2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, #freejame said:

It’s also probably non-sense but when your two top-5 pick brothers all say it isn’t even close who the best player in the family is it just adds to his stature. A larger and allegedly faster Quinn Hughes sounds pretty amazing. 

Alex Nylander was talked about as having more skill and being better than his brother. That didn't work out at all. Luke might have faster straight line speed than Quinn but Quinn is lightning in short areas of the ice and that is currently what I think holds Dahlin back. Personally I don't care what the family tells me, I care how he plays because he won't just be playing against them and he won't have the same dev path. That all said, he's a decent player and someone to consider, there is just one rumor I heard about him that I haven't been able to track so I have small pause. It was a passing comment about Hughes being entitled because of what his family has done and I have not seen it again but I think about it from time to time. 

36 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

That would sorely tempt me at #3.  The age thing usually so works against players born later in the year that some leagues have age gradations by half-year.  I read somewhere that a majority of draft "steals" are those who are smaller because of their age.  If he is in the top tier while still being one of the youngest players in his draft class, then we should very seriously consider him.

Hughes isn't smaller due to age (Born Sept 9th 2003 and is 6'2" 176lbs) but I think about the extra year of playing that Beniers has had. It doesn't always work like that though but it can. Nick Robertson was good in his draft year but slid and he's only 8 days older than Quinn. Hughes being so young for his class is just interesting but it also means he's harder to project. 

18 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Does Guenther's u18s, give you any pause? 

Me personally? No, he was fine in the tournament. He wasn't terrible and he didn't wow me from what I could watch. It's a short tourney after a weird season so unless there's something that glaringly says "PROBLEMS!" I don't think much of it. It could simply be that the U18 was a bit tougher than what the whl had been and Guenther was just a little underprepared but we saw sparks of his talent and in tournaments like that as well, you don't know what the kids are being asked to do and who they play with is important. For example again, Jack Quinn at the U20 was not asked to score goals but instead he was to shut down the other teams lines and play solid 2-way hockey, his point totals reflect that. Beniers was in the same boat. Guenther probably wasn't told that but maybe it was a "hey stay above the puck we don't want odd man rushes" and so he did that and took a few less chances. 

I am a tough person to ask on Guenther because I watch him and I don't love him. He does some things really well but there is just something missing when I watch his game. Eklund is currently sitting just ahead of him and I think I will keep that. 

Edited June 1, 2021 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Sidenote. There are a lot of posters who want a Marchand like player. Someone who pisses off the other team and can wheel snipe celly. That type exists in this draft and well I think Logan Stankoven has been mentioned a bit, the other option is this guy. 

 

[Marvin]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sidenote. There are a lot of posters who want a Marchand like player. Someone who pisses off the other team and can wheel snipe celly. That type exists in this draft and well I think Logan Stankoven has been mentioned a bit, the other option is this guy. 

 

Where do you think he is projected?

[ubkev]

42 minutes ago, #freejame said:

It’s also probably non-sense but when your two top-5 pick brothers all say it isn’t even close who the best player in the family is it just adds to his stature. A larger and allegedly faster Quinn Hughes sounds pretty amazing. 

The good nylander also said the bad nylander was the best nylander. Brothers lie to make their little brother feel/sound better. No competitor thinks their brother is better than them.

[jsb]

54 minutes ago, #freejame said:

It’s also probably non-sense but when your two top-5 pick brothers all say it isn’t even close who the best player in the family is it just adds to his stature. A larger and allegedly faster Quinn Hughes sounds pretty amazing. 

 

48 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Sold

William Nylander said the same thing about his brother, how did that work out??

Read page 53 and didn't get to 54 yet, I see I wasn't the only one thinking that.

Edited June 1, 2021 by jsb
Already covered

[WildCard]

19 minutes ago, jsb said:

 

William Nylander said the same thing about his brother, how did that work out??

Read page 53 and didn't get to 54 yet, I see I wasn't the only one thinking that.

 

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

He is the youngest in the top tier meaning that is a very real possibility due to his age. He's 10 months younger than Beniers, 2 years younger than Quinn. 

