2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Curt]

1 hour ago, steveoath said:

Is this HIS rankings? Or based on amalgamated rankings. I was sure he didn't have Power at 1.

If you look at the google document there are several tabs.  One appears to be ordered as something of a composite rankings.  Another is Scouch’s personal rankings.

[rakish]

I meant to look at Pittsburgh too, but I forgot, I'll make a jpeg and add Pittsburgh below

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Adjust for age kids. 

 

Sure, adjust for age, but HOW does one properly adjust for age?  

Only 3.8% of forwards drafted become "stars" (however defined in this case).  And though there's the obvious (and well documented) decline in # of players that get drafted as we move from January to December (with the September bump due to that being the draft cutoff age) due to youth leagues all having a firm 12/31 - 1/1 age cutoff date & the bigger kids generally getting into better programs than their smaller later birthday'd brethren; there isn't any immediately apparent order to when the "star" forwards are born.  

In raw #'s, May has the most stars, March the fewest with January & November being right in the middle.

Would expect cofactors such as height at a particular age start to provide more order.

[rakish]

Pittsburgh, you can read these now, right?

 

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Sure, adjust for age, but HOW does one properly adjust for age?  

Only 3.8% of forwards drafted become "stars" (however defined in this case).  And though there's the obvious (and well documented) decline in # of players that get drafted as we move from January to December (with the September bump due to that being the draft cutoff age) due to youth leagues all having a firm 12/31 - 1/1 age cutoff date & the bigger kids generally getting into better programs than their smaller later birthday'd brethren; there isn't any immediately apparent order to when the "star" forwards are born.  

In raw #'s, May has the most stars, March the fewest with January & November being right in the middle.

Would expect cofactors such as height at a particular age start to provide more order.

Not like Bader is doing. I wouldn't adjust for age like that. 

[Taro T]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not like Bader is doing. I wouldn't adjust for age like that. 

So, how should one do it?

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

So, how should one do it?

You can do the way Rakish is if you want. 

[Weave]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

How far away is Wallstedt?

Wallstedt, WI or Wallstedt, GER?

2 hours ago, SDS said:

How far away is Wallstedt?

Wallstedt, WI or Wallstedt, GER?

[SDS]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Sure, adjust for age, but HOW does one properly adjust for age?  

Only 3.8% of forwards drafted become "stars" (however defined in this case).  And though there's the obvious (and well documented) decline in # of players that get drafted as we move from January to December (with the September bump due to that being the draft cutoff age) due to youth leagues all having a firm 12/31 - 1/1 age cutoff date & the bigger kids generally getting into better programs than their smaller later birthday'd brethren; there isn't any immediately apparent order to when the "star" forwards are born.  

In raw #'s, May has the most stars, March the fewest with January & November being right in the middle.

Would expect cofactors such as height at a particular age start to provide more order.

I read it simply as this, in youth sports, older players are generally seen as better players in their age group. They are likely to continually make top teams even though much of their talent advantage is due to age difference. However, if you’re young and you still manage to outplay your age group cohorts, you’re more likely to be more talented than the older kids are in the first place.

[pi2000]

8 minutes ago, SDS said:

I read it simply as this, in youth sports, older players are generally seen as better players in their age group. They are likely to continually make top teams even though much of their talent advantage is due to age difference. However, if you’re young and you still manage to outplay your age group cohorts, you’re more likely to be more talented than the older kids are in the first place.

Exactly this.

I have 2 boys, one born in Feb the other late Dec.    The Feb kid has received way more opportunities to play at higher levels.

[SDS]

Just now, pi2000 said:

Exactly this.

I have 2 boys, one born in Feb the other late Dec.    The Feb kid has received way more opportunities to play at higher levels.

Both my kids play/played soccer and are late late birthdays. US Soccer changed their age groups to birth years about 5 years ago and it immediately put them behind most of their teammates. Ever since, their teams have been constructed of 85% birthdays in the first half of the year and 15% in the second half. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

Is this HIS rankings? Or based on amalgamated rankings. I was sure he didn't have Power at 1.

Sort the sheet by ranking, it's one of the columns. He had Power 6th or 7th.

[steveoath]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sort the sheet by ranking, it's one of the columns. He had Power 6th or 7th.

Aha, that makes sense. 

[LGR4GM]

I can't get on board the Edvinsson train. I think he's a big player who doesn't do a lot that jumps out at you. Other than his size, idk what I am supposed to get excited about and I have looked at and watched a bunch on him and it just doesn't add up. He's not even in my top 20 at this point. 

[Marvin]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I can't get on board the Edvinsson train. I think he's a big player who doesn't do a lot that jumps out at you. Other than his size, idk what I am supposed to get excited about and I have looked at and watched a bunch on him and it just doesn't add up. He's not even in my top 20 at this point. 

I suspect we are back where, being "a big, physical kid" trumps everything else.  Which is hilarious given the charts shown on how the somewhat undersized players comparatively overperform their draft position.

[JohnC]

Attached is a WGR link. There are two segments that deal with hockey. There is a 21 min segment with Craig Buttons who talks about the draft and the Sabres' trade situation. His top player in this draft is Power. He is also high on Beniers. The more I hear the commentary on the draft the firmer I become on selecting Power. However, I understand why others are advocating for Beniers. 

The second segment is an interview with the former coach of JJ Peterka. This is a 9 min segment. 

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/authors/howard-and-jeremy

[rakish]

1 hour ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

I suspect we are back where, being "a big, physical kid" trumps everything else.  Which is hilarious given the charts shown on how the somewhat undersized players comparatively overperform their draft position.

You're overgeneralizing.

The 6'5" player is great to select within the first 15 picks, but if you get past 15, he's not athletic enough to overcome the clumsyness the height creates. Yet teams will draft the 6'5" in the 5th round even though they don't score because they are just shooting darts. So it is very true that undersized players outperform their peers (because GM's undervalue their scoring, and overvalue height past pick 15), but it has nothing to do with Power or Edvinsson being good defensemen, both are legitimate top 5 picks, of which, there are about 9.

[dudacek]

My impression Eidvinsson is not that he’s a big oaf overrated for his size, but that he’s a highly skilled big man with all the tools, but questions around his actual game.

To me, he’s kinda like the Seiders and the Brobergs and the Nurses - D-man prototypes that seem to get picked between 5-15 every year. Some disappoint, some develop into studs.

Dont like him myself, but I don’t think he’d be overdrafted in the top 10. I think outside the top 20 is too low.

[rakish]

Now that I've covered the general overview, and a guess at how other teams are doing their analytics, I'll move on to individual players. My memory is that this is pretty short, maybe 3 minutes, on Jeremi Tammela

 

[Flashsabre]

https://www.tsn.ca/video/power-on-prospect-of-being-selected-first-by-sabres-winning-gold-with-canada~2238763

[Gatorman0519]

30 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.tsn.ca/video/power-on-prospect-of-being-selected-first-by-sabres-winning-gold-with-canada~2238763

It won’t let me watch it… the skinny? 

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

It won’t let me watch it… the skinny? 

Interview with Owen Power. Said he would be honoured to be drafted by the Sabres and join the organization. Said Buffalo is close to home.  Thinks he could step into the NHL but also thinks Michigan would be good for development too.

[rakish]

Simon Knak

[rakish]

Beniers

[Brawndo]

Austin Brass from Die by the Blade put together a list of 5 players that could be taken with every Sabres Pick 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2021/7/10/22570625/buffalo-sabres-2021-nhl-draft-guide-profile