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2021 NHL Draft Rankings

Brawndo

By Brawndo
in The Aud Club

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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Finally made it to #20 on my draft board. This year is exceedingly difficult as you're looking at info from leagues players don't normally come from and trying to piece it all together. It doesn't help that half the prospects either didn't play at all or only have 10-15 games this season. 

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Flashsabre First Liner

Flashsabre

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https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/sabres-to-meet-with-presumed-no-1-pick-owen-power-as-draft-prep-intensifies/article_438e6932-de58-11eb-9931-03692d14adfb.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Recap: meeting Eklund today, Power tomorrow.  
 

Power is Sabres top rated DMan, Eklund is Sabres top rated Forward.

underlying metrics show Eklund is top offensive player in draft.

Sabres preparing for 2nd high draft pick.

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LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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I say allllll the time how the size bias is a real thing that keeps teams from drafting smart. It is just ahead of the age bias (gotta adjust for age). 

For example when looking at Eklund, he is old for his class just like Beniers. So we need to factor that in but there is a catch here. Eklund is somewhat unique because even though he is old for his class, he played all season in the 3rd-ish best men's league in the world (NHL, KHL, AHL/SHL, LIIGA). This matters because what happens in junior leagues is the older guys have more experience and are physically more mature than their peers. This leads to older guys producing at a higher clip even though it is a function of age not talent (roughly, this isn't a 1 for 1 thing). Jack Quinn is a candidate for this as he doesn't really produce in his 17 year season but does as an 18 year old, could be a late bloomer but you have to be a little cautious and put that in context. With Eklund, he played his 17 year partly with the j20 and partly with the SHL. His j20 numbers are really good and his SHL numbers are meh (again 17 in a men's league is really hard). Fast forward to this year and he's an 18 year old in the men's league where he put up great numbers, he isn't an old kid feasting on younger competition which is why I don't worry about the age with him and same thing goes for Beniers. Eklund and Beniers have both "played up" meaning they have both played at a level that is above their age (J20 at 17 and SHL at 18 or USDP at 17 and NCAA at 18) where the competition is on average older than these players. In reality a 17 year old Eklund could play in the J20 league but that makes him young for that league and the SHL at 18 makes him exceedingly young. This isn't to say these situations are unique as multiple draft eligible players do this each year but it helps to contextualize their production.

I am writing this to also write this, Olen Zellweger on the other hand is 11 months younger than Eklund so you don't compare him to Eklund's SHL year but to his J20. Zellweger who is 5 days shy of being 2022 eligible put up just over point per game in the WHL as a 17 year old. So when adjusting for age his 17 year season is close to Eklund's J20 especially once you adjust for position. Zellweger will get underdrafted because he is only 5'10" jus like Eklund but the important part is how productive these players have been in their respective 17 year old seasons. You bank on them increasing that production as they physically and mentally mature. Eklund going back to the SHL is smart as he will be more in line with the league this coming season both physically and mentally. 

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

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2 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

So where did he get ranked for the unsubscribers?

Oh sorry, this was the top 10 for their mock draft (it's the 4th one I think they have done)

  1. Power
  2. Beniers
  3. Guenther
  4. Hughes (this pick might be locked in)
  5. Simon Edvinsson
  6. Mason McTavish
  7. Kent Johnson
  8. Brandt Clarke
  9. William Eklund
  10. Chaz Lucius
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Flashsabre First Liner

Flashsabre

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4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Yikes! I want no part of Clarke at the top of the draft.  To me Clarke and Laaksonen are basically the same dman.  Clarke probably has a higher upside but style wise they fill the same role.

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