Keeping Hall Long-term?

[Carmel Corn]

7 hours ago, Kruppstahl said:

He won't be back; he's here because a bunch of circumstances neatly fell together at the right time.  This will be a 1 year thing.

Enjoy him while he is here.

 

This!  Keeping Hall here is not going to happen with KO's and Skinner's contracts.  Unless GM KA can pull off a deal to trade KO's salary for another player on an expiring contract, but not likely.  I am hopeful that we will want to hang on to Skinner based on a rebound season for him.

[Broken Ankles]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

By the way; I don't think my 210 point prediction is way out of line

The Sabres will need all 210 if Hutts is still minding net in 2021. 

[dudacek]

What are people expecting from Hall this year?

I'm looking for 25-30 goals and 40-50 assists (pro-rated).

That's well within his range historically, although he tends to get hurt and has only hit 30 goals once and 50 assists twice.

A career year seems unlikely given he's already won an MVP, but the stars seem properly aligned for him to come close.

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

What are people expecting from Hall this year?

I'm looking for 25-30 goals and 40-50 assists (pro-rated).

That's well within his range historically, although he tends to get hurt and has only hit 30 goals once and 50 assists twice.

A career year seems unlikely given he's already won an MVP, but the stars seem properly aligned for him to come close.

If he plays with Jack, he won't beat his personal best, but he'll make us wonder if he's going to (pro rated.)

 

G.. D... I miss hockey. 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

What are people expecting from Hall this year?

I'm looking for 25-30 goals and 40-50 assists (pro-rated).

That's well within his range historically, although he tends to get hurt and has only hit 30 goals once and 50 assists twice.

A career year seems unlikely given he's already won an MVP, but the stars seem properly aligned for him to come close.

If he & Jack both stay healthy, would expect for a full season just about 30 goals & 55+ assists for 85 points.  Expecting Eichel to be on a 100+ point pace.  Olofsson very close to 70 points with anywhere from 30-40 goals.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, SwampD said:

If he plays with Jack, he won't beat his personal best, but he'll make us wonder if he's going to (pro rated.)

 

G.. D... I miss hockey. 

I feel you. In the past few weeks I've re-watched Sabres games from last season and streamed team Canada WJC training camp scrimmages.

There will be Sabres on the ice within a month, even if it's only for training camp.

[nfreeman]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think there are some assumptions being made about player value that might be faulty.

• Sergachev got $4.8 over 3, DeAngelo got $4.8 over 2. Weren't they this off-season's best Dahlin comparables?
• Mantha got $5.7 over 4, Toffoli $4.2 over 4, Anderson $5.5 over 7. Aren't they of similar stature to Reinhart?
• Nobody else offered Hall more than $5 or $6 this year. Pietrangelo was one of the best UFAs ever. He got $8.8

If Reinhart is getting 7, Dahlin 8, and Hall 10 next summer, they aren't only going to need career years, they are going to have to be signing in a considerably more bullish market than the one we just saw.

Yes indeed, but I think it’s pretty likely to be somewhat more bullish and some owners will probably be substantially more bullish.

Ultimately I think Reino will get his $6MM to $6.5MM per year, either next summer or the following summer, and either from the Sabres or elsewhere.  He hasn’t been shy about signing short-term deals and will likely do so again if he thinks it’s the path to the big contract.

The bigger variable is Dahlin.  It’s not clear yet whether or when he will explode into dominance, or what his risk tolerance is on waiting for a big contract. 

I just think the most likely outcome is that either Hall or Reino gets a big contract from the Sabres and the other one gets it elsewhere.  

[LTS]

23 hours ago, steveoath said:

I cant see how we would be able to keep Hall with KO still on the books, sadly. What would it take for the Kraken to take okposo?

A 1st round pick and potentially a mid-tier prospect?

[dudacek]

Vogl did this exercise in the Athletic.

https://theathletic.com/2211688/2020/11/23/buffalo-sabres-salary-cap/?article_source=search&search_query=\\"Taylor hall\\"

He signed Hall for $9, Sam for $7.2 , Dahlin for $6.2, Jokiharju for $2.8 and a UFA goalie for $4ish and came up with this lineup for 2021/22:

Hall-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Cozens-Thompson
Olofsson-Eakin-Quinn
Girgensons-Lazar-Okposo
Ruotsalainen, Oglevie

Dahlin-Ristolainen
Samuelsson-Jokiharju
Bryson-Miller
Borgen

UFA No. 1
Luukkonen

Edited December 3, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Vogl did this exercise in the Athletic.

https://theathletic.com/2211688/2020/11/23/buffalo-sabres-salary-cap/?article_source=search&search_query=\\"Taylor hall\\"

