2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Curt]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He's too old now but I'm thinking in the mold of the years we heard a young RNH might be available. If a team wanted a redo and valued what could be a 1st overall like a regular 1st overall, we might we able to get a young player ready for a bigger role and sort of bypass the wait time.

Or maybe someone really needs a D prospect. The draft isn't weak for D, right? Could amount to a prospect swap, but we get a better forward. 

Basically what you are hoping for is that a team offers a trade that is a clear win.  Yes, in that case it makes sense to take the trade.  That goes for anytime you think a trade is a clear win.  It doesn’t happen very often though.

 

[Curt]

56 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Does Hughes now drop into the 2nd round because of injury? Or does the name alone elevate his position?

https://theathletic.co.uk/2464036/2021/03/21/nhl-draft -news-2021-prospect-luke-hughes-injured/ 

He is seen as a pretty sure thing to go top-10.  He will be back on the ice from this injury in a few months.  It’s not something that is going to be a long term issue for him, so I don’t see why this should cause him to drop from from top 10 pick to 2nd rounder.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Basically what you are hoping for is that a team offers a trade that is a clear win.  Yes, in that case it makes sense to take the trade.  That goes for anytime you think a trade is a clear win.  It doesn’t happen very often though.

 

right thanks

[ubkev]

Did anyone else happen to see that the guy who runs the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel is now scouting for the Canadiens? That was my favorite draft site. So now I'm bummed. @LGR4GM got any other good draft guys on YouTube? 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, ubkev said:

Did anyone else happen to see that the guy who runs the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel is now scouting for the Canadiens? That was my favorite draft site. So now I'm bummed. @LGR4GM got any other good draft guys on YouTube? 

Not like Yannick St-Pierre. 

[LGR4GM]

This will get you some highlights

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNh5N_V7w920Napav0Q9Wuw

[ubkev]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not like Yannick St-Pierre. 

Can we convince Marty Biron to quit the broadcast in favor of being a full time YouTuber?

[LGR4GM]

Just now, ubkev said:

Can we convince Marty Biron to quit the broadcast in favor of being a full time YouTuber?

I wish. Honestly the NHL loves missing out on oppurtunties like this. They could easily produce a 50 video series 10-15 minutes going over the top 50 prospects and post it to youtube. 

[Marvin]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wish. Honestly the NHL loves missing out on oppurtunties like this. They could easily produce a 50 video series 10-15 minutes going over the top 50 prospects and post it to youtube. 

How obvious is this?  I would have assumed that they have already done so.

[LGR4GM]

Shift by shift

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ao2U-FPBimWH-_VgYazg

[Curt]

43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wish. Honestly the NHL loves missing out on oppurtunties like this. They could easily produce a 50 video series 10-15 minutes going over the top 50 prospects and post it to youtube. 

The NBA did something like this recently. The made 20-30 min videos where an analyst sat down with the draft prospect, did a short interview and went over some game tape, asking the prospect about why he did dis or dat in certain situations and breaking down some plays.  It was kind of interesting.

Its as much about introducing the next group of NBA players as it is about the game tape, but it’s interesting, it’s good marketing, and it’s not expensive.

[LGR4GM]

22 hours ago, ubkev said:

Did anyone else happen to see that the guy who runs the Draft Dynasty YouTube channel is now scouting for the Canadiens? That was my favorite draft site. So now I'm bummed. @LGR4GM got any other good draft guys on YouTube? 

Scouching reports

 

[#freejame]

Have we secured a top three pick yet?

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Have we secured a top three pick yet?

Uh, yes. It feels secure.

[Thorner]

Imagine if this was a normal draft with some studs at the top. The losses would feel at least a bit less pointless. 

'18 was a weak draft year too, looking back. 

Balls. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Imagine if this was a normal draft with some studs at the top. The losses would feel at least a bit less pointless. 

'18 was a weak draft year too, looking back. 

Balls. 

