2021 NHL Draft Rankings

[Hoss]

Just now, Thorny said:

Pre lotto?

I can think of two. 😂 

[Thorner]

I can only think of Dahlin, and Reinhart I think you could count. 

[Hoss]

Just now, Thorny said:

I can only think of Dahlin, and Reinhart I think you could count. 

But I will say I think Eichel still counts. We were all smashing our mouses to get to a website called “McEichel.” And technically there’s more Eichel in that title than McDavid. In fact, are we sure if wasn’t just Eichel sponsored by McDonalds the whole time?

[Thorner]

Just now, Hoss said:

But I will say I think Eichel still counts. We were all smashing our mouses to get to a website called “McEichel.” And technically there’s more Eichel in that title than McDavid. In fact, are we sure if wasn’t just Eichel sponsored by McDonalds the whole time?

But it's not really fair to include it IMO because in that year there were 2 guys that functioned as 1, then, going with your argument. It was more likely to happen. That would be fine if we were sitting with 2 in mind this year, but we are not 

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But it's not really fair to include it IMO because in that year there were 2 guys that functioned as 1, then, going with your argument. It was more likely to happen. That would be fine if we were sitting with 2 in mind this year, but we are not 

I’m counting it. We got result we wanted that year. Call my mom and yell at her if you disagree with the way I think because it’s her fault.

[SDS]

Just now, Hoss said:

I’m counting it. We got result we wanted that year. Call my mom and yell at her if you disagree with the way I think because it’s her fault.

Tim's visible disappointment at the lottery says otherwise.

7 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I can think of two. 😂 

Kassian?

[Crusader1969]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I didn't suggest anything. You are the only one dealing in certainty, here. 

Anyways, should be a fun draft. Hopefully they can land Beniers. 

We'll see on draft day! 

at least we can all agree that they need to draft a forward.

Only fly in the ointment i can see at this time is Brandt Clark, if you think he is a Jamie Drysdale/Makar/Quinn type who can contribute to an NHL club much quicker than the Hedman/Dahlin/Nurse mold of D that can take a few years.

[Thorner]

So in my mind, i go: 2 times on 7. (that we got the "guy we wanted") that's already technically therefore something unlikely to happen on it's face. Then mentally I combine that with the probability that player, if they are picked, ends up better than the player we could deal the pick for. And, is it so much better that it's worth the sacrifice in timeline? 

To my mind there is a lot to be said for certainty, in this situation, especially given an honest evaluation of past results. It's somewhat ironic in the context of this conversation, as there is zero certainty in this hypothetical as we have no idea what may be offered for our 1st round pick, right now. Pre lotto. I just think on the surface "trade" looks like a reasonable course of action. 

- - - 

This comes back to the thing I was saying with Liger re: Raty. I said it would be beneficial for us if he was in the conversation, I wasn't creating an argument for why he was. In truth, and I've said this before, I don't really delve much into the prospects at this time of year and analyze and formulate opinions - there are already those here one being Liger who are a vast wealth of knowledge on the matter and have such a strong aptitude for it that I honestly don't feel I need to. I just read here.

I have some formed opinions on some conceptual ideas for the draft based on my take on the roster, something I do delve hellishly deep into. I think we need to draft centres. I came to the thread with that viewpoint to see if those who actually know the assets think they could make it happen or not. I think it should inform the decision making process - but if the numbers are crunched and it's just not something that makes logical sense based on the layout of the draft in question, so be it. I won't argue it further as I have no basis to. 

Above I mentioned trading it as well, but again, it's theory - I think there's a logical argument to be made that it's an avenue we should seriously (not the usual lip service) explore, but if the return isn't there it's not there. I'm not as brushed up on potential trade targets from other teams, there are those around here who are. 

17 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I’m counting it. We got result we wanted that year. Call my mom and yell at her if you disagree with the way I think because it’s her fault.

the reason I can't count it in the "2 on 7" (and have it be 3) that I started the post with is because it was an easier result to win that year, being 2 players, so it doesn't bear relevance to the situation this year, with in the context of the original argument was there being only one guy, Beniers. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

I made the mistake of reading Quinn's profile again... #overdrafted #reach

I have no doubt that the Sabres either use very little or the wrong analytics when analyzing prospects. 

[Hoss]

23 minutes ago, SDS said:

Tim's visible disappointment at the lottery says otherwise.