This as well

[Crusader1969]

There's been a lot of Mason McTavish love lately. Could be a bit of a surprise pick at 3.

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Trading up or down in the top of the first is highly unlikely to happen.

Yes.

The composition of this first round, the fact Jack Eichel is on the market, and the fact there are teams drafting in the top 10 who might be interested elevate the chances.

[#freejame]

50 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Alex Nylander was talked about as having more skill and being better than his brother. That didn't work out at all. Luke might have faster straight line speed than Quinn but Quinn is lightning in short areas of the ice and that is currently what I think holds Dahlin back. Personally I don't care what the family tells me, I care how he plays because he won't just be playing against them and he won't have the same dev path. That all said, he's a decent player and someone to consider, there is just one rumor I heard about him that I haven't been able to track so I have small pause. It was a passing comment about Hughes being entitled because of what his family has done and I have not seen it again but I think about it from time to time. 

Like I said, it take it with a grain of salt. I like him as a player anyway and the things you’ve mentioned play a large part in it. Would I draft him solely because he’s Quinn Hughes brother? No. Does it hurt? No. Does it move him up my rankings? No. Does his family’s comments make me more excited if we do draft him? Absolutely.
 

Besides, what’s a greater feeling than the Sabres getting the wrong brother?

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

Where do you think he is projected?

20-45

3 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

There's been a lot of Mason McTavish love lately. Could be a bit of a surprise pick at 3.

I would be shocked but recency bias and the draft are a thing. 

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

Yes.

The composition of this first round, the fact Jack Eichel is on the market, and the fact there are teams drafting in the top 10 who might be interested elevate the chances.

Sure but by like 1%. Here's eichel at #3 for stuff and #5. 

3 hours ago, #freejame said:

Like I said, it take it with a grain of salt. I like him as a player anyway and the things you’ve mentioned play a large part in it. Would I draft him solely because he’s Quinn Hughes brother? No. Does it hurt? No. Does it move him up my rankings? No. Does his family’s comments make me more excited if we do draft him? Absolutely.
 

Besides, what’s a greater feeling than the Sabres getting the wrong brother?

Sam Reinhart was the right brother. 

[#freejame]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

20-45

I would be shocked but recency bias and the draft are a thing. 

Sure but by like 1%. Here's eichel at #3 for stuff and #5. 

Sam Reinhart was the right brother. 

Shhhhh there’s a trope and I’ll be damned if I don’t play into. 

[Buffalonill]

5 hours ago, #freejame said:

It’s also probably non-sense but when your two top-5 pick brothers all say it isn’t even close who the best player in the family is it just adds to his stature. A larger and allegedly faster Quinn Hughes sounds pretty amazing. 

I remember when the staals did this and toews that worked out great 

 

Hughes will be chabot

 

[Buffalonill]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sidenote. There are a lot of posters who want a Marchand like player. Someone who pisses off the other team and can wheel snipe celly. That type exists in this draft and well I think Logan Stankoven has been mentioned a bit, the other option is this guy. 

 

He is nothing like marchand think Dustin brown. 

[Hoss]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Guenther or Eklund

He is the youngest in the top tier meaning that is a very real possibility due to his age. He's 10 months younger than Beniers, 2 years younger than Quinn. 

You’re a HUGE advocate for younger players in the draft being a big indicator that they’ll find success at the next level. Is there any research on this you could share?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

You’re a HUGE advocate for younger players in the draft being a big indicator that they’ll find success at the next level. Is there any research on this you could share?

Just anecdotes

[LGR4GM]

Crappy young players rarely just turn it up. It's what makes Quinn highly risky. Little production before a year where he has an extremely elevated sh% on a team where something like 15 of his goals also came his the pp. So we need to adjust what Quinn is based on being very old for his class. Rossi was old too but he has production b4 his draft year and elite production in it. 

It's about putting it all together. Robertson was almost a point per game player as a 17yr old draft eligible so it's reasonable to project growth there, and in his case it happened. 

