Solving the Goaltending Issue - Can it be done?

[#freejame]

What’s crazy to me is that hockey 101, for as long as I’ve been alive at least, has been to build from the net out. I learned that at like seven years old. We’ve now gone through three GMs that don’t seem to understand that. Goalies are responsible for stealing more games and giving away more games than any other player. It’s so simple. I just don’t understand anymore. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, #freejame said:

What’s crazy to me is that hockey 101, for as long as I’ve been alive at least, has been to build from the net out. I learned that at like seven years old. We’ve now gone through three GMs that don’t seem to understand that. Goalies are responsible for stealing more games and giving away more games than any other player. It’s so simple. I just don’t understand anymore. 

I remember the Ryan Miller decent/elite arguments from 10 years ago.

When he was traded some of us said Sabre fans have been spoiled for nearly 20 years and we are about to find out how much.

Those words have certainly stood the test of time.

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

More numbers.

 

Goals Saved Above Average per 60 looks at goalie performance compared to the average of all goalies.  16th ranked (ie, median of the top 31 goalies) is +0.63; this would be solid starting goaltending.

Ullmark is 32nd at -0.02; he's effectively the definition of replacement goaltender.

Hutton is 52nd at -0.81

Johansson is 59th at -1.52

If Johansson (-1.52) plays against the median starting goaltender (+0.63), the Sabres need to score (+0.63 - -1.52 = ) 2.15 more goals per game just to even up the goaltending deficit.  This is a huge barrier to winning right now.  We're 7th last in Goals Against, which is negating our being 9th best in Goals For, and we're simply not getting any help in net.

Nice info.

Just one thing.  This would make Ullmark just about a league average goalie, not replacement level.  

[#freejame]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I remember the Ryan Miller decent/elite arguments from 10 years ago.

When he was traded some of us said Sabre fans have been spoiled for nearly 20 years and we are about to find out how much.

Those words have certainly stood the test of time.

That’s the problem with labels. Ryan Miller had more above average seasons than elite seasons, but he was undoubtedly a very good goalie. 
 

Good goalies allow you time to develop. ***** goaltending forces the issue and we’ve seen that. 

[Weave]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I remember the Ryan Miller decent/elite arguments from 10 years ago.

When he was traded some of us said Sabre fans have been spoiled for nearly 20 years and we are about to find out how much.

Those words have certainly stood the test of time.

And noone best that drum louder than Eleven, who predicted goalie purgatory.

[Derrico]

41 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

More numbers.

 

Goals Saved Above Average per 60 looks at goalie performance compared to the average of all goalies.  16th ranked (ie, median of the top 31 goalies) is +0.63; this would be solid starting goaltending.

Ullmark is 32nd at -0.02; he's effectively the definition of replacement goaltender.

Hutton is 52nd at -0.81

Johansson is 59th at -1.52

If Johansson (-1.52) plays against the median starting goaltender (+0.63), the Sabres need to score (+0.63 - -1.52 = ) 2.15 more goals per game just to even up the goaltending deficit.  This is a huge barrier to winning right now.  We're 7th last in Goals Against, which is negating our being 9th best in Goals For, and we're simply not getting any help in net.

Like wtf do they even pay their analytic department to do?

[Derrico]

The need to improve goaltending this offseason was so obvious that I was just waiting for the ‘who’ and hope it was a big enough upgrade.  Too not addressed this in such a critical year makes me assume Adams is not ready for the job and no different then the long list of disappointing GMs we’ve had since Darcy.

[Andrew Amerk]

33 minutes ago, Derrico said:

The need to improve goaltending this offseason was so obvious that I was just waiting for the ‘who’ and hope it was a big enough upgrade.  Too not addressed this in such a critical year makes me assume Adams is not ready for the job and no different then the long list of disappointing GMs we’ve had since Darcy.

ANOTHER GM with zero previous experience faltering? I’m shocked. 

Would you want a car mechanic with no medical experience performing your heart surgery? Or a man with no political experience running your country?

[IKnowPhysics]

1 hour ago, Derrico said:

Like wtf do they even pay their analytic department to do?

Some of Ullmark's numbers last year weren't that bad.  And Hutton had the eye thing.  It's entirely possible that Kevyn Adams thought or was being told that Ullmark and Hutton would certainly improve.  But we haven't seen that yet.

[pi2000]

I'm fine with Ullmark and his performance.... he's still young (for a goalie) and has shown steady improvement.

But you need a proven veteran starter to split time with him. 

 

[Derrico]

10 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Some of Ullmark's numbers last year weren't that bad.  And Hutton had the eye thing.  It's entirely possible that Kevyn Adams thought or was being told that Ullmark and Hutton would certainly improve.  But we haven't seen that yet.

Ullmark had decent numbers and is worth keeping.  But Hutton had garbage, below replacement numbers.  Why on earth did we go into such an important year with a hope and prayer in Ullmark and below replacement level Hutton? 

Last year Hutton had a 3.18 GAA and .898 SV% good enough for 64th and 62nd in the league respectively.  For the record, Ullmark was 29th and 25th respectively.  Even removing goalies with less then 20 starts Ullmark ranked 23rd and 19th.  

So the numbers seem to say we have a slightly below average starter and terrible backup.  

I've laid it out before but we went out and signed the top free agent in the market for one year.  Another year of missing the playoffs adds more pressure to Jack wanting out and it's another Dahlin ELC year wasted (although I know he's not living up to what we all hope for right now).   

That last goal went right through Hutton.  The team played like crap but they're just not good enough to overcome below average goaltending.  How many points is it going to cost the Sabres before a move is made?  It's scary management felt comfortable going into such a key season with an average starter and hoping a bad eye improves a below replacement backup who we know will play much more this season then what is typical due to condensed schedule.  

