2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Buffalonill]

Now you all want my raty

[Weave]

I have a nagging thought that someone came up with a plan to mine an under-mined resource the way Detroit did 15-20yrs ago.  With COVID limiting scouting opportunities across the various leagues maybe they thought they had a high percentage chance of seeing players other teams may not see.

[Hoss]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Other than passing on Autu Raty at 33 (which I think is a major mistake) the Sabres appear to have targeted the Russian MHL as somewhere where there is a market inefficiency. Drafting is all about exploiting value and making sure you get value at each pick. This is why I say the should have drafted Raty over Poltapov because Raty represented more value. That all said looking at their draft they really went after MHL's top guys and came away with 2 of the 3. I think they see the MHL as a place where they can get good players at a value spot in the draft. Maybe I am wrong though and they just watched the U18's and really liked the Russian kids. Still they went out of their way to add 4 Russians when Buffalo almost never drafts them.  

 

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

I have a nagging thought that someone came up with a plan to mine an under-mined resource the way Detroit did 15-20yrs ago.  With COVID limiting scouting opportunities across the various leagues maybe they thought they had a high percentage chance of seeing players other teams may not see.

This approach is similar to Liger’s approach regarding shorter players. They represent better value the later you get because a lot of them fall for a reason that should not impact their actual projection (in this case, being short is being Russian). It definitely seemed to be a strategy and I’m definitely intrigued by it. A draft with a strategy beats a draft without a strategy. (Sorry if I’m misrepresenting your theory, Liger, this is just how I’ve interpreted it)

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

 

This approach is similar to Liger’s approach regarding shorter players. They represent better value the later you get because a lot of them fall for a reason that should not impact their actual projection (in this case, being short is being Russian). It definitely seemed to be a strategy and I’m definitely intrigued by it. A draft with a strategy beats a draft without a strategy. (Sorry if I’m misrepresenting your theory, Liger, this is just how I’ve interpreted it)

No no, I don't do that with players based on size. I do that with players based on draft year age. Robert Orr is a fantastic pick for Carolina because he's absurdly young, his height is irrelevant. 

Olen Zellweger isn't great because he's short but because he's really young for his class. 

[Taro T]

18 minutes ago, Hoss said:

 

This approach is similar to Liger’s approach regarding shorter players. They represent better value the later you get because a lot of them fall for a reason that should not impact their actual projection (in this case, being short is being Russian). It definitely seemed to be a strategy and I’m definitely intrigued by it. A draft with a strategy beats a draft without a strategy. (Sorry if I’m misrepresenting your theory, Liger, this is just how I’ve interpreted it)

Something that would be intriguing to see how/if it would work is to see a team focus on a particular position in a draft if it seems that draft is particularly strong at that position (or conversely particularly weak at a slot or 2).  Figuring out WHICH 18 year old will make it will likely remain an art for a very long time, but figuring out what a draft is deep at should be more of a science.

It would seem to increase one's odds of hitting on a player having more lottery tickets in a particular lottery, right?

Doubt the Sabres were doing that, but the way they went after W's might give us a chance to see if there might be merit to the idea.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Taro T

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sabres

Full draft grades and reports on all the picks we had: https://theathletic.com/2718007/2021/07/24/sabres-2021-nhl-draft-picks-grades-fit-and-full-scouting-reports/

 

Was 8 their rank for day two or overall?

Edited July 25, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Day 2

Day 1 they got 7th... so really 8 is probably their total  rank. 

[Digger]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Day 2

Day 1 they got 7th... so really 8 is probably their total  rank. 

Not trying to be a smart ass but how do you get 7th for day 1 when you pick the consensus #1 player (at least according to media from poll of scouts) and then you get a second pick in the first round.

[LGR4GM]

 

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Digger said:

Not trying to be a smart ass but how do you get 7th for day 1 when you pick the consensus #1 player (at least according to media from poll of scouts) and then you get a second pick in the first round.

Idk

[triumph_communes]

They specifically stated they were emphasizing Czech and Russian players to overcome previous overlooks in the strategy. And that they weren’t planning to pick all those Russians but that’s how their board played out. 

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

They specifically stated they were emphasizing Czech and Russian players to overcome previous overlooks in the strategy. And that they weren’t planning to pick all those Russians but that’s how their board played out. 

So they contradicted themselves in one sentence?

