Solving the Goaltending Issue - Can it be done?

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, Derrico said:

They should have been looking to trade for a goalie regardless of Ullmark.  If he’s out for awhile they need to be making a move ASAP.  
 

Again, why are we wasting a season of Dahlin on his ELC, Jack in his prime and the top free agent in the league one year deal??  So much riding on the season and Adams makes zero goaltending moves.  
 

I will keep banging the drum that not addressing goaltending this offseason is as bad as JBot not addressing the 2C in prior offseason.  It is, and has been for the past twelve months, an obvious area of the roster that had to be upgraded.  What a waste.

It's such a salient point. 

It was never intrinsically sound logically, with the roster we have, and the additions we made, to *not* address the goaltending in the offseason. 

3 hours ago, tom webster said:

Bottom of roster isn’t seriously weak. True issues are #2 center and in goal. All the underlying numbers have been very good for three of the four games. If Skinner converts a couple of his chances, this team would have won three of four games against the two best teams in its division.

Or if Ullmark plays game one....or if Staal doesn't have that massive giveaway game 1...or..

I agree. 2C less of an issue though, personally I haven't given up on Eric. 

[IKnowPhysics]

FWIW and because it wasn't posted yet.

 

Also, the motivation to make moves may already be data-supported.  We're ballin' out on both sides of the puck, sans low shooting %, but goaltending is the obvious issue and may be worse.

I know in-season trades for goalies are rare, but it's hard to believe you give Hall $8M to impress him for a year and then think that backstopping him with a Shooter Tutor is ok.  I believe the motivation to improve is there, particularly is Hutton is out long term.

[bob_sauve28]

13 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

FWIW and because it wasn't posted yet.

 

Also, the motivation to make moves may already be data-supported.  We're ballin' out on both sides of the puck, sans low shooting %, but goaltending is the obvious issue and may be worse.

I know in-season trades for goalies are rare, but it's hard to believe you give Hall $8M to impress him for a year and then think that backstopping him with a Shooter Tutor is ok.  I believe the motivation to improve is there, particularly is Hutton is out long term.

Those stats make a lot of sense. We should be scoring more goals, AND be giving up fewer. 

 

Frustrating! 

[Norcal]

43 minutes ago, Curt said:

Last year he played about 10 games in the AHL and was mostly quite bad.  Looks like he has been ok in Liiga, but not great.  I see no sign that he is ready for the NHL.

I would feel better about JJ or Tokarski in the Sabres net to be honest.

Yeah I looked it up. It doesn't look promising. I do like JJ tho. Hes worked his way through the hard way, nothing given yet here he is starting games in the NHL. 

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

FWIW and because it wasn't posted yet.

 

Also, the motivation to make moves may already be data-supported.  We're ballin' out on both sides of the puck, sans low shooting %, but goaltending is the obvious issue and may be worse.

I know in-season trades for goalies are rare, but it's hard to believe you give Hall $8M to impress him for a year and then think that backstopping him with a Shooter Tutor is ok.  I believe the motivation to improve is there, particularly is Hutton is out long term.

Those fancy stats line up well with the eye test and support my opinion that the current panic is unwarranted.

All four of our games have been against two teams considered contenders and I saw nothing to indicate that our skaters couldn't match them stride for stride.

We've had one game when we played poorly and our goalie was bad. We've had three games when we played well and our goalie(s) were fine.

Over the course of the season we are going to score enough goals.

If our goalies can be a net positive in the tight games we will make the playoffs.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Do I need to start a KA do something already thread?

Edited January 21, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[LabattBlue]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Do I need to start a KA do something already thread?

This team needed an overhaul, and Adams made ONE trade the entire off-season.  Easy to sign a bunch of mediocre FA’s(outside of Hall) as he doesn’t have to deal with other GM’s looking to take advantage of a very very very green GM. 

Let’s see how he does making a deal when the going gets tough. 

[Zamboni]

Ok Chad. Ok ...

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

This team needed an overhaul, and Adams made ONE trade the entire off-season.  Easy to sign a bunch of mediocre FA’s(outside of Hall) as he doesn’t have to deal with other GM’s looking to take advantage of a very very very green GM. 

Let’s see how he does making a deal when the going gets tough. 

That’s a very interesting and thoughtful observation. We might have been better off keeping MoJo at this point, although I’m still hopeful on Staal.

Edited January 21, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a very interesting and thoughtful observation. We might have been better off keeping MoJo at this point, although I’m still hopeful on Staal.