On the bright side, ‘22 and ‘23 drafts are good.  So after they blow this team up, we’ll have things to look forward to the next couple years.  😉😭

[LGR4GM]

Podcast: Cole Sillinger and Connor Bedard (Bedard is 15 and not draft eligible) 

https://www.si.com/hockey/podcast/the-hockey-news-prospect-podcast-connor-bedard-is-a-star-and-cole-sillinger-interview

[LGR4GM]

I don't remember if I posted dis one but Beniers. 

So what do I like about him? 

Beniers plays the game how I want it to be played. Down low and from low to middle. He is in constant motion unless he is in space by the net or screening the goalie. When he gets the puck he takes it low and looks for dat pass back into the slot which opens because he goes low forcing the defense to collapse. He gives 0 about contact. He will play through it and into it. His passing is underrated and goes with really good vision. I think his shot needs to be quicker but he generates good power and appears to be accurate. His skating is very good and he accelerates quickly and has strong edges. He doesn't give up on pucks and he always seems to be around the net and causing chaos.

I wish there was more game footage I could share but I will just post his shift by shift again. dis shows some of his defensive game better. There's a constant motion and he doesn't always win battles which is important to note but he also never "loses" them. By dat I mean sure he might lose the puck battle but he immediately gets back in position or goes back to work on the retrieval which is important. Beniers also does a good job of getting the puck into space, he puts it in places where teammates can make a play. He is constantly working to get possession and he makes smart plays and passes once he has the puck. His game is very much a team game but he can go solo if needed. The other thing is his passes are very clever at times and he has really good vision on exits. He's a true center as well, he has the IQ and skating to play it and he does it very well. There is a reason Kent Johnson plays on his wing and not the other way around. 

The nice thing I like about his college tape is dat I don't have to wonder if he's simply bigger/more mature/overtalented for dat league. I think it was exactly where he needed to be dis year and I think from what I have read dat he improved as the year progressed. I might leave him there another year if I drafted him. Let him have a full NCAA season and experience. I also like dat he didn't go to hometown Harvard and went away to college because I think dat forces you to grow but dat is an aside and not vital to his evaluation.

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by LGR4GM

[Thorner]

Dat's a good one ^

[LGR4GM]

Because I love you, I am going to pull the last 3 years of production from the draft elligible players so I have  baseline for EVP1 and P1GP to compare dis year too since dis year is a dumpster fire. 

[LGR4GM]

Czech 20 league is a basically undrafted and no one is really good. 

[LGR4GM]

haha the NJD selected a guy out of the OHL who scored at a 0.1607 rate at 61st overall... bahahahahahahahahaha 

Let me put dat in perspective, he would be 17th in the OHL for defenders dat year and... he's something like 50th for the 3 years I looked at. I don't have a problem with taking a defender like dis but at 61st overall... you ain't getting value. These are the types of guys dat if they have a skillset (I would bet he is a shutdown guy) you take flyers on them with your 5-7th round picks. 

 

[LGR4GM]

In dat same draft 5 picks later, Montreal would take Cam Hillis, someone who might actually play in the NHL and be useful. It is not only about production but if you can't produce at lower levels, you better have a dam good reason as to why. 

[North Buffalo]

Ah the Marty Dis and Dat... took me a second btw nice write-up... not a Dis

Edited March 26, 2021 by North Buffalo

[LGR4GM]

Let me put Seth Jarvis in perspective. In the 3 years of WHL data I am looking at 2018-2020, Jarvis is #1 in Primary Points Per Game so goals and first assist. He is in first by .135 compared to the next player (connor zary). Only 4 players in the OHL outperformed him and they are Svechnikov, Byfield, Rossi, and Perfetti. Only one player in the Q outperformed him and dat was Lafreniere. Jack Quinn is just behind Jarvis in the OHL. Cozens is in his draft year was .3 PrPPG behind what Jarvis did in his draft year. 

Perfetti btw just barely wins out here. All of dat while playing in the league with the least scoring of the 3. Just found dat interesting.

No dis isn't about me loving on Jarvis... well not only. The put is dis is why you build league specific cohort models. You can look at the historic scoring in a league and find outliers or even guys who are at or near the top and then look at their comparable who may already be in the NHL. I can only go back 3 years right now which sucks. But the Sabres if they wanted could go back 10 or 20. If I were them I would use a rolling 12-15 year sample.