2020/21 preview and expectations thread

[dudacek]

We will be better.

Best case scenario, I see us battling the Flyers for the division title.

More likely is we end up battling the Rangers and a fading team in the 5-7 slots, ahead of NJ.

I think the division is tough, but not invulnerable.

I think the hockey world very much overrates the Rangers who were stuffed full of career year players last year and will be counting on a rookie goalie. Islanders aren’t world beaters, but Trotz guarantees they won’t be an easy out. I also think it is pretty much guaranteed given the makeup of the division that one or more of Bos, Was or Pit fades.

I think we will be fast, maybe the fastest team in the division. I think that, plus the talents of Hall, Eichel, and an emerging Dahlin will make this the most entertaining Sabres team in a long time. I am also very interested in what we might get from Staal, Skinner, Cozens, Thompson Montour and Ullmark.

We have a lot of questions, but also the potential to answer them. If I were a betting man, I’d say we are more 2004 than 2006, but on paper this is the best roster we’ve had in a decade.

I miss Sabres hockey. Cant wait to get started.

[steveoath]

I think a lot will depend on Skinner and Ullmark.  Hopefully Staal can get Skinner firing again. With any luck we get an improving Linus too.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

I think a lot will depend on Skinner and Ullmark.  Hopefully Staal can get Skinner firing again. With any luck we get an improving Linus too.

You've identified two players who will be key players this season. I thought that last year Ullmark made the jump up and looked like a # 1 goalie. When he got hurt this team wasn't the same. He needs to continue on with his progression. Playing on a line with a genuine 2C should put Skinner in a position to succeed. Having a quality second line isn't something we had last year.  

The Sabres have had a recent history of starting off strong and then taking a plunge and not being able to regain its footing. I'm sure that was due to a lack of depth. It appears that we have added some depth that will give us a greater margin for error. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

You've identified two players who will be key players this season. I thought that last year Ullmark made the jump up and looked like a # 1 goalie. When he got hurt this team wasn't the same. He needs to continue on with his progression. Playing on a line with a genuine 2C should put Skinner in a position to succeed. Having a quality second line isn't something we had last year.  

The Sabres have had a recent history of starting off strong and then taking a plunge and not being able to regain its footing. I'm sure that was due to a lack of depth. It appears that we have added some depth that will give us a greater margin for error. 

Well, I thought he made a jump too, but only to "bottom 10 NHL starter" status.  I will say though that he has improved every year and it's not impossible that he makes as big a jump this coming season as he did last season, and if he does, he will be in "good enough to be the starter on a real NHL playoff team" status.

[erickompositör72]

Am I the only person who thinks Dylan Cozens will be the biggest (pleasant) surprise? Everything I see of this kid looks like someone who has the physical presence, the skill/speed, the hockey sense, and the drive to be an instant success in the NHL

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:

Am I the only person who thinks Dylan Cozens will be the biggest (pleasant) surprise? Everything I see of this kid looks like someone who has the physical presence, the skill/speed, the hockey sense, and the drive to be an instant success in the NHL

No you Aren’t the only person who has ever had very high expectations of a 1st round draft pick. I personally always have lower expectations on a rookies 1st NHL season. And more times than not, it’s pretty on par with my expectation, and I’m not disappointed and sometimes I’m even surprised and very impressed with their first season. Meh ... But I understand, that mindset isn’t for everyone and they expect (different than want) a 1st round draft pick to be in the conversation for the Calder. 

[erickompositör72]

21 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

No you Aren’t the only person who has ever had very high expectations of a 1st round draft pick. I personally always have lower expectations on a rookies 1st NHL season. And more times than not, it’s pretty on par with my expectation, and I’m not disappointed and sometimes I’m even surprised and very impressed with their first season. Meh ... But I understand, that mindset isn’t for everyone and they expect (different than want) a 1st round draft pick to be in the conversation for the Calder. 

I don't know what pleasure you take in completely decontextualizing my post—I'm assuming talking about 1st round draft picks makes you bitter—but this thread is about expectations, and Cozens name hasn't come up much. I see something special about his game, which I've specified. If you don't feel the same, please do me the courtesy of addressing those specific elements I pointed out, rather than reducing my post and dismissing it.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, erickompositör72 said:

Am I the only person who thinks Dylan Cozens will be the biggest (pleasant) surprise? Everything I see of this kid looks like someone who has the physical presence, the skill/speed, the hockey sense, and the drive to be an instant success in the NHL

I will be surprised if Cozens doesn’t put up a prorated 35-40 points, but even if he doesn’t he is going to be a fan favourite because of his non-stop motor. The kid can fly.