Still expecting Staal to settle in.  But even if this is all the Sabres get from him, they're getting it at $1.25MM cheaper than they'd get essentially equivalent from Johansson.

[bob_sauve28]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a very interesting and thoughtful observation. We might have been better off keeping MoJo at this point, although I’m still hopeful on Staal.

I hope he comes around. That turnover against the Caps that led to a goal is as of now, his most memorable event as a Sabre. He needs to change that 

[JohnC]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a very interesting and thoughtful observation. We might have been better off keeping MoJo at this point, although I’m still hopeful on Staal.

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with your take on the Johansson for Staal trade. The clamor after last year's season was that the 2C position needed to be addressed. And the necessity of a deal for a 2C was indisputable.  Staal is an end of the line veteran who may or may not have a year or two left in his hockey lifespan. (That factor and risk was considered when the deal was made.) The rational for his procurement was that he was a reasonable short term (year or so) placeholder for Cozens. Considering what was given up for him it was a deal in foresight and hindsight that was worth making. The Staal for Johansson trade calculation went beyond talent for talent. There was another layer to it. It revolved around the necessity of addressing a major need and better balancing the roster. 

Staal has not played well. Few people would say otherwise. It's not so much that he has been bad as much he has not been good. In order to be competitive you need both of your top two centers to play above mediocre levels to be competitive. Staal currently falls under the standard. But let's not just yet jump to a conclusion about him. It's still early in the season. And it has to be acknowledged that he is playing for a new team with unfamiliar and changing line mates.  Not having a normal training camp and preseason certainly has to be factored in when evaluating him at this point.(Marty Biron brought this point up in a WGR appearance.) What I basically saying here is let's give it more time before the lamenting  is unleashed. 

 

 

[pi2000]

They had eons to address the goaltending situation after last season abruptly ended.

They did nothing and now we hear they're talking to teams about the position?    The ineptitude is mind-blowing.

[bob_sauve28]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

They had eons to address the goaltending situation after last season abruptly ended.

They did nothing and now we hear they're talking to teams about the position?    The ineptitude is mind-blowing.

Well, not sure it was an easy situation to address. They could of spent big money on a vet who may or may not of been better than Ullmark. Or maybe none of the vets wanted to come here. There were many teams in the market for tenders that also didn’t get in on the buying. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is the problem @johnC.  KA took a chance, one worth taking, but had no backup plan if it failed.  Eakin is not a 2C and really isn’t good enough to fill that role if needed.  We also aren’t giving any young centers PT at center in the lower lines to develop them to take over next year or later this year if they prove effective.  Cozens is playing wing, R2 is in the AHL camp and Mitts is playing not at all.  

As usual the Sabres organization is just flailing away hoping things just work out.  I wouldn’t have acquired Hall.  I would have used that money to get another top 6 RW and a goaltender.  I also would have looked for a 2C with some term. 

While KA improved our center depth, we now have a 1 (Jack) two 3’s (Staal and Eakin) and two 4’s (Lazar and Sheahan) plus Jbot’s kids in Cozens, Mitts and R2.  The 2C gap remains and unless we develop and play some of the kids, we’ll still have that gap this coming off-season as well.

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

They had eons to address the goaltending situation after last season abruptly ended.

They did nothing and now we hear they're talking to teams about the position?    The ineptitude is mind-blowing.

You are assuming that they did not try to improve the goaltending, which I believe to be an incorrect assumption. I have always been of the belief that trying isn’t good enough and they have to do all they can but in this case I believe they have. It’s not fantasy hockey, you can’t force a team to help you or count on outsmarting someone who has lost interest. As someone else stated, none of the free agent goalies were worth considering. They fell under 

A) too expensive

B) not an upgrade 

C) not interested in coming here.

Further, I believe they thought they had a deal but a couple of circumstances out of their control delayed or ended the transaction. Now they have to decide if they want to part with certain assets or hope that the current goalies are good enough.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As usual the Sabres organization is just flailing away hoping things just work out.  I wouldn’t have acquired Hall.  I would have used that money to get another top 6 RW and a goaltender.  I also would have looked for a 2C with some term. 

Regarding Hall, didn't Hall's agent approach the Sabres after no top contender had the money to sign him? The thinking being for Hall to have a Skinner year playing beside Eichel and then command top dollar for next year? 

Regarding the 2C, Dubois should have been targeted. He still should be, although now the price tag is iffy and he might not want to come here. 

Yes, we should have gone after a goalie. Or I guess, we shouldn't have given up on Lehner.  Did we try to get a goalie and fail? No idea. 

