2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If we keep all of our picks, this draft will make or break this team. We just started to get a little momentum with our passed picks but this is the first time in years we have a full slate of picks to really start to add depth in our prospect pool. 

It's also a system in need of a refresh given the apparent graduation:

Cozens, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Borgen and Bryson are no longer prospects, probably not R2, and maybe not Samuelsson either.

Quinn, Peterka, UPL, and Johnson are still good prospects, but who else?

Portillo, Laaksonen, Huglen, Pekar...we're pretty thin.

But adding a top 3 pick, 2 2nds and 2 thirds, and not having anyone graduate should change the way it looks in a hurry.

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If we keep all of our picks, this draft will make or break this team. We just started to get a little momentum with our passed picks but this is the first time in years we have a full slate of picks to really start to add depth in our prospect pool. 

I would argue it is therefore illogical to keep all the picks, then. We can't afford to willingly enter into a "make or break" situation with a barren scouting department 

[Buffalonill]

Listening to Karmanos im pretty confident Beniers won't be the pick.

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

I would argue it is therefore illogical to keep all the picks, then. We can't afford to willingly enter into a "make or break" situation with a barren scouting department 

Does not matter if you keep the picks or not. You still have to succeed in this draft regardless if you pick twice or nine times. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

It's also a system in need of a refresh given the apparent graduation:

Cozens, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Borgen and Bryson are no longer prospects, probably not R2, and maybe not Samuelsson either.

Quinn, Peterka, UPL, and Johnson are still good prospects, but who else?

Portillo, Laaksonen, Huglen, Pekar...we're pretty thin.

But adding a top 3 pick, 2 2nds and 2 thirds, and not having anyone graduate should change the way it looks in a hurry.

I encourage everyone to look at what Carolina does and what LA does in terms of drafting. That is how you build things out and with this draft we have a good chance to begin that process and it takes 3 years to bear fruit. The Sabres started to get it right in 2017 but then traded far too many picks for worthless vets. 2019 might be okay and 2020 is at most giving you 2 players. We really need a few drafts (2-3) of 3 or more NHL players to fix this. We simply do not have enough talent. 

[LGR4GM]

32 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Listening to Karmanos im pretty confident Beniers won't be the pick.

 

Why do you think that?

[Buffalonill]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why do you think that?

 It sounds like he wants to go with a player that has the highest calling. 

 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 It sounds like he wants to go with a player that has the highest calling. 

Really depends on how they define it. Guenther might score the most NHL points but Beniers probably ends his career with a far better 5v5 point differential. 

Could also mean they view Power or Hughes as really high ceiling guys. Considering how young Hughes is for the class, maybe they are leaning that way. 

[Buffalonill]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Really depends on how they define it. Guenther might score the most NHL points but Beniers probably ends his career with a far better 5v5 point differential. 

Could also mean they view Power or Hughes as really high ceiling guys. Considering how young Hughes is for the class, maybe they are leaning that way. 

You might need to look at Guenthers 5v5 and re-think that 

[Flashsabre]

48 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 It sounds like he wants to go with a player that has the highest calling. 

 

Please explain to us why Guenther has the highest ceiling.  After watching him play I would be worried about him hitting his floor let alone his ceiling.

[LGR4GM]

45 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

You might need to look at Guenthers 5v5 and re-think that 

It isn't about looking at Guenther. It is about what Beniers does 5v5 in the NCAA, WJC20, and basically every level he plays at. 

I like Guenther and wouldn't freak out if we drafted him. I just am not sold on him being the best player in the draft even after his 24 points in 12 games. 

[Buffalonill]

27 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Please explain to us why Guenther has the highest ceiling.  After watching him play I would be worried about him hitting his floor let alone his ceiling.

Seeing how he was ROTY in the whl ( beat wright) and 2nd in the chl for ROTY (winner wright)

And was on pace to break 100 ponits this year if not for covid 

Yeah he has a pretty high calling. 

Likes

Hes super fast 

Great 2 way game 

Can score everyway possible 

Elite playmaker 

 His motor never stops 

My only dislike is he needs to hit the weight room 

 

 How you don't like this guy blows my mind because he didn't have more points in under 18 

 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

It's also a system in need of a refresh given the apparent graduation:

Cozens, Thompson, Mittelstadt, Asplund, Borgen and Bryson are no longer prospects, probably not R2, and maybe not Samuelsson either.

Quinn, Peterka, UPL, and Johnson are still good prospects, but who else?

Portillo, Laaksonen, Huglen, Pekar...we're pretty thin.