[Thorner]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

We will be better.

Best case scenario, I see us battling the Flyers for the division title.

More likely is we end up battling the Rangers and a fading team in the 5-7 slots, ahead of NJ.

I think the division is tough, but not invulnerable.

I think the hockey world very much overrates the Rangers who were stuffed full of career year players last year and will be counting on a rookie goalie. Islanders aren’t world beaters, but Trotz guarantees they won’t be an easy out. I also think it is pretty much guaranteed given the makeup of the division that one or more of Bos, Was or Pit fades.

I think we will be fast, maybe the fastest team in the division. I think that, plus the talents of Hall, Eichel, and an emerging Dahlin will make this the most entertaining Sabres team in a long time. I am also very interested in what we might get from Staal, Skinner, Cozens, Thompson Montour and Ullmark.

We have a lot of questions, but also the potential to answer them. If I were a betting man, I’d say we are more 2004 than 2006, but on paper this is the best roster we’ve had in a decade.

I miss Sabres hockey. Cant wait to get started.

If I am reading this correctly, am I to assume you think it's more likely we *miss* the playoffs?

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If I am reading this correctly, am I to assume you think it's more likely we *miss* the playoffs?

Yes.

[Zamboni]

36 minutes ago, erickompositör72 said:

I don't know what pleasure you take in completely decontextualizing my post—I'm assuming talking about 1st round draft picks makes you bitter—but this thread is about expectations, and Cozens name hasn't come up much. I see something special about his game, which I've specified. If you don't feel the same, please do me the courtesy of addressing those specific elements I pointed out, rather than reducing my post and dismissing it.

Didn’t dismiss it at all. Yikes.... 🤨

Sorry you took it that way. 

[erickompositör72]

5 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Didn’t dismiss it at all. Yikes.... 🤨

Sorry you took it that way. 

My bad. I thought you were reducing a genuine excitement about particular aspects of a players game to generic expectations about 1st rounders

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I thought he made a jump too, but only to "bottom 10 NHL starter" status.  I will say though that he has improved every year and it's not impossible that he makes as big a jump this coming season as he did last season, and if he does, he will be in "good enough to be the starter on a real NHL playoff team" status.

Your comments on where Ullmark was as a player last year are fair. But as you noted he has improved every year, and it is his progression that I am counting on. There is also the context that our goalies played in. The soft goal that is let in is greatly magnified when the team struggles to score. On the other hand when a soft goal is allowed  on a team that has a better ability to score can more easily overcome the soft goal. So the goalie limitations aren't so apparent and consequential. Or to put it in arithmetic terms the plusses elsewhere compensate for the minus at the backstop. 

[Brawndo]

On 12/19/2020 at 8:24 AM, LGR4GM said:

Does Okposo live here? Ik he has kids so I was just curious. 

Good for that group. 

Yes, he is actually the only Current  Sabre to live in WNY Year Round.

 

[DarthEbriate]

I don't like our division. I was hoping for a Great Lakes Division of: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Detroit, Chicago, and Minnesota, and throw in Boston for good measure. You know... so we could win our division.

But. This one is going to be all the sweeter when we qualify on the strength of a renewed Skinner, a reborn Staal, a Cozens-for-Calder-push, a Dahlin-gets-a-few-Norris-votes eyebrow raise, and the Hall-Eichel-Reino onslaught on terrified goalies.

Start fast again (third year in a row) and this time the secondary scoring keeps it going. Let's go, Buffalo!

(Expectation: 4th place in the new division... squeaking into the playoffs)

[PerreaultForever]

I think a lot of this season will depend on how motivated players are. That goes for all teams. How many guys will have Tukka Rask mentalities (thinking of the bubble) and just want to fulfill their obligations and get back home and how many guys will be into it. With a lot of youth on the roster will they focus on hockey cause the world offers them few places to go party in or will they go out and get the whole team sick? It's going to be an odd one and I wonder how the league will handle it if any team has half their roster test positive at any time. Will the physicality be at an all time low? I'm thinking maybe.

One thing I think we know for sure, Marchand won't be allowed to lick anybody. 

[dudacek]

Look, I like Charlie McAvoy a lot. I wish Tim Murray would have listened to that scout that was lobbying hard for him instead of deciding he wanted Alex Nylander to be Jack's sidekick. But I'm not sure McAvoy is a legitimate number one defenceman.

And I'm pretty sure Brandon Carlo is not a 2, and Matt Grelczyk is not a 3.