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Regarding Hall, didn't Hall's agent approach the Sabres after no top contender had the money to sign him? The thinking being for Hall to have a Skinner year playing beside Eichel and then command top dollar for next year? 

Regarding the 2C, Dubois should have been targeted. He still should be, although now the price tag is iffy and he might not want to come here. 

Yes, we should have gone after a goalie. Or I guess, we shouldn't have given up on Lehner.  Did we try to get a goalie and fail? No idea. 

The Sabres contacted Hall right away. Their's is one of the first pitches he heard. It's been reported that other teams offered considerably less than the Sabres did, or said they needed to clear space. It has also been reported that the Sabres were on Hall's list prior to free agency opening.

The video is on the Sabres site and is worth watching

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by dudacek

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is the problem @johnC.  KA took a chance, one worth taking, but had no backup plan if it failed.  Eakin is not a 2C and really isn’t good enough to fill that role if needed.  We also aren’t giving any young centers PT at center in the lower lines to develop them to take over next year or later this year if they prove effective.  Cozens is playing wing, R2 is in the AHL camp and Mitts is playing not at all.  

As usual the Sabres organization is just flailing away hoping things just work out.  I wouldn’t have acquired Hall.  I would have used that money to get another top 6 RW and a goaltender.  I also would have looked for a 2C with some term. 

While KA improved our center depth, we now have a 1 (Jack) two 3’s (Staal and Eakin) and two 4’s (Lazar and Sheahan) plus Jbot’s kids in Cozens, Mitts and R2.  The 2C gap remains and unless we develop and play some of the kids, we’ll still have that gap this coming off-season as well.

Let me start off with where I severely disagree with you. From what I have seen from Hall it is apparent to me that he has regained his elite form. Even with this small sample I will go so far as to say that he is an upper tier player in the league. When you have a gift horse opportunity you seize it. Was the salary cost high? Of course it was! When you want top tier talent you pay for talent. 

I'm not going to criticize the coaching staff for not immediately playing Cozens at the center position. As I have stated before the model to follow is the Blackhawk method that was used last year for their precocious rookie, Kirby Dach. The staff started him at wing and as the season advanced and he got acclimated to the league he was elevated to a center role. I wouldn't be surprised if Cozens ends up playing center sometime this year. 

In my opinion the manner in which Arttu is being handled is proper and smart. He played in Europe on a bigger surface. Just as the AHL orientation worked out well for Olofsson I'm hoping that same type of handling will work out for R-2. With Mitts the onus is on him. My preference is to have him play heavy minutes in Rochester instead of throwing him into the big league mix when he hasn't earned a spot. I haven't given up on him but he is not entitled to playing time until he earns it. 

I'm aware that this is a shortened and compressed schedule against tougher teams. So there is a greater urgency than with a standard season. But it's too soon to panic. With the exception of the first game in general the Sabres have played well against good teams. So let's wait a little longer to see how this plays out before acting out of desperation that in the long term usually causes more problems than solves. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@johnc.  Don't get me wrong.  Hall is an excellent player a huge improvement for our team talent wise.  The only real issue was and is is whether LW was a need.  I'd argue it wasn't.  Skinner and VO were already top 6 LW on the roster.  We had a need at RW.  Other then Reinhart, he lacked and still lack proven RW talent to play in our top 6 or even top 9.  The Skinner mess is a direct result of sighing Hall.  If Skinner or Olofsson could move to RW and be effective then Hall works perfectly.  But it hasn't happened.

Lets say they are handling the kids properly.  That "fact" lends credence to my assertion that KA needed a valid backup plan in case the Staal acquisition didn't work and Eakin ain't it.  

So ask yourself, would be be better without Hall, but with an upgrade in goal and a good scoring RW like Toffoli instead?  I'd argue we'd be better off with the RW and G, but that is obviously speculation and we need to make what we have work and so far the results show it isn't working.  

Edited January 21, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@johnc.  Don't get me wrong.  Hall is an excellent player a huge improvement for our team talent wise.  The only real issue was and is is whether LW was a need.  I'd argue it wasn't.  Skinner and VO were already top 6 LW on the roster.  We had a need at RW.  Other then Reinhart, he lacked and still lack proven RW talent to play in our top 6 or even top 9.  The Skinner mess is a direct result of sighing Hall.  If Skinner or Olofsson could move to RW and be effective then Hall works perfectly.  But it hasn't happened.

Lets say they are handling the kids properly.  That "fact" lends credence to my assertion that KA needed a valid backup plan in case the Staal acquisition didn't work and Eakin ain't it.  