But adding a top 3 pick, 2 2nds and 2 thirds, and not having anyone graduate should change the way it looks in a hurry.

Thinking about it a bit (and not doing any research, it is a work day and all), we might have as much prospect depth right now as we have had in most any other given offseason in a very, very long time?   Over this team’s history, outside of the couple of years that spit out Roy, Vanek, Pommers, Campbell, Miller, etc. we’ve typically only had 3-4 prospects with real chances to make the show at any given time.  
 

I’m sure there were GA’s in every era that were convinced it was more like 7-8 prospects, but I think 3-4 had been much more realistic at most points in this team’s history.

[Flashsabre]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Seeing how he was ROTY in the whl ( beat wright) and 2nd in the chl for ROTY (winner wright)

And was on pace to break 100 ponits this year if not for covid 

Yeah he has a pretty high calling. 

Likes

Hes super fast 

Great 2 way game 

Can score everyway possible 

Elite playmaker 

 His motor never stops 

My only dislike is he needs to hit the weight room 

 

 How you don't like this guy blows my mind because he didn't have more points in under 18 

 

Full disclosure: I really don’t care if they draft Guenther. I have just been playing with you because of your unhealthy obsession with crapping on Beniers for no good reason.  I prefer Beniers but Guenther brings a lot of the same qualities even though I was concerned with his game at the U18s.  Let’s see how Power and Beniers do at the Worlds. Unfortunately Eklund is injured and won’t play.

[Buffalonill]

1 minute ago, Flashsabre said:

 

Full disclosure: I really don’t care if they draft Guenther. I have just been playing with you because of your unhealthy obsession with crapping on Beniers for no good reason.  I prefer Beniers but Guenther brings a lot of the same qualities even though I was concerned with his game at the U18s.  Let’s see how Power and Beniers do at the Worlds. Unfortunately Eklund is injured and won’t play.

Beacuse  beniers isn't going to put up big numbers thats my problem if i'm drafting you 1-3 im  Expecting you to get atleast 70 -80 points 

[Buffalonill]

 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 

I wouldn’t trust these much this year with players who played extra short seasons.  It’s a rough year to go heavy off of numbers.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Seeing how he was ROTY in the whl ( beat wright) and 2nd in the chl for ROTY (winner wright)

And was on pace to break 100 ponits this year if not for covid 

Yeah he has a pretty high calling. 

Likes

Hes super fast 

Great 2 way game 

Can score everyway possible 

Elite playmaker 

 His motor never stops 

My only dislike is he needs to hit the weight room 

 

 How you don't like this guy blows my mind because he didn't have more points in under 18 

 

You are doing something I see a lot of ppl do. When the Sabres drafted Johnson I lamented them not taking Robertson or Hoglander. The result was I was asked why I hated Johnson. I don't and never did, it is about value of what's on the board. I don't dislike Guenther, I like Beniers more. That isn't the equivalent of hating a guy. 

His U18 performance doesn't really influence me at all. 

5 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 

Post Beniers' chart from hockey prospecting. 

[Buffalonill]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You are doing something I see a lot of ppl do. When the Sabres drafted Johnson I lamented them not taking Robertson or Hoglander. The result was I was asked why I hated Johnson. I don't and never did, it is about value of what's on the board. I don't dislike Guenther, I like Beniers more. That isn't the equivalent of hating a guy. 

His U18 performance doesn't really influence me at all. 

Post Beniers' chart from hockey prospecting. 

[LGR4GM]

What's interesting about the 2 comparables is that both Couture and Kucherov are point per game players in the playoffs. They really turn it up. 

Again, I like Guenther and he's still got a shot at being ranked higher than Beniers but right now he isn't for me. They are closer than some think but until I get the final SEAL charts and the scouting reports from McKeen's, Elite, Athletic, and whoever else I decide to grab this year, I gotta hold up and stick with what I have now. 

[LGR4GM]

Part I: The Great Dylan v Matty Debate

I am re-watching Guenther and it is amazing how many of his goals are backdoor tap ins. I think maybe as many as 6 of them are. Stuff like that gives me pause because how Guenther scores points I don't think translates as well as how Beniers scores points. I can be wrong but that is part of my evaluation to date. 