He signed Hall for $9, Sam for $7.2 , Dahlin for $6.2, Jokiharju for $2.8 and a UFA goalie for $4ish and came up with this lineup for 2021/22:

Hall-Eichel-Reinhart
Skinner-Cozens-Thompson
Olofsson-Eakin-Quinn
Girgensons-Lazar-Okposo
Ruotsalainen, Oglevie

Dahlin-Ristolainen
Samuelsson-Jokiharju
Bryson-Miller
Borgen

UFA No. 1
Luukkonen

I doubt UPL will be ready for an NHL role.  Not sure Samuelsson will be either, but it's a nice hope.  I also having Thompson as a RW2 is a problem especially if we aren't sure what he'll bring this year much less next season.

I think it is much more likely that Olofsson is the RW2.  Also I can see R2 and Mitts taking jobs.

Hall EIchel Reinhart

Skinner Cozens Olofsson

Mitts R2 Thompson/KO/Quinn

Girgensons Eakin Thompson/KO

Having such a young 3rd line could be a huge risk, but it's worked for us in the past.  

Also I doubt Seattle takes Girgensons.  Eakin is possible but unlikely.  It's more likely they take Miller to run their PP or a prospect like Mitts or Asplund if left available.

On defense, I can see McCabe returning and Montour if Risto is traded. 

In goal, this seemed like the off-season to grab a goaltender and KA ignored the position at the NHL level.  Not sure how he fills that position other then Ullmark having a good season and returning with a better backup.

Edited December 3, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I doubt UPL will be ready for an NHL role.  Not sure Samuelsson will be either, but it's a nice hope.  I also having Thompson as a RW2 is a problem especially if we aren't sure what he'll bring this year much less next season.

I think it is much more likely that Olofsson is the RW2.  Also I can see R2 and Mitts taking jobs.

Hall EIchel Reinhart

Skinner Cozens Olofsson

Mitts R2 Thompson/KO/Quinn

Girgensons Eakin Thompson/KO

Having such a young 3rd line could be a huge risk, but it's worked for us in the past.

Why put 3 playmakers on the 1st line and 2 goal scorers on the 2nd line?

Flipping Reinhart & Olofsson makes more sense.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Why put 3 playmakers on the 1st line and 2 goal scorers on the 2nd line?

Flipping Reinhart & Olofsson makes more sense.

That is what we have entering this season.  Hall, Eichel, Reinhart is what is penciled in for this season although I agree I can see Reinhart moving to the second line this season and next to help get Skinner going.  The biggest issue is that RK doesn't seem to want that.  

Also Skinner Staal and Olofsson is the likely second line this season.  I don't see Skinner Cozens Olofsson as that different, but again I agree that neither Skinner or Olofsson are the greatest passers, but Olofsson is a better passer and creator then he has been given credit for.  It hasn't really been his role since his shot is so dangerous.  

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That is what we have entering this season.  Hall, Eichel, Reinhart is what is penciled in for this season although I agree I can see Reinhart moving to the second line this season and next to help get Skinner going.  The biggest issue is that RK doesn't seem to want that.  

Also Skinner Staal and Olofsson is the likely second line this season.  I don't see Skinner Cozens Olofsson as that different, but again I agree that neither Skinner or Olofsson are the greatest passers, but Olofsson is a better passer and creator then he has been given credit for.  It hasn't really been his role since his shot is so dangerous.  

That you have Reinhart pencilled in on the top line does not mean that Krueger has him pencilled in there.  Your continued repetition of this does not make it so.

[dudacek]

Ralph was concerned enough about Skinner's defence on the 2nd line that he glued Sobotka on the other flank to compensate. I will be shocked if he uses Olofsson and Skinner together to start the season, or for any significant run.

Hot take: Mattias Samuelsson gets time in Buffalo this year, and will be part of the reason either Risto or McCabe is gone this summer. There is a significant gap between how he is perceived by the fanbase and by the Sabres brass.

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, Taro T said:

That you have Reinhart pencilled in on the top line does not mean that Krueger has him pencilled in there.  Your continued repetition of this does not make it so.

It's not me penciling him there it's RK.  He insisted on keeping Sam stapled to Jack last season even when Skinner was struggling on the second line.  Hall came here to play with Jack.  What other conclusion can you draw if Hall came to play with Jack and RK insists on keeping Samson stapled to Jack?

Remember the switch RK made when we acquired Kahun last year was to swap Olofsson with Skinner, creating a Skinner, Jack, Reinhart line with a VO Kahun, MoJo line.   Vogl also has the same top line.

Edited December 3, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

47 minutes ago, Taro T said:

That you have Reinhart pencilled in on the top line does not mean that Krueger has him pencilled in there.  Your continued repetition of this does not make it so.