Also you've got it wrong. It's not younger players will have success it's about adjusting what a player is based on age. See SEAL adjusted adjusted scoring.

[#freejame]

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I remember when the staals did this and toews that worked out great 

 

Hughes will be chabot

 

Do you mean this in a negative way? Everything I've watched and seen on Chabot is pretty solid. His own zone play could be improved, but his skating, passing and breakout are all top-notch. He has spent his whole career in Ottawa and for the most part has flourished in the toughest minutes. Hell, if Dahlin is Chabot at this point I will be pleased. He's a top-5 defender on 25 and I'm not sure there is a ton of arguments against that. Having Chabot and Dahlin on the ice for 45 minutes a game with responsible defensemen rapidly turns us into one of the better d-corps. 

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

He is nothing like marchand think Dustin brown. 

Was Dustin Brown not Marchand before Marchand becane Marchand? That's how I remember Marchand and Brown. 

[#freejame]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

You’re a HUGE advocate for younger players in the draft being a big indicator that they’ll find success at the next level. Is there any research on this you could share?

I know @LGR4GM responded saying there are anecdotes, and while I can't provide any data, I'd say it's about 50/50, and that goes for all sports. My hypothesis is it goes both ways. On one hand you have young, dedicated players who love being GOOD at hockey and it is what makes them happiness who advance to older ages and have to continually push themselves to be better. On the other hand, it can also lead to an attitude of look at all of this talent I have, I don't need to put in the same amount of work to get the same results. How a rookie in the CHL responses to that likely plays a significant role in their long term development (see Alexi Kovalev for riding by on skill and Martin St. Louis who did everything right every day of the week to make it to the league. I got halfway through and realized I didn't answer your question at all, but it's too late now. However, since I can relate anything to baseball, age most definitely plays an impact then. International players are able to sign to big league organizations at 16 years old, play a season of development ball in the DR, and move on to professional low-level baseball before Americans are even eligible for the draft. To me, as it relates to both hockey and baseball, the earlier you are exposed to mature, developed players, the quicker and easier the transition will be. 

[Buffalonill]

43 minutes ago, #freejame said:

Do you mean this in a negative way? 

Was Dustin Brown not Marchand before Marchand becane Marchand? That's how I remember Marchand and Brown. 

Nope not at all hughes and clarke are going to be the best .

 

Brown was a heavy hitter back in the day and a Tough guy 

Marchand was a little ***** cat that would run 

[#freejame]

17 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Nope not at all hughes and clarke are going to be the best .

 

Brown was a heavy hitter back in the day and a Tough guy 

Marchand was a little ***** cat that would run 

As far as I can see, Brown has been suspended more time than Marchand. I might being doing something wrong but it's difficult to find full suspension lists per player

[Crusader1969]

Definitely not advocating for the Sabres to take a goalie with their top 3 pick but it’s interesting that 5 of the 8 goalies left were taken in round 1 

another was taken in the 2nd 

 

[LGR4GM]

Age adjusted scoring

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/06/15/seal-adjusted-scoring-and-why-it-matters-for-prospects/

https://canucksarmy.com/2017/06/23/the-big-seal-reveal-adjusted-scoring-for-first-time-eligible-prospects/

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Definitely not advocating for the Sabres to take a goalie with their top 3 pick but it’s interesting that 5 of the 8 goalies left were taken in round 1 

another was taken in the 2nd 

If we do end up with additional 1st round picks because of a trade(s), I'd be looking at Wallstedt and Cossa for sure. Draft a goalie every other year to keep that pipeline stocked (we're due to pick one this year).

[Thorner]

20 hours ago, #freejame said:

It’s also probably non-sense but when your two top-5 pick brothers all say it isn’t even close who the best player in the family is it just adds to his stature. A larger and allegedly faster Quinn Hughes sounds pretty amazing. 

They said this with every Staal brother. They say this with every sibling unit. It doesn't mean anything. So agree w/the bold

Edited June 2, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

They said this with every Staal brother. They say this with every sibling unit. It doesn't mean anything 

Yup. Idc what your brothers do because that isn't who I am drafting.