Tim isn’t a poster on this board.

[Thorner]

Just now, Hoss said:

Tim isn’t a poster on this board.

 You can argue we got the guy we wanted and it's valid. 

My point is merely that it's inarguable it's easier to "get the guy you wanted" when you want 2, instead of 1 

[Hoss]

Just now, Thorny said:

 You can argue we got the guy we wanted and it's valid. 

My point is merely that it's inarguable it's easier to "get the guy you wanted" when you want 2, instead of 1 

It might be “easy” here to in that we’ll be picking 1/2 and there’s no consensus so there’s a pretty good chance we’ll have a chance to take Beniers on draft day.

[Thorner]

Just now, Hoss said:

It might be “easy” here to in that we’ll be picking 1/2 and there’s no consensus so there’s a pretty good chance we’ll have a chance to take Beniers on draft day.

Well, 1, 2, or 3

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

It might be “easy” here to in that we’ll be picking 1/2 and there’s no consensus so there’s a pretty good chance we’ll have a chance to take Beniers on draft day.

I could look at 2014 and say it was "more likely" we'd get Reino because you could only fall one spot and we knew Ekblad was the consensus 1 overall that year. We were pretty certain we'd have our pick of the forwards actually if we finished last. 

My intention wasn't to delve into each year like that, it was just a quick surface level "did we get the guy, when we were hoping for 1 guy" thought. 

[dudacek]

Interesting question being posed here. For me:

• 2020: wanted Rossi to drop, but I did like Quinn if he wasn't available. Expected them to take Sanderson
• 2019: wanted Zegras, was fine with Cozens dropping. Expected them to take Caufield
• 2018: wanted Dahlin. Sadly, winning the lottery was one of the more exciting Sabres moments of the past decade for me.
• 2017: curiously don't remember being into the draft that year. Had no faves or expectations. Was fine with Casey because he seemed ranked higher than 8.
• 2016: wanted Juolevi, Sergachev or McAvoy. Expected Sergachev. Was not happy with the Nylander pick, justified it as Murray picking Jack's winger.
• 2015: no surprises here
• 2014: Badly wanted Reinhart. Expected Draisaitl because Murray heavy hockey.
• 2013: wanted Bo Horvat or Elias Lindholm at 8, was hoping Lazar or Domi at 16. Expected Horvat. Was very happy we ended up with Rasmus and Nikita.
• 2012: don't remember who I wanted or expected, but I do remember being very happy we ended up with maybe the best offensive, and the best 2-way centres available in Grigs and Girgs. 😄 😧

fully confessing that for me the draft is pretty much a fantasy fun exercise based on write-ups, highlights, Sabrespace, and the WJC

Edited March 31, 2021 by dudacek

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Interesting question being posed here. For me:

• 2020: wanted Rossi to drop, but I did like Quinn if he wasn't available. Expected them to take Sanderson
• 2019: wanted Zegras, was fine with Cozens dropping. Expected them to take Caufield
• 2018: wanted Dahlin. Sadly, winning the lottery was one of the more exciting Sabres moments of the past decade for me.
• 2017: curiously don't remember being into the draft that year. Had no faves or expectations. Was fine with Casey because he seemed ranked higher than 8.
• 2016: wanted Juolevi, Sergachev or McAvoy. Expected Sergachev. Was not happy with the Nylander pick, justified it as Murray picking Jack's winger.
• 2015: no surprises here
• 2014: Badly wanted Reinhart. Expected Draisaitl because Murray heavy hockey.
• 2013: wanted Bo Horvat or Elias Lindholm at 8, was hoping Lazar or Domi at 16. Expected Horvat. Was very happy we ended up with Rasmus and Nikita.

fully confessing that for me the draft is pretty much a fantasy fun exercise based on write-ups, highlights, Sabrespace, and the WJC

Honestly it was an incredible moment. Dahlin could bust and I think I'll still fondly remember that day. So much of it was honestly the feeling of winning. Can't be taken away. A small win, to your point, but it didn't feel small at the time, so...

- - - 

I feel the same about your "confession" bit, but maybe a more fair term would be felt. I admit after being near the bottom so many years in a row the shine wears off a little for me. I'll watch every second of day 2 where nothing happens cause I'm obsessed.....but it'll actually be more fun when we are picking in the 20s, to start, on day 1

Edited March 31, 2021 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Honestly it was an incredible moment. Dahlin could bust and I think I'll still fondly remember that day. So much of it was honestly the feeling of winning. Can't be taken away. A small win, to your point, but it didn't feel small at the time, so...