Kreuger likely has Reinhart penciled on the first line with Jack because he already knows that he fits in with him. The coach could move Reinhart to the second line to upgrade that line but why tamper with a Jack/Reinhart combo when he knows that it works? 

None of us knows for sure what the top two line combinations will be. I'm sure there could be some surprises with players such as Thompson and Cozens also in on the top two line mix. But if I had to make a calculated guess I would lean on the end product being the first line including Hall, Jack and Sam. 

Or to fairly conclude your guess is as good as anyone else's.  

[nfreeman]

Based on RK's choices last year, I too think the most likely spot for Reino is with Jack and Hall, although I too would much prefer to see Reino with Staal and Skinner.

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ralph was concerned enough about Skinner's defence on the 2nd line that he glued Sobotka on the other flank to compensate. I will be shocked if he uses Olofsson and Skinner together to start the season, or for any significant run.

Hot take: Mattias Samuelsson gets time in Buffalo this year, and will be part of the reason either Risto or McCabe is gone this summer. There is a significant gap between how he is perceived by the fanbase and by the Sabres brass.

I'd love for Samuelsson come in and lay claim to a job sooner then later.  If the Sabres are out of the playoff chase late in the season, I can certainly see Samuelsson getting a look see.

[Taro T]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's not me penciling him there it's RK.  He insisted on keeping Sam stapled to Jack last season even when Skinner was struggling on the second line.  Hall came here to play with Jack.  What other conclusion can you draw if Hall came to play with Jack and RK insists on keeping Samson stapled to Jack?

Remember the switch RK made when we acquired Kahun last year was to swap Olofsson with Skinner, creating a Skinner, Jack, Reinhart line with a VO Kahun, MoJo line.   Vogl also has the same top line.

So, because last season, when Reinhart was the best piece to keep with Eichel, Krueger kept him with Eichel, Krueger will necessarily keep him with Eichel even though there have since been 2 MAJOR roster adds, one of which is an even better playmaker than Reinhart and that better piece HAS been pencilled in on that line?  Seriously?

You are also neglecting that Krueger never had Olofsson & Skinner on the same line but he nearly always gave Eichel a goal scorer (when 1 was available).  The only time he didn't was when Skinner came back & Olofsson was still out.

No matter how often you might state that it's Krueger setting those lines at this point and not you, that simply isn't true.  Krueger has said Eichel will play with Hall.  He did not state who their linemate will be.  ALL speculation about that 3rd linemate is simply that, speculation, even when speculated by an authority as knowing as John Vogl.

And you placing 2 goal scorers on a line with either Staal or Cozens doesn't mean it is what Krueger has pencilled in either.  Especially when he's never had them together in the past and there is no indication he'd want to saddle a C with that much defensive baggage either.  Krueger places a great deal of value on defensively responsible play, but we're going to see a 2nd year (at most) C out with 1 winger that is bad in his own 3nd and another who is adequate.  Maybe it does happen, but not seeing that one either.  And chalking it up to 'well, Krueger likes Eichel & Reinhart together' isn't compelling logic for that combo either.

Have provided the reasoning for why Olofsson (or other goal scorer, though he tops the list) should be on that top line & why a 2nd playmaker makes sense for line 2.  Not seeing a rationale for going 3 playmakers then 2 goal scorers for the top 2 lines.

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Kreuger likely has Reinhart penciled on the first line with Jack because he already knows that he fits in with him. The coach could move Reinhart to the second line to upgrade that line but why tamper with a Jack/Reinhart combo when he knows that it works? 

None of us knows for sure what the top two line combinations will be. I'm sure there could be some surprises with players such as Thompson and Cozens also in on the top two line mix. But if I had to make a calculated guess I would lean on the end product being the first line including Hall, Jack and Sam. 

Or to fairly conclude your guess is as good as anyone else's.  

EVERYBODY is speculating about the 1RW and about the 2nd line, and the justification for saying it will be Reinart on line 1 and Olofsson & Skinner on line 2 is 'well, that's how Krueger has them pencilled in.'

HTF do you, does anybody else, know that when Krueger has never SAID that?  We don't.  But GA's logic of 'well that is what Krueger wants' is opinion with no factual basis.

And, it is fine that he believes that.  And, he might even be right.  But to give as the reason for expecting that as 'well, that's what Ralph has pencilled in' is not convincing when Krueger has never actually told us that.

 

Edited December 3, 2020 by Taro T

[dudacek]

As usual way too much emphasis on line hierarchies here, when it should be about how and how much a line is used.

18:23 22:06 20:38

16:29 17:09 14:16

13:48 12:46 12:55

13:48 14:54 12:51

That's how Krueger used his lines last year.