Guenther is passed the puck on the backdoor or alone in front and scores. My issue is that the work to create that chance is based on someone else beating a defender or disrupting the defense. Guenther isn't moving the defense but finding the soft spots in it. He reminds me a little of vanek in that way. He does have some nice passes for sure. A lot of Guenther is sliding into open areas of the ice and getting a pass or putting a pass into open areas. Again nothing wrong with that. I just don't see the dynamics I want to when I watch him, this is a personal thing to how I look at players. He isn't overly fast, this a good video of Cozens chasing him down last year (and then Guenther makes a great pass under pressure for an assist). He sometimes floats a little in the zone, not because he is lazy but because he is in open ice looking for a pass to shoot.

I specifically went back and looked at Seth Jarvis to make sure what I was seeing with Guenther jived and it does. Jarvis was making zone entries, drawing defenders to him, dishing, shooting, and otherwise creating chaos whenever he had a mind too. It is why you are drawn to him when you watch him. The play on the ice is being directed by Seth Jarvis, he drives the offense. Guenther can but he doesn't always. Sometimes he just slides into the zone and gets a nice tap in. I watched 10 of his 12 goals and 5 were tap ins or he was left alone in front. Credit to him for being in the correct spot and being very good at adjusting to passes but there was a lot less of him creating the chaos that lead to the goal. Even his passes are usually someone gave him the puck, he ran out of real estate and so he feathers a great pass on and gets the assist. AGAIN that is good and nothing wrong with it but that isn't what I personally want in my player. I want the Seth Jarvis type of guy who creates the entire chaotic sequence that leads to the goal. I looked back at Quinn as well and Quinn did a lot of deking a guy or driving the net to get his goals. He created that moment and we do see some tap ins (usually on the PP) but the shot and overall use of the zone by Quinn is better than I see when watching Guenther. 

Keep in mind we only have 12 games of Guenther and a bunch of those were against really bad WHL teams so some of his tap ins and easier goals are just a product of being good on a good team, much like Quinn the previous year. That said, I find Quinn to be a little more dynamic in terms of how he creates offense. Granted Guenther is much younger for his draft class with a April bday versus September for Quinn. Jarvis BTW is a Feb bday so he is very comparable for Guenther in terms of age and league. 

Next I will spend some time talking about Beniers in what we shall call Part II: The Great Dylan v Matty Debate

[fiftyone]

I get the question about the potential "low" ceiling for Beniers, strictly talking about his offensive firepower.

Who would be the comparable player drafted in the top 5 of the last 10 years that had the same kind of talk? I looked back and can't really place it.

Ryan Strome? Sam Reinhart? Matthew Tkachuk? Nico Hischier? Is Hischier the best comp?

[Curt]

12 minutes ago, fiftyone said:

I get the question about the potential "low" ceiling for Beniers, strictly talking about his offensive firepower.

Who would be the comparable player drafted in the top 5 of the last 10 years that had the same kind of talk? I looked back and can't really place it.

Ryan Strome? Sam Reinhart? Matthew Tkachuk? Nico Hischier? Is Hischier the best comp?

When I read your question, my mind immediately jumped to Hischier.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, fiftyone said:

I get the question about the potential "low" ceiling for Beniers, strictly talking about his offensive firepower.

Who would be the comparable player drafted in the top 5 of the last 10 years that had the same kind of talk? I looked back and can't really place it.

Ryan Strome? Sam Reinhart? Matthew Tkachuk? Nico Hischier? Is Hischier the best comp?

Beniers reminds me of a better skating Reinhart in some ways. Part of the issue is that Beniers has always been young for the level he's played at. Last year in the USDP he was 17. This year in the NCAA he was 18. He should have been 18 and 19 respectively at those levels if he were developing typically. Dylan Holloway for example in his DY year was also a 17yr old NCAA guy and he only dropped 17 points in 35 games.

Brady Tkachuk would be a good comparison in terms of playing younger at each level than is typical. He also did the USHL at 17 and NCAA at 18.

Tkachuk: 0.885 USDP ppg and 0.775 NCAA ppg

Beniers: 0.932 USDP ppg and 1.0 NCAA ppg

... the weird part is the fact that Beniers keep raising his game no matter what level he goes too. That said it appears Tkachuk had a better U20 than Beniers but Tkachuk was a top line winger with Mitts while Beniers was a #2 shutdown center so different roles on those teams. 

[Buffalonill]

34 minutes ago, fiftyone said:

I get the question about the potential "low" ceiling for Beniers, strictly talking about his offensive firepower.

Who would be the comparable player drafted in the top 5 of the last 10 years that had the same kind of talk? I looked back and can't really place it.

Ryan Strome? Sam Reinhart? Matthew Tkachuk? Nico Hischier? Is Hischier the best comp?

Sean Couturier