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So they contradicted themselves in one sentence?

It's stratergy. 

[triumph_communes]

24 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So they contradicted themselves in one sentence?

Their board had bias. Didn’t mean they had a quota 

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No no, I don't do that with players based on size. I do that with players based on draft year age. Robert Orr is a fantastic pick for Carolina because he's absurdly young, his height is irrelevant. 

Olen Zellweger isn't great because he's short but because he's really young for his class. 

Fair enough! I knew I was on the right track even if I had the wrong attribute.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Now you all want my raty

Yeah, in the 2nd round.  Not in the top 5 like you were advocacy for at one point.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

Fair enough! I knew I was on the right track even if I had the wrong attribute.

Robert Orr is a great example, 32 points in 41 games but he did it at a September 1 birthday. So you have to say, okay if he continues to progress he might be an 18 year old dropping more than a ppg while other 18 yr olds are just draft eligible. 

Jack Quinn for example is a Sept 19 birthday. So when evaluating those 2 players, if they were in the same draft, you would have to compare Quinn's 17 year to Orr's draft year. That's what I think about.

[Hoss]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Robert Orr is a great example, 32 points in 41 games but he did it at a September 1 birthday. So you have to say, okay if he continues to progress he might be an 18 year old dropping more than a ppg while other 18 yr olds are just draft eligible. 

Jack Quinn for example is a Sept 19 birthday. So when evaluating those 2 players, if they were in the same draft, you would have to compare Quinn's 17 year to Orr's draft year. That's what I think about.

This is something I’ll have to consider a little more going into next year’s evaluations which is something I’ll probably do sooner rather than later. Hope to be a bit more involved in the process next year.

What was your impression of Connor Hurley his draft year?

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Other than passing on Autu Raty at 33 (which I think is a major mistake) the Sabres appear to have targeted the Russian MHL as somewhere where there is a market inefficiency. Drafting is all about exploiting value and making sure you get value at each pick. This is why I say the should have drafted Raty over Poltapov because Raty represented more value. That all said looking at their draft they really went after MHL's top guys and came away with 2 of the 3. I think they see the MHL as a place where they can get good players at a value spot in the draft. Maybe I am wrong though and they just watched the U18's and really liked the Russian kids. Still they went out of their way to add 4 Russians when Buffalo almost never drafts them.  

Poltapov will be Aho to Raty’s Puuljarvi. 
Best Sabre 2nd rounder since Danny Gare. 
Because I want him to be.

7 hours ago, Digger said:

Not trying to be a smart ass but how do you get 7th for day 1 when you pick the consensus #1 player (at least according to media from poll of scouts) and then you get a second pick in the first round.

It was in part relative to position and opportunity - the gained little for taking the obvious in Power and lost a bit for taking Rosen, according to the Athletic board.

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Poltapov will be Aho to Raty’s Puuljarvi. 
Best Sabre 2nd rounder since Danny Gare. 
Because I want him to be.

It was in part relative to position and opportunity - the gained little for taking the obvious in Power and lost a bit for taking Rosen, according to the Athletic board.

I'd be happy is he turns into the best 2nd rd pick since Pommers.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Hoss said:

This is something I’ll have to consider a little more going into next year’s evaluations which is something I’ll probably do sooner rather than later. Hope to be a bit more involved in the process next year.

What was your impression of Connor Hurley his draft year?

I don't remember. 

Looking at his stats, not good. I strongly dislike when a guy plays high school hockey his draft year. His small ushl sample is bad too. 

[rakish]

10 hours ago, Hoss said:

This is something I’ll have to consider a little more going into next year’s evaluations which is something I’ll probably do sooner rather than later. Hope to be a bit more involved in the process next year.

What was your impression of Connor Hurley his draft year?

I haven't worked on this chart in a while, so it's not current. But here's 5 2nd rounders, 2 successful, and 4 Sabre picks. That is Aho the Finn.  I gave you an extra year (to 18 or dy+1). Two dots means he played on 2 different teams

 

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by rakish
2 dots sentence

[Hoss]

9 hours ago, rakish said:

I haven't worked on this chart in a while, so it's not current. But here's 5 2nd rounders, 2 successful, and 4 Sabre picks. That is Aho the Finn.  I gave you an extra year (to 18 or dy+1). Two dots means he played on 2 different teams

 

 

Good stuff. Thank you!