- - - 

I feel the same about your "confession" bit, but maybe a more fair term would be felt. I admit after being near the bottom so many years in a row the shine wears off a little for me. I'll watch every second of day 2 where nothing happens cause I'm obsessed.....but it'll actually be more fun when we are picking in the 20s, to start, on day 1

He won't

[LGR4GM]

The next true generational player is currently destroying the WHL. Connor Bedard for the 2023 draft currently playing as a 15yr old in the WHL has 8g, 11a in 10 games. 

[Crusader1969]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The next true generational player is currently destroying the WHL. Connor Bedard for the 2023 draft currently playing as a 15yr old in the WHL has 8g, 11a in 10 games. 

good god, lets hope we are talking about him constantly as Sabre fans 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

good god, lets hope we are talking about him constantly as Sabre fans 

Unless something major changes, I think we will. A real head coach would be a good start but the problems are deeper than that. A team dumb enough to prioritize the PK over finding good 5v5 players is equivalent to shooting yourself in the chest but saying you can walk it off because your legs aren't injured. 

[Crusader1969]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Unless something major changes, I think we will. A real head coach would be a good start but the problems are deeper than that. A team dumb enough to prioritize the PK over finding good 5v5 players is equivalent to shooting yourself in the chest but saying you can walk it off because your legs aren't injured. 

I'll say the improvement in Goaltending (UPL and Ullmark??), Dahlin and some of the other young players will lift this team to be a playoff contender by then.

 

Sorry if this was already Posted 

What happened to Raty, who was the odds on #1 coming into the year.

https://dobberprospects.com/2021/03/26/what-happened-to-the-aatu-raty-of-2018-19/

 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I'll say the improvement in Goaltending (UPL and Ullmark??), Dahlin and some of the other young players will lift this team to be a playoff contender by then.

 

Sorry if this was already Posted 

What happened to Raty, who was the odds on #1 coming into the year.

https://dobberprospects.com/2021/03/26/what-happened-to-the-aatu-raty-of-2018-19/

 

The numbers have me extremely concerned with Raty. You go to the tape and there is just a lack of agency to how he plays. 

[Crusader1969]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The numbers have me extremely concerned with Raty. You go to the tape and there is just a lack of agency to how he plays. 

he seems like the antithesis of Berniers - afraid of the high traffic areas and unwilling to use his physical advantages.  

Scratch him from any Sabres draft boards

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

he seems like the antithesis of Berniers - afraid of the high traffic areas and unwilling to use his physical advantages.  

Scratch him from any Sabres draft boards

Which is weird because that's not how he was described last year. 

[LGR4GM]

This sums up my major issue with Raty I think. 

Quote

two things that have left him struggling in a professional league that requires as much mental skill as it does physical skill: Scanning for options and making smart plays with the puck on his stick, and being an option for his teammates with the puck off his stick.

He makes some awful and baffling decision with the puck on his stick and he kinda floats especially offensively when the puck isn't on his stick. It is like he isn't really sure where he fits or how to adjust to other players moving around unless he has the puck and is attacking or they have the puck and he is going to take it from them. There's a very 2d type of thinking and by that I mean, sees the puck (either on his stick or with opponent) and drives the puck (either on his stick or retreival from opponent). He is missing that 3d thought process of "okay, the puck is on my stick which means this defender and that defender will react like this, I know my winger is here and moving into that space, if I pass to that space then where do I need to get to." 

I think this might be why his game has been hard to analyze for scouts and the like. When he has the puck he looks good and when he is backchecking to get the puck he looks good. The problem is when he isn't in direct pursuit with or to get the puck. 

Take all this with a grain of salt as Raty plays in a league that I have very little access too so what I see are highlights and other analysis. 

They use this play and I agree it just looks off. I think part of the reason for me is that if Beniers was in the same position, the second the defender edges to the outside, Beniers is hitting his turbo and driving the net. Raty is looking outside (why the defender starts to slide that way) and seemingly ignores the play development to continue going that way. The other important part about this clip is that once Raty hits that blueline, he stops skating and is glide mode. This wouldn't be a problem except there's time and opportunity to skate, it isn't like he is making dekes or something so he get's distracted. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by LGR4GM