A deeper roster with a different mix should change that.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Taro T

The funny thing is your arguing with me, yet my "speculation" is nearly identical to Vogl's except I put a more proven goal scorer on Cozen's line then he had with Thompson.  Thompson isn't a play maker, but a scoring hopefully power forward, but he isn't half the skater that Cozens and Skinner are.  I opted for a more proven player that has the wheels to keep up.  Not sure why that is so controversial to you. 

This myth that Reinhart is some great playmaker is not born out in the stats.   He produces less assists then Jack (1.34 per goal vs Jack at 1.45).  He also has less primary assists over the last couple of seasons.  Good playmaker and passer?  Sure!  Great playmaker, not so much.  In fact I'd argue his goal scoring has been more important to the Sabres then creating.  He has scored 20+ goals in 4 of his 5 NHL seasons and has finished 1st, 3rd and 2nd in goals for the team over the last 3 years. 

[Marvin]

On 12/2/2020 at 11:27 AM, PASabreFan said:

Do we want to see him play first? I'm asking for a friend.

But, carrion by all means.

Which Carry On: Sergeant, Nurse, Teacher, Constable, Regardless, Cruising, Cabby, Jack, Spying, Cowboy. Screaming, Don't Lose Your Head, Follow that Camel, Doctor, Up the Khyber, Camping, Again Doctor, Up the Jungle, Loving, Henry, At Your Convenience, Matron, Abroad, Girls, Dick, Behind, England, Emmanuel, or Columbus?

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@Taro T

The funny thing is your arguing with me, yet my "speculation" is nearly identical to Vogl's except I put a more proven goal scorer on Cozen's line then he had with Thompson.  Thompson isn't a play maker, but a scoring hopefully power forward, but he isn't half the skater that Cozens and Skinner are.  I opted for a more proven player that has the wheels to keep up.  Not sure why that is so controversial to you. 

This myth that Reinhart is some great playmaker is not born out in the stats.   He produces less assists then Jack (1.34 per goal vs Jack at 1.45).  He also has less primary assists over the last couple of seasons.  Good playmaker and passer?  Sure!  Great playmaker, not so much.  In fact I'd argue his goal scoring has been more important to the Sabres then creating.  He has scored 20+ goals in 4 of his 5 NHL seasons and has finished 1st, 3rd and 2nd in goals for the team over the last 3 years. 

Well, if John Vogel says it, you must be right.  🤨

A significant portion of Reinhart's goals are scored on deflections & also on PP rebounds.  He has excellent hand eye coordination & that helps him & the Sabres a lot.  But as for having a good SHOT, he really doesn't.  It's very accurate, but not particularly powerful.  That hand eye coordination of his when away from the opposing team's net is why his passing is above average & why people consider him a playmaker primarily.

How is his not being as good of a playmaker as Eichel is a knock on his playmaker?  Eichel is the best playmaker this team has had since LaFontaine.

He ISN'T a great playmaker, but he is good to very good and will either be the team's 3rd or 4th best forward at it this year, depending on whether Staal is rejuvenated in his new surroundings or not.

You've yet to make a compelling case for the Sabres being better with Reinhart on the top line than they will be with him on the 2nd line (or, even, depending upon the opponent, having him drive a 3rd scoring line).  Your argument is now 'that's what John Vogel would do.`

If you don't have a compelling reason for putting Sam there, that's fine.  And, Krueger MIGHT go that way when all is said & done.  But really wanted to understand why YOU think he should be there as you clearly spend a lot of time thinking about this stuff & seem to be a bright guy.  But basing that on the roster decisions made last season for a team which (depending on injuries) had 2-4 fewer top 6 skaters than this team will have (and possibly even more should a kid or 2 pan out) seem dubious. 

 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

EVERYBODY is speculating about the 1RW and about the 2nd line, and the justification for saying it will be Reinart on line 1 and Olofsson & Skinner on line 2 is 'well, that's how Krueger has them pencilled in.'

HTF do you, does anybody else, know that when Krueger has never SAID that?  We don't.  But GA's logic of 'well that is what Krueger wants' is opinion with no factual basis.

And, it is fine that he believes that.  And, he might even be right.  But to give as the reason for expecting that as 'well, that's what Ralph has pencilled in' is not convincing when Krueger has never actually told us that.

 

He is speculating as is every one else is to the makeup of the lines. The first line that he believes the coach will very likely assemble (as I do) is not a declaration but an opinion.  His opinion is not a far fetched opinion but a reasonable opinion/assumption based on how the first line was assembled last year. I don't know why you are getting so irritated with an opinion given on a hockey forum which is a platform for giving opinions.  I also like to add that I'm not trying to stoke the flames here.