[rakish]

@LGR4GM The 500 posts for the week is, um... impressive, more than 70 per day.

Mom's Basement for 2021. 

I think  people under-emphasize the importance of order vs. valuation. A look at my board (page 79 in this topic) you'll see that if I had Cossa...Zellweger... Olsson instead of Stankoven...Olsson, I would have gained for myself a #14 pick I essentially didn't use, so I wasted the #14 pick by putting Cossa one spot behind Stankoven.  Draftlook has the same issue, by drafting Wallstadt first (as compared to Liger's pick of Wallstadt at #14), Draftlook ended up with Wallstadt and Lambos instead of Eklund and Wallstadt, essentially trading #1 for the player selected #26.

I thought draftlook had more picks than they did, that's why they ran out of selections, I think they listed 32 picks. Liger ran out of picks for the last one, as did Button.

I was hoping to draft a goalie, I missed a couple opportunities by just one pick, oh well. The downside to having to make my list beforehand.

 

Sabres
#1     Owen Power (D),#14     Isak Rosén (F),#33     Prokhor Poltapov (F),#53     Alexander Kisakov (F)
#88     Stiven Sardaryan (F),#95     Joshua Bloom (F),#97     Olivier Nadeau (F),#159     Viljami Marjala (F)
#161     William von Barnekow (F),#188     Nikita V. Novikov (D),#193     Tyson Kozak (F)

Pronman
#1 Owen Power,#14 Chaz Lucius,#33 Nikita Chibrikov,#53 Kirill Kirsanov,
#88 Justin Robidas, #95 Olivier Nadeau, #97  Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Lorenzo Canonica (not drafted)
#161 Daniil Lazutin (not drafted), #188 Ty Gallagher, #193 Daniil Pylenkov

Liger
#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxx

Wheeler
#1 Owen Power, #14 Chaz Lucius, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 Dylan Duke (F) #95 Joshua Roy #97 Connor Roulette, #159 Peter Reynolds (not drafted)
#161 Jeremy Wilmer (not selected), #188 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #193 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)

Button
#1 Owen Power, #14 Fedor Svechkov, #33 Samu Tuomaala (F), #53 Benjamin Gaudreau (G)
#88 Dylan Duke #95 James Malatesta (F) #97 Robert Orr (F), #159 Hunter Strand (not drafted)
#161 Dmitri Zugan (not drafted), #188 Nikita V. Novikov (D), #193 xxxxxxxxx

Sam (@draftlook)
#1 Jesper Wallstedt, #14 Carson Lambos, #33 Sasha Pastujov, #53 Sean Behrens (D)
#88 xxxxxxxxx

42jerks
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jack Peart, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Sasha Pastujov
#88 Aidan Hreschuk (D), #95 Conner Roulette (F), #97 Guillaume Richard (D), #159 Kelle Ervasti (not drafted)
#161 Francesco Arcuri (F), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Zack Stringer

FCHockey
#1 Owen Power, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson (F)
#88 Dylan Duke (F), #95 Ty Voit (F), #97 Vladislav Lukashevich (D), #159 Matvei Petrov (F)
#161 Connor Lockhart (F), #188 Dmitri Katelevsky, #193 Trevor Wong (not drafted)

rakish
#1 Dylan Guenther, #14 Logan Stankoven, #33 Anton Olsson, #53 Connor Roulette
#88 Jack O'Brien (not drafted), #95 Victor Stjernborg, #97 Niko Huuhtanen (F), #159 Simon Knak (F)
#161 Mikey Milne (not drafted), #188 Eric Alarie (not drafted), #193 Rhett Rhinehart (not drafted)
 

[LGR4GM]

I like my draft Rakish. Sorry I ran out of players.

#1 William Eklund, #14 Jesper Wallstedt, #33 Aatu Raty, #53 Simon Robertsson
#88 Dylan Duke, #95 Robert Orr #97 Sean Tschigerl, #159 Elias Stenman (not drafted)
#161 Trevor Wong (not drafted), #188 Simon Motew (not drafted), #193 xxxxxx

Wallstedt at 14 and Raty at 33 are big gets IMPO. Robertsson at 53 and Duke at 88 really make me happy. Orr and Tschigerl at 95 and 97 are great value picks with high upside. I am still surprised Motew went undrafted, that IMPO is a mistake by teams.