So ask yourself, would be be better without Hall, but with an upgrade in goal and a good scoring RW like Toffoli instead?  I'd argue we'd be better off with the RW and G, but that is obviously speculation and we need to make what we have work and so far the results show it isn't working.  

I don't want to come off as a tiresome scold but again I severely disagree with your Hall take and the possible repercussions that followed that acquisition. In my view the Hall acquisition has/had little to do with how it impacted Skinner and where it placed him. I say that because I believe, as you do, that Skinner should be placed on the second line regardless who ended up centering for him and played on the opposite wing. I was open to the erudite coach placing Reinhart on the second line but my first preference was keeping him on the first line with Jack and Hall. That is a golden first line that should have been assembled right from the start. To the coach's credit he quickly restored Reinhart to the Jack line where although it hasn't converted its chances it has dominated play when it was on the ice. If you have a Rolex watch you get your return on your investment by wearing it, not by burying it in the drawer where it does you no good.  

There were plenty of fantasy goalie upgrades that were promoted this offseason by the fans. But the reality is all along this new front office was invested in Ullmark as our #1 goalie. So the issue was who was going to be a replacement for Hutton? I believe the GM considered the options out there; and it's apparent that he and Krueger didn't believe that they were worth jettisoning Hutton for. I have repeatedly stated that the biggest factor determining success or failure for this team is the play of Ullmark. I still believe that even though the majority of the audience is focused on Hutton, the backup. 

So going back to your Hall question and the options that could have been taken without signing him I unequivocally contend that acquiring Hall was a bonanza acquisition that trumps all other options. 

[Thorner]

8 hours ago, tom webster said:

You are assuming that they did not try to improve the goaltending, which I believe to be an incorrect assumption. I have always been of the belief that trying isn’t good enough and they have to do all they can but in this case I believe they have. It’s not fantasy hockey, you can’t force a team to help you or count on outsmarting someone who has lost interest. As someone else stated, none of the free agent goalies were worth considering. They fell under 

A) too expensive

B) not an upgrade 

C) not interested in coming here.

Further, I believe they thought they had a deal but a couple of circumstances out of their control delayed or ended the transaction. Now they have to decide if they want to part with certain assets or hope that the current goalies are good enough.

Agree on the 1st bold. 

The second, absolutely - and it's unclear exactly what we have right now at the position, too. If the tandem that started the season remains, like in the offseason I still think upgrading the backup remains of crucial importance. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

I just saw this in the Athletic from 1/10/21.  https://theathletic.com/2308397/2021/01/10/nhl-goalie-rankings/

It seems to mirror most of the thoughts here.

Quote

 

23 (tie). Linus Ullmark, Sabres

2019-20 RECORDSV %GAASO

17-14-3

.915

2.69

1

Average 2021 tier rating: 3.10

For a guy who is 27 years old and has never played in more than 37 games in his NHL career, the 6-foot-4 Swede received a sneaky high amount of love. Especially in the goalie-coaching community.

“I’m a fan. I like his style. I love his compete. He plays with an edge,” said one. “Ullmark has paid his dues. He’s going to surprise people. He can hold his team up this year.”

“I’ve seen enough of him in Buffalo. He made some good improvements last year with (goalie coach Mike) Bales and his skill level with playing a little bit more conservative,” said another. “He’s going to be pretty consistent.”

One more vote of confidence from a coach: “He’s the better of their two goalies. I like him a lot. He’s athletic. I think he’s got a great future.”

 

While, I like Ullmark, he still is in the bottom half of the league.  Is he really a playoff caliber goalie?  No sure.  However KA has no choice but to get help.  MAF would be nice.  However, some how he needs to upgrade Hutton now.  Ullmark plays his best when forced to earn his job.  Maybe that's true for the entire Sabres roster.  

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by GASabresIUFAN

[IKnowPhysics]

More numbers.

 

Goals Saved Above Average per 60 looks at goalie performance compared to the average of all goalies.  16th ranked (ie, median of the top 31 goalies) is +0.63; this would be solid starting goaltending.

Ullmark is 32nd at -0.02; he's effectively the definition of replacement goaltender.

Hutton is 52nd at -0.81

Johansson is 59th at -1.52

If Johansson (-1.52) plays against the median starting goaltender (+0.63), the Sabres need to score (+0.63 - -1.52 = ) 2.15 more goals per game just to even up the goaltending deficit.  This is a huge barrier to winning right now.  We're 7th last in Goals Against, which is negating our being 9th best in Goals For, and we're simply not getting any help in net.