The Boston Bruins current depth chart on D, compared to the Sabres:

• McAvoy Dahlin
• Carlo Ristolainen
• Grelczyk Montour
• Moore Jokiharju
• Lauzon McCabe
• Clifton Miller
• Vaakanainen Irwin
• Zboril Davidson

Should we really be feeling intimidated by a team with that defence corps? Are they really uncatchable?

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by dudacek

[I-90 W]

I was watching the Hockey Guy today on YouTube and when talking about the East, he pointed out that the top half of our division finished in the top 10 in winning percentage last season. Also with the fifth team finishing eleventh in the league in winning percentage.

Boston 1st

Washington 5th

Philly 6th

Pitt 7th

NYI 11th

Edited December 21, 2020 by I-90 W

[DarthEbriate]

56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Should we really be feeling intimidated by a team with that defence corps? Are they really uncatchable?

No, and yes. McAvoy is great. Pastrnak is excellent. And then it's reliant on an aged core group (Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci - and Chara if he plays) playing a condensed season.

Chara may have only skated 20/game but it was an ice-tilting in the regular season because folks don't really run and pressure him and beat him up until you're into a series. Losing Krug is huge for their PP. From a recent Boston board meeting:

Cassidy Tagge: Until this Boston Station is fully operational, we are vulnerable. The Eichel Alliance is too well equipped. They're more dangerous than you realize.

Gen. Managio Sweeney: Dangerous to your skaters, Coach, not to this Boston Station.

Tagge: They're the same thing!

Sweeney: <nervously tugging at collar as though choking>

(And we all know how that turned out.)

[bunomatic]

56 games in 116 days. Basically a game every second day. The same is true of every team but for the teams relying on rooks to pull some weight or the teams with an aging core it could get dicey. And there will be injuries. That said I can’t wait till this gets going. 

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

No, and yes. McAvoy is great. Pastrnak is excellent. And then it's reliant on an aged core group (Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci - and Chara if he plays) playing a condensed season.

Chara may have only skated 20/game but it was an ice-tilting in the regular season because folks don't really run and pressure him and beat him up until you're into a series. Losing Krug is huge for their PP. From a recent Boston board meeting:

Cassidy Tagge: Until this Boston Station is fully operational, we are vulnerable. The Eichel Alliance is too well equipped. They're more dangerous than you realize.

Gen. Managio Sweeney: Dangerous to your skaters, Coach, not to this Boston Station.

Tagge: They're the same thing!

Sweeney: <nervously tugging at collar as though choking>

(And we all know how that turned out.)

It’s really going to be interesting how old guys come back from long layoffs. Will they best rested and rejuvenated or stiff and unmotivated?

Krecji is 34. Bergeron is 35. Rask is 33 and Halak 35. Chara is 43 and is 50/50 to return.

Pastrnak and Marchand are coming back from major surgeries and arent expected to be ready for the start of the season.

Im not sure what makes their bottom six guys like Ritchie and Wagner and Lindholm and Kuraly better than guys like Thompson and Lazar and Eakin and Girgensons.

The Bruins have great culture and are well-coached. Their forwards are deep. They will be tough to beat.

But they are vulnerable.

Edited December 22, 2020 by dudacek

[spndnchz]

2 hours ago, bunomatic said:

56 games in 116 days. Basically a game every second day. The same is true of every team but for the teams relying on rooks to pull some weight or the teams with an aging core it could get dicey. And there will be injuries. That said I can’t wait till this gets going. 

I think the first 12 games will suck   Simply because the players aren’t ready for it. And that may actually make some teams make the playoffs even though they may not win the last 2/3 of the season

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

I think the first 12 games will suck   Simply because the players aren’t ready for it. And that may actually make some teams make the playoffs even though they may not win the last 2/3 of the season

You're talking about the Sabres, aren't you?

😀

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Look, I like Charlie McAvoy a lot. I wish Tim Murray would have listened to that scout that was lobbying hard for him instead of deciding he wanted Alex Nylander to be Jack's sidekick. But I'm not sure McAvoy is a legitimate number one defenceman.

And I'm pretty sure Brandon Carlo is not a 2, and Matt Grelczyk is not a 3.

The Boston Bruins current depth chart on D, compared to the Sabres:

• McAvoy Dahlin
• Carlo Ristolainen
• Grelczyk Montour
• Moore Jokiharju
• Lauzon McCabe
• Clifton Miller
• Vaakanainen Irwin
• Zboril Davidson

Should we really be feeling intimidated by a team with that defence corps? Are they really uncatchable?

 

It's not their D, it's the way the whole team back checks and plays D, and their goaltending. We saw in the bubble, without Rask they were not all that.