Shout out to @Norcal for giving my follow up a thumbs up. Yes, I've suspected what I posted here would come to fruition. But, I'm no Nastradamus, I didn't have a clue on the whole Eichel injury thing.

I'm not overly concerned about losing all 3 of them either. Like the end scene in Lion King..... "Simba, it is time".

 

[Ducky]

I'd offer Seattle a 1st this year and a 3rd in 2023 and eat 1m of his contract but I highly doubt he wants to play in Seattle.

[Jerry Jabber]

On 2/19/2021 at 10:38 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Who traded away Compher, Lemieux,Grigorenko, Zadorov, Pysyk, Myers, Armia, and McNabb.  That’s a lot of depth to trade away.  

Hindsight is 20/20.  Keeping DR may have worked better, but I think TP needed to move on from DR and LR when the rebuild began not after it started.  He also needed to bring in experienced hockey people to guide the rebuild as if it were an expansion team. (The tank turned us into a virtual expansion team.) Instead he replaced DR with newly minted executive Pat LaFontaine who brought in first time GM TM.  Neither man had any idea on how to build a team and it showed.

Agreed 100% Not only did Murray trade away tons of prospects, he traded away high draft picks as well. By trading away all those assets, he set the team back many, many years. 

[Taro T]

28 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said:

Agreed 100% Not only did Murray trade away tons of prospects, he traded away high draft picks as well. By trading away all those assets, he set the team back many, many years. 

Was it his trading away assets for Kane, Bogosian, Lehner, & O'Reilly that set the Sabres back or was it Botterill letting them go for pennies on the $?

IMHO, running the hockey equivalent of going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 & then back to a 3-4 set the team back further than the individual manueverings of any of the 4 GMs that have worked for the Pegulas. 

My concern since yesterday is that Adams might now be resetting back to another youth movement.  Which sets them back again, all over again.

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, Jerry Jabber said:

Agreed 100% Not only did Murray trade away tons of prospects, he traded away high draft picks as well. By trading away all those assets, he set the team back many, many years. 

Serious question, which group would you rather have, 5 years later?

Kane, Bogosian, Lehner, O’Reilly, Asplund, Deslauriers, Kulikov

or 

Grigorenko, Zadorov, Myers, Lemieux, Armia, Roslovic, Pysyk, Compher, McNabb, Cernak and White?

Now that the draft picks have settled out, I think that’s the net of players still in the NHL.

I think I go the first group, largely on the strength of O’Reilly.

[Jerry Jabber]

44 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Was it his trading away assets for Kane, Bogosian, Lehner, & O'Reilly that set the Sabres back or was it Botterill letting them go for pennies on the $?

IMHO, running the hockey equivalent of going from a 3-4 to a 4-3 & then back to a 3-4 set the team back further than the individual manueverings of any of the 4 GMs that have worked for the Pegulas. 

My concern since yesterday is that Adams might now be resetting back to another youth movement.  Which sets them back again, all over again.

IMO, it’s a combination of bad decisions throughout the years. I’d say both.I get that Murray was trying to speed up the tank, but he gutted the team of the assets the tank built up (prospects, high draft picks).
 

The Pegula’s biggest problem IMO is with hiring and continuing to hire inexperienced GM’s.  The last three Sabres GM’s were assistant GM’s with no prior GM experience.   

[Jerry Jabber]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Serious question, which group would you rather have, 5 years later?

Kane, Bogosian, Lehner, O’Reilly, Asplund, Deslauriers, Kulikov

or 

Grigorenko, Zadorov, Myers, Lemieux, Armia, Roslovic, Pysyk, Compher, McNabb, Cernak and White?

Now that the draft picks have settled out, I think that’s the net of players still in the NHL.

I think I go the first group, largely on the strength of O’Reilly.

Good question. I just think Murray gave up way too much between draft picks and prospects to get those players. It just seemedMurray was only focused on having one or two great lines, but that’s nowhere near enough to win in the NHL. You need three to four good lines to win. You can’t expect your top line to win you every game.

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, Jerry Jabber said:

IMO, it’s a combination of bad decisions throughout the years. I’d say both.I get that Murray was trying to speed up the tank, but he gutted the team of the assets the tank built up (prospects, high draft picks).
 

The Pegula’s biggest problem IMO is with hiring and continuing to hire inexperienced GM’s.  The last three Sabres GM’s were assistant GM’s with no prior GM experience.   

So, in short, the owners (although generous with the money they pumped in) are the problem. Terry and Kim need to either completely disconnect from the franchise and let more knowledgeable people run it completely. Or sell the team to another owner who will keep the team in Buffalo but stay the F out of the picture in all aspects except writing checks.

[spndnchz]

3 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

IMO, it’s a combination of bad decisions throughout the years. I’d say both.I get that Murray was trying to speed up the tank, but he gutted the team of the assets the tank built up (prospects, high draft picks).
 

The Pegula’s biggest problem IMO is with hiring and continuing to hire inexperienced GM’s.  The last three Sabres GM’s were assistant GM’s with no prior GM experience.   

I think one of the biggest problems is turnover. Fans as well as players (a few said this in the exit interviews) are tired of starting over and over during the season and even between seasons. There’s no direction. 

[I-90 W]

Unless the Pegula’s seriously step back and hand the reigns over, or sell the team, afraid any moves we make are just putting lipstick on a pig.