Only Sabres management seem to miss and/or ignore the absolute obvious glaring weakness of the team every single offseason.

[Zamboni]

Logically ... What goalies, that are “tradable” from their team, are as good or better than Ullmark?

And after that’s answered ... would the price be “too high” for the Sabres. Would fans be ok parting with Cozens, or Reinhart, or Risto, or Joker, or a combo of next tier prospects and an established NHLer on a fair contract? Some fans want the current roster gutted. Some fans don’t want to part with any top 6 player. Some fans want Skinner and Okposo gone. Not everyone is gonna like the price of trading for a slightly above average goalie. It’s probably gonna hurt. And my guess is, it will hurt quite a bit.

[sabresouth]

11 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Some of Ullmark's numbers last year weren't that bad.  And Hutton had the eye thing.  It's entirely possible that Kevyn Adams thought or was being told that Ullmark and Hutton would certainly improve.  But we haven't seen that yet.

Yeah... Hutton needs to get his money back 😎

[sabresouth]

Well we aren't going to even sniff the playoffs unless we upgrade goaltending soon. We need an Ulmark quality or better( preferably better) to to even have a chance at the playoffs. I think the poor play of the sabres yesterday is a direct result of hutton. They don't even try because they know he's going to fail them. I know it's not all goaltending. We need better defense but it's easier to change one player at goaltending and make a big difference than two or three defensemen. I agree with Derrico 100%. I'm extremely disappointed that KA didn't address this in the off-season.

[pi2000]

...and to top it off, in Hutton's post game presser last night, he said he felt like he gave them a chance to win.... what?!   And Dahlin says he felt like they played really good defensively.

What is going on in that lockerroom? These guys are delusional.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

...and to top it off, in Hutton's post game presser last night, he said he felt like he gave them a chance to win.... what?!   And Dahlin says he felt like they played really good defensively.

What is going on in that lockerroom? These guys are delusional.

yes they are.  

PS your Angry Sabres Fan 2021 membership has been approved.  Welcome to the club.

Edited February 1, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Derrico]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

...and to top it off, in Hutton's post game presser last night, he said he felt like he gave them a chance to win.... what?!   And Dahlin says he felt like they played really good defensively.

What is going on in that lockerroom? These guys are delusional.

He didn't say that.  Tell me he didn't say that.  Hutton is absolute garbage and until he's upgraded this team ain't going anywhere......

[pi2000]

29 minutes ago, Derrico said:

He didn't say that.  Tell me he didn't say that.  Hutton is absolute garbage and until he's upgraded this team ain't going anywhere......

Hutton:  "I try to battle, there's a lot of things I can't control"....   "these last few games at home.. giving up too many scoring chances"...  on the 4th goal "it just popped out to him, not sure where the d-man was, never saw the release"...   "doesn't matter how many big one's you make, it's that one that hurts"... "i just try to compete, i think I've given us a chance to win when I've been in there."

Dahlin:  "they had their chances and they scored on them"... when asked what he likes about the team right now, "Everyone has bought in to the defensive side of the game, we play solid in the d-zone, we're tough to play against.   We need to get our 5 on 5 scoring going.."

Sounds like they're on 2 different teams haha

[Scottysabres]

4 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Hutton:  "I try to battle, there's a lot of things I can't control"....   "these last few games at home.. giving up too many scoring chances"...  on the 4th goal "it just popped out to him, not sure where the d-man was, never saw the release"...   "doesn't matter how many big one's you make, it's that one that hurts"... "i just try to compete, i think I've given us a chance to win when I've been in there."

Dahlin:  "they had their chances and they scored on them"... when asked what he likes about the team right now, "Everyone has bought in to the defensive side of the game, we play solid in the d-zone, we're tough to play against.   We need to get our 5 on 5 scoring going.."

Sounds like they're on 2 different teams haha

 

[DarthEbriate]

At this point, it's simple: replace Hutton. He had a fantastic start in October 2019, but otherwise has been awful (even his first season with us was only .908 sv%). Honestly, we're so good at making AHLers-making-their-first-NHL-start look good that I'm wondering if maybe we just get Tokarski up and let him roll as the backup it'll work for us. (Johansson has not looked ready - not last year, definitely not in this year's preseason scrimmages.)

Ullmark may not be elite, but he's solid and is dynamite in shootouts. He's already stolen points for us this season and if he'd have played Sunday he might have stolen another point for us. I want to see him get his sv% up into the .916/.918 this season. I don't see him becoming a dominant starter (.925/All-Star caliber), but he can easily be a platoon goalie for the next 5-6 years or be a super steady backup. He could definitely backstop a good team to a Cup (in the vein of young Ward, Osgood, Crawford, etc., even if he's not getting the Vezina votes).

[Taro T]

Does anybody believe the players believe in Hutton?

[sabresouth]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Does anybody believe the players believe in Hutton?

No

[Norcal]

It's not Hutton, we know that and so should the coaches.

Ullmark has been playing better and looked poised for a possible break out season before he left tonight's game with injury.

Hopefully he comes back next game or soon after BUT...if not

The Sabres should play Jonas Johansson as the starter for a block of games. He's ready for his chance in the league. He's almost aged out as a goalie prospect and isn't close to the top of the list but he is the most seasoned and NHL ready right now so...play the guy!!! 

If he sucks, he sucks. If he plays well, they benefit. Either way he gives them as much of a chance as Hutton does at this stage in his career.

If not JJ then who? 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The guy KA should have signed or acquired instead of Hutton this off-season

[Norcal]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The guy KA should have signed or acquired instead of Hutton this off-season

Yeah but he didn't so now what? Play JJ? Tokarski? Loukkenon?  Or keep playing Hutton when they know the result?

Maybe they make a move now? Is there one available?